| Romney | Obama | |
|---|---|---|
| Romney Best Case | 235 | 303 |
| Current Status | 206 | 332 |
| Obama Best Case | 205 | 333 |
The five poll average’s streak continues.
|
As election day approaches, the number of polls coming in each day has increased dramatically, and that means some states will be jiggling just from the higher volume of polling, although some of it may represent actual movement too. Today according to the five poll average, five states change categories today, and they all move toward the center, toward being more competitive. But when we look at them, it turns out none of these (with one possible exception) look like they will be in a position to make any difference in this race. Let’s take a look at each of them anyway:
Missouri had been trending further toward Romney, but the last poll looks like Obama may be gaining a bit of support there. It doesn’t matter though, Romney is going to win Missouri.
Wisconsin had bounced up to over a 5% Obama lead. It now falls below that level to a 4.5% Obama lead. This is close enough that I once again classify Wisconsin as “Lean Obama” and therefore a state that Romney could win. But of all the close states, this is the one with the second largest Obama lead. There are many closer states that are better Romney targets as he tries to claw his way to 270.
Ever since Thursday I have been mentioning the big ugly outlier in Virginia. Well, today it finally rolls off the five poll average. With this the average drops to a 3.6% Obama lead. Virginia would never have left the “close state” category without the outlier, but even without the outlier, Obama has been making gains in Virginia. A week ago all the polling indicated a tied race in Virginia. No longer. It is still close, but now Obama has a clear lead. Of the states changing status today, Virginia is currently the closest, and it is also the only one with a history of actually being very close. At the moment, Virginia isn’t close enough compared to the other close states to actually be part of Romney’s “easiest path to victory” which I’ll cover later in the post, but given the history of polling in the state, it could easily get closer again before we are done, so it still has a chance of making a difference in the race if Romney can win it. This state is “getting closer” only because the outlier is rolling off the average though. Without the outlier, the trend is actually toward Obama in Virginia. Virginia seems to be slipping away from Romney.
I am showing a chart since August to show a bit more context for Georgia. The five poll average moved to a greater than 10% lead for Romney due to what is a clear outlier in September. Polling has been sparse in Georgia, because it hasn’t been in contention this cycle, so that outlier only rolled off the average today. I now have Romney with a 7.5% lead in Georgia. So this “gain” for Obama doesn’t matter. Romney will be winning in Georgia.
Michigan has been hovering right around the 5% Obama lead mark for the last month or so. Usually Obama’s lead is slightly more, with today’s update it is slightly less… 4.7%. This is due to one recent poll that actually shows Romney ahead in Michigan! This is out of line with all other recent polling, but as usual, I do not manually remove outliers, I let the averages do their thing. (Although I keep thinking that maybe in 2016 I should use a median, which is less sensitive to these things.) Anyway, at 4.7%, Michigan has the biggest Obama lead of any of the current crop of “close states”. Like Wisconsin, this means that there are a lot of other states that would be easier for Romney to take the lead in that Michigan. If Romney actually pulls ahead in Michigan, this means it is very likely that he has already pulled ahead in all of the other close states… at which point he would not only have won, but be heading for a pretty comfortable victory. So while it might be a bit closer than it was (maybe), Michigan is still quite unlikely to end up flipping to Romney, or to be one of the critical states in the last days. This brings us to the new map and summary:
Romney’s best case now actually is the best it has been ALL YEAR LONG, exceeding his best case at the peak after the 1st presidential debate. In a sense, this does represent a Romney comeback in the last few days. He *is* making a bunch of states closer. He has taken a bunch of states where Obama had been ahead by more than 5%, and pulled them back so they are somewhat close. This may help him in the popular vote, but in the electoral college, it doesn’t look like he has moved any of these states ENOUGH. He may be making states closer, but he is NOT pulling them over the line to him. Meanwhile, while Obama hasn’t been pulling ahead by more than 5% in more states, and he hasn’t managed to pull any more states to his side either, he actually has been increasing his lead in some of the most critical states. Time to take a look in more detail by comparing the five poll average now to the five poll average 7 days ago:
That is a lot of close states! But what can be seen here? Out of 13 close areas, only FOUR moved toward Romney in the last week. Colorado, Pennsylvania, Maine’s 2nd congressional district, and Michigan. Of these only Colorado is in Romney’s easiest path to victory. I listed the states above in order by the level of Romney support from highest to lowest. That means the states he NEEDS to be improving in the most in order to win are Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa. Looks like Colorado is almost tied now, so I guess whatever Romney is doing there is working and is time well spent. But the rest of these critical states are moving the wrong direction for Romney. There has been speculation that Romney is trying to do a “hail mary” of some sort, trying to actually win Pennsylvania and Michigan as an alternate path to victory. The states he is ahead in, plus Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and then Michigan is certainly another path to victory. But given Obama’s current leads in those states, going through New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa certainly seems like an easier path than Pennsylvania and Michigan. Perhaps Romney’s internal polling shows Obama’s support is “softer” in these states though. For the most part though, this looks like effort put into the wrong places, while Obama consolidates his leads in the states more likely to be the tipping point. And that is the cue for today’s tipping point graph:
The Virginia outlier is gone, so now the chart can be interpreted directly. (I’ve removed the little x’s showing what things would have looked like if I had manually removed the outlier.) Iowa is now the tipping point state, and Obama is ahead by 3.4% in Iowa. There was a dip in the past few days (which was slightly more without the Virginia outlier) but Obama’s popped up again. If Romney manages to move the polls in all the close states by at least 3.4%, he can win. But that is a tall order at this point. A very tall order. As I type there are 48 hours and a few minutes left until the first polls start closing on election night. 3.4% is a huge move in such a short time. Something incredibly dramatic would have to happen to move opinion that much in the final moments. Romney’s only real hope at this point is that all the polls are wrong. Absent that, Obama wins a second term. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
Today’s update includes Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida all changing categories, all moving in Obama’s direction. But two of these three states need to have asterisks next to the status change, and one of them needs a big asterisk. So lets look at them:
We’re looking only at the last few weeks in these state trend charts now since the election is so close and there is so much polling. Of the three states moving today, Wisconsin looks the most like a real bonafide movement. There is a lot of spread in the polls, but this looks like a real trend toward Obama over the last few weeks. The five poll average goes over 5% today, to 6.3%, so I take it out of the “Lean Obama” category where I consider Romney winning the state to be possible.
Virginia is the state that requires the big huge asterisk. As I mentioned yesterday, there is a big ugly outlier point currently in Virginia. According to the process I defined months ago, it gets included. I won’t second guess that process to remove it based on my own judgement rather than any hard or fast rule which was determined BEFORE seeing the data. (I may change the inclusion rules in 2016 though.) In any case, I will however point out that it is a pretty unbelievable outlier. Even without this outlier, there is movement in the last week toward Virginia. But with the outlier included in the five poll average, Obama’s lead in the state jumps to 5.6% today, changing the state’s category. Without the outlier, Obama’s lead has still increased, but only to 2.8%. At the current rate of polling in Virginia, the outlier should roll off the average before the election, quite possibly tomorrow. But for the moment, I list Virginia as “Weak Obama” and take it out of Romney’s best case. But I really don’t believe it.
Finally Florida. This one just gets the asterisk because we essentially just have Florida continuing to bounce around right near zero. If you eliminate the two most extreme polls in the last two weeks (one favoring each candidate) there does appear to be a bit of a trend toward Obama. But the state is still really close, and may continue to bounce back and forth before we are done. So the new summary and map:
So once again the “current status” is 332 to 206. It seems like we may have seen that before. As usual since the range between the best cases includes the possibility of both candidates winning, it is time to look at the margin in the tipping point state:
The outlier in Virginia effects this chart as well, so I’ve added red x’s that show where the line would have been if I had excluded that data point. With or without the outlier, Obama’s lead in the tipping point state is a little less than it was previously. With the outlier included, the tipping point is now New Hampshire, where Obama is ahead by 3.4%. If you excluded the outlier, the decline is more pronounced, the tipping point would be Virginia, where Obama’s lead would be 2.8%. The degree of the dip is within the size of the swings this metric has shown over the last few weeks though. It may be the start of a trend toward Romney, or it may just be noise in this way of measuring things. Only a few more days left to find out. If you look at each of the swing areas, you can find movement in both directions. Just comparing my data from yesterday to my data from today, we have Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Colorado (9) and Iowa (6) moving toward Romney while Florida (29), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4) all move toward Obama. Pennsylvania (20) and Nebraska-2 (1) didn’t change as there were no new polls in either today. Daily numbers are noisy. You need to look at the overall trend. The net effect right now: Obama is still ahead, but the tipping point (with or without the Virginia outlier) is getting a little bit closer than it was. All eyes have been on Ohio. Ohio has gotten closer than it was. Obama’s margin is down to 2.3%. But with Ohio closer, other states like New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia become the tipping point, and Obama still has larger margins there. Romney still needs to get a significant movement in his direction to win. Or just hope that all the state polls are wrong. Obama remains a heavy favorite for the electoral college, but a Romney upset COULD happen. If you were going to bet on this race though, you clearly should be betting on Obama. Betting against Obama means you think either that Romney can make up an approximately 3% deficit in the key states in a matter of days, or that the state level polls in the key states are all biased toward Obama by the same margin. Romney’s lead in the national polls seems to be diminishing in the last few days though, with things looking more tied than anything else. So the possibility of an electoral college / popular vote split may be slipping away. Oh well, that would have been fun! Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
Two states change categories today. One moves toward Obama, the other moves toward Romney. Lets take a look:
Last Friday the five poll average moved to a 5.2% Obama lead in Nevada. With today’s update, it drops back down to 4.6%. With that I put Nevada back in the list of “Lean Obama” close states. In the last year, Romney has NEVER held a lead in Nevada in the five poll average. Winning Nevada would be a stretch for him. But it is once again somewhat close. There ARE situations you could imagine, even with less than two weeks to go, that would erase Obama’s advantage in Nevada. As we get closer though, a 4.6% lead looks a lot bigger than it might have a month ago.
After a brief dip into Romney territory in the middle of October, Virginia returns to where it has been for most of the last year… a small Obama lead. As of now, the five poll average has Obama with a 1.0% lead in Virginia. This moves Virginia back to Obama’s column. The lead is narrow, this could change, but the movement lately has been toward Obama. If you look specifically at the state charts such as the two above, this is actually the picture in most of the states that are in contention. You see an Obama decline starting about a week before the first debate, which accelerates into more of an implosion after the first debate. That decline hits bottom sometime between the VP debate and the second presidential debate, and then Obama has been trending upward ever since, but is still quite a long way from his highs at the end of September. Now where does this put our summary?
That is right. Our old friend is back. Obama winning by 332 to 206. This is where the “Current” line has been more often than any other position. If you look at the chart showing the history of the race for the entire year you can see that the most time has been spent here, and while there have been occasional movements in both directions away, time after time things have just reverted to 332 to 206. This just seems to be where this race “wants” to be. This seems to be the “mean” that the race always reverts back to after one event or another moves it away. This looks like a pretty strong position for Obama, right? Romney is only ahead in ONE of the close states at the moment. He has to move several back over to his side to win. This does not look great for Romney. Well, no, this isn’t great for Romney. His situation is considerably worse than it was right before the second debate. He clearly peaked and is now declining again… at least in terms of the electoral college. There have been some people saying that they are seeing Romney momentum right now. Uh, no. But… it is still close. Time to look again at the individual close states:
We still have Romney with 191 electoral votes without any close states. Add in the one close state he is ahead in, North Carolina, and you get to 206 electoral votes. That is 63 electoral votes short. In yesterday’s update if you moved all states toward Romney by more than 1.2%, you would have a Romney win. The tipping point was Ohio. The tipping point is still Ohio. The easiest way for Romney to win is to hold North Carolina, then pull Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado… and Ohio… to his side of the fence. This is looking like a much harder job than it was before. More states are slipping away from Romney… but they are still close… they are not out of reach. Not as close as they were though. Obama’s lead in Ohio is increasing. It is now 1.6%. But 1.6% is still tiny. You can easily imagine events that would cause a 1.7% or 2.0% move in the polls across all the close states. If Obama pulls ahead by a bit more in Ohio, then maybe we can say he starts to look like a clear winner. But at the moment, it is still close. Obama is ahead. If the election was held today, he would be the favorite by a decent margin. As of today, FiveThirtyEight has Obama at a 68.1% chance of winning. I’ve seen higher estimates elsewhere, up to 93.4%. My gut says it is somewhere in between. Maybe 80%. But there is another interesting possibility percolating that I’ll mention before I close. For the last two weeks or so, most of the places doing poll averaging of national polls have shown Romney ahead. I don’t believe ANY of the sites that I track that are doing analysis of the electoral college have shown Romney ahead at any point. Obama has always been ahead. If this situation persists through election day, we may have a repeat of 2000, but with the parties reversed and the key state being Ohio instead of Florida. Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama wins the electoral college and therefore the presidency. This kind of situation happens when you have something like Romney building up increasingly large margins in states he was going to win anyway, like Texas. These additional gains make no difference to the electoral college, but they do matter to the electoral vote. I would find this extremely entertaining for no reason more than being able to watch all kinds of people in both parties suddenly have a completely opposite opinion on the value of the electoral college than they espoused 12 years previously. This is still not necessarily an expected outcome… FiveThirtyEight puts the odds of the scenario above at 6.5%. (For completeness, they give 1.8% odds to the reverse scenario where Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.) 6.5% isn’t exactly super likely, but it is nothing to sneeze at. If there was a 6.5% chance of a hurricane hitting your city, you would be starting to make preparations. Meanwhile though, other analysts put these odds much higher… specifically, Sam Wang puts the chances of this at 25%. I normally say you can basically ignore the popular vote except as an early indicator to moves in the states… but this is a situation where watching the popular vote is worth it. If we continue to see a popular vote / electoral vote split it will make for a very interesting election night. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney. Edit 2012 Oct 24 18:53 UTC to fix a few wording issues.
Three states changing categories today. All three moving toward Romney. As usual, lets look at them from smallest to largest in electoral college strength:
First up, New Hampshire. Before the first debate Obama was up to a 9.9% lead here. Now with 4/5 polls after the debate, that lead slips to 4.6%. This is in line with the drops we’ve seen in a bunch of other states. Obama still has a lead here, but it is now small enough that it could easily slip away. New Hampshire has been here before. It had only spiked to a big Obama lead a few weeks ago, when Romney was at his nadir. So this is perhaps New Hampshire just returning to form as a close state leaning slightly toward Obama.
Last time Virginia changed status, I noted that it had been bouncing between Lean Obama and Weak Obama, but perhaps it was ready to break out of that pattern. Indeed it has. This time Obama’s lead continued to drop. After peaking at 5.1% a few days before the debate, Obama’s lead slowly disappeared, and with today’s addition, the five poll average now stands at a 1.0% Romney lead. Romney has been ahead before in Virginia, but it was very short lived. The question of course is if this time he can hold the lead or if Virginia will revert to “normal” which is a narrow Obama lead.
Just yesterday Obama had retaken a very slight lead in the Florida five poll average. Today that slips away, and with some relatively strong polls, Romney ends up with a 1.8% lead at the moment. Florida is still very close. All the states we have talked about today are very close. But the momentum here, as in most other states in the last week and a half, has been toward Romney. So, the revised summary:
We are still seeing what is fairly obviously fallout from the first debate. It has just taken different amounts of time for there to be enough polling in different states to show it. All considered, it looks like we have seen one of the biggest debate effects ever in a presidential election. The level of self-inflicted damage by Obama is amazing. Of course, when this started, Obama had a substantial lead. So even after all of this, Obama is still ahead and is still the favorite. Surely we must NOW be close to a ceiling for Romney, right? Well, maybe not if Obama doesn’t redeem himself in the next debate. But assuming the absence of another catastrophic fail, it seems like sometime soon we’ll need to start seeing some reversion to the mean, which in this case would mean a bit of strengthening for Obama. I don’t have the time today to again do a rundown of the current margins in all the swing states, but suffice it to say that if Romney holds on to all of the states he is currently ahead in, Romney only needs 13 more electoral votes to win. He can get that in a number of ways at this point. The easiest way is still to win Ohio (18 ev). Romney is currently behind in Ohio by only 2.2%. Ohio is within reach. Romney just needs to convince a few more people, or energize greater turnout. Alternately, and a lot more fun, Romney could win Iowa (6 ev) where he is currently behind by 3.2% and Nevada (6 ev) where he is currently behind by 1.6%. That would result in a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie. Assuming no faithless electors, that would throw the election into the House of Representatives, where Romney would almost certainly win. The last time a Presidential election was thrown to the house was 1824. That would be so much fun to watch happen! It is still unlikely though. But a guy can hope! Bottom line though, right now Obama is ahead, but only by the very slimmest of margins. If Romney can hold on to his gains from the last couple of weeks (Obama actually peaked a little before the first debate) and move things just a LITTLE more, then he can win this. I am quite sure Obama would like the Romney “debate bounce” to be over now. We’ll start seeing polls that factor in the VP debate any time now. It is unlikely to have as profound an effect as the first debate and therefore I don’t anticipate Obama erasing Romney’s recent gains. But perhaps the bleeding will finally stop. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
First, lets talk about Virginia. Virginia actually should have flipped back from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama” YESTERDAY. The data was in my spreadsheet. Virginia had clearly dropped below a 5% Obama lead again, to 4.3%. I have no idea how I missed it, but I did, and I did not mention it in yesterday’s update. I screwed up. I have corrected the historical trend graph above to reflect this category change as of yesterday. The graph below of the Virginia polls is as it was YESTERDAY, not yet including new data from today:
As I mentioned when Virginia changed status on Wednesday, it is just bouncing back and forth. The recent history now looks like this:
The latest change to move the state back to being a close state happened BEFORE any polls that were taken after the first debate. Now, I wouldn’t have known this yesterday, but today’s update contains two new Virginia polls, the first ones taken after the debate, and they suddenly show Romney ahead! So the five poll average is dropping rapidly, and is now down to a 2.8% Obama lead. So maybe this time we are done bouncing, and we’ll either stay close but leaning Obama, or end up moving to Leaning Romney. We’ll see. But as of the update that should have happened yesterday but I missed (damn it!) Virginia was still just bouncing back and forth, hovering around the “Obama 5% Lead” mark. Next up is a state that really does change due to today’s new data:
Ohio had been moving rapidly in Obama’s direction. Every new day of polls seemed to increase Obama’s lead. Obama’s lead had gone over 5% on September 26th and had gotten up to a 7.8% lead in the 5 poll average as of yesterday. Today I added two new polls, both taken entirely on the 4th, which is of course after the first debate. One shows Obama up by only 1%, the other shows Romney up by 1%. Together they average to a tie. If more polls end up backing up these two new polls, it will show a very substantial movement due to the debate, on the order of a 7% or 8% shift. That would be gigantic. For now though, with three polls before the debate and two after, Obama’s lead in the five poll average is down to 4.2%. That puts the state back into the “Lean Obama” category, and puts it back into play for Romney. To summarize the updated state of the race:
The big change of course is that Romney’s best case once again includes winning. If he sweeps all the close states, now once again including Ohio and Virginia, he can win 281 to 257. Now, of the six close states, he is only ahead in North Carolina according to my five poll average, so this is still a tall order. But the new polls in Ohio indicate there just might have been a big debate effect. Other new polls with post debate data in Virginia, as mentioned above, and in Florida also show noticeable tightening, just nothing that changes a state to a new category yet. Both Virginia (if I’d properly updated it yesterday) and Florida were already categorized as close states. The new polls, so far, have made these states even closer, but have not actually flipped them over to be leaning Romney. If more new polls over the next few days continue to show big improvements for Romney though, we could see some of the Lean Obama states start flipping over to being Lean Romney states, and we could see a few more Weak Obama states become close Lean Obama states. So far we just have Ohio making a category change that seems like a clear debate effect. But Ohio is a big state, and there has still been very light post-debate polling. We’ll know better what the real effect of the first debate was after a few more days. Then we’ll hit the VP debate, and other changes in the news cycle, which will make it hard to determine if any further changes are really due to the debate, or from other things that happen later. Bottom line though, coming off a very bad month most of September, since September 27th Romney has been bouncing back. Since then his numbers have been fairly consistently improving. For now I’ll stick by the prediction that the beginning of September was his post-primary high water mark in my models though. I think his levels at that point… namely a 317 to 221 best case if he were to win ALL of the close states (an unlikely outcome) and a 303 to 235 Obama win “current status” if everybody just takes the states they are ahead in… is likely to serve as a ceiling for Romney’s gains. I don’t think he’ll be able to break past that point. Unless of course Obama has a whole lot more bad performances like his debate this week up his sleeve for the coming weeks. If that happens, then who knows. :-) Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
One change today, and it is a state moving toward Obama:
The last few weeks Virginia has bounced between categories just a tad:
And now, with the latest numbers, it moves once again to Weak Obama. The truth is that for these last few weeks, Obama’s lead in the Virginia five poll average has stayed right around 5%. Since September 20th it has remained within the range 3.9% to 5.8%. It’s just happened to bounce back and forth over that arbitrary 5% dividing line a few times. There hasn’t been any actual real significant movement in Virginia during that time period. It just happens that the state is hovering right at the boundary between my two categories. So sometimes it looks like it might (just barely) be a state that Romney has some hope of flipping, and sometimes it looks like a state that is out of his reach (just barely). If I had decided to only call states close where the lead was less than 3% then Virginia would not have looked close at all in the last few weeks. If I had decided to call anything less than 6% close, then it would have seemed like it was close the whole time. The line is arbitrary. Of course, if you are going to categorize things rather than present a spectrum, you have to draw the lines somewhere, and I picked 5%. So once again, at least until the next poll, Virginia looks like a state Obama can be pretty confident about, and we take it out of Romney’s best case:
Virginia “close” or Virginia “not close”, Romney’s situation is the same: Even if he wins all the close states… all of which he is behind in at the moment… it does not give him enough to win the election. To win the election he has to also win one or more states where Obama is currently ahead by more than 5%. For that to happen he needs something that completely changes the dynamics of the race. We are less than 24 hours away from the first of the Presidential debates. Romney of course hopes this may be an event that starts the big move in his direction. Historically debates have not have that kind of impact. But he can hope. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
Two states change status today, and for a change, they are moves in Romney’s direction:
First up, Iowa, with six electoral votes. A new poll came in “out of order” which erases yesterday’s peak that got Iowa to a 5% Obama lead. The chart above looks at the five poll average as of the end dates of each poll given all polls known today. The trend chart at the top of this post shows the state of the race as of what was known on each day.* So even though the peak gets erased on the state trend, it still shows up for that one day on the summary chart since as of yesterday that was the best estimate. A bit confusing, sorry about that. In any case, Iowa now drops back into being a competitive state. Obama now has a 3.6% lead… Romney coming back and winning the state seems very possible. 3.6% is not a big lead. Two of the last five polls in the state actually show Romney ahead in the state. The five poll average has never shown Romney ahead here, but Iowa once again goes into the “close state” pool. Romney winning the state is quite possible.
Next is Virginia with 13 electoral votes. On September 23rd Obama’s five poll average lead in Virginia topped 5%. Today he dips back below that threshold. Obama’s lead now stands at 4.3%. Virginia has bounced around quite a bit over the past few months. In the last three months it has ranged from a 5.8% Obama lead to a 0.3% Romney lead. Most frequently the state has shown an Obama lead, but a small one that could easily disappear. Virginia is once again in that situation. So where does that leave us?
Romney’s best case is still to lose, but if he wins all the close states it will not be quite as bad a loss now that Virginia and Iowa look like they may be in play again. Is this the beginning of a more general move back toward Romney? It is obviously too early to tell. But it is not unreasonable to think that while Romney had a few bad weeks, if he manages to avoid any more major missteps, people who reacted negatively recently may start to come back to him. We’ll see how big this move over the next few days. After that, we start seeing what effect, if any, come out of the Presidential debates. * The exception is when an old poll comes in so late that is is not within the five poll average at all. If that happens, and if it changes the trend lines, I will retroactively adjust the historical trends. But if polls come in “out of order” but still within the “last five” they are considered a current poll and are just added in normally with no retroactive adjustments. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
No truly new polls today, but I added some more slightly older ones from Polltracker now that I am using them as a source as well. They have a few that were not included by my other sources. In any case, only one change came out of that today:
With this, the five poll average in Virginia goes back above 5%. If I’d gotten the polls “in order”, Virginia actually would not have dipped below 5% yesterday at all. Polls arrive out of order all the time of course. As I’ve mentioned before, with a few exceptions when I find really old polls, I mark changes in category based on my best knowledge as of any given day, I don’t try to retroactively change the status on past days. In any case, Obama now leads by 5.3% in the five poll average. So, Virginia once again leaves the group of states I consider possible for Romney to win… if the election was held today that is. Things can of course change. In the mean time though, the summary:
Virginia may be bouncing around the 5% Obama lead line at the moment, but be it a little below or a little above, either way, it is a state that would make Romney’s electoral math much easier if it was actually in play. At the moment, it is just out of reach. Without it, Romney’s road is pretty hard. It has been pointed out that although the state by state math looks bad, if there are campaign events that bring a uniform national move toward Romney, then a bunch of states will of course move in his direction too. That is how it works. States that are leaning Obama will start leaning Romney. States that are weak Obama and currently out of reach will start being close. This kind of move is very possible. No chickens should be being counted by the Democrats. But time is running out for things to happen (either positive things from Romney, or mistakes by Obama) which bring about that kind of move. Polls looking into how set people are on the candidates they support at the moment show a pretty small percentage of actual undecided or “persuadable” people though. So it may be pretty difficult to bring about that kind of move. As I’ve said before, to get there we probably need a major screwup by Obama as opposed to anything Romney could do to bring people toward him. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.
Big day, lots of changes in polls behind the scenes aided by the fact I’ve now added PollTracker as a source. They seem to be picking up and including some polls left out by my other sources. The big batch of new polls today led to three category changes. So lets get to them in order of electoral college size from small to large:
First up, South Dakota with 3 electoral votes. It has been very sparsely polled, but it is easy to see why. This state is not even remotely in contention. It is a Romney state. Back in August a new poll had brought the five poll average down to a Romney lead of less than 10%, moving it to “Weak Romney” instead of “Strong Romney”. Now the first poll since then moves it back to “Strong Romney”. Either way, South Dakota is not a state we imagine Obama winning even in his best possible scenario.
Next up is Virginia with 13 electoral votes. On Thursday Obama’s lead in the state tipped just barely over 5%. With a new poll today, it dips back just barely below 5%. So once again it goes into my “Lean Obama” category and it is once again considered one of the states Romney *could* win, even though he is currently behind in the state. So this improves Romney’s best case and opens up more possible “paths to victory” that one can mathematically imagine given the polling.
Finally, North Carolina with 15 electoral votes. Never once in the last year has this state not been “close”. Most of the time it has leaned toward Romney though, with just a few bounces toward Obama. Today’s batch of new polls are all favorable to Obama though, and the five poll average tips toward Obama, barely, at a 0.8% lead for Obama. Now, there is some oddness in how I count polls here. When a poll includes results in more than one way (Likely Votes vs Registered, or with our without Leaners) rather than picking one version of the poll based on some criteria I make up, I count those as separate polls if they are reported differently by the sources I use. This will potentially overweight the one poll with multiple reports. I count on this effect being washed out over time. This state is close enough that it can make a difference though. But the difference is between just barely leaning one way, and just barely leaning the other way. These two situations are barely distinguishable from each other. So, for instance, in the case of North Carolina, while the new polls tip the state over the center line, it should be kept front of mind that a 0.8% lead is NOTHING and is close enough that it can easily just be statistical or methodological noise, and even if it isn’t, is close enough it can be wiped out overnight by the events in a news cycle. So while this does move the “everybody gets every state they are ahead in” line in my models, do keep in mind that ALL of the “close” states should be considered to be states that easily could go either way. So, with all of these, the new model summary:
With this the “Current Status” where everybody gets every state they are ahead in is back up to matching Obama’s previous highs in April and May. Even with Obama’s best case, he isn’t matching his 2008 performance. But he is at what has so far been his ceiling in this race. To move beyond this he needs to start pulling ahead in states like Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina and Montana. All of these have so far seemed way out of reach this time around. And they still do. We would need a major Romney collapse to start bringing these states over to Obama. As I said though, this lead in North Carolina is by the slimmest of margins, and is helped along slightly by my methodology. It would not be surprising at all for this to flip back to the “normal” 332 to 206 Obama victory margin we’ve been seeing most of the year in my model. In the mean time, Virginia getting a bit closer again is good news for Romney. If he can’t bring states like Virginia back to being at least close, it is really hard to see how he pulls off a win. Having said that though, the recent trend in Virginia has been against him. We’ll need more polls (I’m sure we’ll have them soon) to know if Romney is really making Virginia close again, or if it will slip back away from him with the next batch of polls. Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney. (Edited 2012 Sep 22 23:50 to add some final thoughts and do some cleanup.) |
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