On Curmudgeon’s Corner this week we are in the home stretch to the election and that is the main topic. The third debate, the Al Smith dinner, updates on the polls, and more. Prior to that though, Sam and Ivan do a quick bit about Vegas, Reno, and gambling.
Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
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Show Details:
Recorded 2016-10-21
Length this week – 1:25:34
(0:00:10-0:24:50) But First
What we are skipping
Voting
De La Fuente
Vegas
Sam’s Reno Story
(0:25:28-1:05:44) Election 2016 – Part 1
Polling Update
Honoring Election Results
Voter Fraud
Pence
Lawsuits
Republican Split?
Congress
Trump’s Guests
(1:06:33-1:25:10) Election 2015 – Part 2
Firebombing
Al Smith Dinner
McMullin
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states and DC.
Notable changes in: Ohio, Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and the tipping point
National Summary
Despite the widespread view that the time between the Vice Presidential debate and the present has essentially been non-stop bad news for Trump that could only cause his number to fall, and the fact that the national popular vote numbers do show this kind of trend, the electoral college view has just plain not shown that. In fact, looking at the various electoral college numbers we track here, things have mostly been moving in Trump’s direction since the 2nd debate. In the latest update, we have these changes:
Good for Trump:
Expected case moves from a 154 EV win for Clinton to a 140 EV win for Clinton
Tipping point moves from Clinton by 5.4% in VA to Clinton by 4.9% in PA
Trump best case improves from a 6 EV loss to a 34 EV win
Good for Clinton:
Clinton best case improves from a 204 EV win to a 238 EV win
While Clinton’s best case does improve a bit (although this may be due to outliers, see state details below), for the most part the movement here is toward Trump. It is not a huge movement, but it also doesn’t look like Trump continuing to crash.
Here are the charts:
While we do have Indiana and Kansas moving into the “Weak Trump” category, and thus expanding Clinton’s best case, the net changes for the expected case and tipping point are both in Trump’s direction, and Trump improves his best case as well, with Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania down from where it was at the VP debate.
Looking at both charts, while Trump may have improved a bit from his lows, what this really looks like is that we have reached a plateau and things have basically been flat since the VP debate, minus some jiggles around the edges by states that are right near my category boundaries.
There are still events that aren’t factored in here, including some of the later sexual assault allegations, and of course the third debate. So things may start moving again in the next few updates. But for now… basically flat.
The “best case”, if Trump wins all his states, plus all the states where he is within 5%, now once again registers a narrow Trump win. But that would still require either a fairly large systematic polling error, or a last minute Trump surge. The “bubble” shows the extreme range of “conceivable possibilities”, but the edges of the bubble are still very unlikely. We’re far more likely to get results closer to the “expected” line.
Looking at the expected result, we are once again we are in the zone where Trump does better than McCain, but worse than Romney. That is a solid Clinton win, but not any sort of unprecedented loss for Trump. Just a normal sort of electoral loss. At least in terms of the electoral college.
We’ll see if anything causes that to change.
19.3 days left until we start getting real vote counts instead of polls…
State Details
Weak Clinton to Weak Trump
Trump now leads Ohio by 0.9%, but Ohio has been bouncing up and down right around the center line for months. It had been trending toward Clinton until a recent batch of polls that were better for Trump. Really could go either way.
Weak Trump to Weak Clinton
Clinton is now at +1.6% in Arizona. The state has been trending in her direction since the 1st debate. It is still close though, and this could be reversed. There is a reason we call the “weak” states weak.
Into reach for Trump
Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania grew considerably after the 1st debate, but has been shrinking again since the VP debate. It now stands at only 4.9%, which means we once again consider it within reach for Trump. If Trump managed to stretch out and win Pennsylvania, his overall shot of winning the White House is significantly greater. But he has never led in the Pennsylvania poll average. So that will still take a significant move from where we are now…
Into reach for Clinton
The Election Graphs average now has Trump’s lead in Indiana down to only 4.0%. This puts it in the “Weak Trump” category. I’m not sure I really believe this though. This is pulled downward by two Google polls showing Clinton actually leading in Indiana, which are outliers compared to the rest of the Indiana results. Without Google, the average would be Trump leading by 8.0%. Indiana is closer than it was a few months ago. It HAS been trending slowly away from Trump. But take Indiana as a swing state with a dose of salt until non-Google polls show it there too.
Use the rest of your salt for Kansas, and for the same reason. Google. Without the Google polls, the average in Kansas would not be Trump by 2.7%, it would be Trump by 15.0%. Kansas is lightly polled, so Google has an outsized influence. And the Google results are WAY off from what any other pollster has seen.
Also impacted the tipping point
A note about McMullin
In the last week or two McMullin has spiked in Utah. Some individual polls now even show him leading in Utah. All of the current Election Graphs metrics and charts operate under the assumption that no third party has a realistic shot at winning electoral votes. I have had the outline of a contingency plan on how to modify the site to accommodate 3rd parties that might win electoral votes for months, but activating it would take quite a lot of time and effort. If a 3rd candidate had gotten to that position a month or two ago, the site would definitely have been revamped to adjust for that possibility. As it is, there realistically is no longer time to do that before election day.
Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah has McMullin 6.4% behind the lead. The 538 average in Utah has him 11.1% behind the lead. If/when McMullin is within 5% according to either of these averages, I will add notes to both the Utah and National pages talking about the possibility of McMullin winning Utah’s 6 electoral votes, but I probably won’t try to revamp the site to change absolutely everything to account for the possibility. I’ll try to have something ready for 2020 just in case though. :-)
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks a state poll based estimate of the Electoral College. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
States with new poll data added since the last update: Everywhere except Alaska, DC, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wyoming, and the Nebraska congressional districts.
Notable changes in: Indiana and the tipping point
National Summary
We now have plenty of polls that are after the Access Hollywood tape and after the 2nd debate, and even a few from after the various sexual assault allegations leveled against Donald Trump. The averages go back further, often covering 2-3 weeks, even for the close states. But we are getting to the point where we should be seeing impact from those events.
After the first debate, we did see a big drop. It continued through to release of the tape and the second debate. We are still getting polls covering the period immediately after that, so things may yet change… but so far there has not been a further drop since those events.
In fact, we have seen an improvement for Trump since the last update:
The tipping point moved from Clinton by 6.5% in PA to Clinton by 5.4% in VA.
Clinton’s best case declined from a 226 EV win to only a 204 EV win.
The expected case and Trump’s best case remained the same.
Here are the charts:
Both charts show a bit of improvement for Trump based on the last few days of polls.
Now, it might be wise to be cautious here. We are still going to get more polls covering this period. So these lines will move about some more. But it is also very possible that Trump hit his floor, and we’re now bouncing back a bit from that.
The public is very polarized. There is a percentage of Americans who will vote Democrat no matter what, and another percentage who will vote Republican no matter what. We may have seen both extremes of the how far things can change by those in the middle sloshing back and forth. If so, the extremes of this race go from a nearly tied race at Trump’s ceiling, to about a 188 electoral vote win for Clinton at her ceiling. Those are “expected case” numbers. In terms of the tipping point that translates into a Clinton lead of between approximately 0.5% and 6%.
Given recent news cycles and where things stand now, it currently seems as if a break through Trump’s floor is more likely than through his ceiling. As has been pointed out, a comeback from this far behind with this little time left would be unprecedented. But while it is possible that events may cause us to break out of that range, it seems very likely that when the votes come in on November 8th, we’ll find ourselves somewhere between those bounds.
But we shall see soon enough… 22.1 days left to go!
State Details
Moving out of Clinton’s reach
The general trend in Indiana has been a steadily weakening lead for Trump. But with the latest polls, the average pops up to a 5.9% Trump lead, so for now, Indiana is no longer in the “could go either way” category.
State that changed the tipping point
A note about McMullin
In the last week or two McMullin has spiked in Utah. Some individual polls show him within striking range of winning Utah. All of the current Election Graphs metrics and charts operate under the assumption that no third party has a realistic shot at winning electoral votes. I have had the outline of a contingency plan on how to modify the site to accommodate 3rd parties that might win electoral votes, but activating it would take quite a lot of work. If a 3rd candidate had gotten to that position a month or two ago, the site would definitely have been revamped to adjust for that possibility. As it is, there simply may not be time to do that before election day.
Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah, which includes McMullin, stands at Trump 31.8%, Clinton 25.5%, McMullin 22.8%, Johnson 8.8%, Stein 1.0%. (The Election Graphs Utah average currently stands at Trump 39.0%, Clinton 26.8%, but doesn’t yet include at least one poll that came out as this update was being finalized.) If and when the RCP average shows McMullin within 5% of the lead in the state, I will at the very least put notes at appropriate places on the site noting he has the possibility of winning 6 electoral votes. I will consider more substantial changes only if time allows.
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner we’re in the home stretch to the election, so that pretty much is the whole show. How can it not be? The second debate. Aftermath from the Trump tapes. Sexual assault allegations. GOP civil war. And yes, Wikileaks too. What a week!
Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
1-Click Subscribe in iTunes View Podcast in iTunes View Raw Podcast Feed Download MP3 File Follow the podcast on Facebook Support us on Patreon
Show Details:
Recorded 2016-10-13
Length this week – 1:52:29
(0:00:10-0:08:52) But First
Agenda
Planes, Trains, and YouTube
(0:10:52-0:55:40) Election 2016 – Part 1
Grading on a curve
Bill’s women
Trump’s tape defense
New assault allegations
Lawsuits
Sexual assault
Impact on the race
(0:56:29-1:16:25) Election 2016 – Part 2
Sniffling
Another assault?
Donald’s daughters
Clinton jail threat
Conflict with Pence?
Body language
Trump positions?
Winner?
More Trump defences
SNL
(1:17:40-1:52:08) Election 2016 – Part 3
Wikileaks emails
Feedback
Downballot GOP
McMullin
Polling update
Russia messing with election?
Unshackled and Unhinged
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states, DC, and the Maine congressional districts
Notable changes in: Arizona, Indiana, Maine (CD2), and the tipping point
National Summary
At this point we have many polls that are fully or partially after the “Trump Tape” release on the 7th, but this batch of polls still included many where most of the time in the field was before that. And of course the state averages here are based on at least the last five polls in each state, so reach even further back in time. The close states tend to be based on polls with middates going back 1-3 weeks.
All that is to say that the changes we are seeing now are starting to include the fallout from that event, but haven’t yet fully factored it in.
With that out of the way, the changes for this round:
The expected result moves from Clinton by 176 EV to Clinton by 154 EV
The tipping point moves from Clinton by 5.9% in MN to Clinton by 6.5% in PA
Clinton’s best case improves from winning by 202 EV to winning by 226 EV
So wait, the expected result moved toward Trump! Why is the title of this post about Trump’s drop continuing?
Well, basically because the improvement in the expected case is a result of Arizona moving from just barely Clinton, to just barely Trump. Either way it is really too close to call. It may flip back again with the next update. Or maybe it won’t.
But meanwhile, polling changes in Minnesota, Virginia, and Pennsylvania moved the tipping point further toward Clinton, meaning that overall Trump has to move polls even further in order to actually flip the results of the election.
And Clinton expanded her best case a bit as well.
Here are the charts:
The trend in both charts is clear. After peaking right before the 1st debate Trump has been falling. This is more dramatic in the tipping point chart, but it is clear no matter which way you look at the race.
There is no time left for a Trump comeback from behind win from these levels. It would take something massive that would completely reverse everything we know about this race so far. It would be an unprecedented reversal. Impossible? No. Incredibly unlikely? Yes.
A few weeks ago Trump had managed to make this race close. But it was short-lived. Starting with the debate he has been dropping steadily. We don’t yet have signs that we have hit bottom either. There have been new negative stories about Trump almost every day. Further drops would not be surprising.
We’re no longer really talking about who will win this election. Clinton will win this election. The only question is by how much.
25.8 days left until we have the first actual election results.
State Details
Weak Clinton to Weak Trump
The latest polls not only move Arizona from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump, but since older polls were added, they actually moved the past curve Trumpward, such that we no longer have a recent period with Clinton in the lead at all. The trend has still been away from Trump toward Clinton since the 1st debate, but Clinton hasn’t pulled Arizona over to her side quite yet.
Moving into Clinton’s reach
Trump’s lead in Indiana has been diminishing since late August. With the latest updates Trump is up 4.8%. Trump still leads, but it is now close enough that a Clinton win does not seem impossible. Still a stretch to be sure, but no longer unimaginable.
Maine’s 2nd congressional district had looked like it would definitely split from the state this cycle giving Trump a somewhat unusual pickup. With the post-debate polls, Trump still leads, but his lead is slipping, and so it now seems that this single electoral vote is now up for grabs. Clinton could steal it back.
States that moved the tipping point
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
States with new poll data added since the last update: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Alaska
Notable changes in: Alaska
National Summary
Only one change this time, but it it continues to be movement toward Clinton. The most recent polls included here now ended Friday, but it is unclear how much, if any, they were impacted by the 2005 Trump tape, since that happened later in the day on Friday.
Clinton best case moves from a 196 electoral vote win to a 202 electoral vote win
The chart:
Clinton’s best case has been improving slowly since mid-September. She has a bit to go before she matches her peak in August, but if the current trends continue, we may see that again within a week or so as the impacts from the 2005 Trump tape and the second debate start to be visible in the state polls.
9.3 days until the next debate. 29.3 days until we start getting actual election results. We are in the final stretch.
State Details
Moving into play for Clinton
Alaska has been moving away from Trump for the last couple of weeks. With the latest additions, Trump is now up by only 4.2%. So it moves into the “Weak Trump” category.
Now, big caveat here… This is heavily influenced by a Google poll showing Clinton up by 10.8%. Google has had strange outliers in many states this cycle, and this may well be one of them. So it is quite possible this won’t last as additional new polls come in. Without Google, Trump’s lead would still be at 9.1%.
Having said that, there have been two non-Google polls since the first debate. If you only average those, you have a 3.8% Trump lead. Still in “Weak Trump” territory. So saying Alaska is looking much closer than it did is probably still quite fair.
In any case, we have a policy of including just about everything, so the Google polls count, and so Alaska is at Trump +4.2% now, which is a narrow enough lead that the state is now a possible Clinton pick up.
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
States with new poll data added since the last update: Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Alaska, Washington, Michigan, Arizona, Tennessee, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Illinois.
Notable changes in: Michigan and Arizona.
National Summary
As of this update, the most recent polls included in the state averages ended on Thursday. That means that as of yet we do not have any polling that would show the impact (or lack thereof) of Friday’s release of 2005 era Trump recordings that have dominated the news since then.
But even before those revelations, Trump was dropping quickly in the aftermath of the first debate and the leak of tax documents. This process continues:
The expected result moves from Clinton by 154 electoral votes to Clinton by 176
Trump’s best case moves from a 26 electoral vote win to a 6 electoral vote loss
The tipping point moves from Clinton by 4.5% in MI to Clinton by 5.9% in MN
Looking at the charts:
Clinton expands her expected win by taking the lead in Arizona. But perhaps more notable at this point is that her lead in Michigan expands to 5.9%, moving it from my “Weak Clinton” category into “Strong Clinton”.
Without Michigan, Trump no longer has a path to victory. He can win all the states he is ahead in, plus all the states where he is close (North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada) and he would still come up short, losing to Clinton 272 to 266.
In order to win, Trump would need to not only pull all of those close states over to his side, but also reverse his fortunes in Michigan or other states where he is currently not just behind, but significantly behind.
Now, with all this, Trump’s numbers are actually still slightly better than he was doing at Clinton’s high water mark in mid-August. Trump came back from that and moved things to the point where he had almost tied the race. Can’t he do that again? Well, look carefully at that recovery. From Trump’s low point, it took about a month to reach the point where he had almost tied the race. A month.
We now have 30.3 days left until polls start to close on election day. Many people have already voted. Early voting is ramping up quickly in state after state. In order to catch up and win, Trump would have to have a recovery that was more significant… and quicker… than the successes he managed in August and September.
For any reversal, Trump has to pull out of the tailspin first… and the polls don’t yet reflect the latest major campaign events. Things are likely to get worse for Trump before they get better. If they get better. He is running out of time. It may already be too late.
As I write this the 2nd Presidential debate is in just a few hours. Hang on tight.
State Details
Here are the charts for the states whose movements caused the summary changes:
Weak Trump to Weak Clinton
Four of the five polls in the average right now have Clinton tied or ahead in Arizona. All three post debate polls do. Clinton’s lead in the average though is a very narrow 0.3% though. Trump could very well take the lead again with the next poll.
Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton
Movement away from Trump is visible starting in mid September. Trump’s debate performance did nothing to change this trend. Clinton now holds a fairly substantial lead in Michigan.
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner… what else? Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. After a short bit on Hurricane Matthew, we dive into Trump’s taxes, then the Veep debate. We had originally ended the show there, but after the big Trump news Friday, we came back and recorded a bonus segment on the 2005 tape and the beginnings of the aftermath. The situation is still unfolding, but we had to stop and actually get the show out!
Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
1-Click Subscribe in iTunes View Podcast in iTunes View Raw Podcast Feed Download MP3 File Follow the podcast on Facebook Support us on Patreon
Show Details:
Recorded 2016-10-07
Length this week – 2:06:16
(0:01:26-0:21:11) But First
Agenda
Curmudgeon’s Corner Mug
Hurricane Matthew
(0:22:15-0:54:38) Trump Taxes
Background
How did he lose the billion?
Lying Trump
Political impact
Sam’s polling frustrations
Polling update
Undecided and 3P votes
(0:55:42-1:24:36) Veep Debate and More
The debate was boring
Kaine’s annoying interruptions
Pence pretends Trump doesn’t exist
Pence 2020?
Hidden voters?
Impact of the VP debate
The next debate
Bringing up Bill?
False Goodbye
(1:24:50-2:06:16) Bonus Segment!
Trump tape
Who is surprised?
Crude comments
Juana scolds Ivan
How much does this hurt Trump?
Clinton speech transcripts
Trump meltdown coming?
Republican damage control
Straight party ticket
3rd party voters
Defections begin
Too late to dump Trump?
Long term damage from 2016
False goodbye 2
Final update
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
States with new poll data added since the last update: All of them. Multiple times. There are additional new polls since I had to cut things off for this update as well. Those will be in the next update.
National Summary
The last week of polls has been devastating to Trump’s position. In the last update we were just starting to see the reaction from the first debate. With this batch the post-debate polling continued to roll in, and while there were a couple of minor moves toward Trump, the net change in this update was a dramatic move toward Clinton:
The expected result moved from Clinton by 6 electoral votes to Clinton by 154 electoral votes
The tipping point moved from Clinton by 2.1% in CO to Clinton by 4.5% in MI
Trump’s best case moved from a 60 EV win to a 26 EV win
Clinton’s best case moved from a 208 EV win to a 196 EV win
Looking at the charts:
The previous update mentioned some Trump losses starting a week or two before the debate. With a lot more polls filling in the time period right before the debate as well as right after, it now looks like those losses were reversed before the debate.
In the time after the debate though, all three indicators on the chart have moved in Clinton’s direction. The race is now essentially back to where it was at the beginning of September. We’re not yet back at Clinton’s high point from August, but it is getting close.
The tipping point chart is even more stark. As with the electoral college view, it looks like Trump’s mid-September declines were reversed by debate time, but after the debate everything falls off a cliff. Most of Trump’s gains from August and September are gone. Right before the debate he topped out with Clinton only ahead in the tipping point metric by 0.4%.
Clinton now leads by 4.5%. The tipping point state is Michigan. Clinton only has to increase her lead slightly there to not just take Michigan out of reach for Trump, but the Presidency.
What we are seeing in the polling results right now at this point probably fully factors in the debate itself. But we are just starting to see the impact from Trump’s “worst week in presidential campaign history ” that started with the debate, continued with his attacks on Alicia Machado, and ended with the leak of some of his tax information. The events of that week are not yet fully baked in.
And of course, the polls do not yet reflect the VP debate, or more importantly, the 2005 Trump video that was leaked on Friday. It is hard to imagine the events of the last few days NOT having an impact on the polls.
And the next debate is coming up. It should be interesting. If you were not planning on tuning in before, change your plans.
31.7 days left until the first actual election results start coming in.
State Details
A lot of states moved in order to produce the summary results above. For those interested in looking at the state by state details, they are below:
Weak Trump to Weak Clinton
Moving out of reach for Trump
Moving out of reach for Clinton
Moving into reach for Trump
States that changed categories but then moved right back again
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
States with new poll data added since the last update: New Jersey, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts.
National Summary
The newest batch of polls… mostly post-debate polls… results in movement toward Clinton and away from Trump, which matches the consensus expectations after the debate this week:
Trump’s best case declines from Trump by 92 EV to Trump by 60 EV
The tipping point moves from Clinton by 1.3% in NH to Clinton by 2.1% in CO
Looking at the charts:
Although polls may still come in that change the shape of the last couple weeks, right now a clear pattern is emerging where both “best cases” have been moving in Clinton’s direction since about September 20th. More states are coming into Clinton’s potential reach, while other states are moving out of Trump’s reach.
Interestingly, the “expected” case, although it has fluctuated as big states move back and forth across the center line, is back at the same place it was in mid-September… Clinton leading by an extremely narrow 6 electoral votes.
But there are six states where the average shows Trump leading by less than 0.5%… North Carolina, Nevada, Kansas, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa. Even if you don’t believe Kansas (I am personally dubious about that one), that means there are 74 electoral votes where Trump is hanging on by a thread. If more polls pull those five non-Kansas states away, his expected case drops all the way to an 154 electoral vote loss.
Things look very close in the electoral college right now, but that could change in a hurry!
The volatility of the electoral college measure means to really judge how “close” the race is, we’d be better off looking at the tipping point:
Although the tipping point also has ups and downs as states move around, there is a trend here too. Trump peaked on September 7th when Clinton was ahead by only 0.7% (in Nevada). Since then, Trump has been losing ground. With the latest post-debate drop, Clinton’s lead in the tipping point state (now Colorado) is up to 2.1%.
At the moment Trump only has to flip Colorado to be in the lead. And a 2.1% lead is not a huge margin there. This is still close. Just not at close as it was.
So far the post-debate moves actually look more like a continuation of trends that started earlier rather than a big change caused by the debates, but even after five days, most of the close states just have a small number of post-debate polls, so we may not be seeing the complete picture yet.
37.9 days, 2 presidential debates, and 1 VP debate left to go until polls start to close…
State Details
All the state level details for those who want to dig in…
Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton
The poll average in Michigan has been moving toward Clinton since September 18th. With the latest update, which included two separate post-debate polls, Clinton’s lead increases to 5.7% which moved the state out of reach for Trump, leading to the reduction of his best case mentioned above.
Didn’t change categories, but moved the tipping point
Weak Trump to Weak Clinton then back again
With the latest batch of polls Florida moved from just barely Trump to just barely Clinton, then moved right back again. As this round ended, Florida ends up with an 0.3% Trump lead. The bottom line with Florida is it has been “close” for all but a few days since the conventions ended. Unless we start seeing a definitive movement in one direction or another, Florida remains “too close to call”.
Having said that, Trump has been boosted by outlier Google polls. In the chart above, EVERY poll showing Trump with a lead more than 5% has been a Google poll. Those polls really do look like outliers. If you took Google out, Clinton would be maintaining a small but clear lead in Florida… but we include everything, and so Florida is still hovering right around the zero line.
For more information…
This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
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