This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
|
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
As I mentioned yesterday, Ron Paul had a big weekend in Maine. Green Papers has now updated their Maine Soft Count to reflect this. The previous estimate for Maine was: Romney 10, Paul 8, Santorum 4, Gingrich 1, TBD 1. Paul completely dominated the process at the District Caucuses and State Convention though. So now we have Paul 21, Romney 2, TBD 1.
That gives a net change for the day of Paul +13, Gingrich -1, Santorum -4, Romney -8
Paul is clearly the big winner for the day. Romney is clearly the big loser.
Of course, Romney is so far ahead at this point it barely matters.
In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:
- Romney: 28.8% -> 29.7%
- Santorum: 97.1% -> 97.5%
And Paul? Well, down from 114.4% to 113.0%. Still way above 100%. Not in contention here.
Of course, for Paul this isn’t about winning the nomination. He is getting down in the dirt in the state processes. He is winning a number of delegates, and Maine marks the second state (along with Minnesota) where he now has the plurality of delegates in Green Paper’s soft count (and he is tied in Iowa as well). In addition, he is collecting delegates in other states that while officially bound on the first ballot for Romney, are actually Paul supporters. Even though they can’t vote for Paul on the first ballot, these folks could cause procedural trouble at the convention if Paul wants them too.
Completely aside from Convention delegates though, Paul is using the process here to build an organization and to start electing “his people” to positions in the local and state party structure. In states like Maine, Minnesota and Iowa, Paul supporters are in the process of taking over the state Republican Parties. This will not matter in 2012, but it means they will have a bigger role in defining how the process will work in 2016 and 2020. Ron Paul is probably on his last presidential run, but the structure he leaves behind will be ready for Rand Paul (or some other Libertarian leaning candidate) next time around.
Winning the nomination was never what Paul was about. Working to put the machine in place to gradually, over many years, bend the Republican Party in his direction… that’s Ron Paul’s game. I don’t know if in the long run it will succeed, but that is what is going on here, not an attempt to keep fighting and win the nomination long after it was clear that would never happen.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
You may have heard reports of a big Ron Paul win in Nevada this weekend. Ron Paul supporters win 22 of the 25 delegate spots in Nevada and all that. Well, yes. True. However, in Nevada the delegates are still bound on the first ballot at the convention to vote proportionately to the caucus results, and the delegates can be removed and replaced if they attempt to do something different. So the slate of delegates elected in Nevada doesn’t actually change the delegate counts. Something else does however. According to Green Papers the delegates will be awarded proportionally between the candidates still actively in the race, so by suspending their campaigns Santorum and Gingrich lose their delegates and those delegates get reallocated. So the previous estimated allocation in Nevada had been: Romney 14, Gingrich 6, Paul 5, Santorum 3. This now becomes: Romney 20, Paul 8. So net from Nevada for today: Romney +6, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6.
Meanwhile, Romney picks up two more supers, one from Alabama and one from Arkansas.
So for the day: Romney +8, Paul +3, Santorum -3, Gingrich -6. So of course Romney continues to walk toward the nomination, despite some delegate gains for Paul as well.
Wait, but what about Maine? Paul won there over the weekend too, right? Yes. It looks that way. But Green Papers hasn’t updated their “soft count” for Maine yet. I’m sure they will soon. When they do, we’ll update here too.
In any case, for now, in terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:
- Romney: 29.6% -> 28.8%
- Santorum: 96.5% -> 97.1%
Despite winning some delegates, Paul’s “% of remaining needed to win” remains significantly higher than 100% at 114.4%. The delegates he is accumulating right now are not anywhere near enough to catch up and win… or even to block Romney in combination with Santorum and Gingrich delegates. Sorry. They may let him cause the convention not to go quite the way the Romney folks would like due to some unscripted deviations from the plan, but it won’t be anywhere near what would be needed to actually derail Romney.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
If you remember, in Ohio Santorum did not file all the right paperwork to have actual human delegates designated to fill the slots he might win in some parts of the state. There were four delegate positions that Santorum won, but wasn’t going to be able to claim because of that. Well, it looks like the Romney folks decided to be nice and not challenge Santorum’s ability to retroactively fill those four delegate slots. So Santorum will get those four delegates after all. So Santorum +4 in Ohio.
Meanwhile, DCW adjusts their Superdelegate Count. One Alabama super switches from Santorum to Romney. And then Romney gains two more previously undeclared supers, one from Alabama and one from South Dakota.
Net for the day, Romney +3, Santorum +3. At 50%, this is of course well over the 29.7% of the delegates Romney needs to be tracking to in order to clinch the nomination.
In terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:
- Romney: 29.7% -> 29.6%
- Santorum: 96.2% -> 96.5%
Next real contests on Tuesday.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
First of all, I just updated Wednesday’s post to add a correction. I had made the mistake of doubting Green Papers. I thought they had missed a delegate in their count. In fact, I had misinterpreted their statement about the change. I read their new total as a delta from the election, leading me to add an extra non-existant delegate to Romney’s total in Pennsylvania. My bad. Not theirs. Worse, my first draft of Wednesday’s post actually had it right, but I switched it to the wrong answer right before posting. Bleh. Today’s updates build off the corrected numbers for Wednesday rather than the original incorrect numbers I posted. (OK, it was only off by one delegate, which is tiny in the big scheme, but still, I’m annoyed at myself. :-) ) Anyway…
Three states with updates today, all via Green Papers as usual:
- Pennsylvania: Continued updates as more sources get indication on the preferences of the delegates elected in Pennsylvania. The previous Pennsylvania totals, after my correction mentioned above, had been… Romney 11, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, 49 TBD. They are now Romney 27, Paul 5, Gingrich 3, Santorum 3, 34 TBD. Net for the day… Romney +16, Gingrich -1.
- Colorado: 2 delegates previously listed as uncommitted move to the Paul column. Net for the day, Paul +2. New total for the state Romney 14, Santorum 6, Paul 2, 14 TBD.
- Virgin Islands: 1 previously uncommitted delegate moves to the Romney column. So Romney +1
So total for the day: Romney +17, Paul +2, Gingrich -1
In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:
- Romney: 31.0% -> 29.7%
- Santorum: 94.4% -> 96.2%
More updates from Pennsylvania and other locations as they come in. Next batch of actual contests are North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia on May 8th. I’m guessing Romney will get the 29.7% of delegates he needs there. Yawn.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
First big primary day in awhile, and of course Romney dominates.
- New York: Romney gets all 92 delegates from today. Total in NY now Romney 94, Gingrich 1
- Pennsylvania: This is the only tricky one of the day. Delegates were elected by name, not by presidential preference. So they are all officially uncommitted, but in general these delegates do support someone, it just takes more work to figure out who. Green Papers’ initial estimate from the primary is Romney +11, Paul +5, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3, and 39 uncommitted or unknown. That is obviously a lot of uncommitted/unknown, so there will probably be future updates as the preferences of those delegates become known. Also 10 at-large delegates won’t be chosen until June and two superdelegates have yet to publicly express a preference. The total in PA is now Romney 12, Paul 5, Gingrich 4, Santorum 3, TBD 48. (GP has Romney 11, TBD 49, but I think they forgot the one Romney superdelegate.)
- Connecticut: Romney wins all 25 delegates from the primary. New CT total: Romney 26, TBD 2
- Rhode Island: Romney gets 12 delegates from the primary, Paul gets 4. New RI Total: Romney 15, Paul 4
- Delaware: Romney gets all 17 delegates from the primary. No delegates had been allocated previously and none are left, so total is just Romney 17
So, for the day… Romney +157, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3. Romney gets 90.8% of the delegates today. Way more than the 40.2% he needed to stay on track to get to 1144.
And with this, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are both mathematically eliminated. More specifically, if they were now to get 100% of the remaining delegates they would still not get to 1144. In order to get to 1144, they would actually need to take delegates away from the other candidates, either through final results in caucus states being better for them than earlier estimates, or through actual defections. Both are possible. However, neither will happen in large enough numbers to change anything, absent something catastrophic that causes Romney to actually drop out. Uh, which is highly unlikely.
For the remaining two candidates, in terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:
- Romney: 40.2% -> 30.9%
- Santorum: 80.1% -> 94.5%
So, theoretically Santorum could still catch up and win by getting 95% of the remaining delegates. Needless to say that won’t happen. His already long odds were made worse by suspending his campaign.
Meanwhile, neither Gingrich or Paul have suspended their campaigns. There are indications Gingrich might do so soon despite previous vows to stay in until Tampa. Paul has shown no signs of stopping.
The 31% of the remaining delegates Romney needs to wrap this up should be very easy for him to get. But we still have to wait for the calendar. So the march goes on…
Update 2012 Apr 27 12:34 UTC:
I was incorrect about the Pennsylvania count above and had misread Green Paper’s statement. In fact the new total in Pennsylvania was indeed Romney 11, not Romney 12. There were 10 new Romey delegates added to the count, not 11. They did not forget the one superdelegate. I just got twisted around thinking the 11 was a delta from the election instead of a new total, which would have left one delegate out. But it was indeed the new new total.
This makes the total for this day Romney +156, Paul +9, Gingrich +4, Santorum +3.
That gives Romney 90.7% of the delegates for the day instead of 90.8%.
This also changes Romney’s “% needed to win” to 31.0% instead of 30.9%. Santorum’s becomes 94.4% instead of 94.5%.
These changes are too small to be visible on the graph above, but will be reflected on future updates.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
As I mentioned Sunday, Minnesota finished up Congressional District Conventions over the weekend. These determine 24 of the 40 delegates for Minnesota. (13 more will be determined at the state convention in a few weeks and the last three are superdelegates.) Of those 24 delegates, 20 went to Ron Paul, 2 went to Santorum, and the other 2 were filled by delegates with unknown preferences.
The Green Papers estimate for Minnesota’s 40 delegates prior to these results was Santorum 17, Paul 10, Romney 6, Gingrich 5 and 2 yet to be determined. Obviously given the CD Convention results, this estimate needed to be revised.
The way Green Papers did this was to use the CD results then allocate the 13 delegates which will be determined at the state convention according to the February caucus results. (Then add in the one super with a known preference.) I would have allocated by analogy to the CD results instead, but this works.
With that, the new estimate is Paul 24, Santorum 8, 2 Romney, 2 Gingrich, with 4 yet to be determined. This makes Minnesota the first state where Paul has “won” the state… meaning he has more delegates than anyone else according to current estimates. (He is also currently tied in the estimates for Iowa, but may pull ahead by the time that process finishes.)
In any case, these new estimates give us a net change for the day of Paul +14, Gingrich -3, Romney -4, Santorum -9.
This is a big enough victory for the day that Paul actually improves his position in the race… which is a pretty tall order for any non-Romney at this stage. For today anyway, Paul is on a pace to catch up and win the nomination! Of course, most days won’t be like today. Structurally they can’t be. But hey… Good day for Ron Paul! Just a bit too little and too late to actually do much other than embarrass Romney a little.
So, in terms of “% of Remaining Needed to Win”:
- Romney: 39.9% -> 40.2%
- Santorum: 79.4% -> 80.1%
- Gingrich: 89.7% -> 89.8%
- Paul: 96.8% -> 95.3%
Next up… actual new primaries! New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware should all have results in my next update. It will be interesting to see how big the non-Romney delegate haul is. At this point, votes for non-Romneys are essentially anti-Romney protest votes and Paul die-hards. Romney needs 40.2% of the delegates to be on pace to win. With Santorum out and Gingrich’s campaign in sleeper mode, this should be a fairly easy target. If he doesn’t manage that… he’ll still be the nominee… but people would call out his continued failure to wrap this up.
He will almost certainly get the 40% he needs though. Who are we kidding, this is over.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
We finally have some results that aren’t just a handful of superdelegates, or minor revisions to a previous state’s tentative results. We have actual new results coming out of a state’s process. In this case, Missouri just finished its Congressional District Conventions, which allocate 24 of the state’s 52 delegates. (The rest will be determined at the State Convention on June 2, or are superdelegates.)
So… how did it turn out?
Romney 12, Santorum 7, Paul 4, Gingrich 1
With 50% of the delegates, Romney exceeds the 40.1% of the delegates he needed to be on pace to get to 1144. None of the rest come even close to the percentages they needed.
In terms of “% of Remaining Needed to Win”:
- Romney: 40.1% -> 39.9%
- Santorum: 78.4% -> 79.4%
- Gingrich: 87.9% -> 89.7%
- Paul: 95.1% -> 96.8%
Now, I’m sure Romney would have liked to have gotten significantly more than 50% here. But 50% will do. He’s comfortably on track to get to where he needs to be, and of course everybody else is still racing toward elimination.
Having said that, we should have the results from Minnesota’s Congressional District Conventions soon. Green Papers hasn’t finalized their results for Minnesota yet, and they haven’t been updating their totals based on the partial results that have been trickling out since March 31st, but they have been updating their notes on the process and all the indications are that… wait for it…
Ron Paul will walk away with more than 83% of the delegates from this stage of the Minnesota process… with Romney completely shut out, getting no delegates at all. Of course, Paul would need to be getting about 97% to be on a pace to catch up and win, but still… 83% is pretty impressive.
That is getting ahead of things though. We’ll talk about Minnesota once Green Papers updates their delegate total from the initial estimates they made after the caucuses in February. For the moment, that hasn’t happened yet.
(Edited 2012 Apr 24 05:44 UTC to add my standard intro paragraph which I had forgotten when I first posted this.)
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
On Friday Romney had a meeting with the RNC, all of whom are automatic delegates to the convention and most of whom are superdelegates. (Some are not because their votes are bound by the primary or caucus results in their states.) If they wanted a picture with Romney, they had to sign a form saying they promise to support Romney at the convention. There are reports that over 100 of those present signed the form. Some of them checked a box asking that this fact not be made public because of elections they are running in, etc. Others said this could be made public. The Romney campaign hasn’t released those names yet. Maybe next week. So potentially there will be a big jump in Romney’s superdelegate numbers sometime very soon. In the mean time, DCW was able to verify five more superdelegates publicly endorsing Romney.
In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:
- Romney: 40.4% -> 40.1%
- Santorum: 78.0% -> 78.4%
- Gingrich: 87.5% -> 87.9%
- Paul: 94.7% -> 95.1%
And the march to 1144 continues. Romney now has 688. We still have a decent way to go.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
Another minor update as Green Papers gets final delegate numbers from Tennessee. Back in March the results from the Primary were reported as Santorum 29, Romney 16, Gingrich 10. The final results turned out to be Santorum 29, Romney 17, Gingrich 9.
So for the day: Romney +1, Gingrich -1
In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:
- Romney: 40.5% -> 40.4%
- Santorum: 78.0% (No Change)
- Gingrich: 87.4% -> 87.5%
- Paul: 94.7% (No Change)
Can we please have some primaries again? This slow dripping of minor delegate changes is killing me. :-)
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
A couple minor updates today as we continue through the slow period before we have NY/PA/CT/RI/DE next week.
The totals for Alabama get updated from Santorum 23, Gingrich 14, Romney 11, 2 TBD to Santorum 23, Gingrich 13, Romney 12, 2 TBD. This apparently after resolving a dispute on the results in the 7th congressional district. So Romney +1, Gingrich -1.
Also, a superdelegate from Rhode Island endorsed Romney.
So for the day, Romney +2, Gingrich -1.
In terms of “% of remaining needed to win”:
- Romney: 40.59% -> 40.46%
- Santorum: 77.95% -> 78.02%
- Gingrich: 87.23% -> 87.39%
- Paul: 94.58% -> 94.66%
I know. Yawn. But we will track this to the bitter end. Look for much bigger moves next week.
|
|