This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
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Absent something really surprising happening… which you never know… could happen… the posts on the Democratic side at this point are essentially just going to be documenting Clinton’s slow but sure march to the Democratic nomination.
On March 5th if you go by states, you would see Sanders winning Kansas and Nebraska, while Clinton only won Louisiana.
Of course, states don’t matter. Delegates do. For the night, Clinton got 59 delegates and Sanders got 50.
In addition, since the post about Super Tuesday there were adjustments for finalized Super Tuesday results and new superdelegate counts. The net result was that Clinton gained an additional 22 delegates while Sanders added 13.
So total since then… Clinton +81, Sanders +63.
At the time of that last post, Clinton needed 40.52% of the remaining delegates to be on track to win. Sanders needed 59.54%.
Actual percentages since then? Clinton 56.25%, Sanders 43.75%. Clearly Clinton easily exceeded her targets, while Sanders… did not.
Actual delegate counts right now: Clinton 1127, Sanders 482, O’Malley 1.
You need 2382 delegates to win. 1610 have already been counted. There are 3153 left to be determined.
Where does that put things now?
Clinton now needs only 39.80% of the remaining delegates to win.
To catch up and win, Sanders would need 60.26% of the remaining delegates.
Next up is Maine. I haven’t found any polling on Maine. It seems like it might be a good state for Sanders. But is it 60.26% good? In delegate terms that would be 16 of the 25 pledged delegates. Guess we’ll find out.
[Update 15:56 UTC: Overnight updates gave Sanders 1 additional delegate in Louisiana and Clinton 1 less. So if I’d waited until morning to post this the title would have said Clinton won 58 to 51 rather than 59 to 50. But the substance of the post remains the same.]
[Update 2016-03-07 03:07 UTC: Another update gives Sanders yet another delegate in Louisiana and Clinton yet another less. So Louisiana now Clinton 37 to Sanders 14, and March 5th contests overall Clinton 57 to Sanders 52.]
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.
Update 08:40 to add actual delegate counts, how many are left, etc.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Podcast instead of a handful of big topics, Ivan and Sam once again go full show Lightning Round! We talk Election 2016, Sandra Bland, Cecil the Lion, MH370, Movies, Books, Windows 10, Gun Control… and lots more… 26 separate topics this week by our count! One for every letter of the alphabet! So start singing your ABC’s and listen!
Recorded 2015-07-23
Length this week – 1:37:02
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Show Details:
- Intro
- Yard Camping
- Kids and Tech
- Lightning Round I
- Sanders, O’Malley and Black Lives Matter
- More Trump!
- Thinning the Republican Field
- Lightning Round II
- Sandra Bland
- Police Escalations
- Cecil the Lion
- Internet Mobs
- Clinton Emails again
- Huckabee on Ovens
- Lightning Round III
- Piece of MH370 found?
- Movie: Thomas and Friends: The Adventure Begins
- Kids and Cars
- Curmudgeon’s Corner Eight Years Old!
- Onstar Hacking
- Tech Earnings
- Windows 10
- Book: Autobiography of Mark Twain: Volume I
- Lightning Round IV
- Cuba Embassy Opens
- We’re on Stitcher!
- Louisiana Shooting and Gun Control
- Jonathan Pollard Parole
- Turkish Air Strikes
- Syria
- Upcoming Republican Debate
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Romney |
Obama |
| Romney Best Case |
294 |
244 |
| Current Status |
206 |
332 |
| Obama Best Case |
190 |
348 |
No states were called between 01:45 UTC and 02:00 UTC, but a ton were called between 02:00 UTC and 02:15 UTC:
- Romney: KS, LA, NE-All, NE-1, ND, SD, TX, WY, MS
- Obama: MI, NY, NJ
All of these were no brainer expected states, except for Michigan. Michigan is the first state of the night to be called where the margin was less than 5% in the polls, so winning this state made a difference between the “best cases” that I present. Obama was ahead here by 4.5%, so a win here was predicted, but it was a close state and one that Romney really needed.
As of the final update I made on election day, Michigan was the tipping point state. That means Romney had to win all the states he was doing better in than Michigan PLUS Michigan in order to win. He just lost Michigan, which means he now needs a state he was further behind in that Michigan in order to win.
This is very bad news to Romney. His path to victory is now not quite impossible, but very close. Let’s look:
With all the states he has already won, plus the uncalled states where Romney was ahead by more than 5%, he had 190 electoral votes. Then the areas he was ahead in:
- Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
- North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead
That gets Romney to 206. He needs 63 more electoral votes. Looking at the remaining states that haven’t yet been called:
- Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
- Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
- Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
- New Hampshire (4): 2.8% Obama lead
- Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
- Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
- Pennsylvania (20): 4.8% Obama lead
- Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead
If Romney wins all of those through Pennsylvania, it gets him to 288 electoral votes, which wins him the Presidency. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania to win, he needs every other one of those states, including Nevada, which would get him to 274. If he does win Pennsylvania, then he could afford to lose Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd (and Nevada).
But that is a very tall order! And there will be another update coming soon…
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination. If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
I mentioned yesterday that there was some disagreement on interpretation of the rules for how delegates would be allocated in Louisiana. Green Papers said Santorum 13, Romney 7. @FHQ said Santorum 10, Romney 5 and some uncommitted delegates. My charts use the Green Papers Numbers. Well, since yesterday’s update the Louisiana Republican party weighed in… and it was 10-5, not 13-7. So @FHQ was right and wins that argument. So Green Papers updated their numbers.
So, net for today: Santorum -3, Romney -2.
This adjusts the numbers slightly, but does not change yesterday’s conclusions. Both Romney and Santorum didn’t do as well as they needed in Louisiana to move toward 1144. So it was still an “everybody loses” contest. Just slightly different numbers.
For today’s adjustment, the “% of remaining needed to win” changes like this:
- Romney: 47.34% -> 47.31%
- Santorum: 71.87% -> 71.82%
- Gingrich: 80.87% -> 80.54%
- Paul: 87.16% -> 86.81%
So essentially today is an “everybody wins!” day, simply because there are 5 more delegates available today compared to what was thought to be available yesterday.
The race summary remains the same. The non-Romneys are rushing toward mathematical elimination. It would take an event like Romney dropping out to give them an actual shot to get to 1144 before the convention. The most likely scenario remains Romney slowly but surely accumulating delegates and getting to 1144. The possibility of the non-Romneys blocking Romney from getting to 1144 remains remote, but not yet so remote that I’m ready to say outright that it is impossible.
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination. If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.
So, Santorum has a “big win” in Louisiana. But, unfortunately for him, not big enough. Green Papers’ Louisiana Results give 13 delegates to Santorum and 7 to Romney. Gingrich and Paul get nothing. Louisiana also has 26 more delegates that will be determined by other means. (Note that there is some question on interpretation of the delegate rules. @FHQ says 10 Santotum, 5 Romney and some uncommitted delegates. We use Green Papers as our source, and they will update if it becomes clear their interpretation of the rules was wrong.)
So with a 13-7 split, that is 65% Santorum. To actually be on a pace to catch up and win, he needed to get 71.8% of the delegates. Didn’t happen. Thus with his “big win” Santorum still moves closer to mathematical elimination. That is some win!
Of course, Romney also didn’t get the delegate levels he needed to be on the pace he needs. He needed 47.1% of the delegates. The 35% he gets with his 7 delegates is well below that.
So, it’s an “everybody loses!” day. Bottom line is that Louisiana doesn’t change much. The three non-Romney’s are racing inevitably toward elimination. They are just too far behind to catch up absent something as major as Romney dropping out of the race… which I don’t think Romney is thinking about doing at this point. Meanwhile, Romney is in a position to eventually win just by continuing to collect delegates at the same pace he has been. Romney has collected 53% of the delegates so far. If he just keeps chugging at those margins, he’ll get to 1144 eventually. But… the non-Romney’s collectively have gotten 47% of the delegates. If they can up that to 53%, then they can still collect enough delegates to block Romney.
47% to 53% is a big move in a political race. But it is still not out of the realm of the possible. (It is getting close though.) A few big slips by Romney. One of the non-Romney’s doing something really impressive. It COULD happen. It is unlikely though. As I’ve said before here, as it becomes clear that none of the non-Romney’s can actually win, it will be harder and harder for them to actually get delegates. So it is far more likely that the percentage of delegates the non-Romneys can manage will decline as we go forward.
“% of remaining needed to win” update based on today’s numbers:
- Romney: 47.1% -> 47.3%
- Santorum: 71.8% -> 71.9%
- Gingrich: 79.6% -> 80.9%
- Paul: 85.8% -> 87.2%
We’re still not quite to the half way mark. 46.5% of the delegates allocated (or estimated) at this point.
Next up: DC, Maryland, Wisconsin on April 3rd. All winner take all states, so likely to have a bigger impact.
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