Abulsme.com: Election 2016

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Because I have a Superbrain!

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam talks about:
* Wang/Silver Nerdfight
* Pros vs Amateurs (like me) on Election Models
* Presidential Security
* Ebola Outbreak
* Podcast Speeds

Recorded on 3 Oct 2014

Length this week – 1:13:23


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Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-02 (UTC)

01:30:52 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in NJ from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-29 – Clinton 50% to Christie 40% http://t.co/MaV92WEwzg
01:30:59 Clinton vs Christie state category change: NJ has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/MaV92WEwzg
01:33:33 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in NJ from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-29 – Clinton 53% to Bush 32% http://t.co/CB5hXL5Xi2
01:36:12 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in NJ from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-29 – Clinton 55% to Paul 31% http://t.co/IJ8prhS6tP

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-01 (UTC)

05:44:30 Poll Added: PPP in IA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 43% to Bush 43% http://t.co/ak1VAdliOw
05:46:55 Poll Added: PPP in IA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 45% to Christie 41% http://t.co/2quTqFZ7Bg
05:50:27 Poll Added: PPP in IA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 47% to Cruz 39% http://t.co/0yw6ouacVZ
05:58:07 Poll Added: PPP in IA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 46% to Huckabee 42% http://t.co/dngYzcoyz5
06:00:05 Poll Added: PPP in IA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 47% to Paul 42% http://t.co/zKSxt7IZqp
06:00:11 Clinton vs Paul state category change: IA has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/zKSxt7IZqp
06:04:22 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 41% to Bush 49% http://t.co/IBBl1JAuvv
06:06:38 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 44% to Christie 42% http://t.co/CdlZRAYMa0
06:06:44 Clinton vs Christie state category change: LA has moved from Strong Christie to Weak Christie http://t.co/CdlZRAYMa0
06:09:30 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 44% to Cruz 47% http://t.co/3QW7FZDHKh
06:12:57 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 43% to Huckabee 50% http://t.co/9FoHYIwYY5
06:13:06 Clinton vs Huckabee state category change: LA has moved from Solid Huckabee to Strong Huckabee http://t.co/9FoHYIwYY5
06:15:50 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 46% to Jindal 45% http://t.co/p6GdVlKBrj
06:18:16 Poll Added: PPP in LA from 2014-09-25 to 2014-09-28 – Clinton 43% to Paul 47% http://t.co/7dzi0pUrKm
06:39:46 Clinton best case vs Christie has changed: Clinton 363 to Christie 175 -> Clinton 371 to Christie 167 http://t.co/SMUjB5rzBR
06:49:23 Paul best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 311 to Paul 227 -> Clinton 317 to Paul 221 http://t.co/WUZ4oWSOh1

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-25 (UTC)

19:08:37 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2014-09-13 to 2014-09-19 – Clinton 47% to Christie 37% http://t.co/8M0GgF0Rew
19:08:43 Clinton vs Christie state category change: VA has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/8M0GgF0Rew
19:10:47 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2014-09-13 to 2014-09-19 – Clinton 51% to Paul 35% http://t.co/GYdXzIVjF0
19:10:54 Clinton vs Paul state category change: VA has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton http://t.co/GYdXzIVjF0
19:13:06 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2014-09-13 to 2014-09-19 – Clinton 50% to Ryan 37% http://t.co/jQGtvqAoRT
19:13:13 Clinton vs Ryan state category change: VA has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton http://t.co/jQGtvqAoRT
19:36:01 Christie best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 280 to Christie 258 -> Clinton 293 to Christie 245 http://t.co/9eMXyFkvmb
19:41:09 Clinton vs Paul tipping point change: Clinton by 8.8 in VA -> Clinton by 9 in OR http://t.co/wq50iVTO1E
19:46:29 Actually, bug there I will fix shortly. Clinton vs Paul tipping point did change, but new is Clinton by 8.8 in OH. http://t.co/dl9VpqkAWD in reply to ElecCollPolls
22:59:54 Tipping point bug fixed. (It had to do with the edge case where I use 6 polls when 5 poll avg is on a category boundary.)

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-24 (UTC)

05:12:01 Poll Added: PPP in AR from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 42% to Bush 46% http://t.co/IHNbxWPHhp
05:12:07 Clinton vs Bush state category change: AR has moved from Strong Bush to Weak Bush http://t.co/IHNbxWPHhp
05:15:20 Poll Added: PPP in AR from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 42% to Christie 41% http://t.co/D9OBZFVcJB
05:15:27 Clinton vs Christie state category change: AR has moved from Weak Christie to Weak Clinton http://t.co/D9OBZFVcJB
05:17:55 Poll Added: PPP in AR from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 43% to Cruz 44% http://t.co/ADcM5lcdGg
05:18:02 Clinton vs Cruz state category change: AR has moved from Solid Cruz to Strong Cruz http://t.co/ADcM5lcdGg
05:20:01 Poll Added: PPP in AR from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 41% to Huckabee 53% http://t.co/151AMIOjE2
05:23:24 Poll Added: PPP in AR from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 43% to Paul 45% http://t.co/HlE1vdPgZN
05:26:38 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 39% to Bush 44% http://t.co/e3Y6YPxsul
05:28:40 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 36% to Christie 46% http://t.co/bZnvgXpJ0b
05:30:16 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 39% to Cruz 46% http://t.co/Zwp2tbtw3L
05:32:02 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 40% to Huckabee 44% http://t.co/7faSjYeC0H
05:34:13 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 44% to Palin 38% http://t.co/eu4EDEoJRS
05:34:35 Clinton best case vs Bush has changed: Clinton 357 to Bush 181 -> Clinton 363 to Bush 175 http://t.co/5BlgrSTRH5
05:39:25 Clinton vs Christie expected case changed: Clinton 347 to Christie 191 -> Clinton 353 to Christie 185 http://t.co/1FfeXh09bz
05:44:05 Poll Added: PPP in AK from 2014-09-18 to 2014-09-21 – Clinton 40% to Paul 45% http://t.co/cvrhyTWBZo
06:36:03 Today’s new polls move Clinton vs Paul into my вЂњbest polledвЂќ slot, replacing Clinton vs Christie as my default view. http://t.co/uLzt8FLwoL

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-17 (UTC)

16:41:47 Poll Added: PPP in KS from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 40% to Bush 46% http://t.co/DHcrmFSESD
16:44:08 Poll Added: PPP in KS from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 40% to Christie 42% http://t.co/vSGT4a2gJW
16:44:16 Clinton vs Christie state category change: KS has moved from Solid Christie to Strong Christie http://t.co/vSGT4a2gJW
16:46:35 Poll Added: PPP in KS from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 44% to Cruz 41% http://t.co/up43Ufyq48
16:48:41 Poll Added: PPP in KS from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 42% to Huckabee 45% http://t.co/TYJ62qyB3f
16:51:28 Poll Added: PPP in KS from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 41% to Paul 43% http://t.co/R0BvOQxCTP
16:51:36 Clinton vs Paul state category change: KS has moved from Solid Paul to Strong Paul http://t.co/R0BvOQxCTP
16:55:23 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 43% to Bush 45% http://t.co/wDLSmEzTMd
16:57:47 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 45% to Christie 38% http://t.co/50W5VQvplX
16:59:55 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 48% to Cruz 40% http://t.co/kHAVtIPJVM
17:01:56 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 45% to Huckabee 46% http://t.co/yBYl0avcDa
17:05:04 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2014-09-11 to 2014-09-14 – Clinton 46% to Paul 41% http://t.co/VPd6LNkn59
17:54:00 With today's poll updates, Clinton vs Huckabee moves into the top 5 "best polled" candidate combinations, displacing Clinton vs Ryan.
17:55:53 Current top five combos are Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Cruz in that order.
17:57:11 Going beyond that would get you Clinton v Ryan, Clinton v Rubio, Biden v Christie, Biden v Cruz and Biden v Rubio to round out the Top 10.
17:58:21 I base "best polled" on a weighted average of the length of time covered by the five poll average, with higher weight given to close states.

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-10 (UTC)

02:05:00 Poll Added: Fairleigh Dickinson in NJ from 2014-09-01 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 45% to Christie 42% http://t.co/IIkhyU0vNQ
02:05:05 Clinton vs Christie state category change: NJ has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton http://t.co/IIkhyU0vNQ
02:12:14 Poll Added: Fairleigh Dickinson in NJ from 2014-09-01 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 48% to Paul 33% http://t.co/foGEQJJzfg
02:23:06 Poll Added: Fairleigh Dickinson in NJ from 2014-09-01 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 51% to Bush 32% http://t.co/frnaf0ho82
02:33:06 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 46% to Bush 44% http://t.co/QCoHn7wlKr
02:33:12 Clinton vs Bush state category change: FL has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton http://t.co/QCoHn7wlKr
02:39:30 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 46% to Christie 38% http://t.co/EDRggcT9G1
02:43:20 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 51% to Cruz 36% http://t.co/p0rEE7ND6K
02:47:34 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 49% to Huckabee 40% http://t.co/IhAjmtlW9m
02:47:42 Clinton vs Huckabee state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/IhAjmtlW9m
02:52:06 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 48% to Paul 40% http://t.co/9OCaRlge94
02:59:01 Poll Added: PPP in FL from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 49% to Rubio 42% http://t.co/DOs0vaWx4A
03:12:49 Poll Added: PPP in MI from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 49% to Bush 38% http://t.co/4ZumA5bYs2
03:12:56 Clinton vs Bush state category change: MI has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton http://t.co/4ZumA5bYs2
03:34:20 Bush best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 317 to Bush 221 -> Clinton 288 to Bush 250 http://t.co/8OOyC7226K
03:35:35 Actually, Clinton v Bush is MI 5 poll avg is exactly a 10% Clinton lead, on category edge, so avg was supposed to pull in 6th poll, did not.
03:36:52 I just fixed that bug. With 6th poll, avg is only 9.9%, so category stays Strong Clinton, not Solid Clinton.
03:43:46 Clinton vs Huckabee tipping point change: Clinton by 4.7 in FL -> Clinton by 6.7 in WI http://t.co/UyBk5DLRGo
03:43:48 Huckabee best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 247 to Huckabee 291 -> Clinton 276 to Huckabee 262 http://t.co/UyBk5DLRGo
03:45:42 There is 1 other edge case I still have not addressed. If the 5th and 6th polls have the same middate, I really should include the 6th poll.
03:46:49 I will probably wait until I have a live example of that case to try to address it. Slightly tricker because of the way I'm calculating.
03:53:13 Poll Added: PPP in MI from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 48% to Christie 36% http://t.co/412xM38p3U
03:58:00 Poll Added: PPP in MI from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 51% to Cruz 37% http://t.co/rJwPSBaBJQ
04:02:18 Poll Added: PPP in MI from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 50% to Huckabee 38% http://t.co/4m8Qo9S0mU
04:06:58 Poll Added: PPP in MI from 2014-09-04 to 2014-09-07 – Clinton 49% to Paul 39% http://t.co/xyepWDzjJm
04:07:08 Clinton vs Paul state category change: MI has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/xyepWDzjJm
04:35:49 Clinton vs Christie tipping point change: Clinton by 6.9 in MI -> Clinton by 7.5 in MN http://t.co/Ho0IjQ96O1
04:44:12 Clinton vs Paul tipping point change: Clinton by 10 in OH -> Clinton by 8.8 in VA http://t.co/Oc7abGNlFe
04:48:28 Clinton vs Paul state category change: MI has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton http://t.co/kdPUirZADa
05:01:04 That looks like a duplicate tweet on the Clinton vs Paul change in Michigan. Second dup in recent days. Sigh. Guess more debugging needed.
05:25:23 Made a change that might have fixed that particular duplicate tweet bug. Thanks for your patience.

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-05 (UTC)

20:07:41 [Blog Post] "Curmudgeon’s Corner: It would be perfect if I hadn’t gotten caught!" http://t.co/3kI0Vv4T2W

Curmudgeon’s Corner: It would be perfect if I hadn’t gotten caught!

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about:
* Kids / Bikes
* No Strategy / ISIS / 2nd terms
* Romney 2016 / Election 2016
* Nude Picture Leak
* Oculus / 3D

Recorded on 4 Sep 2014

Length this week – 1:31:13


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Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-03 (UTC)

01:54:19 The Palin vs Clinton status change posted earlier was not actually new. Apologies for the extra post. in reply to ElecCollPolls

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Because I have a Superbrain!

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-02 (UTC)

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Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-24 (UTC)

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: It would be perfect if I hadn’t gotten caught!

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-09-03 (UTC)

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