This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-06 (UTC)

  • 16:15:00 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in AL from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 36% to Trump 57% https://t.co/qdw2FwVQtv
  • 16:16:43 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in AL from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 31% to Trump 53% https://t.co/hWZKbcnSl7
  • 16:16:49 Full 4P results logged: WaPo w/4P [2] in AL from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 31% to Trump 53% to Johnson 8% to Stein 2%
  • 16:20:36 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in AK from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 39% to Trump 47% https://t.co/boyjVBu5qh
  • 16:22:09 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in AK from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 31% to Trump 38% https://t.co/mzmW4Jkzvu
  • 16:22:14 Full 4P results logged: WaPo w/4P [2] in AK from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 31% to Trump 38% to Johnson 19% to Stein 7%
  • 16:25:10 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in AZ from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 45% https://t.co/SItuF02Jix
  • 16:26:47 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in AZ from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 37% to Trump 39% https://t.co/m2zqP5Rue5
  • 16:26:52 Full 4P results logged: WaPo w/4P [2] in AZ from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 37% to Trump 39% to Johnson 13% to Stein 4%
  • 16:30:40 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in AR from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 54% https://t.co/7PgMrlZC3q
  • 16:32:08 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in AR from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 37% to Trump 46% https://t.co/qxnLsmRXwt
  • 16:32:13 Full 4P results logged: WaPo w/4P [2] in AR from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 37% to Trump 46% to Johnson 11% to Stein 3%
  • 16:36:13 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in CA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 57% to Trump 33% https://t.co/lQVNSNATDv
  • 16:38:18 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in CA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 49% to Trump 28% https://t.co/2XtdOBU29W
  • 16:38:24 Full 4P results logged: WaPo w/4P [2] in CA from 2016-08-09 to 2016-09-01 – Clinton 49% to Trump 28% to Johnson 12% to Stein 7%

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-05 (UTC)

  • 17:33:30 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in NC from 2016-08-30 to 2016-09-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% https://t.co/7TcRITDWZW
  • 17:33:35 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in NC from 2016-08-30 to 2016-09-02 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 17:38:03 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in PA from 2016-08-30 to 2016-09-02 – Clinton 45% to Trump 37% https://t.co/IZu43tSAbe
  • 17:38:09 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in PA from 2016-08-30 to 2016-09-02 – Clinton 45% to Trump 37% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 18:22:28 Just NC and PA polls to add today. Done. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs this time.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-04 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-02 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-01 (UTC)

  • 18:12:37 Poll Added: Marquette RV [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 42% to Trump 37% https://t.co/ZxjWHPL9rk
  • 18:14:24 Poll Added: Marquette RV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 37% to Trump 32% https://t.co/bTTzsAqfG9
  • 18:14:29 Full 4P results logged: Marquette RV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 37% to Trump 32% to Johnson 11% to Stein 7%
  • 18:16:33 Poll Added: Marquette LV [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 45% to Trump 42% https://t.co/Wsi1ImV5tS
  • 18:19:04 Poll Added: Marquette LV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% https://t.co/JT8v6KubXG
  • 18:19:09 Full 4P results logged: Marquette LV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% to Johnson 10% to Stein 4%
  • 18:24:36 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in WI from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 43% to Trump 38% https://t.co/hQvkaBG5xg
  • 18:24:41 Full 4P results logged: Monmouth w/4P in WI from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 43% to Trump 38% to Johnson 7% to Stein 3%
  • 18:29:45 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in NY from 2016-08-28 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 52.1% to Trump 34.2% https://t.co/GWILShgY2D
  • 18:29:50 Full 4P results logged: Emerson w/4P in NY from 2016-08-28 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 52.1% to Trump 34.2% to Johnson 8.2% to Stein 2.9%
  • 18:33:01 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in NC from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 43.4% to Trump 44.8% https://t.co/0LA0XDI8Wa
  • 18:33:06 Full 4P results logged: Emerson w/4P in NC from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 43.4% to Trump 44.8% to Johnson 7.7% to Stein 2.1%
  • 18:36:59 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in PA from 2016-08-26 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% https://t.co/9DLhCRtdPX
  • 18:37:04 Full 4P results logged: Monmouth w/4P in PA from 2016-08-26 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% to Johnson 6% to Stein 1%
  • 18:43:30 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in OH from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 43.4% https://t.co/ZoSkdzBCor
  • 18:43:35 Full 4P results logged: Emerson w/4P in OH from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 43.4% to Johnson 9.8% to Stein 2.1%
  • 18:47:20 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 45.9% to Trump 42.7% https://t.co/hKhPiJi9fb
  • 18:47:25 Full 4P results logged: Emerson w/4P in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 45.9% to Trump 42.7% to Johnson 6.9% to Stein 1.5%
  • 18:50:06 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in MI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 39.5% https://t.co/A7tqW5qF4M
  • 18:50:11 Full 4P results logged: Emerson w/4P in MI from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 39.5% to Johnson 6.5% to Stein 2.5%
  • 18:50:18 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/A7tqW5qF4M
  • 18:56:59 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 4.4 in OH -> Clinton by 3.8 in WI https://t.co/cqj308IoUC
  • 19:36:52 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 257 to Trump 281 -> Clinton 241 to Trump 297 https://t.co/lQl2kHXbHe
  • 21:49:49 Poll Added: Hampton in VA from 2016-08-24 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 43% to Trump 41% https://t.co/A2hLX6oDMl
  • 21:54:47 Poll Added: F&M RV [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% https://t.co/Wk3lIbhGnk
  • 21:55:41 Poll Added: F&M RV [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% https://t.co/60Zvv9Ze6V
  • 21:56:50 Poll Added: F&M RV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% https://t.co/KybfDV554B
  • 21:56:55 Full 4P results logged: F&M RV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 21:59:42 Poll Added: F&M LV [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 47% to Trump 40% https://t.co/0nvpSOE4bj
  • 22:01:24 Poll Added: F&M LV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 45% to Trump 40% https://t.co/we0O7C4vNB
  • 22:01:29 Full 4P results logged: F&M LV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-29 – Clinton 45% to Trump 40% to Johnson 5% to Stein 3%
  • 22:01:37 Clinton vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/we0O7Cm7cb
  • 22:08:28 Poll Added: MetroNews w/4P in WV from 2016-08-09 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 31% to Trump 49% https://t.co/0uOXrubYvQ
  • 22:08:33 Full 4P results logged: MetroNews w/4P in WV from 2016-08-09 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 31% to Trump 49% to Johnson 10% to Stein 5%
  • 22:13:06 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in AZ from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 40% to Trump 44% https://t.co/99Pjud14u3
  • 22:13:11 Full 4P results logged: Gravis w/4P in AZ from 2016-08-27 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 40% to Trump 44% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 22:16:30 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 241 to Trump 297 -> Clinton 221 to Trump 317 https://t.co/ae9bpElIYI
  • 22:17:34 Poll Added: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 40% to Trump 39% https://t.co/9IfdU2o4sQ
  • 22:17:39 Full 4P results logged: Predictive Insights w/4P in AZ from 2016-08-25 to 2016-08-27 – Clinton 40% to Trump 39% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-31 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-30 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-29 (UTC)

  • 01:33:55 Changing averages to re-weight polls that report multiple results going faster than I expected. See change in CA: https://t.co/gCYq0oZsfT
  • 01:37:55 The CA change is live on the CA page & summary page. Next up will be checking a state where this changes the model. https://t.co/fkUUZh06oC
  • 02:06:20 CA/NY/MA now reflect the new logic. Going from most Dem to most Rep. No category changes yet. But breaking for dinner now. :-)
  • 06:52:24 Got to the first state (VA) where the logic change adjusts the historical bubble. Current state not changed yet. https://t.co/xUzv60lSov
  • 06:53:38 VA also changed the tipping point historical chart, although again not the current value. https://t.co/sftru5nLqD
  • 08:02:13 Everything on the spectrum from DC to OR, plus CT, is now using the new logic. 38/56 still 2 go, but I gotta call it a night. More tomorrow.
  • 16:04:20 Clinton vs Trump state category change: WI has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/pkgMxm1hVm
  • 16:17:12 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 267 to Trump 271 -> Clinton 257 to Trump 281 https://t.co/7LW0cbJldN
  • 16:25:59 The move of Wisconsin to the new rules was the first to actually change the current assessment. Bubble change: https://t.co/zJqQcRMW9C
  • 16:37:33 OK, DC to CT on the spectrum, plus WI, now using the new logic. But I have to go to the day job now. More tonight. https://t.co/FfatJxjqj1

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-28 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-27 (UTC)