This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
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Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans didn’t have years of superdelegates endorsing one candidate or another, so Iowa really was a clean slate. The very first delegates earned in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination. The headlines are of course that Trump underperformed the poll-based expectations letting Cruz slide to a win, while Rubio outperformed his expectations, coming in a close third. This is all true.
But it is also true that only a tiny fraction of the delegates have been allocated so far. None of the candidates got a majority in Iowa either. So nobody is actually yet on a track to overall victory. Cruz may be slightly ahead, but Trump and Rubio are right at his heels. Cruz is not in a dominating position. It really is a three person race.
Looking at the raw delegate graph quickly…
…you immediately notice that we just have a really boring graph with a few straight lines. And Rubio’s line and Trump’s line completely overlap too. As do Bush and Paul’s lines. That’s because this is our first real data point after everyone was just at zero.
All of the graphs are like this. So just this once, lets skip the graphs and look at the summary table instead:
I’ll note here that Green Papers has slightly different numbers. But the New York Times, Washington Post, and CNN all agree with the estimates above, so for the moment that is what we’ll go with here.
It is clear that Cruz/Rubio/Trump are in a separate class here than Carson/Bush/Paul. But even these three would need to nearly double their performance to actually be on a track to win, because, well, you have to be getting more than half of the delegates to win outright. 25% to 30% won’t get you there. So at some point, somebody has to start going over the 50% mark if there is going to be a winner.
There is plenty of time for that of course. Nobody is predicting a contested convention quite yet, as much fun as that would be.
We probably won’t see anyone over 50% after New Hampshire either, but how close we get may depend on the viability thresholds. In New Hampshire on the Republican side you need to get 10% of the popular vote to be eligible for delegates. Although this will definitely change in response to the Iowa results, at the moment RCP has Trump at 33.2%, Cruz at 11.5%, Kasich at 11.5%, Bush at 10.3%, and Rubio at 9.5%. The rest are pretty far from 10%. But that is four candidates all within a couple percent of 10%.
Depending on which of those ends up right above or right below the 10% threshold, you could see very different delegate results coming out of New Hampshire. Most likely, we’ll have three or four candidates over 10% and a mix of delegates, but in the extreme case, if all but Trump drops under 10%, then Trump gets all the delegates. So a wide range of things is possible based on really small movements from the current positions in the polls.
Final points here though to the people saying Iowa proves that Trump is done…
- Trump was pretty close in Iowa. A one delegate difference means almost nothing.
- Although the Iowa results may diminish it, Trump starts with a big lead in New Hampshire.
- Only 1.09% of the Republican delegates have been determined so far.
We have a three way race right now. It is not inconceivable that a 4th candidate could do well enough in New Hampshire to join that group. Things are just as up in the air and chaotic on the Republican side as they were before Iowa. Anything could still happen.
Stay tuned.
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.
Election Graphs will be rolling out our primary delegate race coverage before the Iowa caucuses, but in the mean time, we’ve just had the first state level general election polls of the New Year. It is a PPP poll in New Hampshire. There was only one candidate pair where the new polls changed my classification of New Hampshire though.
Clinton vs Bush
For all but a few days in November, Bush had held a lead against Clinton in my poll averages since the end of July. Just barely. But he had hung onto that lead. With the latest poll though, Clinton leads in four of the last five polls, and by enough to take a lead in the average. New Hampshire moves from “Weak Bush” to “Weak Clinton”. The lead is still slim at 2.2%, so the state is still very much in the “could easily go either way” category, but it is enough to put New Hampshire back in Clinton’s column in the case where we give each state to the current leader.
That little notch downward on the center line at the right hand side of the bubble is New Hampshire flipping to Clinton. We go from Clinton winning by 48 electoral votes, to Clinton winning by 56 electoral votes. Either way, Clinton is ahead, but the election is within the “bubble of uncertainty” since if you give Bush all the states where Clinton is ahead, but by less than 5%, Bush wins by 104 electoral votes.
A Clinton vs Bush matchup could go either way.
But, if the primary polls are to be believed, at this point Clinton vs Bush is a relatively unlikely scenario, so even though there were no other category changes, lets take a quick look at how the latest polls affected some of the other matchups.
New Hampshire Matchup Comparison
Looking at the five best polled candidate combinations nationally, the latest New Hampshire poll included three of the five (Bush, Trump and Cruz). In all three cases, the Republican weakened vs Clinton.
For Trump and Cruz though, this just meant Clinton’s already strong lead in New Hampshire got stronger. It makes no difference what so ever to their possible races against Clinton if they were to win the nomination.
Aside from Bush, the only one of these five that makes New Hampshire close is Paul, but that should be taken with a big grain of salt because he hasn’t been included in a general election match up poll in New Hampshire since August. So that data is a bit stale.
Looking beyond the top five though, to what is currently the sixth best polled combination by my metric, you actually see another candidate that makes New Hampshire close with Clinton, and in fact in that case the latest polls actually improved the Republican’s average. That would be Clinton vs Rubio:
Of the 10 candidate pairs included in the latest polls… Clinton and Sanders vs Bush, Carson, Cruz, Rubio and Trump… Clinton vs Rubio is the only combination where the Republican’s poll average improved.
Does this imply larger things for the country at large? No, not really. New Hampshire is a special case in many ways. It is getting a huge amount of attention right now due to the upcoming primary. What is going on there right now in terms of public opinion may or may not be reflected in trends elsewhere.
So, as usual, we need to just wait for more polls. Which states get polled in the next few months is probably going to be highly influenced by the primary calendar as well, so the picture we see in the state polls will be warped a bit by that.
And of course once we have actual delegate numbers in both parties showing which candidates are actually leading in the nomination races, it starts changing perceptions of the general election, which may in turn cause more movement in the state polls.
Keep checking in with Election Graphs. We’ll be launching our delegate tracking soon, and it looks like the kind of election cycle where watching the delegate situation carefully may actually be needed.
In other words, we’re almost at Iowa, and things are going to get crazy. Hold on and have fun!
304.0 days until the general election polls start to close.
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. And like Election Graphs on Facebook!
At long last, there has been enough state level polling in enough states over a long enough period of time that Trump makes it onto my “top five best polled candidate pairs” list. Until now, there simply was still more and better polling data around various other candidates, simply because they had been considered “contenders” for longer, and so therefore had amassed a wider variety of polls in more states. But no longer. It is time to look at Clinton vs Trump.
The various ups and downs over the last few months should not be considered real changes in Trump’s support. Instead, it is simply the the “average of the last five general elections” starting point that I use for each state gradually being replaced with real polling data on Clinton vs Trump. So we’ll only start looking at trends and changes starting now.
But where are we right now? With the usual caveats about how long it is until the election, lets do the rundown:
So… Clinton wins based on the current state level polling. But it is close. The tipping point state only has a Clinton lead of 2.4%. So 1.2% of people nationwide changing their minds, or the undecideds leaning Republican, or a systematic polling bias… all could easily wipe out that lead.
There is a lot of talk about how if Trump ends up as the nominee, we would see a Democratic win with margins unheard of since Reagan’s landslide over Mondale. This is by no means clear.
People point to how uncomfortable people are with Trump. For instance this CBS/NYT Poll from today shows 64% of the voting public “concerned or scared” about Trump becoming president. Sounds huge right? How can anybody win with numbers like that? But then you notice that, wait, in the same poll, 57% of the voting public are “concerned or scared” about Clinton becoming president. When you put those two together, it isn’t at all clear how things would work when you put the two head to head.
People talk about how Trump just couldn’t possibly win. How he alienates certain key voting blocs. How he will surely implode at some point. All sorts of reasons are mentioned. But a lot of them just boil down to “there is just no way, I don’t believe it.”
And they may be right that he won’t win. The analysis above shows Clinton winning over Trump. Most head to head polling nationally that I have seen shows Clinton winning. RCP’s Clinton vs Trump average has Clinton up by 3.3% today. But all indications with polling today show Clinton vs Trump as close. Not a Clinton blowout.
Now, to make explicit the caveat I noted at the top, there is a long time until the election. We don’t even have nominees yet. Trump winning the nomination is still one possibility among many. And even Clinton hasn’t wrapped things up yet. And a lot can happen in a campaign. General election polls this far out are NOT PREDICTIVE of the final result. They show us how things are RIGHT NOW at best. Things will move between now and next November.
But is there any reason to believe that all of the movement will be toward Clinton? That people will see the Clinton vs Trump comparison as the campaign rolls on and all gravitate to Clinton? It COULD work out that way.
But it is also quite possible that Clinton has bumps along the road that don’t look too great for her either. That the economy hits a rough spot. That Trump does what he has done so well against several primary opponents and finds just the right things to say at just the right moments to put Clinton in a negative light and turn people who were on the fence against her.
Clinton may well win a Clinton/Trump matchup. In fact if I had to wager on it right now, I’d bet on Clinton winning. And there is a chance Clinton could indeed pull off a landslide after a Trump melt down. But this is not a clear and obvious result at this point. Trump could in fact pull off a win. From the current position in the polls, he only has to move things ever so slightly to get there. Clinton winning, but not in a blowout, but in a close competitive race, is actually a very likely outcome.
Folks predicting that a Trump nomination automatically means a Democratic landslide… underestimate Trump at your own peril.
He has shown time and time again over the last few months that the “conventional wisdom” can be dead wrong. He may yet implode. But this should not be taken for granted. Right now he tops the polls nationally and in all the early states for the Republican nomination. And the general election polls show him doing better than Romney did in both the electoral college and the popular vote. To be clear… not winning… but doing better than Romney did… and within reach of a win if just a few things slid his way.
Looking for a second at other Clinton vs Republican pairings, and going past the “Top 5 best polled” combinations I usually talk about to pick up Rubio and Carson, lets see which of the Republicans are currently most competitive against Clinton based on my analysis. Here are the Top 5 Republicans in terms of how they fare in the Electoral College against Clinton:
- Clinton vs Rubio: Rubio wins by 2 electoral votes
- Clinton vs Carson: Clinton wins by 2 electoral votes
- Clinton vs Trump: Clinton wins by 38 electoral votes
- Clinton vs Bush: Clinton wins by 48 electoral votes
- Clinton vs Cruz: Clinton wins by 108 electoral votes
All the other Republicans are even further behind. For comparison, Romney lost by 126 electoral votes.
Rubio actually is slightly ahead right now, but barely. He is the only Republican who can say they are leading Clinton right now.
But really Clinton vs Rubio, Carson, Trump and Bush are all in the “too close to call” category. For each of these four Republicans, the “best case”, where the Republicans pick up the states where Clinton is ahead, but by less than 5%, result in a Republican win. These races are all competitive.
Cruz? Huckabee? Paul? Christie? None of these guys are even close in head to head matches with Clinton.
Trump is not in that category. Although meltdowns are always possible, and indeed, he hasn’t even gotten the nomination yet… Clinton vs Trump certainly has a strong possibility of being a close competitive race.
Do not underestimate Trump.
334.0 days until polls start to close on Election Day 2016. Buckle your seatbelt.
Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. And like Election Graphs on Facebook!
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan talk about the situation with Turkey, Russia and Syria for awhile, then cover Election 2016, with, of course, a concentration on the Trump phenomenon and what it continues to mean for the Republican nomination race. Those are the “big topics”, but we also touch on car shopping, some movies Sam watched recently, Argentina, Baby Hitler, demographics of the folks who like the podcast on Facebook, and a lot more.
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-11-26
Length this week – 1:34:54
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-0:15:23) But First
- Agenda
- Sam’s Electricity
- Ivan and Disney
- Ivan broken phone
- Ivan car shopping
- (0:16:26-0:31:44) International
- Turkey shoots down Russian plane
- Escalation?
- Syria Summit
- New Threats and Attacks
- (0:32:23-1:08:59) Election 2016
- Polls
- Alex Interlude
- Carson Implosion
- Trump not Imploding
- Can Trump win the Nomination?
- Can Trump win the Presidency?
- Trump Independant Run?
- Frontrunners 4, 8 and 12 years ago
- Betting Odds on the Candidates
- (1:09:44-1:34:34) Lightning Round
- Movie: Perks of Being a Wallflower (2012)
- Movie: Beyond Witch Mountain (1982)
- Movie: Minority Report (2002)
- Adelle Song
- TPP
- Airline Safety
- Racial Tensions
- Argentina President
- Baby Hitler
- Movie: Being John Malkovich (1999)
- Likes vs Downloads
- Curmudgeon’s Corner Facebook Demographics
This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan’s big topics are the Presidential race, the 2015 off-year elections, and the Sinai plane crash. In the Lightning Round we also touch on Bitcoin’s surge, Mythbusters, Twitter’s stars and hearts, and more! We start off though with Ivan on team building exercises, and Sam on locking himself out of his car in college. All the usual fun and excitement!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-11-05
Length this week – 1:43:46
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-0:12:02) But First
- Agenda
- On the road
- Team Building
- Locking keys in the car
- (0:13:20-0:45:21) Election 2016
- Debate Thoughts
- Carson Ahead!
- Bush Failure
- Trump on SNL
- Democratic Polls
- (0:46:23-1:05:37) Election 2015
- Local vs National Bifurcation
- How much trouble are the Dems in?
- Alternating Parties
- Kentucky Polling
- Interpreting Polls
- (1:06:54-1:20:29) Sinai Plane Crash
- GHWB Biography Tidbits
- The Plane Crash
- Was it a bomb?
- Change in tactics for ISIS?
- How will Russia respond?
- Airline Security Implications
- How long until we really know what happened?
- (1:21:34-1:43:26) Lightning Round
- Bitcoin surge
- Movie: Caravan of Courage
- Fred Thompson
- Mythbusters canceled
- YouTube Red
- Twitter stars and hearts
This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Ivan and Sam’s big topics are the Presidential race, the goings on in Congress, and Ivan’s musings on tech while attending Oracle OpenWorld. That gets you everything from the Benghazi hearing to the appeal of Carson to Speaker Ryan, the Budget Deal, and even Twitter and Hadoop. But it all starts with a bit on San Fransisco, and Sam breaking his foot. Fun!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-10-28
Length this week – 1:53:06
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-0:25:41) But First
- Agenda
- San Fransisco
- Sam broke his foot
- (0:26:20-0:48:45) Election 2016
- Future Sam on Republican Debate
- Ivan touches things
- Democratic Polls
- Clinton Benghazi Hearing
- Clinton turnaround
- Clinton vs the Republicans
- Trump losing… to Carson?
- The appeal of Trump and Carson
- Bush concentrating on Rubio
- The other Republicans
- (0:59:33-1:19:56) Congress
- Speaker Ryan
- Budget Deal
- CISA Passes Senate
- Politicians and Tech
- One more Carson thing
- (1:21:00-1:52:46) Tech Update
- Oracle OpenWorld
- What is Hadoop?
- Rise of the cloud
- Speed of Innovation
- Tech Company Earnings
- Apple
- Twitter
- Native Advertising
- Taking Companies Private or non-Profit
- Book: The Scarlet Plague
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner we apologize for last week’s show, then jump right in on Election 2016 analysis. We cover Biden’s exit and the results of last week’s debate, and what all that means for Clinton. Then we move on to the Republicans, talking about Trump’s staying power, how the only one close to him is Carson of all people, and how Bush is crashing and burning. With the Presidential race out of the way, we spend some time on Paul Ryan and the race for Speaker. Then finally in our lightning round we hit Back to the Future Day, iPads and iPhones, the hospital bombing in Afghanistan, book and movie reviews, and more!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-10-22
Length this week – 1:32:48
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-0:09:08) But First
- Sounds Ivan makes
- Allergy Meds
- Making fun of Ivan falling asleep
- Forced Break
- Future Debates
- Agenda
- (0:10:09-0:21:49) The Democrats
- Biden Out
- Debate Results
- Clinton’s Position
- Sad for Joe
- (0:22: 53-0:56:17) The Republicans
- Debate Demands
- Trump not going away
- Trump vs Bush
- Efforts to stop Trump
- Trump in the general?
- Thinning the crowd
- The Republican Split
- (0:56:56-1:11:18) Speaker of the House
- Future Sam Disclaimer
- Ryan’s Conditions
- Ryan’s Options
- Ryan the RINO
- Weakened Ryan?
- (1:12:07-1:32:28) Lightning Round
- Back to the Future Day
- iPad vs big iPhone
- Car bluetooth issue
- US hospital bombing
- Apple Music Subscriber Numbers
- Movie: Mud
- Book: The Son Also Rises
This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam and Ivan talk about Russia’s involvement in Syria, the chaos around the race for Speaker of the House, and of course the weekly rundown of the 2016 Presidential race. In the lightning round we spend way more than the allotted 2 minutes on self driving cars, but also touch on Jade Helm, drug prices, singing Happy Birthday, and more! Oh yeah, we also mention the coming apocalypse that will destroy us all!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-10-09
Length this week – 1:53:43
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Show Details:
- (0:00:15-0:05:33) But First
- (0:06:36-0:28:07) Syria and Russia
- Who is Russia Targeting?
- For Domestic Consumption?
- Good or bad for Russia?
- Accidental Escalation?
- US Reaction
- (0:28:45-0:48:19) Speaker of the House
- How the speaker election works
- McCarthy Out
- Paul Ryan?
- The other options
- (0:49:27-1:27:31) Election 2016
- Election Graphs Analysis: Rubio beats Clinton!
- Election Graphs Analysis: Others vs Clinton
- Continued Clinton Deterioration
- RCP vs Pollster
- Democratic Race
- Republican Race
- Carson/Bush Dumb Comments
- (1:28:46-1:53:23) Lightning Round
- Jade Helm
- Apocalypse?
- Self Driving Cars
- Predatory Drug Price Increase
- Happy Birthday Copyright
- Afghanistan Child Abuse
- Movie Serial: Radar Men from the Moon
This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam is joined by guest cohost Bruce. Together they discuss the Volkswagen cheating debacle, the situation with Syria and Syrian refugees, and of course this week’s developments in the 2016 Presidential race. In the final lightning round they also cover the Super Moon Eclipse, the Fed’s interest rate decision, that kid who made the clock, and more!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-09-24
Length this week – 1:51:54
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-0:10:38) But First
- No Ivan today, but we have Bruce
- This Week’s Agenda
- In House pre-School
- School Scheduling Craziness
- (0:11:40-0:26:02) Volkswagen Cheating
- What they did
- Possible Fixes
- Impact on VW
- What were they thinking?
- (0:26:41-0:48:13) Syria
- Refugee Crisis
- Turkish Connection
- What do you do?
- Russian Involvement
- Assad must go?
- Coordination with Russia
- (0:49:35-1:30:27) Election 2016
- Rand Paul
- The Xenophobic Racist Party
- Primary and Caucus Rules
- Carson on Muslims
- Walker Drops Out
- Republican Polling since the Second Debate
- Democratic Polling
- Deadlines for Shadow Candidates
- Clinton Declines
- More on Clinton Email
- (1:31:07-1:51:34) Lightning Round
- Super Moon Eclipse
- Queen Elizabeth Milestone
- Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions
- TV Show: Best of Carson
- Pope Visit / Chinese President Visit
- The kid who made the clock
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam and Ivan do it again, laying down a commentary track for the second Republican debate. Yes, the whole thing. All three hours of it. We kibitz as Trump and Carson and Bush and Cruz and Rubio and all the rest argue about the issues of the day. Oh, and of course, Fiorina. Ivan’s nemesis Fiorina. Ivan always has nice things to say about her. You’ve probably seen the debate, now listen to our take!
Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2015-09-18
Length this week – 3:13:32
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Show Details:
- (0:00:10-1:01:04) Debate Segment I
- Intro from Sam and Ivan
- Candidate Self-Introductions
- Trust Trump with Red Button?
- Outsiders vs Insiders
- Russia / Iran / China / Syria
- Should Kim Davis follow the law?
- Planned Parenthood and Government Shutdowns
- Fiorina’s Face
- (1:02:20-1:42:06) Debate Segment II
- Immigration
- Fiorina/Trump Business Records
- Tax Plans and Budgets
- Minimum Wage
- Political Styles
- (1:43:13-2:16:07) Debate Segment III
- Trump knowing Foreign Policy
- Would Jeb be a repeat of 41 and 43 on Foreign Policy?
- Iraq / Syria / Afghanistan
- Supreme Court / Abortion
- (2:16:46-2:42:24) Debate Segment IV
- Marijuana
- Guns
- Social Security
- Climate Change
- Vaccines and Autism
- (2:43:02-3:03:32) Debate Segment V
- Woman on the $10 bill
- Secret Service Codenames
- How will the world be different after your presidency?
- (3:04:33-3:13:12) Wrap Up
- Sam and Ivan predict the impact of the debate
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