Abulsme.com: 2012 Electoral College

Electoral College: Florida and Virginia move toward Obama

Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate. Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

Two states changing status today, both moving toward Obama:

First up Florida (29). Bottom line is Florida is too close to call. It has been too close to call for almost all of the last year. (The exception was two whole days in April where Obama’s lead in the five poll average went over 5%.) The rest of the time, one of the swingiest of swing states. Most recently, from May 10th until today, Romney was every so slightly ahead in the five poll average. Now Obama is ever so slightly ahead (0.3% actually). The next poll could move it back over the line to Romney. Bottom line, don’t put too much weight on what side of the line the too close to call states are on at any given moment. There is a reason I color them all the same on the map.

Next we have Virginia (13). Obama’s lead in the five poll average gets up to 5.0% which means by my classification it is no longer a swing state, but now gets listed as a “Weak Obama” state. Generally speaking that means he has a healthy lead at the moment, but not so big a lead as would allow him to take the state for granted and ignore it.

Virginia no longer being a swing state takes the possibility of winning it out of Romney’s best case in the summary, which leaves us in a fun place…

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	269	269
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	159	379

Yes, we are once again in a situation where even if Romney won all the states he is ahead in, plus all the states Obama is ahead in by less than 5%, the result would be a TIE in the electoral college, which would throw the election to the House. In such a scenario, given the makeup of the House, Romney would almost certainly win.

It is a fun scenario to think about. It is however an unlikely scenario. My model doesn’t produce odds, but Darryl’s at HorsesAss does, and in his latest analysis he has the odds of a 269/269 tie at just about 0.05%. So about 1 in 2000. So pretty long odds.

Which is a shame, because that would be really fun to watch. It hasn’t happened since 1824, isn’t it about time?

More to the point though, Romney is back to the very weak position he had in mid-April, and it seems that a lot of the gains he had been making in May have evaporated.

For now anyway.

Electoral College: Georgia goes Deep Red, Arizona Swings Again

Two states change status today. One moving toward Romney, one moving toward Obama:

First up, Georgia with its 16 electoral votes. Like Texas a couple days ago, Georgia is one of those states that nobody thinks will be a swing state, but some polling was showing it closer than one might expect, leading one to think that Romney might have wanted to spend at least a little time and money on shoring it up. The latest polls though have Romney’s lead there in my five poll average going over 10%. This moves it into the “Strong Romney” category which generally are quite safe for Romney and therefore can effectively be ignored in the campaign. These moves from Weak to Strong don’t change the range of outcomes in my model, but they do show Romney’s consolidation of his base states.

Second we have Arizona. This has been bouncing back and forth, over and under the Romney 5% lead line in the five poll average. With today’s update, the 5 poll average drops below 5% again, so we once again classify it as a Lean Romney Swing State. Now, the five poll average in Arizona has never shown Obama actually ahead in Arizona (although a couple individual polls in the last year have), so Arizona is not as swingy as, say, Florida or North Carolina, where the actual lead keeps changing hands. But it is close enough that the lead could be wiped out in a few days depending on the news cycle. So, for the moment, Arizona swings again.

In terms of our summary, since Georgia was never considered a real Obama possibility, only Arizona causes a change, improving Obama’s best case by 11 electoral votes:

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	282	256
Current Status	235	303
Obama Best Case	159	379

Note 2012 Jun 8 15:00 UTC: A correction noted June 8th moved a Tennessee change from “Weak Romney” to “Lean Romney” from March 2nd to May 24th, which would have been the day before this post. Updates between March 2nd and this post therefore incorrectly classified Tennessee.

Electoral College: Texas goes Dark Red (plus Wisconsin Correction)

One state changes status today, and once again it is a move in Romney’s direction.

Texas, which was never a swing state by any means, but which for awhile looked like it might be a state where Romney would at least need to watch his back and play a little defense just to be sure it didn’t surprise anyone by starting to get competitive, is now moving back into the “Strong Romney” camp as Romney’s lead in the five poll average jumps to 11%. This is a surprise to precisely no one. :-)

Since Texas was never a swing state, this does not change the summary.

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	282	256
Current Status	235	303
Obama Best Case	170	368

The general trend in Romney’s direction which I mentioned last time continues. But to make a big positive difference in his situation, Romney needs to be pulling current “Weak Obama” states into the swing state category. Strengthening his lead in states he is already nicely ahead in may feel good, but it doesn’t have an impact on the election.

Unfortunately, I also have a correction to make regarding some older Wisconsin data. Thanks to a tip from Darryl at HorsesAss I found that I had mistakenly included a Washington State poll from February in the Wisconsin data (as well as in the Washington State data). The end result of this is that prior to today on the chart showing the history of the race so far, Wisconsin had been classified as a “Strong Obama” state from March 2nd to April 19th. With the erroneous poll backed out, Wisconsin should only have been “Strong Obama” from March 30th to April 19th. Starting with the chart in today’s post, the light red line indicating the number of excess electoral votes Romney would have if he won all swing states plus all of Obama’s weak states has been corrected to reflect this. Notes have also been placed in the March 2nd and March 30th updates to point out this correction.

In either case, since May 17th I have classified Wisconsin as a “Lean Obama” swing state.

Sorry for the error. It happens every once in awhile. :-)

Electoral College: North Carolina Flips Back to Romney

One state changes status today:

North Carolina moves from Obama up by 2.0% to Romney up by 0.6%. Either way, this is too close to call. North Carolina remains a swing state. Now, the latest poll actually has Romney ahead by 8%. This might be the start of a larger move toward Romney. Or maybe it is an outlier. It is too early to tell. For now, North Carolina is now a swing state that leans ever so slightly to Romney.

Since North Carolina remains too close to call, this doesn’t change either candidate’s best case scenarios, which represent the range of reasonably possible results based on current state polling. The current line drops a nice ways in Romney’s direction though.

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	276	262
Current Status	235	303
Obama Best Case	170	368

Glancing at the chart, it looks like there has been a nice move in Romney’s direction lately. Lets look at some specific numbers and compare to one month ago. One month ago was the first time that the state polls showed Romney’s best case being to lose. Things clearly look much better for him today.

On April 18th, Romney’s best case showed him losing 260 to 278. Now he wins 276 to 262. He has moved 16 electoral votes (net) back into contention that a month ago seemed out of reach.

On the current line, a month ago Obama was winning 328 to 210. Now he is only winning by 303 to 235. Over the last month Romney has pulled a full 25 electoral votes (net) over the line toward him.

As for Obama’s best case… no change. The needle hasn’t moved at all. Obama hasn’t managed to pull more electoral votes into being competitive, nor have any moved out of reach.

So the movement has definitely been in Romney’s direction. If he keeps it up, we’ll start to see the map looking much more competitive soon.

By comparison, look at 4 years ago… the two best cases were much more symmetric around the tie line. The candidates were more evenly matched and the range of possibilities was not really favoring either candidate. It was clearly a wide open race four years ago. Having a lot more swing states helped.

The “current” status looked very similar to today’s though… we had McCain 302, Obama 236. Reverse the parties, and we are almost exactly in the same place we are today. Of course McCain did not go on to win. One should look at Obama’s current lead in the model with that in mind. There is still a long time until November.

Edit 2012 May 20 06:39 UTC вЂ“ Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as вЂњWeak RomneyвЂќ.

Electoral College: Wisconsin Swings!

One state changes status today, and it is a move in Romney’s direction:

It seems like it was just yesterday when I was saying that if Romney pulled Wisconsin back toward being competitive it would open up more paths for victory to him. And boom, today Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Wisconsin drops from 7.2% down to 4.0%.

Looking at the history here, this is a veritable collapse for Obama in Wisconsin. Up through mid-April I’d classified Wisconsin as “Strong Obama” because his leads there were over 10%. There was even one poll showing him up by 17%! On April 19th the lead dropped to below 10% and I reclassified Wisconsin as “Weak Obama”. But the trend in May has been decidedly and dramatically toward Romney. The two most recent polls show a tie and a 1% Obama lead. There haven’t yet been any Wisconsin polls showing Romney actually ahead, but the margin is now clearly small enough that Wisconsin could easily go either way.

So we add Wisconsin into Romney’s best case scenario:

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	282	256
Current Status	220	318
Obama Best Case	170	368

This makes Romney’s path to victory much more flexible. Florida (29), Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15) are still “must win”. If any one of those went to Obama, Romney would be done. If he lost Virginia (13) we’d have a 269-269 tie, which would probably result in a messy Romney victory in the House of Representatives. But with the new set of swing states, he could afford to lose any one of Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Wisconsin (10), or Iowa (6) and still win.

This move in Wisconsin is by far the most dramatic move we’ve seen toward Romney yet in the state polls. As more polls come in for other states, the question will be if this move in Wisconsin is the first sign of more general moves toward Romney in many states, or if there is something Wisconsin specific going on here… perhaps spillover from the Walker recall battle or some such.

A state moving all the way from “Strong” support of a candidate to being a swing state in less than a month though is a pretty dramatic move. If Romney can produce that kind of motion in a few more states, this analysis will very quickly start showing a much more competitive race!

Edit 2012 May 20 06:38 UTC вЂ“ Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as вЂњWeak RomneyвЂќ.

Electoral College: New Hampshire Goes Blue

One state changes status today. This time it is a move toward Obama:

The five poll average goes from an Obama lead of 4.1%, which we consider close enough to call the state a swing state, to a 7.1% lead, which we consider large enough to call New Hampshire a “Weak Obama” state. So it gets colored blue for now.

Since New Hampshire is no longer in our swing category, we take the possibility of winning it out of Romney’s Best case. This leaves us with:

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	272	266
Current Status	220	318
Obama Best Case	170	368

Romney’s new best case has him with just 3 more electoral votes than a 269-269 tie. This leaves his path to victory very narrow indeed. Assuming he retains all of the states he is ahead by more than 5% in, he would then have to still win ALL of the swing states that are currently too close to call. Florida (27), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), and Iowa (6) all become must win states. Lose any one of those, and the election is lost.

Of course, there is still plenty of time to pull more states that are currently “Weak Obama” states back into the swing state category. Pull Pennsylvania (20), Minnesota (10) or Wisconsin (10) back from Obama and make them competitive, and all of a sudden there would be a lot more ways to win. Colorado (9), Oregon (7), Nevada (6) or New Hampshire (4) would help too, just not as much. I suppose a play might even be made at Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1). At the moment though, Obama has healthy leads in those states (and the CD).

Edit 2012 May 20 06:35 UTC вЂ“ Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as вЂњWeak RomneyвЂќ.

Electoral College: Obama Weakens in Oregon

One state changing status today, and once again it is a move in Romney’s direction:

Obama’s lead in the five poll average drops from 12.1% to 9.7%. So we no longer classify it as “Strong Obama”, but rather “Weak Obama”. Now, the average is still well over 5% (despite the most recent poll) so Oregon is still nowhere near being a swing state. In the last year there hasn’t been a single poll showing Romney leading in Oregon. But the lead is no longer so big that Obama would be safe completely ignoring the state. Romney could cause some heartburn for Obama there if he put some effort into the state.

There have also only been five Oregon polls in the last year. If additional polling shows the current status is closer to the most recent poll than the previous four, and Romney continues to make gains, then Oregon may well move into swing state status later in the race.

Since Oregon is neither entering or leaving swing state status, the summary stays the same:

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	276	262
Current Status	220	318
Obama Best Case	170	368

Edit 2012 May 20 06:30 UTC – Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as “Weak Romney”.

Electoral College: Florida flips to Romney

One state changes status today, and it is a big one!

In my five poll average Florida moves from Obama up by 0.6% to Romney up by 0.2%. In either case, the bottom line is that Florida is too close to call and could go either way. The recent trend has been toward Romney though. We’ll see if Romney can pull Florida closer toward him, or if it remains a super close swing state. (Which is kind of what everyone expects.)

Anyway, a big state flips to the Romney side. This effects the “current” line by moving 29 electoral votes in Romney’s direction, but the “best cases” representing the range of possible outcomes stay the same:

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	276	262
Current Status	220	318
Obama Best Case	170	368

I had said I wouldn’t mention national level polls much, but there has been a big enough move there lately to warrant another mention. In the last couple of weeks there has been a substantial move toward Romney in the national polls, with the RCP Average dipping to an Obama lead of as low as 0.2% on May 8th, although it is back to 1.3% as of today. So why do the state numbers still show a massive Obama lead?

There are two answers, one is of course that the election is based on the states, not the national popular vote, and they do not always move in lockstep. But frankly, they DO usually move together, and only tend to diverge much in really close situations. The electoral college just usually shows an “amplified” version of the separation between the candidates in the national popular vote.

The more important factor right now is the second answer. State polls are still slow. There are new national polls every day. Meanwhile even important close states like Florida are still getting polled only once a week or so. Most states are polled even less frequently. This means that any state by state analysis will take longer to react to changes.

If the race narrows significantly and stays narrowed, the state numbers will start showing that soon enough. (And state polling in close states will get increasingly frequent as we approach the election, so this lag will decrease dramatically later in the year.)

Edit 2012 May 10 15:56 UTC – Moved summary box earlier in post.

Electoral College: PA and AZ stop swinging, OH swings again

Today is an exciting day. THREE states change categories.

First up, Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania moves over 5%, so we pull it out of swing state status again. We’d listed Pennsylvania as a swing state since April 14th. The five poll average now has Obama up by 5.8%. This is still pretty close to the boundary, so a poll or two in Romney’s direction could pull Pennsylvania back, but for now we no longer consider Romney winning PA in our “Romney Best Case” scenario.

Second, Ohio gets tighter. Obama’s lead drops to 4.6%, which means I consider it a swing state again, and Romney’s best case scenario now includes Ohio. Ohio has usually been considered a swing state, and our five poll average only showed a greater than 5% lead for Obama from Apr 20 until today… two weeks. So this is a return to Ohio’s “normal” status. Ohio (18 ev) moving back toward Romney balances the Pennsylvania (20 ev) move, so the overall loss to Romney’s best case is only 2 electoral votes.

Third, Arizona moves back toward Romney. There has been talk of Arizona being a red state that Obama may be able to pick off and win. For the moment though, that looks less likely. According to my definition, I consider states to be swing states if the lead in the five poll average is LESS than 5.0%. At the moment the five poll average in Arizona is EXACTLY a 5.0% Romney lead, so the state moves back into “Lean Romney”. So I take winning Arizona off the table for Obama. At least for the moment. One poll could bring it back.

Between all three of these changes, the net affect is to narrow the range of possibilities between our Obama best case and Romney best case scenarios. Obama’s best case is worse by 11 electoral votes, and Romney’s best case is worse by 2 electoral votes.

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	276	262
Current Status	191	347
Obama Best Case	170	368

Romney’s best case remains very narrow. In order to win the presidency, he needs to win all of the states where he is currently ahead, including Tennessee (11 ev) and Missouri (10 ev) where polls currently show his lead is slim, then he MUST win Florida (27 ev), Ohio (18 ev), North Carolina (15 ev) and Virginia (13 ev), all of which are states where Obama is currently ahead by a narrow margin. Then he needs to win either Iowa (6 ev) or New Hampshire (4 ev) both of which are also leaning Obama at the moment.

Edit 2012 May 4 18:07 UTC – Corrected map, I had forgotten to color Ohio gold.

Electoral College: Nevada and Montana move in Obama’s Direction

There are two states changing category today. In order by number of electoral votes:

Nevada moves from a “Lean Obama” swing state into “Weak Obama” territory as Obama’s lead in the five poll average goes above 5% to 5.6%. This is still close enough to 5% that a poll or two in Romney’s direction could easily move this back into swing state territory. For the moment though, this means I no longer consider this one of the states Romney could win in his “best case” scenario. So that best case scenario gets slightly worse for Romney, now with Romney winning by just 278 to 260.

Next, Montana moves from “Strong Romney” to “Weak Romney” as Romney’s lead in the five poll average drops below 10% to a 9.6% lead. Now, make no mistake, a 9.6% lead is still very substantial. Montana is a long way from being a swing state. But with a lead under 10% and a trend moving in Obama’s direction, Romney may want to deploy some resources to defend the state even if Obama’s odds of actually flipping the state are very slim (and they are). Now, Montana is only 3 electoral votes… so maybe Romney won’t bother. But with all of Romney’s paths to victory currently being very narrow ones, every electoral vote counts, so Montana will probably get some attention. Because Montana was not and is not a swing state, this does not however change anything in our summary.

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	278	260
Current Status	191	347
Obama Best Case	159	379

With this new status Romney’s path to victory is holding all of his current Strong and Weak states, then from the swing states winning all of: Florida (29 ev), Pennsylvania (20 ev), North Carolina (15 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Arizona (11 ev), Tennessee (11 ev) and Missouri (10 ev). If he lost ANY of those states, he would lose the election overall. Of the current swing states, he can only afford to lose Iowa (6 ev) or New Hampshire (4 ev)… but not both.

If this was the polling in late October, the chances of Romney pulling off a victory would be pretty slim. (Not zero, a Romney win would still be possible, the odds would just be very strongly against it since it would require a near sweep of the swing states, including many where he is behind.)

It is of course not late October though. Romney has plenty of time to campaign and plenty of time to move critical states toward him.

Edit 2012 May 4 14:05 – Adding in my boilerplate intro paragraph, which I had forgotten.

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Electoral College: Florida and Virginia move toward Obama

Electoral College: Georgia goes Deep Red, Arizona Swings Again

Electoral College: Texas goes Dark Red (plus Wisconsin Correction)

Electoral College: North Carolina Flips Back to Romney

Electoral College: Wisconsin Swings!

Electoral College: New Hampshire Goes Blue

Electoral College: Obama Weakens in Oregon

Electoral College: Florida flips to Romney

Electoral College: PA and AZ stop swinging, OH swings again

Electoral College: Nevada and Montana move in Obama’s Direction

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