The delegate counts for North Carolina and Indiana are now complete.

99 delegates for Obama, 88 for Clinton.

(Of those, 9 delegates were new today, 5 for Clinton, 4 for Obama.)

That’s 47.1% for Clinton. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 52.9% for Obama. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Clinton obviously was far far below the pace she needed to actually try to win this thing.

In addition today 16 more superdelegates declared preferences. 10 for Obama, 6 for Clinton. Once again Clinton loses the percentage game. As of yesterday she needed to be getting 68.3% of delegates to catch up and win. Of today’s superdelegates she got 37.5%. Even if you add the delegates she got today from IN/NC, she only manages 44%. Oops. But yet she stays in.

Anyway, updated summary:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1860, Clinton 1696, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 473 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 165 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 329 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 34.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 69.6% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

More and more superdelegates are declaring their preferences. There hasn’t been a massive overwhelming wave of them yet, but it seems the numbers are increasing. This will be over soon.

It seems everybody is determined, for whatever reason, that eventually the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated in one form or another. I really think they shouldn’t be seated at all, but whatever. When they finally agree how to seat those delegates, all the numbers above will of course change. But the bottom line is that any way they end up seating the delegations will be in a way that is structured such that it doesn’t change the results. It will just be a way to make those states feel included. But they will not matter.

First of all, one superdelegate from Virginia switches from Clinton to Obama today.

So, new stats:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1846, Clinton 1685, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 498 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 179 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 340 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 35.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 68.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

More exciting though is that CNN finally updated their Republican numbers with new updates from American Samoa, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, the Northern Marianas, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and the Virgin Islands.

Now, not all of the results from all of those places are actually complete yet. For instance, they still only have 2 delegates listed from Pennsylvania. But at least they are finally making some updates and getting caught up.

Net result of all these changes: McCain gains 78 delegates, Huckabee gets 8 delegates, and Paul gets 4.

The new delegate count is: McCain 1409, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 26

In percent terms that is: McCain 71.7%, Huckabee 14.0%, Romney 13.0%, Paul 1.3%

Of course, McCain long ago passed his magic number to clinch the nomination. So the chart above is just the raw number of delegates everyone has, rather than the Percent of Remaining needed to win that I have been using for the democrats lately. On the wiki page you get by clicking through on the chart though, I do have that graph as well.

And while the actual result won’t change of course (absent McCain suddenly deciding he doesn’t want the nomination after all, a major McCain scandal, or McCain death or disability) it is still interesting to see Huckabee and Paul continuing to get a smattering of delegates none the less.

She just gave essentially her regular stump speech in West Virginia. No surprise dropping out. No comments about anything changing based on yesterday’s results.

Oh well.

OK, time to go to work now.

The results so far from North Carolina and Indiana:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

Rolling that up with the numbers from before those states, current status…

The new delegate count is: Obama 1836, Clinton 1681, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.9%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5%

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 512 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 189 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 344 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 36.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)

Clinton needs 67.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)

And that is that. It can’t be emphasized enough just how over this is at this point. If she does indeed continue to fight this out, she will win a few of the next states. But this picture won’t change all that much. That percentage she needs is really really high. As it has been for awhile, Obama pretty much has to say “you know, never mind, you’re right, you should win, I’m dropping out” for her to start to get those sort of percentages.

And the makeup of the rules and credentials committees are such that it will be nearly impossible for her to get any substantive changes done that would affect the outcome. Changes, maybe. Changes that affect the outcome… no.

We are now firmly in Huckabee “I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles” territory.

[Edit 2008 May 8 13:57 UTC: Corrected Edwards’ percentage from 0.6% to 0.5%.]

No changes since an hour ago, but once again, for completeness…

So far from CNN for tonight:

170 delegates out of 187 (90.9%) determined.

91 delegates for Obama, 79 for Clinton.

That’s 46.5% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.)

That’s 53.5% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.)

And with no changes this hour, plus it being 8 hours in, I’m calling it a night. I’ll do the regular delegate update after a few hours of sleep. Bottom line, Clinton didn’t come even close to doing what she needed to do tonight in order to make her road to the nomination easier rather than harder.