103 out of 103 delegates from KY/OR are now in.

The final results… Clinton 58, Obama 45.

My prediction was… Clinton 58, Obama 45. Woo! Go me!

Today’s batch from KY/OR was an even split, 2 for Clinton, 2 for Obama. In addition today Obama picks up one more super delegate. So over all for today, Obama up 3, Clinton up 2.

New stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 1965, Clinton 1779, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.4%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 297 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 61 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 247 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 20.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 83.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

In the last couple of updates, I’ve also shown stats for what the situation would be if Clinton got her dream result and had Florida and Michigan fully seated based on the current results. I won’t do that every day since it is not the situation today, and is a very unlikely result. I just give it occasionally to show that even if that were to happen, Clinton would need to be getting significantly more than 60% of the remaining delegates to be on pace to catch up and win. This would be a DRAMATIC change from the 47.4% of the delegates she has been pacing at so far. And every day where she doesn’t get that margin in the delegates… which is almost every day… the percentage she needs continues to go up. She is not doing what she needs to be doing to win EVEN IF she gets what she wants in Michigan and Florida… which she won’t.

In any case, if and when there is a revision to the policy on Michigan and Florida that officially changes the number of delegates required for a win, then I will of course make adjustments here. This may well happen on the 31st. (And even after that what is decided may be appealed and have the possibility of changing again later.) But in the mean time, the number needed to win is 2026.

86 of 103 delegates from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries are now in. That’s 83.5%.

So far we have 51 Clinton, 35 Obama. That is 59.3% for Clinton so far. A little higher than the 56.3% I had predicted yesterday, but still way way less than the 74.4% Clinton would have needed to be on pace to catch up and win.

Since the last update we also have 10 more superdelegate announcements, 8 for Obama, 2 for Clinton.

This brings our new stats to:

Delegate count is: Obama 1953, Clinton 1770, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 318 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 73 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 256 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 23.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)

Clinton needs 80.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)

Now, at this point, Clinton is putting a lot of emphasis on seating Florida and Michigan, so lets do a quick look at that. Clinton’s best possible scenario would be to fully seat Florida and Michigan as is based on their existing votes, and seat them full force… with all of the Michigan “uncommitted” delegates staying uncommitted.

If so, using numbers from Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton would gain 193 more delegates, Obama would gain 79 more delegates, Edwards would gain 11 more delegates, and the new magic number would be 2209.

Adding those numbers to what we have today, that would bring us to 2032 Obama, 1963 Clinton, 20 Edwards, with 403 delegates without an expressed preference yet. Obama would need 177 delegates to win (43.9%). Clinton would need 246 delegates to win (61.0%).

Now, 61.0% is not 80.5%, but it is STILL a formidable number to get from these undeclared superdelegates and uncommitted pledged delegates. Especially given the situation we’d be in, it would be almost impossible.

And this is Clinton’s best possible case on Michigan and Florida. Since Obama’s folks will have a significant (if not controlling) influence on the committee deciding this, we can be pretty sure that this “best case for Clinton” situation will NOT happen.

But even if it did… Obama is still in a much stronger position and Clinton would have a very hard time getting the win. Again, absent a complete meltdown by Obama.

Oh yeah, and McCain picks up 42 more delegates too.

A few more superdelegates today. Five for Obama. One for Clinton.

The new delegate count is: Obama 1909, Clinton 1718, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.2%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 414 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 117 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 308 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 28.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 74.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

Will Clinton get the 74.4% of the delegates from KY/OR that she needs to be on pace to win? Ha! Yeah right. At this point it is really just a countdown until Obama gets the number he needs. This may change from 2026 to a higher number depending on what is decided about Florida and Michigan, but even the Clinton getting absolutely her best case result out of that wouldn’t be enough for her to catch up.

I’ll still be glued to the TV for the results tonight anyway of course.

I’m all for it. Add the joint town halls that have been discussed, and I’ll be quite happy.

Fever Dream Tickets
(Hendrik Hertzberg, The New Yorker)

One thing Obama and McCain have in common is that they each have a Vice-President problem. In both cases the choice is fraught with peril. Do you go for someone who strengthens your base or extends your appeal? Do you try for balance or amplification? How do you avoid saddling yourself with one ingrate and a dozen disgruntled spurnees?
The solution is obvious. Obama should ask McCain to be his running mate. McCain should ask Obama to be his. And both should say yes.
A campaign pitting an Obama-McCain ticket against a McCain-Obama ticket would absolutely guarantee a general-election campaign that would be about The Issues and nothing but The Issues.

(via Andrew Sullivan)

A return to the original formulation that the VP would be whoever came in second in electoral votes. I love it! The only thing better would be to go back to the electors actually being real people who made real decisions rather than just being appointed based on the results of some widespread general election and rubber stamping the results of the popular vote in each state.

Alas, none of that will ever happen. Quite sad.

I’m sure everybody has seen this by now, but I made a resolution recently that whenever I think about emailing something I see online to just one or two people, I should post it instead.

This is the clip of Chris Matthews and Kevin James from about a day ago. James was on Hardball to defend the President’s comments about appeasement and such he made in Israel. Matthews decided to try to get James to describe just what Neville Chamberlain had done wrong that Bush was trying to imply was similar to what certain others (unnamed, but everybody took it to mean Obama) are promoting now.

It gets good about two minutes in.

(via Balloon Juice)

As they say… Pwned!