There have been a bunch of these coming out in the last few days, but here is mine based on my Electoral College Prediction pages, which use the last five polls in each state based on pollster.com data. In this map the “Leaning” states for both candidates (with leads under 5%) are shown as “Undecided”. All states where a candidate is “weak” or “strong” in my classification (leads over 5%) are colored for their candidate.

Bottom line, the race at the moment is too close to call, with enough undecided states to easily make either candidate win depending on which way those leaning states end up going.

But we knew that already, didn’t we?

She’s bringing up the bogus popular vote argument (she only wins if you don’t count some caucus states). And she is going through all the reasons she (still) thinks she is the best candidate. Is she really going to keep pushing this forward? Really?

Well, now she’s talking more about issues than about herself.

I wonder just how much trouble she will make over the next few weeks.

Hopefully she will just go away. But I know that is wishful thinking.

Polls start closing in less than 8 minutes.

Obama only needs 4 delegates by CNN’s count.

It is so exciting!

Eight more superdelegates today. Six for Obama, Two for Clinton.

So the new statistics:

Delegate count is: Obama 2076, Clinton 1917, Edwards 13

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.9%, Edwards 0.3%

2118 delegates are needed to win.

There are 228 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 42 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 201 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 18.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 22.9% before PR.)

Clinton needs 88.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 82.3% before PR.)

After two days, Puerto Rico and a bunch of superdelegates have already completely erased the benefit (in terms of percent of remaining delegates needed) that Clinton got from the Rules and Bylaws Committee over the weekend.

Based on the recent (limited) polls, I expect Obama to get 17 more pledged delegates out of Montana and South Carolina. (Compared to 14 for Clinton, not that it matters.)

That means that Obama needs about 25 more superdelegates to endorse to clinch the nomination.

There are lots of rumors swirling today about various blocks of supers intending to endorse Obama right after polls close tonight. None of these have been officially confirmed of course. Obama really wants to be able to wrap this up tonight and declare victory. If they keep trickling in during the day and then there is a bunch of them right as the polls close, he may be able to do this.

Or, he could be in the awkward situation of still being a few delegates short, with everybody knowing that he will get there… but not tonight.

We shall see. But this may well be over in less than 24 hours.

Well, at least in terms of Obama having the number of delegates he needs.

Who knows if Hillary will actually admit defeat and drop out or not. Or if instead she does that “suspend her campaign while reserving the right to make trouble between now and the convention” option.

First polls close in about 11 hours. Woo!

So the rules nonsense is done (at least for now). They shouldn’t have, but they gave Florida and Michigan some delegates. And in Michigans’s case they completely threw out the election results and just allocated delegates the way they felt like. They shouldn’t have done that either. They decided to seat the full delegates, but give them half votes. For purposes of our counts, they all count as half delegates. All of this is bogus. They shouldn’t have done it. And if they did do the half delegate thing, they should have seated Michigan by the actual election results, they should not have used completely made up numbers. But they have indeed done it.

Because of all this, there is a new “magic number”. Depending on who you listen to, it is now either 2117 or 2118. There is an explanation of the difference at fivethirtyeight.com. For now I will use 2118 since that is what CNN is using, and I have been using them for my delegate counts all along.

So, after all of yesterday’s shenanigans, the magic number moves from 2026 to 2118. And Obama gets 63 more pledged delegate votes and 4 more superdelegate votes. Clinton gets 87 more pledged and 7 more super. Oh yeah, and Edwards gets 6 pledged delegates too. (Comparing CNN’s Counts to Democratic Convention Watch I think CNN is rounding off half delegates. I don’t like that, but it is a little late to switch data sources, so I’ll stick with CNN.)

The new statistics:

Delegate count is: Obama 2051, Clinton 1877, Edwards 13

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.6%, Edwards 0.3%

2118 delegates are needed to win.

There are 293 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 67 more delegates to win. (Up from 42 yesterday.)

Clinton needs 241 more delegates to win. (Down from 243 yesterday.)

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 22.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 15.2% before the RBC.)

Clinton needs 82.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 88.0% before the RBC.)

This one day of rules changes benefits Clinton more than any primary or caucus since, well, ever. This is the single hugest improvement in her position (in terms of percent of delegates she needs to get to win) that she has ever had. In the end though, it puts her percentage needed back to where it was ELEVEN DAYS AGO. So, she puts Obama back by less than two weeks. Her percentage needed is still over 80%. Which is pretty much impossible. It just slightly delays Obama clinching the nomination.

Of course, her camp is threatening to take this all the way to the convention, once again disputing Florida and Michigan, and changing the magic number once again. Of course, she’d still be behind, she’d still lose. But whatever.

Right now, assuming no further changes in Florida and Michigan, Obama needs 67 more delegates to win. Based on the limited poll data available, I expect Obama to get 23 delegates in Puerto Rico and 17 in Montana and South Dakota, for a total of 40 delegates. That would leave him needing 27 more delegates to clinch the nomination.

How long will it take to get them? I’m not sure, but I don’t think it will be very long.

Will Hillary concede? Or will she fight on to the convention regardless. Dunno. That is perhaps the harder question.