This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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I Called It!

(Of course, it was obvious, and lots of other people assumed it would be coming too.)

(via The Plank)

Of course, I thought they would make a better one than this one.

The Real Palin on SNL??

So says the rumor.

I guess I’ll have to remember to try to watch.

Summary Thoughts on First Debate

Writing this before I watch or read any commentary on the debate.

Brandy thinks Obama absolutely crushed. I think he did very well as well. I think he looked more Presidential, had a better command of his thoughts and positions. Also, McCain was clearly just attacking over and over to try to make a dent. Obama, aside from a few attacks which were probably unnecessary, stuck more to talking about what he would do and what he thought. McCain on the other hand spent most of his time on the attack. It seemed weak.

However… while Obama may have “won” on style and substance… I don’t think McCain “lost”. He did OK. He stood his ground. He babbled a little. But he didn’t have any major screw ups.

Neither did Obama.

My initial impression is that this will not change the mind of ANYONE who already had made up their mind in this race. Will it sway some undecideds? Maybe. Probably in Obama’s direction. He just looked more in control. And these things are rarely about what they actually say, but more often about general impressions left.

But I don’t think it will be a huge effect. Of course, in looking at polls, it will be impossible to separate the effect of this debate from the events of the last week. So we may never know.

But I think the momentum was in Obama’s direction before this, and this does not change that.

Now, time to start watching the spin.

And then maybe go to the grocery store with Brandy.

Live Blogging the First Debate

I’ve never tried live blogging anything, so I thought I would give it a try. I won’t make new posts, I’ll just keep updating this post whenever I have a thought that seems it making be worth posting. Perhaps this will end up just being a blank post if I have nothing to say. Dunno. I’ll try to remember to timestamp the comments as I make them. Timestamps will of course be UTC.

So, lets try a first one…

00:41 – 19 minutes until it starts. I’ll be watching on MSNBC tonight. Not for any real reason, just when I looked for the debate on the Tivo, it is the first one I found. Olberman was just talking to some guy, but now there is a commercial…. There ya go. Amazing content, don’t you think?

00:44 – My connection is being slow. This may get annoying. Also annoying, on the laptop I am on, the cursor occasionally jumps randomly around when I am trying to type.

00:47 – Brandy and I are going to be watching together on the big projector screen in our family room. Brandy isn’t here yet though. She’ll probably come down shortly. There should be popcorn.

00:49 – Speaking of Brandy… one quote from her that I’ve been meaning to post or mention on the podcast, but just never have… several weeks ago, reacting to some random thing Sarah Palin was saying on TV… “Go back to your igloo and have more babies, bitch.” So, OK, it is somewhat offensive on a variety of levels, but it made me laugh.

00:53 – Brandy is making popcorn now.

00:56 – Thinking of my original prediction for this election. It holds up well.

00:59 – Less than a minute to go.

01:01 – I like Jim Leher. Here we go.

01:02 – This format should be good. Would be better if they were sitting at a table though. In come the candidates.

01:04 – Obama is answering the first question, but I can’t think about anything other than the fact that Brandy is missing this and I should have told her to skip the popcorn. She doesn’t care that she is missing this, but I do, and I can’t concentrate on Obama while she is not where she is supposed to be. I have missed his whole answer.

01:06 – I paused it and went to get Brandy. Will rewind and be several minutes behind real time.

01:09 – Starting from the beginning again. Now 9 minutes behind real time.

01:10 – Being behind real time really bothers me too. But I don’t think there are any commercials, so I will not be able to catch up. I am distraught. But there is now popcorn. I would rather be live though, and not have had this 10 minute disaster.

01:11 – They are on stage again.

01:14 – Obama’s answer to the question about the bailouts – Bleh

01:15 – McCain bringing up Kennedy? What the hell. Kennedy wouldn’t like that. “I’m not feeling to great tonight”. Good start.

01:16 – Still can’t stop thinking about how we aren’t watching live and how much that bothers me.

01:17 – Whatever was wrong with McCain’s eye seems to be better today. Brandy: “He must be confused, did he just say we need to fix it by fixing it?”

01:18 – Not impressed by McCain’s first answer either. Now we get to see how the free wheeling 5 minutes works.

01:20 – Brandy is complaining about Obama’s grammar. Jim is trying to get them to really have a conversation. It isn’t working.

01:22 – McCain: “In the Wall Street”

01:23 – McCain is doing the bear joke again. Kill me.

01:26 – McCain is right about earmarks being bad. Obama is also right that it is a drop in the bucket compared to other things. I am getting calmer the more popcorn I eat. Oh, Obama interrupts McCain!

01:28 – Obama will go “line by line” through earmarks. Did a line item veto amendment pass while I wasn’t looking?

01:30 – McCain keeps trying to pin the earmark thing on Obama. I don’t think it will stick.

01:31 – Brandy on McCain: “That was just completely incoherent.” Obama now responding on taxes, talking about loopholes. This is all just blah blah blah.

01:32 – Pivot to healthcare. Time for a new question. But where is the damn foreign policy? This is supposed to be the foreign policy debate.

01:33 – Brandy “He just forgot what he was saying… did he forget to take his Alzheimer’s medicine?” on McCain.

01:34 – They are arguing now. Good.

01:35 – What are you going to have to give up to fund the bailout. Decent question. Still not foreign policy though. Obama is going through which things he wants to do. But so far hasn’t said which he would give up. Completely avoiding the question. Said “it would be hard to say” and now is just rattling off things that cost money. It was a good question. Obama is not answering it. Very annoying.

01:37 – McCain is not answering the question… wait, he just said he would eliminate ethanol subsidies. And Cost plus contracts. He is not quite fully answering the question, but he is a lot closer than Obama was.

01:39 – Jim trying to call them on not answering the question. Obama has now said “John is right” several times already. If he says it much more, it will be in a commercial.

01:41 – McCain just proposed a spending freeze. Obama saying you need to be more careful than that. I think Obama wins the point. Was this a new proposal from McCain?

01:43 – Jim still trying to ask the same question. McCain likes nukes.

01:45 – McCain doesn’t want to hand the health care industry over to the federal government. But apparently it is fine to hand the financial industry over.

01:46 – Obama said Orgy. Heh heh. Cue Bevis.

01:47 – Lessons of Iraq. Finally an actual foreign policy question. Brandy’s response to McCain’s first few sentences… “What?”

01:49 – McCain’s answer was OK. Obama’s is OK so far. Overall though this is boring.

01:51 – McCain: The next prez doesn’t have to decide on if to go into Iraq. They have to decide what to do now. Very right.

01:52 – My bowl of popcorn is now empty.

01:53 – McCain is smirking madly. Obama “You like to pretend the war started in 2007”.

01:54 – Obama doing a chorus of “you are wrong”. Brandy: “You know this is not going to get any better. Obama is crushing him. McCain has no idea what he is saying. He is all confused.”

01:55 – Brandy “Winning WHAT? What the hell are we winning?”

01:56 – Obama responding on troop funding. Explains the differences. Is trying to school McCain on the difference between tactics and strategy.

01:57 – They are talking over each other. Obama “that is not true”.

01:58 – Brandy “You can tell he (McCain) is starting to get anxious, because that is when he starts to lisp more.”

01:59 – Hey Mr Taliban, Tally me banana.

02:01 – Obama giving a long outline of what he thinks we need to do in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Calm. Collected. Sounds like he has thought about it.

02:02 – McCain chiding Obama for “saying out loud” things about Pakistan.

02:04 – Paused for a few seconds because Brandy couldn’t find Roscoe. Now 10 minutes behind real time. I hope nothing REALLY dramatic happens. I would hate to not be watching live if fisticuffs broke out or some such.

02:05 – Roscoe was upstairs. Now he is here.

02:06 – Obama explains his “Osama Hot Pursuit” comments, calls on McCain to say if he disagrees. Goes for a low blow on the “Bomb Bomb Iran” song.

02:07 – Obama is sounding like a thoughtful grownup here. I haven’t decided what McCain sounds like here.

02:08 – OK, I’ll be fair, McCain is sounding thoughtful here too at the moment.

02:09 – The bracelet story again from McCain. Can we please stop with the standard stump speech crap?

02:10 – Rebecca in comments says McCain just pulled down his pants. She is not fooling me into fast forwarding to real time.

02:11 – Roscoe got excited when Brandy played with him. He is barking now. Have to pause until Brandy takes him back upstairs.

02:12 – She fed him instead. We’ll see if this works. Obama has a bracelet too.

02:14 – Jim looks exasperated.

02:15 – Roscoe tried to knock over the table, so we are paused again. All good now. Brandy: “I still think McCain looks like someone who likes little boys. MAYBE little girls. I really think McCain is really incoherent here. Is he always like this”. Me: “Yes” Brandy “Then how the hell did he get this far?” Now she is babbling at the dog and I will unpause again.

02:17 – McCain: “Senator Obama doesn’t seem to understand.”

02:18 – Iran is an existential threat to Israel. McCain talking about the League of Democracies. Said “straight talk”. I think this is the first time this debate. Will work with others. Serious threat. Etc. Have no doubt about the ultimate result.

02:21 – Obama bringing up how the war in Iraq strengthened Iran and how current policy hasn’t worked. But he just said “McCain is right” again about not tolerating a nuclear Iran. I tell you, a clip of Obama saying “McCain is right” over and over with a counter is being edited by someone as I type.

02:23 – McCain having trouble speaking.

02:24 – Talking about meeting the President of Iran. Obama is responding now. Saying he reserves the right to speak to whoever he wants if he thinks it will help.

02:26 – McCain looks tired.

02:27 – Obama giving strong defense of diplomacy and engagement. Using some of what W has done as examples. And Kissinger. Ooo… points out the Spain goof up by McCain. Low. You know he was just confused there. McCain responds by talking about the Presidental seal.

02:28 – “What Senator Obama doesn’t understand”. A theme there.

02:29 – McCain is intentionally misrepresenting what Obama has said… and just said two minutes ago. Of course he has to. Because what Obama is saying is perfectly reasonable. The only way to make it “scary” is to misrepresent it.

02:30 – McCain got off a zinger there “Oh please”

02:31 – McCain’s eyes bug out when he gets all excited like he just did when they were arguing there. Oh, just noticed the time. The real debate should be over now. We’re in the Tivo delay only now. People watching live are done unless they ran long.

02:32 – Talking about NATO now.

02:33 – Obama talks about what he would do. McCain talks about what Obama said. Oh no, the KGB joke…

02:34 – Reb says it is still going. Wonder if this is as true as the pants thing.

02:35 – Was this thing supposed to be 90 minutes or two hours? I thought 90 minutes.

02:36 – McCain: “Watch Ukraine”. Trying to show his expertise in the area. Not bad. Obama “Senator McCain and I agree”. There we go for the ad again.

02:37 – Arggh, spoilers from Reb!

02:39 – Exasperated sigh and shrug thing from McCain while Obama talks about energy.

02:40 – “I’m sorry John, that’s just not true.”

02:41 – Brandy: “Obama has pretty lips”. Me: “And McCain doesn’t?”. Brandy: “He only has one lip, Obama has two.”

02:42 – Talking about chances of a new 9/11. McCain talks about several things he did. Mentions Lieberman. Says “we should never torture ever again” which kind of admits that we have. Reb says it is over now in real time.

02:43 – Obama talking about nuke proliferation. Now Al Queda. “Last point” – the way we are perceived matters. Restore standing in the world. Duh.

02:45 – Gives McCain credit on torture. I would have too a few years ago, but he caved on that.

02:46 – “Senator Obama doesn’t Understand”. Again. This was McCain’s tagline of the night.

02:47 – Obama smirked for a second. But looks serious again now.

02:49 – McCain “There are some advantages to knowledge and experience”. Obama hasn’t got that. As Rebecca said in her spoiler comments, McCain said Obama is too inflexible to be president. So he’s complaining that Obama does not flip flop? OK. Although I’m not sure the record backs that up.

02:51 – Obama: father from Kenya, only country in the world, blah blah, heard it before. OK, good, he moved on from that. McCain “When I got back from prison”. Blah!

02:52 – “And that ends this debate.” Woo!

02:53 – I’ll post some wrap up thoughts in a new post in a few minutes. But this exciting live blog is now done. Brandy says she wants to go to the grocery store after I watch some commentary, but didn’t realize there will be hours of it. Anyway, this live blog is over.

I Take It Back

After her speech at the convention, I said some things about how Democrats underestimated Sarah Palin at their peril, and that while inexperienced, she was very good and could be quite a challenge.

After watching her handful of interviews, most recently the Katie Couric one, let me revise those thoughts.

She is as dumb as a rock.

Carry on.

McCain on Letterman (not)

You have got to be kidding me…

Just got this text message…

CNN Breaking News – John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.

What a crock… is he really that scared of the debate? Really? What “work” do either of them have to do here other than perhaps vote on a proposal in the Senate when it comes up? It isn’t like either of them are President YET.

Come on…

Paul Retrospective

Damn it, he really should have run as an independent after he lost the Republican nomination. While I think Obama would make a better actual president, I agree with Ron Paul on a much higher percentage of issues. (Of course, on one or two things, he does jump off the deep end…) But it would be great to have his third voice in the middle of an Obama/McCain debate.

And yes, even with some of the obvious flaws he showed during the primaries, I’d have to very seriously think about voting for him rather than Obama. (Although, in the end, I might come back to Obama, because really, it is about more than just issues and positions.)

(via The Daily Dish)

First Dude

‘First Dude’ Todd Palin Illustrates Alaska’s Blend of Private and Public
(Alec MacGillis and Karl Vick, Washington Post, 22 Sep 2008)

Todd Palin grew up as the archetypal Alaskan — salmon fisherman, champion snowmobiler, North Slope oil worker. But since his wife became governor 20 months ago, his portfolio has broadened: househusband, babysitter, senior adviser, legislative liaison, and — when the occasion warrants — enforcer and protector.

He has supervised renovations to the governor’s mansion and hopscotched by plane back and forth to Juneau to juggle duties as father and “First Dude,” as he has come to be known. And to a degree that has surprised many state government observers, Todd Palin also has become involved in policy, sitting in on his wife’s meetings, traveling on state business and weighing in on some legislative issues.

(via Huffington Post)

The Conservative Obama

A week or so old, but still a good read:

A Conservative for Obama
(Wick Allison, D Magazine, 17 Sep 2008)

Barack Obama is not my ideal candidate for president. (In fact, I made the maximum donation to John McCain during the primaries, when there was still hope he might come to his senses.) But I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.

Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened.

“Every great cause,” Eric Hoffer wrote, “begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” As a cause, conservatism may be dead. But as a stance, as a way of making judgments in a complex and difficult world, I believe it is very much alive in the instincts and predispositions of a liberal named Barack Obama.

(via Daily Kos)