This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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November 2024
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Handy Poll Closing Map

(via DCW)

The first polls (other than Dixville Notch, which we should have results from in about an hour) close at 23:00 UTC. That is a little under 19 hours from now.

Those are partial states though. The first moment entire states will be closed is 00:00 UTC. At that point Georgia (15 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Indiana (11 ev), Kentucky (8 ev), South Carolina (8 ev) and Vermont (3 ev) will be closed and the networks will start calling the ones that are not close, and will start showing preliminary results for the ones that are.

At that hour, watch Georgia, Virginia and Indiana carefully. Between looking at how the three of them are going, we’ll probably have a good sense for how the rest of the night will go.

McCain Chance of Winning: 1.9%

That’s McCain’s win percentage in fivethirtyeight.com’s latest update. Those are the longest odds he has ever had in their tracking. That’s about a 1 in 50 chance of victory. That still isn’t impossible… but…

An Amazing Chart

Palin Cleared

As per CNN breaking news, looks like the latest of the multiple investigations of “Troopergate” has cleared Palin. Awesome timing.

Election Day Update Page

It is now election day (UTC at least) so as of a few minutes ago I opened my 2008 Electoral College Results page. There are no updates there yet. There will be no actual called states for almost another day of course, but if any additional last minute polls move any state from one category to another, I’ll get the updates up as soon as I find out.

Obama’s Grandmother is Dead

According to MSNBC breaking news. It would have been nice for her to be able to make it another 48 hours. (Assuming Obama wins.)

McCain Win Scenarios

Fivethirtyeight.com maps them out. As of today, they put the odds of one of these happening at 6.3%. Or about 1 in 16.

Thirty Five Questions on the Ballot

OK, in UTC terms it is now the day before election day. I have taken both today and tomorrow off of work. So it is now time to start working through the ballot. There are 35 items. The Presidential race is #12. As I do this, I will, as usual, post my thoughts and votes. I hope to space this out a bit and finish sometime Monday, so I’m not rushing through anything on Tuesday. Of course, if history is any guide, I’ll be rushing to finish and get it turned in on time.

On My Way to Victory!

Someone apparently found this post I made when filling out my primary ballot earlier this year. This person emailed me yesterday to know that they are writing me in for Washington Supreme Court Position #7. I’ll probably end up voting for myself again in the general election as well, since the person on the ballot still has no competition. So I’ll have a whole TWO VOTES! My nefarious plan to take over the whole world takes another step forward! :-)

Which reminds me, time is short. I need to start work on my general election ballot shortly.

OK, McCain was Really Funny

He was relaxed. He seemed comfortable. He was self-depreciating. He was funny. He seemed like a nice guy. He looked and sounded like the “old McCain” from eight years ago.

If this was the McCain we’d been seeing since June, this would be a closer race than it is today.

And this may very well still give him a few points of lift before we get to Tuesday.