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From Drudge:
Of course, early exit polls are notoriously unreliable. Final exit polls usually are pretty good, however, you’ll see real results at that point. I won’t be quite real time when states are called by CNN. For that, watch CNN. I’ll be posting updates to my graphs approximately every fifteen minutes or so, capturing any states that were called in the previous fifteen minutes. So, if CNN calls a bunch of states at 00:00:05 UTC… I’ll probably have the graphs up reflecting those shortly after 00:15 UTC. For all intents and purposes, Abulsme.com called the election for Obama on October 3rd when our “Best Case” for McCain was no longer to win. In the time since then, McCain has never changed that basic situation. Because of that, today I’m also tracking McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario, where he not only wins all the swing states, but also all of Obama’s “Weak” states, leaving Obama with only the states that he is ahead by more than 10% in. In that (very unlikely) scenario, McCain would still win… 291 to 247. For purposes of tonight, I’ll “call the election” when the SuperBest scenarios for the two candidates agree with each other. Basically, that will be when we hit the point where in order to win, the losing candidate would have to start winning states the other candidate is ahead by more than 10% in. We’ll see how long that takes. Other than Dixville Notch and Hart’s Landing of course. Parts of Indiana and Kentucky have now closed. The whole states will not be closed for another hour, so no networks will be calling them yet. But we may start to get some hints of what is happening. An hour from now we’ll have Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia fully closed. They won’t be talking about who wins yet, but about what issues are important and that sort of thing. But this is the beginning of tonight’s data deluge. By now, McCain is probably putting the finishing touches on his concession speech. According to fivethirtyeight.com as of this morning. (via Slog) Barack Obama – 17 votes (via Balloon Juice) Go Ron Paul! :-) Obama 15 votes, McCain 6 votes. Dixville Notch has not voted Democratic in a presidential race since 1968. A sign of things to come? |
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