This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
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There are four states that change categories today. One brings good news for McCain. But bucking recent trends, three are good news for Obama. In order of electoral college votes…
Michigan, with 17 electoral votes, which two weeks ago weakened for a “Weak” Obama state into a “Leaning” Obama swing state, now moves back into “Weak” status as Obama’s lead once again breaks the 5% mark in the state. This makes Michigan no longer a swing state, which is potentially a very big deal for the Obama camp, as they don’t have to play as much defense there.
Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, which 9 days ago moved from leaning Obama to leaning McCain, now moves back to leaning Obama. (Either way, it is a very close state and could very easily go either way… the movement here is from McCain being ahead by 0.2% to Obama being ahead by 0.4%.)
Mississippi, with 6 electoral votes, sees McCain’s lead move from the “Weak McCain” category to “Strong McCain” as McCain’s lead grows to 10%. (This is the one state that is good news for McCain, but it will make no difference to the summary numbers, because it does not affect the swing states in any way.)
Nevada, with 5 electoral votes, moves from leaning McCain, to leaning Obama. Once again it is important to note that which side of the line the state is on right now may not be really be very relevant. We are moving from McCain ahead by 0.6% to Obama ahead by 0.2%. Either way, this state is very close and could go either way.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 291, McCain 247
The changes today can’t of course be attributed to a convention bounce, but perhaps Obama merely coming back from vacation and starting to campaign again was enough to start blunting the recent McCain momentum. Or… or it could just be random variation in polls pushing states that are right on the line between my categories back and forth over those lines.
Today’s polling has a big status change. My average of the last five polls in Ohio goes from Obama ahead by 1% to McCain ahead by 1%. Either way it is in the swing state category of “could easily go either way” but, for the moment, McCain has the edge and this flips Ohio into his category in the “everybody gets their lean states” totals.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
It takes 270 to win the electoral college. 269 to tie and send it to the House of Representatives. The total above is about as close as you can get without it actually being a tie. (If right now McCain managed to flip New Hampshire and there were no other changes, it WOULD be an electoral tie…)
Now, we shouldn’t read too much to Ohio being on one side or the other of the line. The reality is that is in the swing state category. It could go either way. And it has been in that state for a long time. The difference between where it was before this new polling and where it is now is slight.
However, I wouldn’t want to minimize this. This is yet more McCain momentum. He’s been on a roll for a month now. In mid-July Obama had McCain on the ropes. We were almost at the point where Obama could win without ANY swing states. McCain was in a position where he would have to essentially completely sweep all the swing states to win.
No longer. Obama still has a better best case scenario than McCain’s best case scenario. But the situation is MUCH more even. Yes, Obama needs far fewer of the swing states to come to his side. But McCain is ahead in almost enough of those states.
There are 141 electoral votes currently in swing states. Assuming Obama gets DC, in order to win Obama needs 27 of those electoral votes. Right now he is ahead in 3 swing states netting 30 electoral votes. By contrast McCain needs to bring 116 electoral votes from the swing states to win. Right now he is ahead in 10 of the swing states giving 111 electoral votes.
As mentioned before, from where we are now, if McCain flips New Hampshire, then we go to the House and Obama probably wins. (Although there may be interesting dynamics there that would not guarantee it.) But McCain just needs to flip Michigan or Colorado to take the lead outright.
Meanwhile, Obama needs to start fighting hard in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to flip them. If he can bring those back to his side, he could start looking comfortable again.
He also needs to start playing some defense to try to move Michigan, Colorado and New Hampshire out of swing state status and into the slightly safer weak category.
He can not keep letting Solid states move to Weak states and Weak states move to Lean states, and Lean states to McCain Lean states… which is what he has been doing for the last month.
That does sound a little passive though. This isn’t just happening to Obama in isolation, McCain is doing it to him. McCain was a little late getting spun up and started in this campaign, but for the last month he has been firing on all cylinders, while Obama has been sputtering.
And now we spin into Veeps and Conventions. And then full speed to November.
Get ready for a fun ride.
And an election that could still very easily go either way.
The good news for McCain continues. Today it is in the form of Obama’s lead in Minnesota dropping below 10%, moving the state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. There is still quite a way for it to go before it becomes a swing state though. So the overall summary stays the same:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 293, McCain 245
Given how close together the two conventions are, and how state polling takes awhile to show any effects, I’m not sure if any “bounce” from the Democratic convention will even be visible. We’ll see I guess. In reality, I think we’ll have to wait until mid-September to try to get a picture of what things really look like after both candidates have picked their Veeps and had their conventions.
But right about now I could see Obama really wanting a big convention bounce. His really strong position in mid-July has just been steadily eroding ever since then. He’s still ahead at the moment, but McCain definitely has the momentum at the moment.
Note to future candidates: Wait until mid-November for the vacation. Take a day here or there to recharge perhaps. But a full week? Bad idea.
For the first time since July 1st a state actually flips from one side to the other. All other recent changes have just been in the level of strength one candidate or another had in a state.
The change on July 1st was Virginia flipping from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. Virginia now flips back to Leaning McCain. Either way, Virginia is a swing state. It is essentially too close to call. At the moment my five poll average actually has McCain ahead by 0.2%. That is close. That is a tossup.
But it does move into McCain’s column at this point for the “if everybody gets their leans” count. And this continues a string of good news for McCain. McCain has indeed “shown up” and is in the process of making this a real contest again. Ohio is also very close right now, with Obama with a very slim lead. If McCain manages to flip Ohio as well then we will once again essentially have a tie game.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 293, McCain 245
Recent trends have all been in McCain’s direction. Perhaps it is time for Obama to come back from vacation and start participating again.
Mixed results today. Good news for each candidate in different places.
The good news for Obama: McCain’s lead in Alaska drops to less than 5% in my last five poll average. This moves Alaska from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain”. And it means Alaska is a swing state and really is up for grabs. Now, Alaska has apparently voted Republican in all but one election since it became a state. So tipping Alaska over might be a big deal. Except for the fact that it is only three electoral votes. But it looks like Obama might actually be competitive here, and this improves Obama’s best case slightly.
The good news for McCain: Obama’s lead in New Jersey slips to less than 10% in my last five poll average. New Jersey moves from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. The state is still a long way from being a swing state, but this weakening continues a trend over the last few of weeks, where Obama’s positions in Michigan, Wisconsin, South Carolina and New Hampshire have all deteriorated somewhat. But while Obama’s lead is diminished in New Jersey, it is still substantial enough to keep it blue on the overall map.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
This is definitely now a trend in McCain’s direction. Obama’s lead in Michigan (in my last five poll average) now falls below 5%. This makes Michigan into a “Lean Obama” state rather than a “Weak Obama” state. This makes it a swing state, and one that could really easily go either way. Michigan has 17 electoral votes. More than any swing states other than Florida and Ohio. So this is very important. Michigan is a big deal.
Without Michigan, McCain had a whole raft of states that he HAD to win in order to get to the 270 mark. With Michigan in play, we now have only Florida as a MUST WIN for McCain. The others McCain can potentially lose and still win… if he can pull of Michigan.
Obama is still in a strong position, but without Michigan categorized as a “safe” state, it is looking a bit less strong than it was.
In the summary, McCain’s best case improves.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
We’ve been talking on Curmudgeon’s Corner for quite awhile now about how McCain needed to start actually showing up to play the game. Although he is still behind, I think McCain has now showed up and is starting to play. Mainly through negative ads that looked desperate to start with… but look like they might actually be having an effect in McCain’s favor in some critical states.
Of course we have both conventions coming up pretty soon. And there is more news of all sorts every day. This can still be very volatile. It will be interesting to see if McCain can build these handful of reversals into any real momentum, and if that momentum will be able to persist through the conventions.
It has been a full two weeks since there has been any state changing categories in my electoral college calculations. There have been plenty of polls, just not much movement. At least not movement that changed categories. Today brings movement though, and once again it is good news for McCain. This time Obama’s lead in Wisconsin drops to below 10%, moving that state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”.
Looking at the trend lines, it seems that the “bounce” Obama got after securing the nomination has indeed peaked. While some news has been mixed, for the most part since mid-July McCain has very gradually taken back some ground.
For the most part though, the race seems to be in the summer doldrums. Not much is changing. Things are just sort of slowly moving forward, with most polls just continuing to confirm that things are still at about the same place.
As we approach the conventions and the end of the summer, I expect we’ll start to see some more motion again. But for now, it seems things are relatively static, although moving a tad, just a bit, slowly, in McCain’s direction.
Since today’s change just moved a strong state to a weak, and didn’t change the inventory of leaning swing states at all, the summary remains the same:
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
Looks like things continue to move in McCain’s direction. Today’s batch of polls includes a new one in South Carolina which when you plug it into my five poll average increases McCain’s lead to over 5%, taking the state from “Leaning McCain” to “Weak McCain”, thus taking it out of my swing state category.
Still too early to see if Obama hit his high water mark, but at least for the last couple of days, things have been heading in that direction.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
Obama’s lead in New Hampshire based on the last 5 polls in the state slips to less than 5%, bringing the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”… and making New Hampshire once again a swing state. A five point lead is nothing. If the right things hit in a news cycle, a five point lead can evaporate in days, faster than polls can track it. So New Hampshire is very much in play for McCain once again.
Now, New Hampshire is small. Only four electoral votes. But this is important because this is the first time since May 2nd… almost 3 months ago… that a “Weak Obama” state has slipped back into the leaning swing state category. (Interestingly enough, it was New Hampshire back then too.)
So for the first time in quite a long time, McCain starts to improve his “best case” scenario where he gets every one of the swing states. Is this an indicator that Obama’s long bounce is finally over, and things will start tightening again as we head into the last three months of the campaign? Or is this just a soon to be reversed blip? We’ll see over the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Obama gains ground as McCain’s lead falls under 10%, moving the state from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Still a long way from being a swing state though.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 389, McCain 149
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
Assuming each candidate wins each of their Strong and Weak states (and Obama gets DC)… Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado are still MUST WIN states for McCain. He needs to get all seven to win. If Obama wins in any one of those swing states, he wins the Presidency.
PS: Will someone please do a poll in DC, so I can stop having to give the DC disclaimer. :-)
After a few weeks below the line, Obama’s lead in New Jersey is once again over 10% and New Jersey goes from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 277, Obama 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 389, McCain 149
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
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