This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
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There were seemingly hundreds of polls since yesterday’s update. Just tons. Slogging through them all, we find there are polls in 35 states… and… finally… at long last… a poll in the District of Columbia. So we now have complete polling coverage across all electoral votes, and I will no longer have to say things like “and assuming Obama wins DC”. Which is a good thing.
In any case, there are a full six states (and DC) changing status today. Four of those are good news for McCain, three are good news for Obama. So it is kind of a mixed day, but I’m going to have to still give the day to McCain, as one of the changes is a swing state (Colorado) flipping in his direction, and moving us out of a tied electoral vote situation and into an actual McCain lead in the “give everybody every state they are even slightly ahead in” metric.
I’ll break up the states to report on today into which direction they are moving.
States moving in McCain’s direction:
Texas (34 ev): Texas, which a long time ago early in the race had a few tantalizing polls indicating that maybe Obama had a chance, now moves to a greater than 10% McCain lead, making the state “Solid McCain”.
Arizona (10 ev): Despite being McCain’s home state, McCain’s lead had always been less than 10%. No more. McCain solidifies his lead and moves his lead to more than 10% and puts Arizona into the “Solid McCain” category, where it possibly should have been all along.
Wisconsin (10 ev): Obama’s lead in Wisconsin drops to less than 5%. This moves the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”. This makes Wisconsin now a swing state, and potentially in play for McCain. Despite the lower electoral college total, this is probably actually the most significant move toward McCain in today’s update. It gives another place where McCain can push into Obama territory and put Obama even more on the defensive.
Colorado (9 ev): As usual I will caution that although this is the state that made me give the day to McCain, we have a swing state moving from “Lean Obama” to “Lean McCain”. In today’s update we went from Obama being ahead by 0.6% to McCain being ahead by 0.4%. Either way the state is really too close to call, and we should treat it that way. So this change in status, may not really be a change at all. We’re just bouncing around within error of the zero line. But never the less, it puts the over all electoral college total in McCain’s favor for the first time since May.
States moving in Obama’s direction:
Florida (27 ev): McCain’s lead in Florida, which a few days ago had moved over 5% pulling the state out of swing state category. But today, the five poll average once again slips below 5%, thus moving Florida from “Weak McCain” back to “Lean McCain”. So Florida is once again a swing state, and is once again in play for Obama. Obama has never been ahead in Florida. But for most of the year it has been close. It is once again close.
West Virginia (5 ev): Perhaps a surprising one, although I have read a few commentators mention that this state could actually be vulnerable. And McCain’s strength there is weakening. The state has been very lightly polled, with only four polls so far this year. But this latest poll moves the average to a less than 10% lead for McCain, so the state moves from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. If Obama was still in a strong position overall, he might want to start throwing resources into West Virginia to try to turn it into a swing state. But the trends have been against him lately and he is actually behind overall at the moment, he’d probably be better off concentrating on the actual swing states right now.
District of Columbia (3 ev): This one is of course no surprise to anybody, which is one of the reasons that it has taken so long for anybody do to a poll here. Nobody expected anything different than what we got. The first poll shows 82% Obama, 13% McCain… a 69% lead for Obama. Yeah, this is “Strong Obama” country.
McCain Best Case – McCain 326, Obama 212
Obama Best Case – Obama 355, McCain 183
If everybody gets their leans – McCain 278, Obama 260
Has the McCain “bump” peaked yet? Well, Obama actually has some states with good news, which has been very unusual lately. And Florida being competitive again is definitely very good news for Obama. But I’m not ready to say yet that things are actually moving in Obama’s direction.
If we start having a few days with more things moving in Obama’s direction again than moving toward McCain then perhaps we’ll be able to say that. But for today, I’d still have to say McCain wins the day. But barely.
Only one change for today, and for once, it is good news for Obama. But I’m not sure we can declare the McCain bump to be over quite yet.
For only the second time this year, and the first time since the VP selection, there was a poll of Delaware. As a result of this poll, the average for Delaware (normally I use a five poll average, but since there have only been two, I can only use two…) moves to Obama being ahead by more than 10%. Woo! Now those three electoral votes are in the bag for Obama! :-)
OK, I kid. Even before this, the one poll in Delaware had Obama up 9%. So nobody was ever worried about Delaware, or particularly interested as it was considered a lock for Obama. I had it categorized as “Weak Obama” since it was under 10%, but it was barely under. In any case, Delaware is now officially “Solid Obama”. It does not change the summary:
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE
If you look at the chart, you can see over the last week or so some small movement in the Obama strong and weak lines over the past few days. This is New Mexico coming back out of swing state territory where it was a few days ago, and today’s strengthening in Delaware. It would be tempting to look at this and think that maybe this was the start for a reversal of the McCain gains of the last couple of weeks.
That would however be premature. The Delaware change, even though the poll just hit my charts today, probably represents a change that happened several weeks ago after the VP selection, or maybe even no significant change at all given the state was right on the line anyway and there are only two polls. In New Mexico the state “dipped below the line” to be a swing state, but only for a couple of days. It is right on the edge of “Lean Obama” and “Weak Obama” and that could be random fluctuations too.
Bounces typically last a couple of weeks. It takes a little bit longer for state polls to catch up. Watch carefully what happens over the next week or so. If there is a real retreat from the McCain bounce, we should start to be able to see bigger changes. But it is not there yet. For the moment, the pattern is still major McCain gains since the conventions.
A lot of polls today (as there are most days now) but only one small change in status. Once again it is a move in McCain’s direction.
South Dakota (3 ev): McCain’s lead in South Dakota grows to over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. South Dakota has been very sparsely polled. Today’s poll is actually only the fifth of this election cycle. So my “last five poll average” actually includes every poll taken in the state this year. But with the data available, it does look like this state is very safe McCain territory at this point.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE
There has been some talk starting to percolate that perhaps McCain’s bounce has peaked at this point, and we’ll start seeing an Obama recovery. There are perhaps some hints at that in the national polling. But with the exception of New Mexico returning to “Weak Obama” status after a brief flirtation with being a swing state, Obama has had no other moves in his direction in my state level classifications since August 25th. A full three weeks ago at this point. If there is an end to the McCain bounce and a move back toward Obama again, it has not yet started to show itself in the state level polls.
Of course, generally with the lower frequency of state polls, it does take longer for changes to show up at that level. At least that is how it HAS been. But as polling levels have increased, that is getting less true, especially for swing states. As an example, for the last 6 days there has always been at least one poll of Ohio each day, sometimes two. With polling continuing at this level (and presumably actually accelerating as we approach the election) we should actually be able to start picking up changes in the state by state situation almost as quickly as the national polls show changes. And of course the state by state view is more meaningful than the popular vote views.
Bounces supposedly usually last around two weeks. We’re now in the second week. If the post-convention changes are going to start fading, we should start seeing it soon.
But we haven’t yet.
There are bigger states that change today, and they are probably ACTUALLY more important to the state of this race than a swing state moving from one side of the line to the other… either way it is still a swing state and REALLY too close to call… but, I have to put this one on top. New Hampshire flips today from “Lean Obama” to “Lean McCain”. Which means that if each candidate gets all of the states where they are even slightly ahead, the result would be 269 electoral votes for McCain, and 269 electoral votes for Obama. Which would throw the election into the House of Representatives.
At the moment fivethirtyeight.com puts the odds of this actually being the result of the election at 1.09%. That is not a very big chance, but still. Thinking about that possibility gets any political junkies very very excited. And for the first time this election season, the model on this site actually shows it as the “current” situation. So, I admit, I squealed with excitement when I saw it.
Anyway, calming down a bit, there are two states with more electoral votes that actually move from being swing states to NOT being swing states today, which is arguably more significant to gauging the actual current state of the race.
For once, there is actually mixed news here, with some good for both McCain and Obama. McCain’s good news comes in a bigger state, but given there has been no good news for Obama since before the conventions, the news there is significant too.
Florida (27 ev): McCain’s lead in Florida has now gone over 5%, moving the state out of the swing state category and to “Weak McCain”. Obama has never actually showed a lead in Florida, but at times he had been keeping it very close. No more.
New Mexico (5 ev): Just a few days ago new polls had shown McCain eating into Obama’s lead in New Mexico and had pushed that lead to less than 5%. Today new polling moves the five poll average back above a 5% Obama lead, moving New Mexico back out of swing state territory into “Weak Obama” territory.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE
Again, I must just say “wow” at how close this looks at this moment.
Another thing to note is that our inventory of swing states is shrinking. We now have only 10 swing states, accounting for 106 electoral votes. Given that neither candidate (at the moment) is even close to being able to win without swing states, those swing states, all essentially too close to call at the moment, WILL make the difference in this election.
Right now, the swing states are: Pennsylvania (21 ev), Ohio (20 ev), Michigan (17 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Indiana (11 ev), Colorado (9 ev), Nevada (5 ev), New Hampshire (4 ev), Montana (3 ev), North Dakota (3 ev).
If you live in one of those states. Pay close attention to this race. Your vote will matter.
Only one state of bad news for Obama today, which compared to recent days is actually a good day.
Missouri (11 ev): Another state that has been red the last couple of elections that Obama had hoped to flip. At times it has looked like that might be possible. But as with the other states recently, it appears that McCain is consolidating his position. Today McCain’s lead moves to over 5%, which changes this state from “Lean McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Which means Missouri can no longer be considered a possible swing state.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 324, Obama 214
Obama Best Case – Obama 355, McCain 183
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
The two best cases are more balanced than they have been since early June. At this moment in time, the race really is looking very even.
Bring on the debates! :-)
The pollsters are ramping up their activities. Since my update yesterday, there were new polls in 14 states. In several of those states there were multiple polls. I may have to reevaluate what time of day I usually do these updates to be sure I actually have time to do them each day. In any case…
Of those 14 states, only 2 states actually changed categories, and both showed movement toward McCain.
North Carolina (15 ev): North Carolina had been one of those states where Obama had been hoping to break into traditional “red” territory. Obama had never taken the lead in North Carolina, but at one point he had narrowed McCain’s lead to less than 1%. No more. Recent polls have shown large McCain leads. With three new polls today, and two earlier in the week, the five poll average now shows McCain leading by more than 5% (in fact, almost 10%). This takes North Carolina out of “Lean McCain” and into “Weak McCain” with momentum toward going even further. This takes North Carolina out of play for Obama and yet again diminishes his hopes for “expanding the Democratic map” and moves him more toward trying to hold Kerry states and battling in the “traditional” swing states like Ohio.
Georgia (15 ev): Georgia is another state that at one point Obama had hoped to flip, or at least force McCain into needing to expend resources there to hold it. Despite putting in a lot of resources here, he never really got very far. My five point average never showed McCain ahead by less than 5%. So Georgia has always been a “red state” and never slipped into being a swing state. But now McCain’s position has been consolidated. In today’s update, McCain’s lead in Georgia moves over 10%, moving Georgia from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. This is far enough away from being a swing state, that Obama probably shouldn’t even waste any more effort here.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 324, Obama 214
Obama Best Case – Obama 366, McCain 172
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
So for now, McCain’s momentum continues.
The state by state polls continue to come in and as they do so they continue to confirm a big move in McCain’s direction over the last few weeks. Today there are three states full of bad news for Obama. Once again in order of electoral college strength:
Pennsylvania (21 ev): Obama’s lead falls to less than 5% moving the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”. With a lead this small, Pennsylvania should now be considered too close to call. It is now a swing state, and is within possible reach for McCain. Given the 21 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, this is a big deal. The only swing state with more electoral votes is Florida.
New Mexico (5 ev): As in Pennsylvania, Obama’s lead falls to less than 5%, moving New Mexico into the swing state category. At only 5 electoral votes, this is less important than Pennsylvania, but given that Obama was hoping to make some inroads in the West, it shows problems in Obama’s hopes to make “map changing” happen this cycle.
Alaska (3 ev): The Palin effect continues. One week ago Alaska moved from “Lean McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Today the five poll average pushes McCain’s lead in Alaska over 10% and moves the state to “Strong McCain”. Before Palin, Obama had hoped to perhaps actually make Alaska competitive. When Palin was added, any hope of that essentially dissipated overnight. It has just taken a couple of weeks for new polls to push old pre-Palin polls out of the average and show this new dynamic.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 324, Obama 214
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
The trend over the last week has been very strongly toward McCain. Obama is now in the weakest position he has been in since late May. And things seems to have returned to the mode of late July and early August, where McCain is defining the agenda and the debate, and the Obama campaign is simply reacting and defending instead of pushing their own vision and direction.
Is this just a convention bounce for McCain which was large enough to completely overwhelm Obama’s earlier bounce? Convention bounces usually last about two weeks in the national polls. It may take three weeks to see the effect in state polls. So it will take a few weeks yet to see if the gains of the last week are temporary due to the convention, or if they represent the true new state of the race. Of course, given how little time is left until the election, two or three weeks is forever.
For the moment though, while the overall situation still slightly favors Obama, all the momentum is in McCain’s direction. McCain just needs to flip one more of Obama’s leaning states (currently Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire) to take the lead in the “if everybody gets all states they are even slightly ahead in” count. At the moment, New Hampshire is the most vulnerable of that group, with Obama only having a 1.4% lead in the five poll average. An interesting note there. If New Hampshire flips and everything else stays the same, then McCain wouldn’t actually take the lead in that count. We’d have a 269-269 electoral tie. (If any of the others flipped, McCain would have a clear lead.)
Because there were almost new state polls during the two weeks of the conventions, it was not really possible to see separate bounces from the two conventions. Right before the conventions, Obama managed to reverse some of the momentum McCain had in late July and early August. Now that the conventions are over, we are getting bunches of state polls again, now looking at the state of the race after both VP choices and both conventions.
Today the news is all bad for Obama. In order of electoral college votes, here are the states that change category in today’s updates:
Ohio (20 ev): I am half tempted to not even report when “leaning” states flip from one side of the fence to the other. Either way, the real way to look at it is that the state is too close to call. The moving back and forth on who is slightly in the lead is probably just random. In this case, we go from Obama being ahead by 0.2% in my five poll average, to McCain being ahead by 0.2% in the five poll average. Either way, it is a tie race. But it gives McCain bragging rights to put Ohio in the “if everybody gets their leans” category.
Michigan (17 ev): Of the changes today, this is actually probably the most significant. Obama’s lead in Michigan drops (once again) to less than 5%, thus moving the state back from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama” and bringing the state into the inventory of swing states that could easily go either way. With McCain having a shot in Michigan, it opens up the range of possible ways for him to win significantly. Instead of having to sweep seven swing states to find a path to victory, if he can bring Michigan into play, he gets a situation where the only “Must Win” state is Florida.
Virginia (13 ev): This is another one where there really isn’t a significant change other than bragging rights to the current lead. Virginia goes from Obama being ahead by 0.2%, to McCain being ahead by 0.2%. In reality, this is just too close to call. As I keep saying, all of the swing states should really be considered too close to call… even the ones where one candidate is ahead by 4.9%. But in the cases of Ohio and Virginia, we really are just bouncing around the “completely dead even” line.
Washington (11 ev): As happened with several states in August, the five poll average in Washington now drops below a 10% lead for Obama. So the state moves from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. Still quite a way from becoming a swing state, but it shows overall weakening, even in states that should be completely secure for Obama.
Given all of the above, the overall summary of the race changes a decent bit:
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
That last set of numbers, with everybody getting every state they are even slightly ahead in, is once again looking like an incredibly close race. One that could easily come down to very close results in one or two states.
I also note that although no category changes happened, new polls showed Obama weakening in Pennsylvania and Colorado as well. This was not a good poll day for Obama. The only bright spot for Obama was a very slight improvement in Florida.
Over all though, it looks like in the immediate aftermath of the conventions, McCain has undone Obama’s “pre-bounce bounce” and we’re in approximately the same place we were around August 22nd… which is an Obama advantage, with Obama only a couple of states away from the win when you give him all the states where he is ahead by more than 5%… but with McCain with the apparent edge in most of the swing states… enough to bring him right up to the edge of winning (but not quite) if he got all the states he is ahead in.
After a drought of state polls during the conventions, they started coming out again in time for today’s updates. Only one state changed categories though. Alaska, Sarah Palin’s home state, which had recently moved into swing state territory, moves back from “Lean McCain” to “Weak McCain”. The new Alaska poll was taken after the announcement of her VP selection, but before her acceptance speech. Over the next week or so we should start seeing if there is any other movement due to the after effects of the two conventions.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
Two states flip today, one from Obama to McCain, and one from McCain to Obama. I caution however that both of these states are not just “leaning” swing states, they are both states where the margin is 1% or less. In other words, flipping from one side of the line to the other is not really that meaningful. They are both too close to call.
In general, I try to make the same point about ALL of the “leaning states”. Yeah, one where the leading candidate is ahead by 4.9% might be a little better for the candidate than one where they are ahead by 0.1%. But really, the primaries showed us that a 5% lead can evaporate in a matter of days if the right set of events happen. And even the consensus average of pollsters can be off by more than that. So any lead under 5% should be considered too close to call.
Anyway, the two states, in order by electoral college vote:
Ohio (20 electoral votes): Flips from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. It flipped in the other direction just five days ago.
Nevada (5 electoral votes): Flips from Leaning Obama to Leaning McCain. It flipped in the other direction just two days ago.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232
As mentioned above, all of the lean states really could easily go either way. That is why they are lean states. So any observers should be cautioned to not pay all that much attention to the “everybody gets their leans” number. Rather, anything between the two best cases listed is quite possible.
But this DOES at least look like the McCain momentum of the last month has been blunted. We’ll see over the next week if the trend continues and turns into a real “bounce” for Obama.
Of course, the Republican convention is immediately after the Democratic convention, so any bounce may be short lived.
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