This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
|
Polls in 14 states today. Only one changes. And yes, it is Florida flipping back once again from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”. Again, it seems like Florida is just hovering around my 5% Obama lead boundary line between these two categories, so it keeps bouncing back and forth. I am getting tired of moving it every day though, so I wish Florida would hurry up and make up its mind.
Having said that, it is bouncing around a 5% Obama lead, not bouncing around the 0% line, so while it makes the “Weak Obama” line on my chart look a little erratic, the state of the race doesn’t really change. We have Florida in a bit of an unstable quantum superposition between the two categories. At some point, the election at the latest, the quantum state will collapse.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Not much else to say. Once again I think we are pretty much at Obama’s peak (or perhaps a bit below with Florida in the Lean category today). There are still a few states he might be able to pull in, but there are also some states that could easily swing back toward McCain…
Right now though, I think we are basically in a steady state. Of course if any events happen that actually start giving one or the other candidate some additional momentum, that could change.
And really, come on, I’d like at least a LITTLE suspense on election night. McCain needs to figure out some way to tighten this up a bit. Get to work on that John, OK? Thanks.
Only one change today. Florida once again flip flops and moves from “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama” as the five poll average once again peeks above 5%. As I’ve mentioned the last few updates when Florida has switched, it looks like what is really happening is that Florida is hovering right around a 5% Obama lead. 5% just happens to be the boundaries between my categories. So it bounces back and forth. Since Florida has 27 electoral votes, this moves the “Weak Obama” line fairly significantly each time it happens. But the actual state of the race is not substantially different. If Florida switches status, and then stays there more than a few days, then maybe we could really say that it *is* a place where Obama has less than a 5% lead and therefore call it a swing state where McCain has a chance and Obama needs to worry, or that it *is* a place where Obama is ahead by more than 5% and is therefore relatively safe Obama territory. But really, at the moment anyway, it is right on the edge between those categories.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 313, McCain 225
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Looking at the various trends line, and visually averaging out the effects of Florida bouncing back and forth, it appears that the movement toward Obama is *still* going on. We have not yet seen a peak and a start of a reversion back to McCain as we approach the election. I keep thinking that Obama *must* be close to his maximum possible support levels, but so far, we just haven’t seen the movement actually stop.
And we now have McCain’s best case scenario, where he sweeps all the remaining swing states (as per today’s update, NOT including Florida), being that he loses by 88 electoral votes. This is his worst position yet.
Four States change status today. 3 move in Obama’s direction, 1 moves in McCain’s direction.
Florida (27 ev): As I cautioned in previous updates, Florida was JUST in the “Weak Obama” category and a single poll could easily move it back to “Lean Obama”. This has in fact happened. Florida has flipped back and forth between “Lean Obama” and “Weak Obama” several times in the last couple of weeks. This basically means that the state is hovering around an Obama lead of 5%, which is the boundary between those two categories. There has not yet been a sustained move that keeps the state in one or the other category for a longer period of time. We’ll see if this time is different.
Missouri (11 ev): With the latest polls the five poll average moves from “Lean McCain” to “Lean Obama”. The usual caution applies. We are moving from just barely McCain, to just barely Obama. Either way, it is really too close to call. This is a swing state. Not too much should be read into the state being on one side of the line or the other, because the random variations of polls, or an event in the news that changes a few people’s minds, can very easily flip it back to the other side.
Wisconsin (10 ev): Obama’s lead in the five poll average moves to more than 10%, so Wisconsin moves from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”.
Colorado (9 ev): Obama’s lead in the five poll average moves to more than 5%, so it moves from “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama” and thus Colorado is no longer a swing state by my classifications. Colorado is smaller than Florida obviously, so this does not make up completely for Florida’s return to swing state status today, but it does mitigate it.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
So the net today is that McCain’s best case gets better, as it once again looks like he might have a shot at Florida if he pushes really hard there… although even so, his best case is still to lose by 34 electoral votes… which indeed is a smaller loss than that metric showed yesterday, but it is still a loss.
Meanwhile, Obama increases his potential winning margin in the “everybody gets their leans” metric to 190 electoral votes.
All in all, despite today’s weakening in Florida, overall trends continue to be toward Obama. Could the Florida change be the start of a movement back toward McCain that will make things tighter again? Maybe. But for the moment it looks more like just Florida bouncing around near a 5% Obama lead.
I keep expecting to see some tightening, and some amount of movement back toward McCain as election day gets closer. But as of yet, I don’t see it.
Today Obama’s lead in Florida (according to my “last five polls” average) once again hits 5%. This moves Florida once again out of “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama” and out of swing state territory. I caution though that Florida is RIGHT at the 5% line. Depending on the next polls, it could just as easily slip back into being a swing state as pull further away. It is right on the edge. But the trend on the overall charts remain clear. Obama’s strength continues to increase.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 304, McCain 234
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
So now even McCain’s best case has Obama getting over 300 electoral votes and winning by a 70 electoral vote margin. That is just… sad.
OK, I shouldn’t say that. Lets put this in historical context. If everybody gets their leans, Obama will win by 168 electoral votes. Here are the last ten elections in order by how big a margin the winner won by, with the hypothetical Obama lead in the place it would be.
#1) 1984 – Reagan beats Mondale by 512 electoral votes
#2) 1972 – Nixon beats McGovern by 503 electoral votes
#3) 1980 – Reagan beats Carter by 440 electoral votes
#4) 1988 – GHW Bush beats Dukakis by 315 electoral votes
#5) 1996 – Clinton beats Dole by 220 electoral votes
#6) 1992 – Clinton beats GHW Bush by 202 electoral votes
(Hypothetical) 2008 – Obama beats McCain by 168 electoral votes
#7) 1968 – Nixon beats Humphrey by 110 electoral votes (Wallace also got 46 electoral votes)
#8) 1976 – Carter beats Ford by 57 electoral votes
#9) 2004 – GW Bush beats Kerry by 35 electoral votes
#10) 2000 – GW Bush beats Gore by 5 electoral votes
So this LOOKS like a big margin, because we remember 2000 and 2004… the two closest elections in the last 40 years. But really, the average winning margin over the last 10 elections has been 240 electoral votes or so. The median is more like 211. So the margins we are seeing here are not really unusual in any way.
So McCain doesn’t have to feel like he is as big a loser as Mondale or McGovern.
More like as big a loser as GHW Bush or Humphrey. :-)
Three changes today. All three are in Obama’s favor.
First, Obama’s lead goes over 10% in Michigan (17 ev) and New Hampshire (4 ev), making them both into “Strong Obama” states rather than “Weak Obama”. Both of these states were swing states just a few weeks ago. McCain’s support in both has just completely collapsed.
Second, McCain’s lead in West Virginia drops to less than 5%, making West Virginia into a swing state. West Virginia has been very sparsely polled, but McCain’s margin has been consistantly decreasing with each new poll. The new poll today in West Virginia actually shows Obama *ahead*, but we still keep the state Lean McCain based on the weight of the previous polls. In this particular election cycle, seeing West Virginia threatening to go for Obama seems somewhat shocking. You just don’t think of West Virginia as a possible Obama state. Especially because of how well he got crushed there by Hillary in the primaries… and frankly, due to some of the stereotypes people tend to have about West Virginia. But we probably should not really be that surprised. West Virginia has gone Democrat for 6 out of the last 10 Presidential elections. It is the home of Robert Bryd, the longest serving Senator and a Democrat. There are more registered Democrats than Registered Republicans. The state is not actually one of the “always Republican in living memory” sort of states. Nevertheless, the fact that Obama is pulling “Weak McCain” states into swing state status shows just where we are in this race.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
Look at that. Not only is McCain’s best case still to lose, but Obama’s best case now has him winning by a 222 electoral vote margin. There is no standard definition of a landslide. Fivethirtyeight.com defines it as 375 electoral votes or more. Obama’s best case is now in that world. And even the “everybody gets their leans” number has a 168 electoral vote margin for Obama.
And that just deserves a “wow” when compared to the close elections of the last couple of cycles.
We saw a little bit of movement toward McCain when Florida dropped back into swing state status a few days ago, but for the most part, looking at the tends, we are STILL seeing Obama continue to strengthen his position.
Can it continue? Can Obama strengthen in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado or Nevada to make them NOT close? Maybe. Can Obama take the leads in Indiana, Missouri or West Virginia? Maybe. Can Obama start making it close again in Georgia, Arkansas, Montana or North Dakota? A week or two ago I would have said that was impossible. Now, I’m no longer so sure. Obama may not have reached his peak yet.
At this point I start to wonder if McCain has already internally resigned himself to the fact that he is going to lose, or if he really still thinks he can do this. And if he does, how does he thing he can do it? Because for that to happen, something major has to happen that completely changes the game.
And nothing McCain has been doing seems to be working. At all. In fact, it seems to be driving people toward Obama.
It almost makes me feel sorry for McCain.
Three states flip status today, one good news for McCain, which has been rare the last couple of weeks… and it is a big one… and two with good news for Obama.
Florida (27 ev): As has been mentioned before, Florida was in “Weak Obama” territory, but the five poll average was just BARELY over 5%, and one poll could easily knock it down below that level again. This has indeed happened, and I once again classify Florida as “Lean Obama” and a swing state. This is the good news for McCain, since without Florida it is essentially impossible for him to see a path to victory. And in fact, if this had been the only change of the day, there would indeed now be a way for McCain to win, although it would involve him sweeping ALL of the swing states. But, there were other changes too.
Georgia (15 ev): McCain’s lead slips to below 10% in the last five poll average. This moves Georgia from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. McCain’s lead in Georgia is still substantial. It is not about to become a swing state. But this means that McCain is even seeing some weakening in his base states.
Virginia (13 ev): Obama’s lead in Virginia in the last five poll average now pokes above 5%. So Virginia moves from “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama”. Remember, it was not that long ago that this state was leaning toward McCain. Things have changed quickly. Virginia has voted Republican in all of the last ten elections. The last time Virginia voted Democratic was for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So this is a big pick up.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
Swapping Virginia for Florida is not an even trade. Because Florida has more electoral votes, Obama loses some ground here. However, Virginia was big enough that despite Florida once again moving to be a swing state, John McCain’s best case if he won every single swing state is still to LOSE. It would however be a closer loss than it would have been without Florida.
Is this the beginning of the narrowing I predicted in previous updates and in the podcast? I will refrain from saying so just yet. The one new poll in Florida that pulled the state back into being a swing state was from a new pollster. This is the first poll of theirs to show up, and it is a bit of an outlier from other recent polls (it actually showed McCain slightly ahead).
So while I do expect some tightening (basically, an increase in the inventory of swing states) over the next month, since I think Obama has to be near his realistically possible maximum… I’m not sure that this is evidence of this quite yet. We’ll need to watch how things move over the rest of the week to see if this trend is confirmed by other movements.
Edit: 8 Oct 2008 22:42, fixed error where I accidentally said McCain in a couple places where I meant Obama.
Today Minnesota, which has been flirting with the 5% Obama lead line, once again goes over 5%. So Minnesota stops being a swing state, and goes into the “Weak Obama” category. The effect, McCain’s best case scenario moves even further from being a win.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 291, McCain 247
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
Now, even with this, if Florida weakens back into a swing state, McCain will have a path to victory… a hard path, which would involve sweeping all the swing states, even those Obama is ahead in… but it would be a path.
But for the moment, we continue to have a situation where McCain’s best case is losing.
Which is why he campaign has indicated that they are essentially about to enter into a scorched earth strategy. All negative, and with everything they have. It is about the only thing they can do at the moment. We’ll see if it works.
Only one change today, one that continues the trend toward Obama.
Obama’s lead in New Hampshire pops over 5%, thus once again making New Hampshire a “Lean Obama” state, and takes the state out of swing state status.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 281, McCain 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
New England is once again fully blue, with New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland thrown in for good measure.
We continue to have a situation where John McCain’s best case scenario is still a loss.
It is important to point out however that this situation hangs on the status of Florida, which is just BARELY over the 5% threshold in the five poll average. So even a slight variation in Florida polls could put us back into a situation where McCain has a path to victory. A hard path perhaps, but still a path.
I am of course kidding with the title. I would honestly be surprised if the situation today lasts through election day without the race tightening again somewhat. However, today’s update is a very significant milestone for Barack Obama.
First, canceling each other out exactly, Wisconsin (10 ev) moves from Lean Obama to Weak Obama, and Minnesota (10 ev) moves from Weak Obama to Lean Obama. If Wisconsin had moved and Minnesota had not, this would contribute even more strongly to the result today, but because of Minnesota, it is a wash.
However… today the five poll average in Florida, for the very first time, shows an Obama lead of more than 5%. This makes Florida a “Weak Obama” state, and pulls it out of swing state status. So winning Florida is no longer considered in my “Best Case Scenario” for John McCain. And where does that leave us?
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
That’s right. You saw it correctly.
As of right now, John McCain’s best case scenario is TO LOSE. He could win EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE… and he would STILL LOSE.
Let me just let that sink in.
As of right now, John McCain’s best case scenario is TO LOSE. He could win EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE… and he would STILL LOSE.
OK. Now perhaps a little reality. I fully expect some of the “Weak Obama” states may end up becoming swing states again before this is done. (Like Minnesota did today for instance.) So this situation will PROBABLY not last. Probably. Assuming that McCain is able to reverse some of his recent fortunes and is really near his bottom and can’t go much lower.
On the other hand, if the McCain campaign continues to collapse, we may be on the way to a landslide.
Just over one month to go. Time is running out. If McCain managed to reverse this and win it would be an amazing comeback. We’ll see if he can manage it.
The surge toward Obama continues today, with two more states moving in his direction:
Minnesota (10 ev): Obama’s lead goes back above 5%, moving the state from Lean Obama to Weak Obama, and making it no longer a swing state.
Nevada (5 ev): The five poll average moves from Lean McCain to Lean Obama. The usual comments… either way, too close to call, don’t read too much into it, blah blah blah.
OK, new summary:
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 288, Obama 250
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
So, the main thing is once again that the rapid movement of states in the Obama direction continues. The “everybody gets their leans” number continues to be an all time high for Obama. The “Strong+Weak” count for Obama is now 250, which isn’t quite the 261 it was back in July, but it is pretty close.
Obama now only needs to flip 20 more electoral votes from “Lean” to “Weak” to be able to win without any swing states at all.
Right now in my last five poll averages we have Florida (27 ev) at a 4.6% Obama lead, Virginia (13 ev) at a 4.2% Obama lead and Wisconsin (10 ev) at a 4.6% Obama lead. Any of those three could easily move from “Lean” to “Weak” by going over 5% with even one more poll showing a better than 5% lead.
There is still over a month until the election, and much can happen, so I’m not ready to say anything about what things might look like on election eve. To be sure, any of those states could start heading the other direction at any moment… that is probably actually somewhat likely… but at the same time I would not be surprised at all if sometime within the next week we see a situation where McCain’s best case is still a loss.
|
|