This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
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So after the massive wave of states moving toward Obama yesterday, today we have three move in the other direction.
Pennsylvania (21 ev): McCain’s decision to spend lots and lots of time and effort in Pennsylvania these last couple of weeks starts to bear fruit. He has managed to take Obama’s lead from its peak a couple of weeks ago at 14.1% and has now pulled it to below 10%. As such, the state moves from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. Unfortunately for McCain, since the state is still quite a long way from being a swing state, it makes no difference to the summary of possible results.
Arizona (10 ev): After a brief one day flirtation with being a swing state, McCain’s lead in Arizona once again goes over 5%, taking his home state back out of that category, and back into “Weak McCain” status.
Wisconsin (10 ev): After a couple of weeks as a strong state, Obama’s lead in Wisconsin once again falls below 10% and becomes a “Weak Obama” state. As with Pennsylvania, it makes no difference to the overall summary.
All of these changes together mean we have this new summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama Best Case – Obama 396, McCain 142
If everybody gets their leans – 375 Obama, 163 McCain
Prior to today, Obama had been very close to being able to win this election with only states he was ahead in by more than 10%, not only not needing the swing states, but not needing his weak states either. With Pennsylvania and Wisconsin both dipping back into “Weak” territory, that scenario now seems hard to reach given we only have a few days left. (Unless of course both states bounce right back tomorrow, which is always possible.)
Having said that though, the fundamentals don’t change. “Weak” states are states the candidate actually can feel relatively safe in, but which the other candidate might have a chance if they push really really hard, or if some major event suddenly changes the dynamics of the race. This kind of thing can of course still happen, but there is now very very little time for such dramatic changes.
The basics have been the same as they have been almost all month. McCain can win every state he is ahead in, plus every state Obama is ahead in by less than 5%, and he would still lose.
Right now, to actually win, McCain needs to win all of the states he is ahead in, all of the states Obama is ahead in by less than 5%, and then he needs to collect at least 43 electoral votes from the states Obama is ahead in by more than 5%… most likely from the weak states… as of today, here is what he has to choose from… Pennsylvania (21 ev), Ohio (20 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Wisconsin (10 ev), Colorado (9 ev), Nevada (5 ev), New Mexico (5 ev). There are several ways to get 43 electoral votes out of that mix.
But given that to even have any of those states matter, McCain has to have already managed to hold all his own states, plus win Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri, all of which Obama is currently ahead in (although not by much), and then pull a minimum of three of these weak states where Obama is now ahead by significant margins… it is a very hard road.
Polls in 20 states today. Category changes in seven states. ALL SEVEN move toward Obama.
This was a very bad day in the polls for John McCain.
In order of electoral vote weight:
Ohio (20 ev): Obama’s lead in Ohio once again goes over 5%. Ohio is again out of swing state territory. It has bounced back and forth over the past few days though, so it would be no surprise if it moves again.
Indiana (11 ev): Indiana flips to Obama as he takes the lead in the last five poll average of the state for the very first time.
Arizona (10 ev): As more polls come in for Arizona, John McCain’s lead in his own state drops below 5% and Arizona becomes a swing state.
Mississippi (6 ev): John McCain’s lead in Mississippi drops below 10%. This is a long way from being a swing state, but it shows even McCain’s strong states are weakening.
Nevada (5 ev): Obama’s lead goes above 5%, making the state no longer a swing state.
New Hampshire (4 ev): Obama’s lead goes above 10%, moving the state from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”.
Montana (3 ev): McCain’s lead in Montana in the five poll average drops below 5%, making this once again a swing state.
All of these changes together mean we have this new summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama Best Case – Obama 406, McCain 132
If everybody gets their leans – 375 Obama, 163 McCain
This is frankly just stunning. Lets look at this.
If John McCain wins every single swing state… that is, every state he is ahead in, plus every state Obama is ahead in by less than 5%… then he still loses by 84 electoral votes.
If everybody just gets every state they are currently ahead in, then Obama gets 375 electoral votes, which is one common definition of a landslide.
If Obama actually wins all of the states McCain is ahead by less than 5% in as well, he will top 400 electoral votes.
A quick recap here…
All Obama has to do is hold the states he is ahead in today, and he wins by a landslide, and he has the opportunity to make that win even bigger if he steals some McCain states.
And even if he doesn’t win Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri… which are all indeed very close and could go either way… he still wins by a substantial margin.
McCain’s only hope is that basically EVERY swing state (plus some Weak Obama states) pull a New Hampshire. As a reminder, if you had categorized the Democratic Primary between Obama and Clinton in New Hampshire by my Weak/Strong/Lean categories, Obama was ahead based on a “last five poll average” by 8.6%, which would have made New Hampshire “Weak Obama”. But Obama lost that primary. So it does happen. It is not impossible. And you would expect that every once in awhile that would happen just by poll error alone, but you also had significant events happen in the last couple of days before that primary which happened too late for the polls to reflect them. That could happen again.
But… it would have to happen not just in one state, but in a LOT of states. The chances of that happening are not zero, but they are very small. fivethirtyeight.com actually puts a number on that in their simulations. As of today, they give a 3.8% chance of McCain managing upsets in enough states to win.
I’ll stick with my methods and categories though, and say that at the moment McCain has no path to victory. If he manages to move a bunch of states before election day, that may change. But so far, there does not seem to be any trend in his direction. In fact, the trend toward Obama is continuing. States that seemed to be absolutely impossible for Obama are now in play. It really does seem that we now are just debating just how massive Obama’s win will be. McCain winning is not a possibility that is seriously in play at the moment.
There is only one word for where we are now: Wow.
Edit 18:49 – Fixed a typo and a miscopied McCain total in the everybody gets their leans case.
Polls in 23 states today. Category changes in only 2.
Ohio (20 ev): After a few days as a “Weak Obama” state, Obama’s lead in Ohio once again drops below 5%. That makes Ohio a swing state again. Woo! This change puts Ohio in reach for McCain again, which substantially boosts his best case scenario.
Arizona (10 ev): John McCain’s lead in his home state of Arizona, which has been above 10% since September, once again falls below 10% in the last five poll average. This moves Arizona from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Since we aren’t changing the list of swing states, this has no effect on the overall situation summary.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 393, McCain 145
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Really, not much has changed for the last several weeks. Several states have bounced back and forth between “Lean Obama” and “Weak Obama” and thus in and out of swing state status. But since October 3rd, we have continued to have a situation where McCain winning all of his own leaning states, then stealing all of Obama’s leaning states, would still not have enough electoral votes to win. The only thing that has really been changing has been just how much of a loss McCain’s “best case” is.
To win right now, McCain has to do better than the “best case” that I describe. He not only has to hold all of his strong and weak states, win EVERY swing state he is ahead in (Georgia, Indiana and North Dakota), and ALL of the swing states Obama is ahead in (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada). He also has to win at least 18 electoral votes from states that Obama is more than 5% ahead in. That means he must take Virginia and then either Colorado or New Mexico.
Or, yes, Pennsylvania would do it too rather than the combinations above. But Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania is much larger than in the states above. John McCain seems to think Pennsylvania is an easier state to move though. So far, the polls have not supported that idea. But maybe he knows something we don’t.
Sundays are usually slow, but we still get some action and three states moving today.
Virginia (13 ev): After just two days below the line, Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Virginia once again goes over 5%. It is still near the line, so it could go back with the next polls, but for now, Virginia is once again “Weak Obama” and no longer a swing state.
Colorado (9 ev): After five days as a swing state, Obama’s lead in Colorado also goes back over 5%. So, like Virginia, Colorado once again goes into the “Weak Obama” category and out of swing state status.
Arkansas (6 ev): The one piece of good news for McCain today. McCain’s lead in Arkansas once again goes over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. Unfortunately for John McCain, this is just a little strengthening in a state he was going to win anyway.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 306, McCain 232
Obama Best Case – Obama 393, McCain 145
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Not much new to report in terms of overall summary though.
McCain’s best case is still to win every swing state… and still lose the election.
The only things that have been changing in the analysis lately are how badly McCain loses in his best case, and just how much of a landslide Obama gets in his best case.
The “everybody gets their leans” line hasn’t moved in 11 days.
Yawn!
Edit 23:47 – Fixed numbers which were accidentally reversed as per comment.
Polls in a full 24 states today, but only changes in two… one good news for McCain, one good news for Obama.
Georgia (15 ev): McCain’s lead in Georgia, which one month ago was almost 15%, has now fallen below 5%. This means Georgia is now “Lean McCain” and moves into the world of a swing state. McCain is still ahead, but it is within reach of Obama. Obama had targeted this state earlier in the campaign, but then pulled out when it seemed he was making no traction there and McCain would hold his lead. That lead has now evaporated, and Obama is putting resources back in the state. Could it actually tip to Obama? Maybe.
Virginia (13 ev): Obama’s lead seemed to peak just under 8% a little over a week ago. Polls since then have shown weakening, and today Obama’s lead falls below 5%, putting Virginia back into swing state status. This puts it once again within reach for McCain. If the trend of the last few days in Virginia holds, McCain could pull the state back into his column before the election.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 284, McCain 254
Obama Best Case – Obama 393, McCain 145
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
So, as usual, McCain’s best case after winning all of the states that are currently close, would still be to lose by 30 electoral votes. Having Virginia as possible does make his best case loss not quite as bad a loss as without it of course.
Meanwhile, Obama’s best case is now fully within landslide territory. Not everybody agrees on exactly what a landslide is, but one definition is getting over 375 electoral votes, and we’re certainly there in Obama’s best case. Even the “everybody gets their leans” is close to that mark.
If McCain manages to pull Ohio back to being competitive, he would have a potential path for victory. He would need to win all the states he is currently ahead in, plus Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio. That would be a long and hard path, but it is his only path right now.
Of course, he’s spending his time and money in Pennsylvania instead. You could potentially substitute Pennsylvania for Ohio in the scenario above and have almost the same math, but he is much farther behind in Pennsylvania than he is in Ohio at the moment. So who knows what he is thinking.
Three states change status today:
Ohio (20 ev): The prototypical swing state is no longer a swing state, as Obama’s lead in the last five poll average moves over 5% in Ohio. Ohio is now “Weak Obama”. Could the next poll knock it back down into swing state status? Sure. It is close to the boundary between the categories. But for now, Ohio goes blue.
Minnesota (10 ev): Obama’s lead moves over 10%, making Minnesota “Strong Obama” once again. It had been strong Obama up through mid-August, then got tighter until it was a swing state for a bit in September. Since then Obama’s lead has been climbing until now it is once again Strong Obama.
West Virginia (5 ev): After having had McCain’s lead weaken and becoming a “Lean McCain” swing state for most of October, McCain reopens the lead. Today his lead in the five poll average again goes over 5%, and West Virginia again turns red.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 297, McCain 241
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
So Obama’s best case isn’t quite as good as it was, and McCain’s best case gets worse as well. Of course, Ohio is 20 electoral votes and West Virginia is only 5, so Obama wins on this exchange.
Of course, McCain’s best case was already to lose. Today’s change just means his best case is to lose by even more.
If Ohio does not immediately switch back with the next polls, it looks as if the progress McCain looked like he was making in the last week or so may have been reversed. The line that represents Obama’s position with Strong+Weak states is now once again moving in Obama’s direction.
Meanwhile though, the “Strong Obama” line just keeps moving further in Obama’s direction. With ONLY HIS STRONG STATES Obama is now only 15 electoral college votes away from winning.
This may be a good time to point out that all the “Action” we have been talking about in these updates lately is related to the lines representing where Obama is WITHOUT ANY SWING STATES. The question we have been tracking is not if Obama is winning or losing, it is if he even needs any of the close states to do it. (And since October 3rd, the answer has been “no”.)
But if you look at the line that represents everybody getting every state they are even slightly ahead in… McCain has only been in the lead for ONE DAY since May 23rd. (He managed a tie for 8 additional days.)
This line, the actual who is ahead line, has not had any moves in McCain’s direction in OVER A MONTH. Since September 18th when McCain peaked, every single state that has actually had the lead switch has switched to Obama. Every single one.
This may change. Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada all have relatively slim Obama leads. But still… winning all of them seems like a big stretch. And even that would not be enough.
McCain has no time left.
The only questions at this point are about just how big Obama’s win will be, not if he wins.
Absent a catastrophic event that changes everything of course. Those do sometimes happen. But there are only 12 days left.
Today Obama moves to leads greater than 10% in both Washingotn (11 ev) and Maine (4 ev). Those states thus become “Strong Obama” states. Since they were not swing states anyway, these changes do not affect my overall summary.
Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 383, McCain 155
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
So where does that put us?
Well, McCain’s best case if he wins every single swing state is still to lose.
Over the last week or so, McCain has been able to move a couple of states (Florida and Colorado) from being blue states back to being swing states. The lead hasn’t flipped toward McCain in any of the swing states, but he has made them close again, which is of course the needed first step. He still however needs to pull at least 9 more electoral votes from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama” in order to have a possible path to victory.
Meanwhile, there is another line I hadn’t paid much attention to lately. That is the “Strong Obama” line. That is, the number of electoral votes Obama has including ONLY the states where his lead is over 10%. Obama does not seem to have peaked yet on this metric. Obama now has 245 electoral votes with just these states. That means he only needs 25 electoral votes from his Weak or Lean states in order to win. There are 119 electoral votes in those categories at the moment that he can pick from to try to get those 25.
The question here is not if McCain can win. The question is if he can even pull enough states back out of Obama’s world to even have an imaginable way to win.
Today Obama’s lead in Colorado drops below 5%, moving that state from “Weak Obama” back into swing state status. This expands the inventory of swing states, and improves McCain’s best case that assumes he gets all the swing states.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 383, McCain 155
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Now, this still has McCain’s best case being to lose. However, it has him losing by much less than he has been. Looking back at the last week, Florida finally stopped moving around, and seems to have stabilized as a “Lean Obama” swing state, but still a swing state, and within reach of McCain. It now looks clear that Obama peaked around October 15th (at least on the currently most important “Weak Obama” line) and we are now seeing the predicted tightening in the race.
Now, for McCain to actually have a path to victory, he needs to move at least 9 more electoral votes into swing state status out of “Weak Obama”. That means he needs to get Obama’s lead down to less than 5%. (And then of course he has to take the lead, but one step at a time.)
The current Weak Obama states are: Virginia (13 ev) 8.0% Obama lead, Washington (11 ev) 9.6% Obama lead, Minnesota (10 ev) 9.8% Obama lead, New Mexico (5 ev) 7.5% Obama lead, Maine (4 ev) 9.6% Obama lead, New Hampshire (4 ev) 8.4% Obama lead. You can work out for yourself possible plans for McCain to pull some of those down, but it looks like a long road.
(Additionally, a corrective note, I’m not sure how I missed it on the day it happened, but on October 14th New Jersey moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama. I have retroactively corrected the charts as of today, but obviously not my comments from the days since then or the thumbnail charts in those comments. Since it does not change the swing states, this would not have affected any of the summary numbers. It does however make the charts look even stronger for Obama than they did with New Jersey as a “Weak Obama” state.)
13 states, 1 change. McCain’s lead in North Dakota slips to under 5%, so the state moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” and it once again is a swing state. Now, the 3 electoral votes from North Dakota will most likely not make any difference. But North Dakota being in play again just shows the extent of Obama’s current lead.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 383, McCain 155
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Overall, despite North Dakota’s move, it seems that overall Obama’s lead has peaked. Looking at some of the polls in states where the category did not change, there may be some additional moves toward McCain in the wings if more individual polls move in his direction. I certainly still expect some tightening before we get to election day. But we still don’t really see it in the state by state analysis.
Polls in 17 states today, but once again, only one state changes status. And this time it is NOT Florida. Obama’s lead in the last five poll average slips below 10% in New Hampshire. It has only moved into “Strong Obama” one week ago. Now it slips back to “Weak Obama”. Since New Hampshire is still not even close to being a swing state, this makes no difference to the summaries.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Between Florida staying in swing state territory for more than a day, and New Hampshire weakening a bit, if you choose to, you can look at this and start to see some movement toward McCain, perhaps indicating the start of the tightening in the race that one would generally expect in the last few weeks. I don’t think we really have enough evidence for that quite yet though. If a few more states move in McCain’s direction over the next few days, then we will be able to say that. But not yet.
For the moment, McCain is still in a very bad position, still giving Obama a victory even if McCain wins every single state that is close right now. To have a chance he needs to start pulling some Obama Weak states back down to Obama Lean, and some Obama Lean to McCain Lean. And he needs to do it fast.
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