This is the 04:00 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time.

That was just one state. Virginia, a “Weak Obama” state, was called for Obama.

Also, I noticed that in the 03:00 Update, I accidentally moved Nevada in my spreadsheet instead of New Mexico. They have the same number of electoral votes, so the “Won” lines didn’t change, but since New Mexico was Strong Obama while Nevada was only Weak Obama, this meant the McCain SuperBest line moved down prematurely. I have retroactively corrected the chart here and on the main page, but not on previous posts.

New summary:

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

Still no surprises.

This is the update for 03:15 UTC, covering states called in the 15 minutes before that.

A bunch more strong states go to the expected people.

Iowa to Obama, along with the 1 leftover electoral college vote from Maine.

Utah, Kansas and Arkansas for McCain.

Since these are all strong states, the summary does not change.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 289, McCain 249
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

There still have not been any surprises.

This is the 02:45 UTC update covering the 15 minutes before that point.

One state was called. Ohio went to Obama. Ohio was a “Weak Obama” state.

This makes even McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario… which was incredibly generous and frankly unrealistic… still an Obama victory.

THIS. IS. OVER.

Obama is the President Elect.

The networks will probably not call it until they actually call 270+ electoral votes for him. But it is over.

We now just look at how big a win he gets.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 284, McCain 254
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

There still have not yet been any states that have not gone the way they were predicted in my averages. We still have six “swing” states that were too close to call to go though, so that may very well yet happen… and likely will on at least one state.

This is the 2:15 UTC update, covering states called in the 15 minutes before that.

We finally have some states called from Weak and Lean categories.

First, Strong states called:

Rhode Island, Wisoconsin, Minnesota and New York for Obama
Wyoming for McCain

Minnesota also went for Obama though, and that was a “Weak Obama”.

Finally, two “Lean McCain” swing states are called for McCain.. Georgia and North Dakota.

With all these taken off the table, the range of possibilities narrows greatly:

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 274, Obama 264
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 393, McCain 145

The center line remains the same. No states have flipped to a candidate they were not leaning toward. But we are slowly taking those flip possibilities off the table.

McCain’s “SuperBest” case of winning is now holding on by a thread. This is almost over.

This is the 01:45 Update.

Both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire called for Obama.

Both of these states were “Strong Obama” states in the final polls, so neither of these is a surprise at all, and the summary yet again remains the same. It will stay exactly the same until they start calling “Weak” or “Lean” states.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127