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Based on a new update today on pollster.com (but of a month old poll) New Hampshire moves from “Weak Obama” to “Leaning Obama”, putting it into play for McCain. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260
Once again surprising because of the bad time Obama has been having lately, another state moves further in his direction. In my “last five polls average” New Jersey now moves from “Leaning Obama” to “Weak Obama” as his lead in that state goes over 5%. This takes New Jersey out of the “could go either way” category and removes the possibility of winning New Jersey from McCain’s best case scenario. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 330, Obama 208 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260 You see those two “best case” scenarios? Now, admittedly, I’m still allowing DC to go either way since there have not yet been any polls for DC, and that is not realistic, but still, at the moment this race is almost completely symmetrical. This is a completely tied race at the moment. Now, this is with McCain having a locked up nomination and a clear field, and the Democrats still locked in mortal battle, damaging each other further every day. So the dynamics of this will probably change significantly once the Democrats come together. But for now… tied ball game.
Surprisingly, given how the last few weeks have gone for Obama, today brings some good news for him on the Electoral College front vs McCain. If you just take where all the states (including “leaning” states) seem to be right now, he is still losing. But Massachusetts support seems to be strengthening as my “last five poll” average from that state pulls it from “leaning Obama” to “weak Obama”. Basically this means that McCain winning Massachusetts is no longer in the “McCain Best Case” scenario. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 345, Obama 193 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260
New poll in PA and my rolling average once again flips which side of the “leaning” fence it is on. This time PA goes from Leaning Obama back to Leaning McCain. PA is just a close state. If this keeps up, it could be the Florida of 2008. Anyway, Pennsylvania flipping changes the lead, and McCain is once again ahead if you give everybody their leaning states. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 357, Obama 181 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260 Have I mentioned this is still insanely close?
SurveyUSA released 15 new state by state polls today. Of those, 4 caused status changes in my rolling averages. In order of electoral votes:
The end result of all that is 27 more electoral votes are now in the “leaning” categories, meaning the number of states and electoral votes that really could very easily go either way is increased dramatically over yesterday. The range between McCain’s best case and Obama’s best case is widening again reversing a narrowing trend from the last few weeks. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 357, Obama 181 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 281, McCain 257
More bad state by state poll news for Obama. Colorado slips from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama” putting it in that “could really go either way” category. This improves McCain’s best case numbers. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 352, Obama 186 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 281, McCain 257 Notice how much better McCain’s best case is than Obama’s best case. Even though the “every body gets their leans” number is in Obama’s favor at the moment, the range of possible outcomes here gives many more ways for McCain to win than Obama has. If you were forced to pick a winner today based on current polls, it would almost certainly be McCain. Of course, we have many months to go, and a “bounce” is expected whenever the Democrats finally pick a nominee. But still…
After a string of good news for Obama, time for some good news for McCain. Massachusetts drops from a “Weak Obama” into a “Leaning Obama” state, basically meaning it is up for grabs, thus improving McCain’s best case scenario. Meanwhile, with some additional polls (older polls, but new to me) Texas moves from the leaning category into “Weak McCain”. This significantly lowers Obama’s “Best Case” prospects. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 343, Obama 195 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 281, McCain 257
What was I saying a few days ago about Obama’s streak of no good news on the Electoral college front? We had New Mexico flip on Saturday, and now… Obama may be hurting in the Democratic primary in PA, but the exposure seems to be improving how he stands in the general election matchup polls against McCain. With the latest polls, PA flips from barely leaning McCain, to barely leaning Obama. But PA is a big state with 21 electoral votes, and PA flipping sides is enough to change the lead in the “if everybody gets their lean states” total. So Obama takes the lead. In todays updates New Hampshire also strengthens for Obama going from a “Lean Obama” to a “Weak Obama” state. We’re now down to only 11 states and 132 electoral votes in the “lean” category… basically the states that could very easily go either way. Now, that is still a lot, but it is less than it used to be. (And of course, still no polls in DC, but..) Anyway, the summary numbers change: Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 331, Obama 207 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 281, McCain 257 Still anybody’s game though, as those 11 states could easily go either way. Plus I’m sure both candidates (when the time comes) will put resources into trying to pull away some of their opponents bigger “weak” states as well. And of course, there are many months to go, and lots will happen between now and November. But once the Democrats officially decide on a nominee (I’m betting June, but maybe August) expect a LOT of attention to be poured into those “lean” states. (Also of course, as I’ve said before, there is still a small chance Clinton will be the Democratic nominee rather than Obama. This still seems quite unlikely at this time, although it is certainly not impossible. If Clinton ever takes the delegate lead, I’ll redo all these charts for Clinton vs McCain… which from what I have seen so far is a very different race. The dynamics are dramatically different in many states.)
So just yesterday I talked about how there had been no good news for Obama in awhile in terms of these state by state contests. Well, of course as soon as I say such a thing, some good news comes in for Obama. However, it isn’t because of new information per se, but because I know know more about the past as it were. Pollster.com added a new New Mexico Chart which included a couple polls that I did not have yet, although they were not the most recent polls. They did however change my “last five polls” average. In this case New Mexico moved from “Leans McCain” all the way to “Weak Obama”. This changes several of the summary numbers. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 335, Obama 203 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260 Still extremely close. Even as we’ve had states slip out of the “leaning” category to go to one side or another, the range remains pretty well centered on the win line. Nice even unpredictable split.
Really more an Obama weakening than a McCain strengthening, but regardless the end result is that with the latest updates, Ohio moves from “Leans McCain” to “Weak McCain” as McCain’s lead in the state grows to over 5%. In terms of my summary, this makes Obama’s “best case” not quite as good as before, as Obama winning Ohio is no longer in the range of “quite possible” outcomes given current polling. The last “good news” Obama had in terms of this state by state polling was back on March 26th. Since then everything has been good for McCain. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 340, Obama 198 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 283, Obama 255 |
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