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@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-15 (UTC)

16:46:42 Election talk starts 10 minutes in -> [Blog Post] Curmudgeon's Corner: Keep Digging https://t.co/pW5iW8XM0z

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-14 (UTC)

06:26:30 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump drop continues (mostly) https://t.co/7UT0M0f9dl

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

19:30:51 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 19:30:22 A round of poll entry complete. All 50 states, DC, and ME congressional districts. Blog post over at @ElectionGraphs coming later.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-10 (UTC)

07:54:27 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 07:53:35 That’s all for now. New polls in FL/PA/WI/OH/AK. Notable change in AK, so @ElectionGraphs post a little later.
17:12:41 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Alaska in play? https://t.co/BuCGcM97El
17:35:45 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:15:47 @ElectionGraphs no https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf in reply to ElectionGraphs
17:37:33 .@gelliottmorris Like the site! You’re not including the latest ASR or Moore polls? (I understand not including Google. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
17:39:48 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:39:07 @ElectionGraphs forecast probably hasn't adjusted yet. It pulls everything from https://t.co/eGNNVkEVER, they have 2 update their end first in reply to ElectionGraphs
17:41:58 .@gelliottmorris Trump is still clearly a favorite in AK, but the post debate polls show him a lot weaker. Your odds will shift with those. in reply to gelliottmorris
17:43:28 .@gelliottmorris That is tenuous though, so it may not last. Only two non-Google post 1st debate polls so far. AK not heavily polled. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:30:10 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 20:50:26 @ElectionGraphs just seeing this. Your forecast will bounce back once you get a non-google poll. Alaska is redder than lean Trump/ swing in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:33:29 .@gelliottmorris As mentioned in post, lots of caveats. No surprise if T lead >5% again soon. But post-debate polls show closer than before. in reply to gelliottmorris
21:36:15 .@gelliottmorris I see I have one new AK poll in queue to add tonight. It will bump my AK avg from 4.2% to 4.8%. Still under 5%, but barely. in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:37:26 .@gelliottmorris That is CVoter though which I know you exclude along w/Google. I try to include everything, but the outliers drive me nuts! in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:40:49 .@gelliottmorris Right now w/o Google I’d be at T+9.1%. With new CVoter but no Google, would be at T+9.8% With no CVoter OR Google, T+6.6%. in reply to gelliottmorris
21:41:16 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:38:09 @ElectionGraphs Yeah, -Cvoter & Google I’m at Trump +6. 93% win chance https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf https://t.co/0mx6lijo3y in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:42:59 .@gelliottmorris With no Google, no CVoter, but only post 1st debate polls though, T+3.8%. in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:43:21 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:40 @ElectionGraphs Are you connecting to a database online? which one? in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:44:46 .@gelliottmorris All manual data entry. :-) You can get my raw data in machine readable form here though: https://t.co/IssmhtsJVx in reply to gelliottmorris
21:47:04 .@gelliottmorris Iviews with me and two other вЂњindependentвЂќ trackers about methods on my podcast fr a few weeks ago: https://t.co/y7BmKWb9qU in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:47:39 .@gelliottmorris I didn’t know about your site then, or I would have invited you too. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:48:28 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:48:04 @ElectionGraphs I’d be happy to join you next time! I’ll take a listen in my spare time in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:48:46 .@gelliottmorris Thanks! Enjoy the next 29 days! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
21:50:00 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:49:43 @ElectionGraphs Thanks! Just for you, I’m going to re-run my forecast w/ CVoter polls to see the impact. Last time the outliers rlly skewed in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:51:02 .@gelliottmorris It will be interesting. But in my opinion Google has the biggest outlier problem! It pains me every time I add them! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
21:52:02 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:51:28 @ElectionGraphs My advice: stop adding them! GIGO in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:53:50 .@gelliottmorris Part of site’s philosophy is include just about everything. Asking 4 trouble to change criteria mid-stream. Maybe 2020. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
22:03:03 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:53:42 CVoter shifted probabilities by following:
AK 4%
AZ 13
VA 14
etc, etc
Not even going to go through w/ full model update. waste of my time
22:03:06 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 22:02:19 @ElectionGraphs meant to tweet this to you, whoops in reply to gelliottmorris
22:11:08 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:34:14 @ElectionGraphs Gotcha. Im on board with race-tightening rhetoric re: republican states in reply to ElectionGraphs
22:11:09 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:37:04 @ElectionGraphs Take out Google and you’re at what, 7? in reply to ElectionGraphs
22:11:18 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:24 @ElectionGraphs Alright. Like I said, for Alaska I only have three polls al they’re at least a month old. Really neвЂ¦ https://t.co/bQacbIZhNE in reply to ElectionGraphs

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-09 (UTC)

09:00:15 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 08:59:54 Round of polls complete. New data: WI/FL/OH/IN/NH/IA/VA/CO/AK/WA/MI/AZ/TN/MD/MA/OR/IL. Notable changes in MI/AZ. @ElectionGraphs post later.
18:35:17 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump Path to Victory Evaporates https://t.co/Dl5Z1ackzB

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-08 (UTC)

05:20:28 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 05:19:42 Big round of poll updates finally done. Polls added for all 50 states and DC. Lots of notable changes. @ElectionGraphs blog post later.
08:06:37 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump's Polling Meltdown https://t.co/Lp8yW8f58T
23:14:20 Election talk starts 22 minutes in -> Curmudgeon's Corner: Topping the First One https://t.co/ftlTlWy0U3

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-02 (UTC)

03:51:38 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Some post-debate Clinton gains https://t.co/jdMo2TrhDb

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-01 (UTC)

18:48:18 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 18:47:45 Another round of data entry done. Polls added in NJ/FL/NV/MI/NH/CA/MA. Notable change in MI and Tipping Point. @ElectionGraphs post later.
19:39:48 Election talk starts about 10 minutes in -> Curmudgeon's Corner: Go Suck It! https://t.co/gepOmdD15o

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-09-30 (UTC)

02:42:03 Retweeted @entpnerd 02:33:21 @ElectionGraphs Been seeing large ups and downs in graph for Trump vs. Clinton in 2 days, starting well before the debates. What's going on?
02:43:51 .@entpnerd Florida, Ohio, North Carolina all very close. Single polls can move them across center line & cause big electoral college moves. in reply to entpnerd
02:45:45 .@entpnerd There were good polls for C that moved them toward her with midpoints around the 18th-20th. Good ones for T right before debate. in reply to ElectionGraphs
02:47:43 .@entpnerd Actual % moves not that large, but since those 3 states crossed zero, big EC moves. Look at Tipping pt chart 4 more stable trend. in reply to ElectionGraphs
02:51:37 .@entpnerd As long as there are states with large num of EV right near center line, small moves in state avg will cause big EC moves. in reply to ElectionGraphs
02:55:38 .@entpnerd As of right now (I’m still in midst of a round of poll updating) there are states w/ 153 EV under 5% margin. 95 EV under 2% marg. in reply to ElectionGraphs
03:01:39 Retweeted @cody_k 03:01:07 @ElectionGraphs Same thing at RCP with volatility. Big EV states back and forth… crossing sides.
https://t.co/ISpHnYIPgA

@entpnerd in reply to ElectionGraphs
06:44:50 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 06:44:33 Done with another round of poll updates. 50 states + DC. Notable changes in KS/NM/MO/ME-All and tipping pt. @ElectionGraphs blog post later.
16:39:19 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Poll Churn (mostly pre-debate) https://t.co/ry1Rgk5s2v
22:00:13 Retweeted @entpnerd 05:33:56 @ElectionGraphs & @cody_k Thanks for the great explanations. Much appreciated. :-)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-09-26 (UTC)

01:23:52 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 01:23:31 That’s all for this round. Polls added in 50 states, DC, and ME CDs. Notable changes in KS/NH/NM/ME-CD2, so @ElectionGraphs post soon.
16:21:32 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Has Trump Peaked? https://t.co/33lhJIJKA9

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@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-15 (UTC)

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