Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Lines represent how many more electoral votes a candidate has than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. This chart reflects Obama vs Romney. If any other candidate takes the lead in the Republican delegate race we’ll switch to making charts for them.
This is a big one today. Obama’s 5 poll average in Pennsylvania is now more than a 5% lead. This means I take Pennsylvania out of swing state status. It is no longer “too close to call”, it is blue. This reduces Romney’s best case (win all the swing states scenario) to only a 291 to 241 win. It is still a win, but his best case is now a vey narrow win, only 22 electoral votes past the 269 needed to tie. That turns Florida into a “Must Win”, as without winning Florida, there is no longer a way to get to 269. (At least without reaching past the swing states and pulling back states where Obama is even further ahead.)
New summary:
| Romney | Obama | |
|---|---|---|
| Romney Best Case | 291 | 247 |
| Current Status | 210 | 328 |
| Obama Best Case | 170 | 368 |
And new map…
Map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.
From ML via Facebook:
After this year’s GOP primary, I think we should be very reluctant to make any claims about what the voting November will be like. Social media has made elections less predictable. [I admit I am committed to philosophical beliefs that imply this conclusion, but it still looks empirically that I am right.]
18 minutes ago
From SM via Facebook:
As I say on my contradictorily named 2012 Electoral College Prediction page ( http://wiki.abulsme.com/2012_Electoral_College_Prediction ): None of this represents an actual prediction for the results in November. (At least not until we get close to November.) This represents the state of things NOW, as imperfectly determined by polling. Between January and November, quite a lot will happen, and the states will ebb and flow between categories as events unfold. This is why these charts show changes over time rather than just the snapshot of “now”. The goal is to show how the situation changes over the 10 months (and a few days) of the 2012 campaign season.
a few seconds ago
From SM via Facebook:
As for the GOP primary season, there has been a lot of noise and up and downs in the polls, but so far in terms of the actual delegate race, nobody has come close to touching Romney. Now, there is still some room for that to change, but the window is narrowing, and will probably close after Super Tuesday unless one of the non-Romney’s does a major breakout on that day. (See http://wiki.abulsme.com/2012_Republican_Delegate_Count_Graphs and http://www.abulsme.com/2012/02/25/gaming-out-arizona-and-michigan/ and http://www.abulsme.com/2012/02/22/comparing-2008-and-2012-again-now-with-graphs/ for my recent stuff on that topic. :-) )
a few seconds ago