Electoral College: Missouri flips back to Obama

I have logged 15 polls since my last daily update but I just logged the first one that moved any state to a new category. A new Rasmussen poll moves the five poll average in Missouri (11 ev) back to the Obama side of the fence. The same caveat as usual, either way the state is too close to call. We’ll see when the actual results start coming in.

But for now, a new status update.

In order to show any sort of McCain win scenario, I’ve added a “SuperBest” scenario, where a candidate gets not only all of their strong and weak states, and all of the swing states, but also all of their opponent’s weak states. McCain can still win if he manages that. :-)

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 300, Obama 238
McCain Best Case: Obama 278, McCain 260

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

(Note: For election day only, I’m logging polls as soon as I find them anywhere, even if they have not yet been logged at pollster.com.)