- 17:17:48 A few quick notes on the leaked Trump internal polls of Biden vs. Trump. [1/8]
- 17:18:10 1st: I am going to include them. Some aggregators automatically exclude them because of potential selective release bias, etc. I default to including as much as possible. So I’ll be adding them shortly. [2/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:18:25 2nd: I’m going with ABC on the field dates, not NBC. ABC reports March 15th to March 28th which is exactly two weeks. NBC reports March 13th to March 28th which includes two extra days. These almost certainly are the same batch of polls though. [3/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:19:47 3rd: ABC and NBC differ slightly on their reports of the results in PA, WI, and FL. In these cases I will include both, but weighted as half polls, just as I do when a pollster reports results in multiple ways (with & without 3rd parties, registered vs likely voters, etc.) [4/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:20:52 4th: For some states this leak only includes margins. Election Graphs only uses margin in calculations, but it displays & reports candidate results too. For the states where we only have leaked margins I will log the polls such that Trump-Biden=Margin and Trump+Biden=100%. [5/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:21:19 5th: If a range of possible margins is reported rather than a specific margin, I will log these as the center of that range. [6/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:21:32 6th: If more detailed leaks become available, I will adjust how these polls are recorded to reflect any new information. [7/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:21:56 OK, now time to add these poll results… [8/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
- 17:26:50 Poll Added: Trump Internal (ABC) [2] in PA from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 55.0% to Trump 39.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/kdXcPoL3RW
- 17:29:10 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) [2] in PA from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 55.8% to Trump 44.3% #Election2020 https://t.co/dyFLlH81om
- 17:31:56 Poll Added: Trump Internal (ABC) [2] in WI from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 51.0% to Trump 41.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/NBJqwM3iOA
- 17:35:10 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) [2] in WI from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 55.8% to Trump 44.3% #Election2020 https://t.co/Q1SyGfN9dD
- 17:41:08 Poll Added: Trump Internal (ABC) [2] in FL from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 53.5% to Trump 46.5% #Election2020 https://t.co/Owd9gmnExV
- 17:41:08 Biden vs. Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Biden #Election2020 https://t.co/Owd9gmnExV
- 17:43:50 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) [2] in FL from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 55.8% to Trump 44.3% #Election2020 https://t.co/0XQCFvFkKv
- 17:45:08 Biden vs. Trump tipping point change: Biden by 0.5% in NC -> Biden by 1% in FL #Election2020 https://t.co/KRacBGXvHZ
- 17:45:09 Biden vs. Trump expected case change: Biden 299 to Trump 239 -> Biden 328 to Trump 210 #Election2020 https://t.co/KRacBGXvHZ
- 17:51:34 Poll Added: Trump Internal (ABC) [2] in TX from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 49.0% to Trump 51.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/DHRxjuSQO3
- 17:53:11 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) [2] in TX from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 49.0% to Trump 51.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/tQ6RBWDAPB
- 17:56:38 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in VA from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 55.0% to Trump 38.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/8RhuSA0HEq
- 17:56:39 Biden vs. Trump state category change: VA has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Biden #Election2020 https://t.co/8RhuSA0HEq
- 18:00:09 Biden vs. Trump tipping point change: Biden by 1% in FL -> Biden by 3.4% in ME-CD2 #Election2020 https://t.co/qVfIlhMIyb
- 18:00:09 Biden vs. Trump expected case change: Biden 328 to Trump 210 -> Biden 341 to Trump 197 #Election2020 https://t.co/qVfIlhMIyb
- 18:06:58 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in ME-All from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 53.0% to Trump 38.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/yWXttMhO2W
- 18:06:59 Biden vs. Trump state category change: ME-All has moved from Strong Biden to Solid Biden #Election2020 https://t.co/yWXttMhO2W
- 18:08:44 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in MN from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 54.0% to Trump 40.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/g8L2EBX2NE
- 18:10:21 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in MI from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 53.0% to Trump 40.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/RbBnmQRjl8
- 18:12:11 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in NC from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 51.0% to Trump 43.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/gGJEt2Mrnf
- 18:27:44 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in OH from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 46.0% to Trump 45.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/ijM98g5DMh
- 18:28:02 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in IA from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 52.0% to Trump 45.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/WG22dPEu7O
- 18:28:12 Poll Added: Trump Internal (NBC) in GA from 2019-03-15 to 2019-03-28 – Biden 53.0% to Trump 47.0% #Election2020 https://t.co/aPpeJiQJ6Z
- 18:35:00 OK, that is it for the leaked Trump internal polls. There were category changes that resulted, so I’ll be doing a blog post soon to talk about them over at @ElectionGraphs.
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