- 00:04:03 KY/IN/VT called. All as expected. No surprises.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 00:30:08 NC/OH/WV closed. (Although some precincts still voting in NC.) WV should be a quick call. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 00:32:18 WV called for Trump as expected.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 00:59:59 Lots and lots of states just closed. The only ones to pay attention to are MI/ME-CD2/PA/FL. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:07:00 DC/MA/MD/RI/IL/NJ/DE/TN/MS/OK called instantly. No surprises.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 01:14:31 Added a couple of notes on some states we are waiting on: https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:25:45 Watching Florida go back and forth is causing flashbacks of 2000. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:30:39 AR just closed. Expect it to get called for Trump immediately. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:33:35 SC/AL both called for Trump. No surprises.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 01:34:31 CNN mentioned Clinton leading TX with more than 50% counted. Now THAT would be a surprise. Won’t last though. Right? https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:34:41 Retweeted @jennsteele 01:33:48 @ElectionGraphs I know; and it's not making me drink wine any more slowly! in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 01:44:32 Some notes on which states we are waiting for: https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 01:45:20 Retweeted @rebeccagberg 01:21:04 Just gonna leave this here: the threshold for an automatic recount in Florida is a margin <0.5 percent https://t.co/vuBbONGsyz
- 01:57:02 Retweeted @shelleyaw123 01:56:48 @ElectionGraphs it might (fingers crossed)!! in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 01:57:16 .@shelleyaw123 Trump’s already taken the lead there, as expected. in reply to shelleyaw123
- 02:00:08 Bunch of states just closed. The only one to really watch is Arizona. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 02:05:45 Called: NY 4 C, KS/NE-All/SD/ND/WY/NE-CD3 4 T. No surprises.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 02:16:02 TX/AR both called for Trump as expected. Still no surprises.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210 - 02:29:09 VA still being close may be bad news for Clinton. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 02:30:43 Maybe those last minute poll shifts I was dubious about were real. Certainly looking that way in Florida and North Carolina at the moment.
- 02:47:32 CT/LA called as expected. Still no surprises, but the way uncalled states are going is making Clinton very nervous. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 02:48:26 Retweeted @benchmarkpol 02:48:15 Clinton is now ahead on the Virginia secretary of state site. https://t.co/QKjjOpbRTc https://t.co/ft18TdoV2D
- 03:00:52 Nevada, Iowa, Montana, and Utah now closed. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:04:27 MT as expected. Still no close states called, so summary hasn’t changed. Range from T+66 to C+210. C+8 expected. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:04:58 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 02:28:28 Clinton, in my view, is in serious danger in Wisconsin and Michigan. Not very clear what's going on in PA.
- 03:08:41 Retweeted @williamjordann 03:06:28 Live NYT forecast shows a electoral college/popular vote split https://t.co/SpX5Z4DUh4
- 03:11:23 Networks called the Republicans keeping the House awhile ago BTW. Expected. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:17:04 MO called for Trump, NM for Clinton, both as expected. Still no surprises or close states called. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:18:41 Retweeted @Timcast 03:18:02 NOW: NYT Has #Trump chance to win at 79% https://t.co/gsfo193kFw
- 03:21:33 Looks like the possibility that Trump will pull off the biggest comeback in US presidential history is very real. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:29:01 First close state called. OH goes Trump as expected. New stats:
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+174 - 03:41:39 Retweeted @jackmooring 03:40:40 RCP average had #Trump at +3.5 in Ohio. He won it by 11.
- 03:52:08 CO to Clinton as expected. Still no states going other than expected. But Trump leading lots of uncalled states. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 03:58:22 Retweeted @CarlBialik 03:57:52 Clinton has a 6% chance of winning election, per @nytimes—a higher chance than Democrats have of controlling Senate https://t.co/mhh1jPwDce
- 03:59:58 CA/WA/OR/ID now closed. None expected to be close. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 04:04:34 CA & HI called for Clinton. Expected. Still no surprise states.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+174 - 04:11:08 NC goes to Trump. Expected but reduces Clinton’s best case.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+144 - 04:21:14 OR/NE-CD1 both as expected. Everything still as expected. But Clinton can’t afford to lose a single state she led. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 04:22:27 And she is currently behind in several. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 04:32:59 Clinton can afford to lose Maine CD2. She has to sweep everything else or she is done. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 04:33:11 Retweeted @BYUfan 04:31:51 @ElectionGraphs @realDonaldTrump just won WI. Now he just needs to win the states you have him ahead in.
- 04:33:40 .@BYUfan @realDonaldTrump Who called WI? I think that is game over unless she wins one of his, which is unlikely. in reply to BYUfan
- 04:37:53 Retweeted @BYUfan 04:35:08 @ElectionGraphs @realDonaldTrump Fox News just called WI for Trump. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 04:38:59 FL for Trump. Expected.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+86 - 04:40:11 Fox is calling WI for Trump. If so, we’re done. Trump wins, we’re only talking about margin. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4 in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 04:42:57 Washington for Clinton. Expected.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+86 - 04:51:06 GA to Trump. Expected. But reduces Clinton’s best case further.
Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+54 - 04:53:59 McMullin very close to 2nd place in Utah. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 04:54:12 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 04:50:01 We believe Clinton is very likely to win the national popular vote. https://t.co/qnVxlxqA8r
- 05:00:04 269 to 269 is not out of the question. Which shows it to the house, and probably to Trump. But maybe shenanigans. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 05:07:48 Retweeted @jaxparrothead 05:07:27 @ElectionGraphs 2 Hillary electors have said they won't vote for her, she loses in a tie in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 05:08:04 .@jaxparrothead There may end up being faithless Republican electors too. in reply to jaxparrothead
- 05:10:03 Retweeted @jaxparrothead 05:09:53 @ElectionGraphs one said he's a Hillary elector from WA in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 05:10:43 .@jaxparrothead I know the two WA electors. I mean there may be R elector defectors from other states too. We could have many. Who knows? in reply to jaxparrothead
- 05:11:41 IA to Trump. Expected. Still all expected. But Clinton losing uncalled states. Her best case shrinking fast. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 05:29:17 Retweeted @jaxparrothead 05:14:33 @ElectionGraphs oh I see, good point in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 05:31:20 Retweeted @MEPFuller 05:30:43 Here's Clinton's only hope. And there's no reason to believe she wins ME-02 or NE-02. Trump has won, folks. https://t.co/3kyEKwSpHK
- 05:40:09 First surprise. NV to Clinton. Probably not enough.
Trump best: T+54
Expected: C+20
Clinton best: C+42 - 05:42:57 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 05:42:08 Trump currently up 52-41 in ME-02 with 70% reporting, which would give Trump 270 electoral votes and make him president.
- 05:43:05 Retweeted @benchmarkpol 05:42:18 It does not appear Jill Stein or Gary Johnson will reach the 5% threshold.
- 05:46:11 Retweeted @ericgeller 05:45:36 Clinton's must-win states right now.
PA: Trump 48.5 Clinton 47.9 (97%)
MI: Trump 47.9 Clinton 47.0 (79%)
WI: Trump 49.1 Clinton 45.7 (90%) - 05:46:19 Retweeted @MargieOmero 05:45:31 Trump did better with Latinos (29%) than Romney did (27%). #ElectionNight
- 05:48:58 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 05:47:01 .@SeanTrende had Clinton +3.2% nationally, the second for major aggregators. My 10-day average had Clinton +3.1%
Massive poll error.
- 06:07:52 CNN still not calling states that others have, but Trump clearly won. I’ll track until all states called of course. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 06:11:42 Utah called for Trump. Expected. No change to summary.
Trump best: T+54
Expected: C+20
Clinton best: C+42 - 06:44:30 AK called for Trump. Expected.
Trump best: T+54
Expected: C+20
Clinton best: C+42 - 07:22:11 Status on the states we are still waiting for (using CNN calls): https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 07:36:47 Wisconsin called for Trump. The 2nd “surprise” of the night. And a big one. Details: https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 07:40:14 AP called the race. Still waiting on CNN. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 07:41:23 Clinton called Trump to concede. We’ll keep tracking until all states are called. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 08:05:22 PA was called for Trump by CNN to push him over the top: https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 08:18:40 Looks like McMullin is coming in 3rd in Utah. No longer in danger of 2nd place. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 09:22:45 Retweeted @entpnerd 09:22:15 @ElectionGraphs Would love a podcast on what went wrong with polls in so many states. But, kudos on being closer than @FiveThirtyEight.
- 09:23:48 .@entpnerd @FiveThirtyEight I’m sure we will discuss this some on our next Curmudgeon’s Corner. And thanks! https://t.co/G1rc9wIo0a in reply to entpnerd
- 11:32:50 Not that it matters in our system, but Clinton just overtook Trump in the national popular vote. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 11:34:13 Also, I’ve been updating for well over 12 hours straight, so time for a break. Updates on the last states later. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 19:20:34 A morning update. No more states called by CNN since last night: https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
- 20:14:10 CNN called Minnesota for Clinton and Nebraska CD2 for Trump. Both as expected. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
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