- 00:20:59 Retweeted @hardsci 2016-11-05 22:12:52 50 states. Candidate X has a 40% chance in each single state. State outcomes are correlated 0.0. Candidate X wins e… https://t.co/DGbCO52adC
- 00:21:03 Retweeted @hardsci 2016-11-05 22:14:40 50 states. Candidate X has a 40% chance in each single state. State outcomes are correlated 0.1. Now cand. X wins e… https://t.co/DJh2NrT34L in reply to hardsci
- 01:07:07 Retweeted @piersmorgan 01:06:50 BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump rushed off stage by Secret Service in Reno after 'incident'. https://t.co/pxNgtWxO0x
- 01:07:30 Retweeted @ditzkoff 01:05:44 Trump is rushed off stage by security at event in Reno. https://t.co/BJZm5Z8DfN
- 01:10:50 Retweeted @hollybdc 01:10:32 Trump thanks Secret Service and gets right back to stump speech.
- 01:16:39 Retweeted @jdelreal 01:12:09 Massive disruption here in Reno. Armed officers jumped in. People on the floor said — & this is unconfirmed — that… https://t.co/KEcHXgeJyo
- 01:18:13 Retweeted @RosieGray 01:17:59 Heavily armed police standing outside a bathroom at venue where incident just happened at Trump rally https://t.co/4L1kzUeKtn
- 01:20:20 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 01:20:07 Unconfirmed report by the pooler: Several people said they saw a man pull a gun at Trump rally. Awaiting comment from USSS
- 01:26:00 Retweeted @JDiamond1 01:25:00 Got footage of man who was detained by police and Secret Service after @realDonaldTrump was rushed off stage by USS… https://t.co/81VgKYCUBD
- 01:27:38 Retweeted @smahaskey 01:25:01 Man taken off rally floor under heavy police escort amid chaotic scene at @realDonaldTrump event in Reno. https://t.co/eAyvkbrU8y
- 01:29:48 This whole thing with Trump being rushed off may be a false alarm. Guy may be innocent. Or not. But those were some dramatic pictures.
- 01:31:26 That they let him back on stage so quickly indicates to me they didn’t think there was actually a significant threat after initial scare.
- 01:45:08 Retweeted @JTSantucci 01:40:16 Senior sources tell @ABC the threat escalated when someone shouted gun at Trump rally. Source with direct knowledge says no weapon found
- 02:05:24 Retweeted @hominidviews 02:02:44 New analysis of Senate polls suggest Republicans would control the Senate from an election held today.… https://t.co/J1op6v4kXk
- 02:05:45 Retweeted @hominidviews 02:05:36 The probability distribution for number of Senate seats held based on Monte Carlo analysis of state polls.… https://t.co/zQ6lroYZFF
- 02:48:40 Retweeted @BenMargiott 02:26:23 The man detained by Secret Service after Trump was rushed off the stage has been released
- 02:48:48 Retweeted @BenMargiott 02:44:31 CORRECTION: The man who was detained was holding a Republicans AGAINST trump sign. I apologize for the mistake.
- 02:50:52 Retweeted @SteveKopack 02:48:14 NEW: US Secret Service statement on incident at Trump event earlier tonight https://t.co/dOMow2tA32
- 02:51:11 Retweeted @leahmcelrath 02:48:44 So…he was a Republican?
Against Trump.
So Trump supporters worked themselves into a froth, someone cried "gun",… https://t.co/7AAybdgxsU
- 06:13:28 Retweeted @Taniel 05:39:51 What is this nightmare? *2nd* WA Dem elector says he may not vote HRC. If both withhold, she'd need to have won 272… https://t.co/eVLtAxmKy0
- 06:26:12 People upset about faithless electors. But the election in Nov is just to select electors. The electors are free agents. That is our system.
- 06:27:12 Faithless electors laws impotent & probably unconstitutional anyway. Constitution clearly expected electors to make independent decisions. in reply to abulsme
- 06:28:39 Traditions to the contrary developed later, but are just traditions. Electors still free agents. Can vote for whoever they want. in reply to abulsme
- 06:31:12 Personally I've advocated choosing electors by lottery & always expecting them 2 make independent judgements. I know I am alone on that. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 08:55:55 Retweeted @hominidviews 08:06:34 .@abulsme Not true! In WA, they file a statement with SOS promising to be faithful, subject to Civil penalty for faithless vote. in reply to abulsme
- 08:55:58 Retweeted @hominidviews 08:07:24 .@abulsme Did you mean, traditions _and laws_??? in reply to abulsme
- 08:56:52 .@hominidviews A small civil penalty, applicable only after they vote. Absolutely nothing that stops the vote. in reply to hominidviews
- 08:58:57 .@hominidviews Nope. I meant traditions. None of the laws binding electors have teeth, and might or might not survive court challenge. in reply to hominidviews
- 09:00:03 .@hominidviews The only laws that are applicable are the ones governing how states pick the electors. Once picked, they are free agents. in reply to abulsme
- 09:02:21 .@hominidviews "As they should be" I will add. The EC is 1 of the important things the founders put in place to avoid direct democracy. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 09:03:32 .@hominidviews I do enjoy being contrarian on that point of course. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 09:05:00 .@hominidviews Key is though, even if faithless electors laws had severe penalties, they can't prevent or change the vote once made. in reply to abulsme
- 09:06:32 .@hominidviews The constitution says it is the electors who choose the president. It is THEIR CHOICE. Nobody else's. in reply to abulsme
- 09:07:40 .@hominidviews The states pick the electors (however they see fit, with few restrictions), the electors choose the president. in reply to abulsme
- 09:08:22 .@hominidviews That can't be changed without a constitutional amendment. in reply to abulsme
- 09:09:39 .@hominidviews Now, the state laws on picking electors can include provisions to replace them if they don't promise to vote a certain way. in reply to abulsme
- 09:10:35 .@hominidviews So loudmouth faithless electors like these could be replaced before they vote in December potentially if state law allows. in reply to abulsme
- 09:12:21 .@hominidviews But if they were smart, kept their mouths shut, and just voted how they wanted to in December… in reply to abulsme
- 09:13:41 .@hominidviews …then it is too late. Put whatever penalty you want on the elector, their vote is done, can't be changed, and counts. in reply to abulsme
- 09:17:16 .@hominidviews So they really are free agents as far as the constitution is concerned, regardless of any state laws trying to bind them. in reply to abulsme
- 09:19:13 .@hominidviews Which is why I was SHOCKED when I attended the WA Dem State convention at how careless the process of selecting electors was. in reply to abulsme
- 09:20:16 .@hominidviews Many of those running specifically PROMISED in their 30 second speeches to be faithless electors. in reply to abulsme
- 09:20:49 .@hominidviews Many others who were running clearly did not even know what an elector was or what the duties were. in reply to abulsme
- 09:21:43 .@hominidviews And it was clear that the vast majority of the delegates voting to choose the electors also had no idea what electors did. in reply to abulsme
- 09:22:57 .@hominidviews Since WA is slam dunk blue, they were picking 12 of the only 538 people who ACTUALLY vote for President in this country. in reply to abulsme
- 09:23:52 .@hominidviews People who actually have the power to change their minds and vote for WHOEVER THEY WANT if they decide to do so. in reply to abulsme
- 09:27:05 .@hominidviews People who if something catastrophic happened between Nov and Dec might actually have good reason to choose someone else. in reply to abulsme
- 09:28:24 .@hominidviews These people are usually rubber stamps of course, but they ACTUALLY wield huge power if they ever chose to do so. in reply to abulsme
- 09:29:29 .@hominidviews The process of choosing electors should be an extremely careful process. What I saw in Tacoma was anything but. in reply to abulsme
- 09:32:56 .@hominidviews Basically a cattle call of dozens of people who wanted to be electors, 30 second speeches, then vote for your favorites. in reply to abulsme
- 09:33:49 .@hominidviews It was a mess. People didn’t know what they were voting for, or who they were voting for. Crazy for such an important office. in reply to abulsme
- 09:37:48 .@hominidviews Only 2/12 electors were selected at the state convention I saw, the others selected earlier at the County conventions. in reply to abulsme
- 09:38:39 .@hominidviews But I gather the process was similar. Previously I had assumed the state parties very carefully selected these folks. Nope. in reply to abulsme
- 09:44:00 .@hominidviews My archive of my live tweets on that day of the convention here: https://t.co/TIoahC3Wbs and https://t.co/17oJr5cBn8 in reply to abulsme
- 09:44:21 .@hominidviews I was just gobsmacked at how cavalier the process was for choosing people for this critically important role. Gobsmacked! in reply to abulsme
- 09:46:19 .@hominidviews I mean seriously, you are picking the actual people who pick the president. That should b somewhat important you would think. in reply to abulsme
- 11:05:21 Retweeted @hominidviews 2016-11-05 18:26:11 Monte Carlo analysis of WA Gubernatorial race suggests that Gov. Jay Inslee will very likely defeat Bill Bryant.… https://t.co/5nGyObqkh1
- 11:16:34 Retweeted @hominidviews 2016-11-05 02:34:27 Here is the probability distribution of election outcomes from 100K sims. Most likely result: HRC 286 w/2.93% prob.… https://t.co/oSYnxgArji
- 11:31:32 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 11:31:21 Another round of poll updates complete. All 50 states and DC. Blog post on @ElectionGraphs soon.
- 12:43:14 Retweeted @davidaxelrod 12:42:59 Old @realDonaldTrump: turbulent Tweets & volatile interviews. New Trump: scripts & prompters. This, as much as anything, has tightened race.
- 13:17:26 Retweeted @JustinWolfers 2016-11-05 14:20:28 Of course there will be polling errors. But who is likely to outperform their polls—the candidate with an organization, or the one without?
- 13:33:04 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump Surge Sputtering Out? https://t.co/wstC2Wtze1
- 17:30:11 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:09:32 @abulsme It is crazy! Clearly the Dems had a lack of due diligence, since a HRC nomination was NOT a surprise by then. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:13 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:10:35 @abulsme !?! in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:15 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:10:52 @abulsme bizarre! in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:18 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:13:14 @abulsme Sure…but lots of things fall under state instead of federal jurisdiction. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:20 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:17:12 @abulsme Right…which is why voters should threaten civil suits against faithless elector to create a strong incentive for faithful vote. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:23 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:19:14 @abulsme The laws CAN have teeth, in sense that SCOTUS has been on board with laws requiring faithful vote. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:26 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:20:49 @abulsme They are still bound to their state laws for electors, and a written contract they made with the state (in WA). in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:29 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:22:23 @abulsme Of course! That is not the issue. My point is that states (and the people via lawsuits) can make pain of faithlessness severe. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:32 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:24:35 @abulsme Probably not a remedy under current RCW, although breach of contract laws might provide a toehold. WADEMs should check into this. in reply to abulsme
- 17:30:34 Retweeted @hominidviews 16:25:33 @abulsme Right…but like all crimes, the penalty should deter lawlessness. in reply to abulsme
- 17:34:26 .@hominidviews The court has determined that pledges are OK, no ruling on penalties 4 breaking, or mechanisms to not count faithless votes. in reply to hominidviews
- 17:36:23 .@hominidviews In any case, I personally feel electors as independent agents is a feature, not a bug, and so oppose all efforts to prevent. in reply to abulsme
- 17:43:33 Reading – Trump Rolls Out Anti-Semitic Closing Ad (Josh Marshall) https://t.co/PQc4UpcboI
- 17:57:09 Reading – Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance (Haberman/Parker/Peters/Barbaro) https://t.co/fv57MXtDhU
- 19:20:04 Retweeted @RonBrownstein 19:18:51 Reduced to 1 question: can non-col whites elect Trump despite huge resistance by minorities & col+ wh women, underperformance w/col+ wh men?
- 19:28:55 Retweeted @SZilberstein 19:12:35 Lindsey Graham to @nytimes: "Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.”
- 19:31:45 Retweeted @fordm 18:10:37 In a last-ditch effort to give him command of our nuclear arsenal, Trump's staff wrested away his Twitter account https://t.co/nDhkka64pV
- 20:18:12 Retweeted @jasoninthehouse 20:15:36 FBI Dir just informed us "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Sec Clinton"
- 20:20:39 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 20:20:27 Whatever your views on Clintons' involvement, the FBI really looks like a damn joke right now
- 20:21:25 Retweeted @RepAdamSchiff 20:21:11 As expected, the review of the additional emails has not changed the FBI's original conclusion. https://t.co/iVMTWRLv4h
- 20:36:32 Retweeted @sahilkapur 20:35:56 Since Comey's letter on 10/28, @HillaryClinton's net unfavorable rating doubled from -7 to -14, per RCP average. https://t.co/rVCcheeOv1 in reply to sahilkapur
- 20:49:50 Retweeted @Redistrict 17:24:17 Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.
- 20:56:42 Watching – Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump Cold Open (SNL) https://t.co/F0fGT9OkJ5
- 20:57:47 Retweeted @Tom_Winter 20:57:21 NBC's Pete Williams reports that nearly all of the e-mails found on the Weiner laptop were duplicates of e-mails FBI already reviewed.
- 21:19:22 Retweeted @RyanLizza 21:18:11 -Clinton lead on day of Comey letter: 5.8 points
-Clinton lead today: 5.1 points
Not a game-changer. https://t.co/duzAH9mfGI
- 21:35:26 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 21:34:52 Pool: Obama met with a 12-year-old boy with a severe case of cerebral palsy who had been pushed out of a Trump rall… https://t.co/FQggmz3F07
- 22:45:25 Retweeted @dandrezner 22:42:20 Every Obama-Trump interaction in this campaign, explained at the 1:30 mark here: https://t.co/r207ytHOQl
- 22:49:53 Retweeted @dandrezner 22:36:49 Obama Mocks Trump For Getting His Twitter Confiscated https://t.co/n5MxcvFcwx
- 23:48:21 Retweeted @ArmsControlWonk 23:47:48 .@badnetworker Apparently this is a talking point among the morons. https://t.co/a8UrNC0NCy in reply to badnetworker
- 23:50:16 Retweeted @davidaxelrod 21:05:17 Ok, due to popular demand I an revising this Tweet. Now apparently NO ONE has a kind word for Comey! https://t.co/oTDUqqdZdm
- 23:51:59 Retweeted @sahilkapur 19:13:58 NYT reports that Steve Bannon's pants literally caught fire while working on a Trump speech. https://t.co/OgvUVZD8v4 https://t.co/gLmvrp6lMS in reply to sahilkapur
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