This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about Election 2016 of course. But first some bits about Mike the headless chicken, the comments on Sam’s Election Graphs site, stamp prices, Hey Siri, and a movie Sam watched. When they do get to the election they cover Trump’s shutout in Colorado, Trump’s general malpractice in delegate wrangling, the odds of a contested convention, the accusations of cheating in both parties, and much more!
Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Recorded 2016-04-14
Length this week – 1:20:15
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Show Details:
- (0:00:41-0:22:29) But First
- Ivan in his Car
- Mike the Headless Chicken
- Election Graphs Comments
- Stamp Prices
- Facebook Bots
- Hey Siri
- Movie: Mississippi Burning (1988)
- (0:23:08-1:00:14) Election 2016
- Trump shutout in Colorado
- Delegate wrangling malpractice
- Contested Convention Scenarios
- Ryan saying no… Again
- Odds of Trump getting majority
- Trump Trends
- Cruz wooing delegates
- (1:00:53-1:19:55) Election 2016 Continued
- Cheating? Stealing? Unfair? Rigged?
- Sanders “contesting” the convention
- Sanders attempts to woo superdelegates
- Edit wars on Wikipedia Superdelegate list
- Denial from Trump and Sanders people
- What Sanders and Trump didn’t do
- When is New York again?
- Thoughtful Trump people wanted
Hi Sam – you can settle a bet. How much of the popular vote does Trump have now and how much is he likely to have at the convention?
I don’t track popular vote since it is delegates that matter. Looking around I don’t have a projection for at the convention, but the current popular vote numbers are Trump 8.2M, Cruz 6.3M, Rubio 3.4M, Kasich 3.0M. Source is RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html
Just interested in the notion that the party could “steal” the nomination from Trump when a majority of Republicans voted against him.
That is just because the “norm” in US elections isn’t actually that you have to get over 50%, it is just that you have to have more votes than anybody else. People win with under 50% all of the time. So people will be annoyed to say the least. But the rules here don’t give it to the person who has the most in the popular vote, or even the one who has the most delegates. In fact, the way the rules are, there would be ways to deny Trump the nomination EVEN if he has more than 50% of the delegates pledged to him coming into the convention. (This is because it looks a very large number of the delegates pledged to Trump on the first ballot won’t actually be Trump supporters, so they could potentially do a variety of things prior to that first vote to either make sure Trump’s name is not put into nomination at all by not supporting him in the written pledge that determines who can be nominated at all, or to just change the rules to unbind themselves before the first ballot, etc.) Fun stuff!