Abulsme.com: June 2019

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2019-06-08 (UTC)

20:09:05 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 20:08:30 Biden makes NC blue, mixed changes in MI, and what about TX?
https://t.co/P0coh8GhrG
#Election2020 https://t.co/C5WhqjA5Dl
20:24:29 Poll Added: Spry in NC from 2019-05-25 to 2019-06-01 – Biden 41.096% to Trump 51.781% #Election2020 https://t.co/FlidPwVBQK
20:25:07 Biden vs. Trump tipping point change: Biden by 1.9% in NC -> Biden by 0.5% in NC #Election2020 https://t.co/Z8sSbEaEn0

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-07 (UTC)

05:19:21 Retweeted @DonutOperator 2019-06-06 16:47:47 Wow. https://t.co/NUqG4yFrFT
05:50:53 Retweeted @Edsall 2019-06-06 21:43:42 Another bombshell from the secret files of the GOP’s gerrymandering guru. https://t.co/FOG6JOSRci via @slate
14:28:20 Retweeted @christopherhope 14:17:02 BREAKING Theresa May has formally resigned as Conservative party leader triggering start of race to succeed her.
Letters have been exchanged between Mrs May and the co-vice chairmen of the party’s 1922 committee. Full details at the Telegraph’s live blog: https://t.co/HMRqpMhbmH
16:02:21 Retweeted @ThePlumLineGS 15:00:46 Everyone is mocking Hannity for claiming that wanting to lock up political opponents is “banana republic” stuff.But this is a *feature* of this kind of Trumpian disinformation.
The unabashed nature of the lying is the whole point of it.

My new piece:
https://t.co/Hlmuu4YGpz
16:06:21 Retweeted @KatyTurNBC 16:01:22 Our baby boy got his first Spider-Man bandaid yesterday along with his first round of shots. Get vaccinated, folks. It works. cc @tonydokoupil https://t.co/lMRjIFDjDa
17:55:56 Thread https://t.co/7VKXeYWlTN
18:09:54 Retweeted @ZackBornstein 18:06:53 When the Moon is a part of Mars like a big pizza pie that’s amore https://t.co/HTjTe3mvIm
20:03:16 Liked on YouTube: The History of France: Every Year https://t.co/sdZNdoH6TV
21:49:20 Retweeted @TorEkelandPLLC 21:31:58 How many Democrats does it take to change a lightbulb?Zero. They’re hoping the courts will do it for them.
23:26:22 Retweeted @NatashaBertrand 21:46:44 Scoop: Former aide to Roger Stone has turned over to a grand jury all of his texts with Stone from October 2016 to March 2017, as well as the written agenda for Stone while he was at the RNC in 2016. This follows his 2-hour grand jury testimony last week. https://t.co/38FEXP5O4M

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2019-06-07 (UTC)

02:53:27 @jhkersting @Polit_eurOpines Election Graphs keeps poll data in text files, then uses php (and some shell script) to preprocess some things; then php, JavaScript, and Highcharts to actually show the webpages. The code is really very messy, but happy to share samples if it would be helpful. Feel free to DM. in reply to jhkersting
02:57:29 @jhkersting @Polit_eurOpines In 2008 & 2012 I did @ElectionGraphs using a wiki, Excel, and screenshots of Excel graphs, plus posting commentary on my personal blog. So I feel the Excel pain. For 2016 I decided I had to automate for my own sanity. I’m in the process of adding more stuff for 2020 of course. <symbol> in reply to ElecCollPolls
03:10:49 @Polit_eurOpines @jhkersting @ElectionGraphs You can see one of the text (csv) files that powers @ElectionGraphs here: https://t.co/87p5MNyQAO – The php on the site reads that (and a couple others) and generates the various web pages and graphs. in reply to Polit_eurOpines
03:20:12 @Polit_eurOpines @jhkersting @ElectionGraphs I was more familiar with PHP than JS when I started (still am). Had to learn a lot of JS to drive the HighCharts though. So all the math and HTML generation is PHP plus some scattered unix shell stuff, but JavaScript drives the charts. in reply to Polit_eurOpines

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Going Bad

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Brandy joins Sam to talk about dogs, raisins, impeachment, Mexican tariffs, propaganda, polls, and electability. A fun and exciting show!

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-06-08
Length this week – 1:37:47

(0:00:33-0:57:18) Round 1
- Brandy: Raisin Dog
- Sam: Impeachment
(0:58:55-1:37:27) Round 2
- Brandy: Trump Soup
- Sam: Electability

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-06 (UTC)

00:38:27 Retweeted @jbview 2019-06-05 16:33:39 On Nixon, Trump, public opinion, impeachment, etc. Main point: What matters is presidential approval, not how impeachment polls. https://t.co/1uFK9KRHAF
02:25:11 @ClistonBrown @reesetheone1 @Nate_Cohn @MalcolmNance There were scattered polls that close, and even a few showing her leading, but Trump lead in average was never less than 4.5%, and was 9.9% at the end. (Per my @ElectionGraphs site.) https://t.co/T8Srb3jGAP https://t.co/D5o3GDgGgK in reply to ClistonBrown
02:29:36 @ClistonBrown @reesetheone1 @Nate_Cohn @MalcolmNance @ElectionGraphs Averaging the same way on the Biden vs Trump polls so far for 2020 Trump’s lead is now down to 1.2%. Having said that, 517 days is a long long timeвЂ¦ so I agree on not taking it too seriously yet. But it is still notable. https://t.co/mVeofe5pWj https://t.co/ShpjVDReNb in reply to abulsme
02:37:55 Retweeted @POLITICO_Steve 2019-06-05 17:37:04 By a more-than-two-to-one margin, *Texas Democratic voters* would rather see Beto O’Rourke run against John Cornyn (#TXSEN) in 2020 than continue his presidential campaign.New @QuinnipiacPoll: https://t.co/EMkhHfCsnO https://t.co/a1FrQ8ge9c
02:44:31 Retweeted @desiderioDC 02:03:09 EXCLUSIVE: In a tense private meeting last night, Pelosi told committee chairs that Trump should be вЂњin prison,вЂќ not impeachedвЂ”while Nadler made the case for impeachment proceedings.@heatherscope with the big scoop
https://t.co/VzCml7oTX3
02:53:19 Retweeted @ReformedBroker 2019-06-05 13:43:19 WHO DID THIS? https://t.co/oYzpcBPtAG
03:05:16 Retweeted @zeynep 2019-06-05 21:51:34 Apple is making very interesting moves. Also the new no-tracking sign-in. The existing Apple pay via no-tracking cryptographic token. I get the monopoly worry, but honestly these things should become industry standards for everyone. in reply to zeynep
03:40:01 Retweeted @BFriedmanDC 03:12:29 As a human being, I’d never vote for a Republican. But as a political pro, I have unending respect and admiration for how Republicans take power and wield it to create the type of society they want (as regressive as it is). They understand politics far better than Democrats. https://t.co/JvfYfZ9jea
12:47:48 Retweeted @jbarro 12:37:47 If there is an impeachment inquiry, of course there will be impeachment. Will Nadler not schedule an impeachment vote at the end of it? Will the committee not approve it? Will the House vote it down? Any of those scenarios is a political disaster for Democrats. in reply to jbarro
12:52:01 Retweeted @magi_jay 12:36:38 I’m pro-opening an inquiry myself, however, if the numbers don’t exist to impeach in the Dem caucus, that really would be a disaster. Acquittal in the Senate is something Dems can deal w/, imo. Trying & failing to impeach in the House would be awful. in reply to magi_jay
12:56:17 Retweeted @stepheneronan 12:36:18 Actual controls are a pain in the ass. They slow decision-making down – deliberately. They create extra work – deliberately. They drive costs up – deliberately. And they reduce the power of the leadership. Real controls are nearly always unpleasant for CEOs. in reply to stepheneronan
14:35:54 Listening to The Al Franken Podcast A Conversation with Michael Lewis https://t.co/npmYYcG6dF
14:55:48 Retweeted @sarahrainsford 14:33:33 Clarification: just spoke to Mikhail Gorbachev himself & he says he had an operation a few days ago but has started to feel better, tho there’s вЂnothing to sing about’.His aide says he’s back in his office today.
Gorby, 88, says he hopes his new book will come out this yr) in reply to sarahrainsford
15:31:34 Retweeted @ZachMontellaro 14:34:16 NEW: A major update to POLITICO’s analysis on who is in and who is out for the first Democratic debates at the end of this month: Bullock is OUT, de Blasio is IN https://t.co/C4SdjjADmg
15:53:42 This is so frustrating. *NO* public official should get the вЂњbenefit of the doubtвЂќ. Reporters should always come in skeptical and assuming people are trying to hoodwink or manipulate them, and should be checking everything. But CERTAINLY with a clear pattern like Trump’sвЂ¦ https://t.co/qqLf8707E6
20:59:54 Retweeted @natsecHeather 19:09:01 Trying to be all light and funny. But I had a toddler with seizures. Multiple times a day. Wouldn’t wish that on any parent. Meds gave his little brain space to re-wire itself. Cured him. Kids losing access to them, so a company can make as much profit as it can, is obscene. in reply to natsecHeather
22:12:57 Retweeted @ThePlumLineGS 14:52:24 NEW:House Judiciary members increasingly fear that without leverage of an impeachment inquiry, Democrats might LOSE some oversight battles in court, @RepRaskin tells me.
They fear “legal minefields in conservative courtrooms,” Raskin says.

My piece:
https://t.co/dcRWbLVjh2

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-05 (UTC)

16:37:04 Listening to Boom! Lawyered Clarence Thomas Just Declared War on Your Birth Control https://t.co/QJ8Wu1CDGG
18:45:24 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:31:33 And here comes Quinnipiac in TX. Details at @ElecCollPolls. This will be included in a blog post soon, but I think we have enough polling now to note that Texas is looking a lot less red than it has in the pastвЂ¦ #Election2020. https://t.co/WXpYdgwWwB https://t.co/xJViAOhYy4 https://t.co/r1jIXT4pOf in reply to ElectionGraphs
18:54:57 <symbol> https://t.co/OURKbmNrE1
19:39:10 Retweeted @mjwatts1983 19:36:06 @leftyjennyc Nov 2020Ds: Hooray we won the White House & kept the House!
Mitch McConnell: (Mr Burns hands) I still control the Senate….

Me: (looks at senate results, sees how many were close & pissed away because Ds didn’t recruit well, facepalm) in reply to leftyjennyc
20:22:31 Sigh https://t.co/hFIQTbKmdg
20:24:51 Retweeted @AJentleson 15:54:08 Impeaching Trump in the House forces these senators to fall in line and vote to protect Trump him. It’s that, or lose their base. Impeachment is the right thing to do for many reasons but politically, it is a *terrible* vote for Senate Rs. It is malpractice not to force it. https://t.co/ldm62Un57o
20:27:14 As I’ve said a few times now, even better, do it more than once. Don’t impeach on a dozen counts at once. Impeach with one count, wait for the Senate to acquit, repeat until the election. Plenty of things to impeach on. Make them keep covering for him over and over. https://t.co/7Qx72xajpN
20:49:50 FFS https://t.co/CUiFOzX2HT
21:14:30 UmmmвЂ¦. https://t.co/8UVuEddpNq
21:49:02 Retweeted @ezralevin 17:01:06 Trump’s approval ratings by state:
CO: -14
IA: -12
ME: -9
AZ: -6
NC: -4

If the House impeaches, GOP senators in those states will have to vote to convict or acquit. I’m not a highly paid Democratic consultant, but that seems good for Dems hoping to retake the Senate.
23:41:41 Listening to The Wright Show Speech Police (Robert Wright & David Kaye) https://t.co/qJiOCKALJ5

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2019-06-05 (UTC)

17:32:44 And before I could do a blog post, a new Glengaiff poll in Michigan has also been added. You can see the details over at @ElecCollPolls. Blog post tonight probably, maybe tomorrow. https://t.co/lzquo220by in reply to ElectionGraphs
18:31:33 And here comes Quinnipiac in TX. Details at @ElecCollPolls. This will be included in a blog post soon, but I think we have enough polling now to note that Texas is looking a lot less red than it has in the pastвЂ¦ #Election2020. https://t.co/WXpYdgwWwB https://t.co/xJViAOhYy4 https://t.co/r1jIXT4pOf in reply to ElectionGraphs

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2019-06-05 (UTC)

14:07:51 Poll Added: Glengariff [2] in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Biden 53.3% to Trump 41.4% #Election2020 https://t.co/lOTSJ2peAw
14:09:24 Poll Added: Glengariff w/3P [2] in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Biden 45.2% to Trump 38.5% to Amash 9.7% #Election2020 https://t.co/3v7qBQiOJf
14:12:04 Poll Added: Glengariff in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Sanders 53.2% to Trump 41.3% #Election2020 https://t.co/RX51awfiH3
14:30:07 Sanders vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Weak Sanders to Strong Sanders #Election2020 https://t.co/RX51awfiH3
14:30:15 Trump best case vs Sanders has changed: Sanders 214 to Trump 324 -> Sanders 230 to Trump 308 #Election2020 https://t.co/RA92psxY0S
14:32:31 Poll Added: Glengariff in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Buttigieg 46.8% to Trump 41.3% #Election2020 https://t.co/C35aqW5HG1
14:35:04 Poll Added: Glengariff in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Warren 47.3% to Trump 42.8% #Election2020 https://t.co/lp4k1aM3Qs
14:35:04 Warren vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Strong Warren to Weak Warren #Election2020 https://t.co/lp4k1aM3Qs
14:40:10 Trump best case vs Warren has changed: Warren 230 to Trump 308 -> Warren 214 to Trump 324 #Election2020 https://t.co/HjHFNF6EaD
14:41:47 Poll Added: Glengariff in MI from 2019-05-28 to 2019-05-30 – Harris 46.8% to Trump 43.5% #Election2020 https://t.co/9mmfyVt9OW
14:41:47 Harris vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Strong Harris to Weak Harris #Election2020 https://t.co/9mmfyVt9OW
14:45:07 Trump best case vs Harris has changed: Harris 216 to Trump 322 -> Harris 200 to Trump 338 #Election2020 https://t.co/Mp4HLCxN3r
17:54:18 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Biden 48% to Trump 44% #Election2020 https://t.co/M8i0LarU1k
18:04:51 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Sanders 44% to Trump 47% #Election2020 https://t.co/vVq7vW6JWl
18:07:03 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Warren 45% to Trump 46% #Election2020 https://t.co/KGIzPbDOnf
18:09:05 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Harris 43% to Trump 47% #Election2020 https://t.co/hyVpqeX5HP
18:13:10 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Buttigieg 44% to Trump 46% #Election2020 https://t.co/QqJv22vSdw
18:13:10 Buttigieg vs Trump state category change: TX has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump #Election2020 https://t.co/QqJv22vSdw
18:15:43 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – O’Rourke 45% to Trump 48% #Election2020 https://t.co/ZjgG4fvMXm
18:18:15 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in TX from 2019-05-29 to 2019-06-04 – Castro 43% to Trump 46% #Election2020 https://t.co/TlXdIgRyCp
18:18:16 Castro vs Trump state category change: TX has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump #Election2020 https://t.co/TlXdIgRyCp

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-04 (UTC)

00:51:18 @shelleyaw123 Of course. in reply to shelleyaw123
01:10:55 Another on the long list of potentially impeachable actions. The house should not focus so much on Trump/Russia. Don’t ignore it of course. But broaden the spotlight a bit please. https://t.co/gTHlxkYDyi
02:48:24 If you live in South Snohomish County (or are just nearby and want to show your support), come to my wife Brandy’s kickoff event on the 14th for her Fire Commissioner run! We’d love to see you! Click through for details and to say you are interested. https://t.co/x4ddxIKgxV https://t.co/4q9uRu2cIs
02:59:57 Retweeted @MikeGravel 2019-06-03 18:20:00 No matter who the Democrats nominate, Republicans will attack them as radical and socialist. That’s a given. The only real choice Democrats have is whether or not to inspire people in the process with policies that improve people’s lives.
04:57:54 Retweeted @KatyTurNBC 02:01:21 I thought I could understand the horror and feel the pain of what our govt was doing to these kids. Then I had my own child and I’ve realized no words are strong enough. https://t.co/9TXR2Jh7kD
05:09:14 Retweeted @MaryRobinette 2019-06-03 23:09:02 When I lived in Iceland, I found a lump. I had no idea how to navigate finding a doctor, so I went to our show’s production manager.Me: I found a lump. Can you help me find a doctor?
PM: Just go to the cancer center.
Me: Okay. How do a get a referral?
PM: What’s a referral?
06:02:05 Retweeted @JohnFugelsang 2019-06-03 23:12:24 That awkward moment when the Queen invites you to dinner but you just ate Boris Johnson https://t.co/WEu5gB2a8H
09:21:26 Interesting interview with Michael Wolff on his new book -> Listening to The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell Michael Wolff on Trump and the Mueller report https://t.co/PtDXCgXVKp
10:53:49 Reading – David Brooks Opinion | The Coming G.O.P. Apocalypse – The New York Times https://t.co/nMirxbQA8h
19:16:05 Uh. Ok. https://t.co/i73Aau7uXA
19:22:31 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:37:36 New Emerson poll in NC added over at @ElecCollPolls. A few category changes, so there will be a new blog post tonight or tomorrow when I have a chance. But you can see the changed results at https://t.co/E4Ot5d0bq1 now.
19:47:28 Retweeted @mcimaps 15:35:45 I coded each state based on their allegiance during the civil war and plotted what share of the nationwide vote came from each region. The “West” is states added after the war. The most notable trend is the effects of Jim Crow voting restrictions on the share of Confederate votes https://t.co/F4FyY47q97
19:58:44 Retweeted @PopulismUpdates 19:57:29 I thought I had it all together https://t.co/7PRSYcEEBO
21:16:37 Really Joe? https://t.co/Bn5t82Ymfs
21:26:23 Retweeted @UK_Coal 20:33:46 This #Coal free run ended at 18 Days 6 Hours 10 Minutes.This is the longest run without coal for Great Britain since 1882.
Generation during this time was met by: Gas 40%, Nuclear 20%, Wind 13%, Imports 11%, Biomass 8%, Solar 7%, Large Hydro <1%, Storage <1% https://t.co/CcGZzqFLpe
21:39:43 Retweeted @JuddLegum 16:49:33 NYT: Kushner is “positioning himself as the point person on raising money for the campaign,” organizing campaign fundraising meetings at the White HouseTHE LAW: It’s illegal for Jared to be involved in fundraising for the Trump campaign https://t.co/tVMyG9le9S
21:44:10 Retweeted @emptywheel 21:35:25 Here’s a likely explanation for why Nader came back to the US.https://t.co/o357QpuZNp https://t.co/ckfbSirUSh
23:10:35 Retweeted @greenfield64 23:08:27 I am obviously “prejudiced”, having worked in his Senate office and campaign, but think Al Lowenstein was right when he said RFK’s death gets harder as the years go by. He was 42; whether he’d won or not, his voice would have been important for decades. https://t.co/IioqphKWZ3
23:15:06 Thank goodness they are showing some spine. https://t.co/cFE6n1iHoO

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2019-06-04 (UTC)

18:37:36 New Emerson poll in NC added over at @ElecCollPolls. A few category changes, so there will be a new blog post tonight or tomorrow when I have a chance. But you can see the changed results at https://t.co/E4Ot5d0bq1 now.

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@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2019-06-08 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-07 (UTC)

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Going Bad

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-06 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-06-05 (UTC)

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