This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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@abulsme tweets from 2019-03-02 (UTC)

Election Graphs 2020 is live!

So, I mentioned a while ago that I wouldn’t be posting here regularly about developments over on my site Election Graphs. And I won’t. But I did want to mention that although I’m about four months later than I had wanted to be, and I haven’t yet made some of the changes and additions I have been thinking about, Election Graphs 2020 is now live and up to date with the sixteen 2020 state polls that have already been released, and I’ll be continuing to update it as new polls are released.

Recent highlights:

  • 2019-01-27: Polling Averages vs Reality – The first in a six-part series looking at how polling averages compared to actual election results in the last three election cycles. (Links to the other five posts in the series are in the first post.)
  • 2019-03-03: The 2020 Starting Line – A post looking at the average state by state election results for the past five cycles (2000-2016) to try to define what the “starting line” for the 2020 race looks like. This places each state where it would be based on this nearly 20-year history.
  • 2019-03-08: The First 2020 Polls – The kick off for actually looking at real polls for 2020, pitting various Democrats against Trump. The main theme so far… based on the very limited polling so far, Biden does better against Trump than the other four of the five “best polled” Democrats. (That would be Warren, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Harris.)

At this point, as new polls come in, I’ll be updating the Election Graphs Electoral College 2020 page regularly as new polls come in, and when there are notable changes, I’ll be doing blog posts on the main Election Graphs page.

That kind of stuff is now over there, not here, so if you want it, you either need to be checking ElectionGraphs.com itself, subscribe to it with an RSS reader (RSS link), follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or like and follow Election Graphs on Facebook.

Hope to see some of you over there!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Tug on the Thingy

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about the Cohen hearings, the North Korean summit, Ivan’s trip to Vietnam, the Florida sex trafficking ring, and the India/Pakistan conflict. Plus, a reminder of the upcoming Seattle meetup.

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Show Details:

Recorded 2019-03-02
Length this week – 1:46:54

  • (0:00:20-0:22:38) But First
    • Agenda
    • Seattle Meetup
    • Ivan in Vietnam
  • (0:23:22-1:08:54) Cohen Testimony
    • Everything priced in?
    • Republican response
    • AOC performance
    • Cohen’s receipts
    • Cohen denials
    • Democratic plans
  • (1:10:03-1:24:01) North Korean Summit
    • How not to do a summit
    • Trump trusting dictators
    • Credit for Trump?
  • (1:25:21-1:46:34) Mini Lightning Round
    • Ivan: Florida sex trafficking ring
    • Sam: India and Pakistan

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@abulsme tweets from 2019-03-01 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-02-28 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-02-27 (UTC)

  • 15:31:34 Retweeted @IAmSophiaNelson 15:29:24 Dayuuuuuuuuum.
    Cohen: “I know what Trump is–he is a racist. He is a cheat.”
    #HouseOversightCommittee
  • 15:38:16 Retweeted @MattZeitlin 15:37:03 just wait until the sanders-schultz-trump presidential debates https://t.co/wfm5zAPvZF
  • 15:40:27 “Did we know about the drop of hacked emails in advance? The answer is yes.”
  • 15:44:55 The room is dead quiet while Cohen is reading his statement.
  • 15:45:18 Retweeted @JarrettHill 15:40:00 “Trump would often say, this campaign was going to be the ‘greatest infomercial in political history.’ He never expected to win the primary. He never expected to win the general election. The campaign – for him – was always a marketing opportunity.” Michael Cohen
  • 15:49:25 Retweeted @politicalwire 15:40:03 If you have any bad news, now would be a really good time to release it
  • 15:53:59 Text of the prepared remarks for reference: https://t.co/TZMz7Zir2q
  • 15:54:41 Retweeted @jeffjarvis 15:54:04 “The meeting is all set.”
  • 15:55:42 Retweeted @flyosity 15:54:19 Cohen looks right into the camera and says he’s not Trump’s fixer anymore. Straight gangster.
  • 15:56:45 Retweeted @BenjySarlin 15:12:39 I know it’s the last best option, but it still amazes me that “This guy who was my personal fixer until less than a year ago is an obvious criminal liar!” is the line that’s supposed to clear up all these scandals
  • 15:57:08 Retweeted @dandrezner 15:54:30 Here’s what I don’t get: If this is correct, why all the desperate dirty tricks to tarnish Clinton? Was it to keep the score close, which would enhance his brand? Some campaign folks not in on the scheme? https://t.co/i6QOegyeio
  • 16:02:51 Retweeted @emptywheel 16:00:30 Don Jr signed one of the reimbursement checks!!(And Weisselberg.)

    Buhbye Uday. in reply to emptywheel

  • 16:15:23 Retweeted @MileHighBrendan 16:12:28 Most of the specifics we’re focused on now re: Cohen will be forgotten, but this point—which various post-presidency biographies & memoirs will surely confirm—will be central to what students in the latter half of this century will learn about the Trump era in history class. https://t.co/bTekuBsWp8
  • 16:20:34 The Republican questioning of Cohen so far is pathetic.
  • 16:31:11 Retweeted @Popehat 16:25:15 Witness: I killed six people for the defendant.
    GOP Defense Lawyer: Isn’t it true you killed EIGHT people for the defendant?
    Witness: Oh, right. Sorry.
    GOP Defense Lawyer: [nods smugly and crosses his arms]
    Prosecutor: [hums a happy little tune] in reply to Popehat
  • 16:31:52 Retweeted @_Drew_McCoy_ 16:25:21 Wait. Cohen says he’s not sure how many times Trump had him pay women off in 2015 and 16.When Maloney asked him for a number he said he’d have to check but “it was certainly the two that we know about”.

    So….there were others?

  • 16:32:15 Retweeted @emptywheel 16:25:26 Cohen: I believe they amended a financial disclosure form. There’s a footnote.Maloney: Catch and Kill.

    Cohen: AMI, They would contact me that there’s a story percolating. You contact the individual, and purchase rights from them. Involved in several of these. in reply to emptywheel

  • 16:32:39 Retweeted @NatashaBertrand 10:02:44 Great catch by @ScottMStedman: Trump told Mueller in writing that Roger Stone did not tell him about WikiLeaks, per CNN. But Cohen now says Stone told Trump about the impending WikiLeaks release in July 2016. If Mueller can prove Cohen’s story… https://t.co/TIsC7foVTI
  • 16:32:59 Retweeted @gtconway3d 16:22:32 They are disgracing themselves forever on the pages of history. And for what? https://t.co/NVOtO1ndoM
  • 16:38:24 Somebody should ask Cohen to reconcile the “Trump never wanted to win” part of his story with the “Trump took illegal actions in order to win” part of his story.
  • 16:46:19 @realCerealKillr I can speculate myself too. There are a number of answers that make sense, including yours below. I want someone to ask COHEN to hear HIS version of an answer. in reply to realCerealKillr
  • 16:59:28 This should be getting more attention than it is. https://t.co/dwcL5U9URO
  • 17:07:57 Retweeted @zachdcarter 15:37:16 The narrative Cohen is presenting here — that Trump never believed he had a chance to win, and used the 2016 presidential run as a way to drum up scammy business — is just a magnification of the way many leading Republicans have used presidential campaigns for years.
  • 17:10:18 Retweeted @Popehat 17:04:48 GOP Defense Lawyer: Isn’t it true, sir, that by testifying about my client’s crimes, you’re violating a lawyer’s duty of loyalty and confidentiality?Witness: I guess?

    GOP Defense Lawyer: AH-HAH! in reply to Popehat

  • 17:15:34 Retweeted @busblog 17:14:42 Donald Trump’s long-time lawyer: Trump did a shitload of illegal things, here are the receipts.GOP: https://t.co/D7IqTvEVEx
  • 17:17:16 Like Cohen, they will regret this some day. https://t.co/9ZqI3kBgNG
  • 17:19:13 Retweeted @ddale8 17:12:11 Asked if he’s seen Trump threatening physical violence to people, Cohen says, “No. He would use others.” Asked to clarify that Trump would hire people, Cohen says, “He didn’t have to hire them. They were already working there.” in reply to ddale8
  • 17:40:42 Retweeted @TODAYshow 17:36:44 “I just find it interesting, sir, that between yourself and your colleagues that not one question so far… has been asked about President Trump. That’s actually why I thought I was coming today. Not to confess the mistakes that I’ve made. I’ve already done that.” –Michael Cohen https://t.co/rPySbRWrwC
  • 17:44:07 Retweeted @fordm 17:42:08 “Why didn’t you stop him from committing all these crimes?” is, once again, an amazing line of questioning from the president’s congressional supporters.
  • 17:47:45 “Are you aware of other crimes the President was involved in that we haven’t talked about?” “Yes, they are active subjects of the SDNY investigation and they have asked me not to talk about them.”
  • 17:48:20 Retweeted @chrislhayes 17:42:24 It’s…weird to me no GOP rep has asked about Prague. It’s a slam dunk for them in terms of knocking down the “dodgy dossier” right? in reply to chrislhayes
  • 17:49:03 Retweeted @jbarro 17:40:46 “If you’re such a good lawyer, why did you do the crimes that the president asked you to do instead of telling him you can’t do crimes for him?” in reply to jbarro
  • 17:50:17 Retweeted @Ugarles 2019-02-26 16:09:13 it is insanely funny that the white house tries to smear michael cohen with the phrase “convicted liar” when the lie he was convicted for telling was “donald trump did nothing wrong”
  • 17:51:16 Retweeted @normative 17:41:19 He’s repeatedly intimidated there’s a long history of other hush money payoffs, and nobody’s followed up on it.
  • 18:50:35 I actually hadn’t heard this particular rumor before… https://t.co/zoL5pG9Cps
  • 18:51:12 Retweeted @KenDilanianNBC 18:50:33 Cohen just denied under oath having ever been in Prague, and he also said he never met with Russians on his 2016 trip elsewhere in Europe. That would seem to drive a stake in the heart of a story that has refused to die.
  • 19:19:58 Retweeted @CAPAction 17:27:06 “Everybody’s job at the Trump Org was to protect Mr. Trump. Every day, most of us knew we were coming in and we were going to lie for him on something.And that’s exactly what’s happening right now in this country. It’s exactly what’s happening here in government.” #CohenHearing https://t.co/8qJSTxag4z
  • 19:20:34 Retweeted @TreyYingst 18:38:00 India/Pakistan update:-Air bases in Pakistan at “war alert levels”
    -Indian PM Modi reportedly gives “free hand” to military
    -Heavy clashes reported now in the Kashmir region
    -Pakistani PM Khan calls for talks
    -Many countries urging calm between the two nuclear armed powers
  • 22:01:19 Oh god, just turned the hearings on again after having gotten back from a lunch meeting. They are yelling at each other about who is racist. Seeing the hearings are going well. All good.

@abulsme tweets from 2019-02-26 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-02-25 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2019-02-24 (UTC)