- 00:16:49 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 00:16:38 Watching #ALSen results tonight?If yes, these are the counties you need to keep an eye on:… https://t.co/AiQFtgGEfy in reply to gelliottmorris
- 00:25:34 Retweeted @MendezReport 00:25:00 Since R primary runoff, our personal polling average has shown Moore’s lead collapse as the campaign has gone along… https://t.co/2WolKOPY3s
- 00:42:52 Retweeted @jshkatz 2017-12-12 21:50:12 NYT Alabama results are live. for the jitter/uncertainty purists, in your console just type:USE_JITTER = true… https://t.co/dooM6xFBx9
- 02:19:19 Just finished my commute home. Holy shit. People are going to start calling this soon… Jones wins? In Alabama? Of… https://t.co/owvfQQpisw
- 02:24:21 Retweeted @SeanTrende 02:24:07 I dunno what the NYT meter is seeing right now, but it’s not really what I’m seeing at the county level. Maybe som… https://t.co/BHyfqKgji5
- 02:25:41 Retweeted @molly_knight 02:23:41 It’s pretty neat @UpshotNYT uses a needle because I feel like I’m being stabbed by one every time it moves. https://t.co/elsbESfquR
- 02:30:20 Retweeted @BCAppelbaum 02:30:06 Half the votes are counted. Moore leads by four. But the needle is not impressed. https://t.co/GxuBjP4AAo
- 02:30:27 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 02:30:11 I’m not confident enough to predict a Jones victory just yet, but…. #ALSen https://t.co/gh0iVsIxrn in reply to gelliottmorris
- 02:31:26 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 02:20:01 Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far… https://t.co/umdN1DbdUc in reply to Nate_Cohn - 02:33:02 Retweeted @benchmarkpol 02:32:50 Word of caution before getting too excited. We have no idea which early returns came through in the cities. At thes… https://t.co/JzXFYpGfrb
- 02:33:17 Retweeted @kurtbardella 02:32:58 right now @nytimes political data unit thinks about 623,000 votes remain to be counted saying “We think Mr. Jones l… https://t.co/dXosEcBzMq
- 02:33:31 Retweeted @bobcesca_go 02:33:05 NYT
Raw vote = Moore +4.8%
Forecast = Jones +3.7%
Sumter, Dallas counties (went Hillary ’16) haven’t reported votes yet. - 02:35:29 Retweeted @MarisaKabas 02:35:21 needle, needle, needle,
they made it out of votes,
and when it’s finished moving,
we’re bound to yell like goats. - 02:36:21 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 02:36:13 Here you can see the differential turnout issue for the GOP in completed counties.
In completed counties, turnout w… https://t.co/A6Vcpd0r7a in reply to Nate_Cohn - 02:36:53 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 02:30:38 All these anecdotal reports of low black turnout from reporters turned out to be trash based on these returns. Black voters are turning out.
- 02:39:51 Retweeted @dmartosko 02:39:17 NY Times predict-o-meter starting to creep back toward center https://t.co/YdZTN2qO4L
- 02:43:48 This chart on the NYT needle page ( https://t.co/2AqphaHFl5 ) is less fun than the needle, but gives lots more info. https://t.co/xgJ12nDaos
- 02:51:10 Good to read this whole thread by Nate Cohn on uncertainties in the NYT model, why it might be right, and why it mi… https://t.co/jB0xJ28Nbp
- 02:54:06 Retweeted @EsotericCD 02:53:55 We are heading to a ridiculously close photo-finish here, as Dem-area precincts overperform and GOP-area precincts… https://t.co/ss75v7oqmr
- 02:55:39 Just watch, this thing will end up in a recount that lasts weeks and ends up in court over irregularities or some such… Woo!
- 02:58:04 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 02:57:40 @PatrickRuffini weird how mine goes the other way https://t.co/nIZwAlFPfk in reply to PatrickRuffini
- 02:59:51 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 02:59:37 And my guess is that once a big metro county wraps up, that the CI will tighten up *and* the needle will move. But… https://t.co/OQl7BwYJVG in reply to Nate_Cohn
- 03:05:21 Confidence interval still Jones +8 to Moore +4 at NYT. @Nate_Cohn talking about how the model is VERY uncertain at… https://t.co/0RYaAnvlUh
- 03:07:50 @Nate_Cohn Having said that, looks like the actual count may flip to Jones soon… https://t.co/EPxOPjNvbT in reply to abulsme
- 03:08:30 Retweeted @pbump 03:08:17 John King’s relationship with Wolf is like that of a museum guide dealing with a class of third-graders.
- 03:08:48 Retweeted @chrisgeidner 03:08:36 Jones has the lead, per @DecisionDeskHQ, but it’s very close and @B_M_Finnigan says the numbers left leave things v… https://t.co/mY6AI1P4wZ in reply to chrisgeidner
- 03:10:45 Retweeted @JordanUhl 03:10:32 With 84.6% of the vote in, there’s only 4,000ish votes separating Roy Moore and Doug Jones.Now imagine where we’… https://t.co/yCVO33JgKy
- 03:11:19 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 03:11:06 Preemptive poll defense if(when?) Jones pulls this off: polls said this had a 40% chance of happening.… https://t.co/pwQi1aiXkh in reply to gelliottmorris
- 03:11:47 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 03:11:34 We’re now over a million votes counted. Almost all of the vote left is in Dem metro strongholds. We won’t know how… https://t.co/07tFkwR9nq
- 03:13:23 Retweeted @PollsAndVotes 03:13:10 Here is a caution. Outstanding vote estimates are tricky things. It currently looks like what’s out heavily favors… https://t.co/VCTzHLciIi
- 03:13:52 Retweeted @brithume 03:13:17 Betting odds as of 10:10 pm. Complete turnaround from earlier. https://t.co/5VFNuiKy4U
- 03:14:42 Those odds in the last retweet are from https://t.co/8MB90VbR2B
- 03:16:54 Retweeted @MattOrtega 03:15:47 NYT: 85% in, less than 200 votes separate them. Unreal. #ALSen https://t.co/64zKejKI3m
- 03:17:47 Jones just took the lead… https://t.co/Dx3MC1bgqv
- 03:20:05 NYT range down to Jones +7 to Moore +1.4. Do they call it when there range doesn’t include a Moore win at all? https://t.co/2AqphaHFl5
- 03:20:34 Retweeted @imbou 03:20:23 @abulsme Courts!!! Chads!!! Hanging chads!!!! in reply to abulsme
- 03:21:06 Retweeted @dmartosko 03:20:58 The NYT predict-o-meter has just gone beyond the point of no return for Jones. https://t.co/N6OSYjFpL9
- 03:21:48 NYT range now Jones +4.2 to Jones +1.0. Enough to call it? https://t.co/pbFi7Bctau
- 03:25:09 Retweeted @Redistrict 02:59:25 Amazing: turnout is at 72%-77% of ’16 presidential race in heavily black counties, but just 55%-60% in rural white… https://t.co/Csu15jT0Tj
- 03:25:25 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 03:25:06 Doug Jones is the projected winner in Alabama according to the AP.
- 03:25:58 Retweeted @AP 03:24:40 BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones wins election as U.S. senator from Alabama. @AP race call at 10:23 p.m. EST. #AlabamaElection #APracecall
- 03:28:58 Alabama. Senate won by a Dem. Given everything surrounding Moore, this isn’t as much of a predictor of anything 201… https://t.co/5WA2xzpCWI
- 03:29:36 Retweeted @fawfulfan 03:25:26 BREAKING: Roy Moore has been banned from the National Mall.
- 03:32:41 Thank you Alabama.
- 03:34:43 The Republicans can now only spare 2 votes in the Senate (instead of 3). How fast does Jones get sworn in? Pretty c… https://t.co/h7Gkw4Ixuq
- 03:34:54 Retweeted @franklinleonard 03:28:41 Roy Moore liked this night when it was much younger.
- 03:38:10 Retweeted @ASlavitt 03:37:39 Steve Bannon, whatever you did in Alabama, keep doing it for the next year. If the Mercer’s stop paying you, will get in touch with Soros.
- 03:40:25 Retweeted @Bencjacobs 03:34:37 Cory Gardner is already recruiting Jones to switch parties https://t.co/rQecr8ozw7
- 03:47:31 Thread. D’s should contest every state and every congressional district in 2018. Local races too. Yes, Moore was sp… https://t.co/7Yd5Z4a7QN
- 03:49:01 Retweeted @databyler 00:54:43 Senate simulations for Trump at 37.6 percent approval IF Moore wins. Underlines why this seat matters for Senate co… https://t.co/yGFAYVw1bz
- 03:51:00 Retweeted @GDouglasJones 03:30:58 Thank you ALABAMA!!
- 03:52:18 Retweeted @matthewamiller 03:33:46 Six months ago, I asked the smartest Dem Senate strategist where the three seats to win the majority back were: “Ne… https://t.co/kaf88fODP4
- 03:52:33 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:50:58 I love all this “Hanukkah miracle” and “act of God,” but let’s be clear: God is working through black women here. https://t.co/S3M871DsFw
- 04:04:42 Yes, the D’s should contest everywhere, and have chances places they might not have imagined before. But the below… https://t.co/U9RebO2lYi
- 04:41:59 Retweeted @Castantine 04:40:08 Just an FYI, this bullshit Merrill and Moore are pulling has nothing to do with contesting the election or a recoun… https://t.co/6y8YDTYy9E
- 04:43:29 Retweeted @AdamParkhomenko 04:41:35 Reporters went up to the office of the Secretary of State after being told to by the Moore campaign to learn of the… https://t.co/77YKv6hEk5
- 04:44:35 Retweeted @petridishes 04:41:55 huh weird based on everything we’ve seen I would have expected Roy Moore to take “no” immediately and respectfully for an answer
- 04:45:03 Retweeted @JohnKerry 2017-12-12 22:35:29 Too soon, Karen…too soon. https://t.co/SJwkFmYuPY
- 04:46:30 Retweeted @toddzwillich 04:42:24 Ala Sec of State John Merrill says it’s “highly unlikely” Doug Jones won’t be certified as senate election winner
- 04:47:08 Retweeted @natemcdermott 04:42:37 Alabama’s secretary of state seems to be pouring cold water on the idea pushed by Moore’s campaign that outstanding… https://t.co/1WHph6qujf
- 04:51:50 Retweeted @jtuckermartin 04:31:41 At some point we will all realize there isn’t much analysis needed: Americans don’t like Donald Trump. He was an hi… https://t.co/1u9xc6kK7s
- 04:52:19 Retweeted @AuthorLMendez 04:50:19 Tend to agree and folks forget that most major upsets (1948 Pres, 1992 House of Commons) are followed by a correcti… https://t.co/zCleGCSY8w
- 04:53:09 Retweeted @deray 03:46:43 Black folks elected Doug Jones. FYI. #AlabamaSenateElection https://t.co/CErgK6eOeI
- 04:53:56 Retweeted @Acosta 04:02:47 Source close to WH: “It’s devastating for the president… this is an earthquake… Virginia but on steroids… the… https://t.co/VMzEe6bKQo
- 05:01:12 Honestly don’t think this is a problem. Investigators SHOULD think the worst of the people they are investigating.… https://t.co/q6dnwSmwgu
- 05:19:20 Retweeted @guypbenson 05:14:59 100% of precincts reporting. Jones’ victory margin is just shy of 21k votes. Nearly 23k Alabamians voted for write-… https://t.co/lkTOFyaHsZ
- 05:27:54 Retweeted @trekonomics 05:16:50 Per @joshtpm law: Trump will need to hurt somebody soon.
- 05:31:29 Retweeted @jim_newell 00:10:41 Alabama SoS office says their “anticipated date of certification is sometime from December 27 – 29.” deadline is Ja… https://t.co/dd4wPFYnzf
- 05:35:38 So tax votes next week will definitely happen with 52 R’s. R’s can still lose up to three. Don’t see any reason McC… https://t.co/RvtT3bytqj
- 05:47:08 Retweeted @WotDpod 00:35:30 Today’s episode of random Wiki of the Day is on the article Scots Hotel.Listen to the new episode here:… https://t.co/RAWq8t23Wb
- 05:49:02 Retweeted @saletan 05:08:55 Here are the adjusted exits. Moore lost women without kids by 11 points. He lost mothers by 34. You know why.… https://t.co/wZq02cs5Vt
- 05:58:25 Retweeted @sallykohn 03:50:27 Dear Democratic Party,Read this chart. Stop ignoring black voters and acting like working class white voters are… https://t.co/oSPm45EdJf
- 06:06:05 Retweeted @thehill 05:29:03 NY Daily News shreds Moore: “Screw you and horse you rode in on” https://t.co/dIMgfkTp4k https://t.co/XypkIwM6KE
- 06:09:19 Retweeted @SeanMcElwee 05:43:15 The wide age gap in the Senate election highlights the importance of investing in youth turnout for 2018. Young vot… https://t.co/iZvFVhmuBc
- 06:10:12 Retweeted @EsotericCD 03:55:32 I surely hope that it is not lost upon people that Doug Jones AL-SEN 2017 is a deadly perfect analogue to Scott Bro… https://t.co/eUAgqmfstR
- 06:11:24 Yup. This. -> https://t.co/LkqwrnyqAJ
- 06:14:04 Retweeted @joshtpm 05:35:21 Good grief did Ana Navarro go off on this dude https://t.co/wwq5tbGmLC
- 06:16:11 Retweeted @kerpen 04:57:38 Jones finishes at 93.5% of Hillary Clinton’s raw vote total.
Moore at 49.8% of Trump’s. - 06:18:46 Retweeted @curiousmagpies 05:44:30 @mattdpearce Serendipitous Twitter. https://t.co/tYJKGYnTe5 in reply to mattdpearce
- 06:19:03 Retweeted @KSoltisAnderson 05:38:17 Tuscaloosa County went +20 for Trump in 2016.Doug Jones just won it by +16.
<symbol> in reply to KSoltisAnderson
- 06:25:43 Retweeted @MeghanMcCain 03:40:18 Suck it, Bannon
- 06:35:00 Retweeted @owillis 04:20:59 Hey reporters how about you go talk to the black Alabamians who just elected Doug Jones and ask THEM about Trump?
- 12:38:03 Oops https://t.co/mvsPJ8c7c0
- 14:26:56 Retweeted @AprilDRyan 14:14:49 I am hearing from several sources there was a lot of drama at the White House last night and it wasn’t about the Al… https://t.co/eBjz6YYfyB
- 15:45:16 Ah. It was Omarosa. https://t.co/6vTlF8JNtq
- 16:13:13 Retweeted @ReaganBattalion 15:30:52 Don’t let anyone in on the secret, but every single FBI agent, has a political opinion, so does every soldier and p… https://t.co/WETyP7yyKl
- 16:15:48 Thread https://t.co/oaAVTTdVqz
- 16:20:15 Retweeted @epicciuto 16:12:40 “Because Mueller’s team has partisan affiliations, they cannot be trusted to state the truth!” claim a group of pol… https://t.co/KOgfNrW3IJ
- 16:28:47 Fun thread https://t.co/ehc7k3UPYf
- 17:46:52 Joe was always one of the good ones. https://t.co/gI9qegM5EL
- 18:21:19 Retweeted @Recode 18:00:29 Patreon has changed its mind about a new payments plan that everyone hated https://t.co/PnGnbfFh2e https://t.co/IFxylcVpJJ
- 19:46:36 Reading – Republicans Say They Have a Deal on Tax Bill (Jim Tankersley) https://t.co/LiWzTRzTqm
- 22:28:37 Uh, ok. https://t.co/YpWn9qZekB
- 22:39:53 Retweeted @xkcdComic 20:33:08 Seven Years https://t.co/O1N5MGUOAr https://t.co/kmjiZX7hWg https://t.co/cU0LeK7ifI
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Ivan is back from Moscow and joins Sam to talk about his impressions of Russia. They also hit most of the last week of Trump administration craziness, they talk about Franken, Franks, Conyers, and Moore as part of the latest round of sexual harassment fallout, and they round it out with a little discussion of Bitcoin, CryptoKitties, iPhone X, and even Sam’s somewhat different Christmas tree. Click below to listen and subscribe!
Show Details: Recorded 2017-12-08
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch. Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link) Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link) Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link) Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.
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