2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Bush - New Hampshire [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-01-05 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-01-09 17:54 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Bush National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Bush

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-01-05 12:00	PPP	46.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 6.0%	2016-01-04 2016-01-06	2016-01-08 2016-01-09 17:54
2015-12-01 12:00	PPP	43.0%	41.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-11-30 2015-12-02	2015-12-07 2015-12-08 08:11
2015-11-16 12:00	Fox	42.0%	45.0%	Bush by 3.0%	2015-11-15 2015-11-17	2015-11-18 2015-11-22 10:55
2015-11-11 12:00	Morning Consult	42.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-11-06 2015-11-16	2015-11-19 2015-11-22 09:00
2015-10-17 12:00	PPP	45.0%	41.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2015-10-16 2015-10-18	2015-10-21 2015-10-25 17:44

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2015-09-27 00:00	Marist	42.0%	49.0%	Bush by 7.0%	2015-09-23 2015-09-30	2015-10-05 2015-10-06 04:23
2015-08-30 00:00	Marist	43.0%	48.0%	Bush by 5.0%	2015-08-26 2015-09-02	2015-09-06 2015-09-07 18:12
2015-08-23 00:00	PPP	46.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 7.0%	2015-08-21 2015-08-24	2015-08-26 2015-08-27 14:42
2015-07-26 12:00	WMUR	45.0%	46.0%	Bush by 1.0%	2015-07-22 2015-07-30	2015-08-05 2015-08-06 04:19
2015-05-04 12:00	Purple	44.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 2.0%	2015-05-02 2015-05-06	2015-05-08 2015-05-11 01:08
2015-04-29 00:00	WMUR	41.0%	47.0%	Bush by 6.0%	2015-04-24 2015-05-03	2015-05-07 2015-05-08 02:42
2015-04-29 00:00	Dartmouth	34.1%	36.9%	Bush by 2.8%	2015-04-27 2015-04-30	2015-05-06 2015-05-07 04:45
2015-04-22 00:00	Gravis	42.0%	42.0%	TIED	2015-04-21 2015-04-22	2015-04-27 2015-05-01 05:24
2015-04-11 12:00	PPP	49.0%	36.0%	Clinton by 13.0%	2015-04-09 2015-04-13	2015-04-21 2015-04-21 16:54
2015-03-19 00:00	Gravis	43.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-03-18 2015-03-19	2015-03-21 2015-03-24 18:21
2015-02-07 00:00	Marist	48.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 6.0%	2015-02-03 2015-02-10	2015-02-15 2015-02-15 19:07
2015-02-03 00:00	Purple	50.0%	36.0%	Clinton by 14.0%	2015-01-31 2015-02-05	2015-02-11 2015-02-13 08:55
2015-01-28 12:00	WMUR	51.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 12.0%	2015-01-22 2015-02-03	2015-02-09 2015-02-11 06:39
2014-11-15 12:00	Purple	47.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 8.0%	2014-11-12 2014-11-18	2014-11-24 2014-11-25 05:35
2014-07-10 12:00	Marist	47.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2014-07-07 2014-07-13	2014-07-17 2014-07-18 14:42
2014-04-23 12:00	Dartmouth	42.1%	32.2%	Clinton by 9.9%	2014-04-21 2014-04-25	2014-05-08 2014-05-13 05:33
2014-01-22 12:00	Purple	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-01-21 2014-01-23	2014-01-24 2014-01-31 00:51
2014-01-11 00:00	PPP	49.0%	38.0%	Clinton by 11.0%	2014-01-09 2014-01-12	2014-01-16 2014-01-23 23:27
2013-09-15 00:00	PPP	49.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 9.0%	2013-09-13 2013-09-16	2013-09-18 2013-09-25 23:21
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.0%	46.4%	DEM by 5.6%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:47
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	54.1%	44.5%	DEM by 9.6%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:30
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	50.2%	48.9%	DEM by 1.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:52
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	46.8%	48.1%	REP by 1.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:28
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	49.3%	39.4%	DEM by 10.0%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 16:06
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	38.9%	37.7%	DEM by 1.2%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:20
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	36.3%	62.5%	REP by 26.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:22
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	31.0%	68.7%	REP by 37.7%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:35
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	28.4%	57.7%	REP by 29.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:54

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

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