2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Bush - Iowa [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-01-09 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-07-11 00:27 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Bush National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Bush

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-01-09 12:00	PPP	40.0%	43.0%	Bush by 3.0%	2016-01-08 2016-01-10	2016-01-12 2016-07-11 00:27
2015-12-12 00:00	PPP	46.0%	41.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2015-12-10 2015-12-13	2015-12-17 2015-12-19 17:53
2015-11-13 12:00	Morning Consult	40.0%	41.0%	Bush by 1.0%	2015-11-10 2015-11-16	2015-11-19 2015-11-22 08:31
2015-10-31 12:00	PPP	45.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2015-10-30 2015-11-01	2015-11-04 2015-11-05 06:46
2015-09-27 00:00	Marist	40.0%	50.0%	Bush by 10.0%	2015-09-23 2015-09-30	2015-10-05 2015-10-06 03:16

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Bush	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2015-09-19 12:00	PPP	41.0%	42.0%	Bush by 1.0%	2015-09-18 2015-09-20	2015-09-25 2015-09-26 01:56
2015-08-30 00:00	Marist	39.0%	50.0%	Bush by 11.0%	2015-08-26 2015-09-02	2015-09-06 2015-09-07 14:18
2015-08-08 12:00	PPP	44.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2015-08-07 2015-08-09	2015-08-11 2015-08-12 06:50
2015-07-15 00:00	Quinnipiac	36.0%	42.0%	Bush by 6.0%	2015-07-09 2015-07-20	2015-07-22 2015-07-22 13:30
2015-05-29 00:00	Gravis	43.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-05-28 2015-05-29	2015-06-03 2015-06-05 12:58
2015-04-25 00:00	PPP	45.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-04-23 2015-04-26	2015-04-30 2015-05-02 15:36
2015-04-13 12:00	Gravis	43.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 3.0%	2015-04-13 2015-04-13	2015-04-21 2015-04-21 15:02
2015-04-03 00:00	Quinnipiac	41.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 1.0%	2015-03-29 2015-04-07	2015-04-09 2015-04-10 05:28
2015-02-13 00:00	Gravis	43.0%	37.0%	Clinton by 6.0%	2015-02-12 2015-02-13	2015-02-17 2015-02-18 05:24
2015-02-10 12:00	Quinnipiac	45.0%	35.0%	Clinton by 10.0%	2015-02-05 2015-02-15	2015-02-18 2015-02-19 10:28
2015-02-07 00:00	Marist	48.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 8.0%	2015-02-03 2015-02-10	2015-02-15 2015-02-15 18:53
2014-10-21 00:00	Gravis	42.6%	43.5%	Bush by 0.9%	2014-10-20 2014-10-21	2014-10-23 2014-10-24 22:51
2014-10-06 00:00	DMR	46.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 7.0%	2014-10-03 2014-10-08	2014-10-11 2014-10-12 06:46
2014-09-30 00:00	Gravis	41.0%	41.0%	TIED	2014-09-29 2014-09-30	2014-10-02 2014-10-05 16:26
2014-09-27 00:00	PPP	43.0%	43.0%	TIED	2014-09-25 2014-09-28	2014-09-30 2014-10-01 05:42
2014-07-10 12:00	Marist	46.0%	42.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-07-07 2014-07-13	2014-07-17 2014-07-18 04:57
2014-06-14 12:00	Quinnipiac	49.0%	36.0%	Clinton by 13.0%	2014-06-12 2014-06-16	2014-06-23 2014-06-23 19:49
2014-06-05 00:00	Loras	48.7%	38.2%	Clinton by 10.5%	2014-06-04 2014-06-05	2014-06-05 2014-06-13 00:17
2014-05-17 12:00	PPP	44.0%	39.0%	Clinton by 5.0%	2014-05-15 2014-05-19	2014-05-22 2014-05-22 18:22
2014-04-14 00:00	WFB	43.8%	39.0%	Clinton by 4.8%	2014-04-13 2014-04-14	2014-04-14 2014-04-28 08:53
2014-03-08 00:00	Quinnipiac	51.0%	37.0%	Clinton by 14.0%	2014-03-05 2014-03-10	2014-03-13 2014-03-13 21:55
2014-02-22 00:00	PPP	45.0%	41.0%	Clinton by 4.0%	2014-02-20 2014-02-23	2014-02-27 2014-03-02 10:05
2013-12-13 00:00	Quinnipiac	47.0%	40.0%	Clinton by 7.0%	2013-12-10 2013-12-15	2013-12-17 2013-12-17 23:58
2013-07-06 12:00	PPP	50.0%	36.0%	Clinton by 14.0%	2013-07-05 2013-07-07	2013-07-11 2013-08-07 01:02
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.0%	46.2%	DEM by 5.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:28
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	53.9%	44.4%	DEM by 9.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:55
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	49.2%	49.9%	REP by 0.7%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:57
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	48.5%	48.2%	DEM by 0.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:29
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	50.3%	39.9%	DEM by 10.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:06
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.3%	37.3%	DEM by 6.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:29
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	54.7%	44.5%	DEM by 10.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:28
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	45.9%	53.3%	REP by 7.4%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:38
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	38.6%	51.3%	REP by 12.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:37

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

Page cached at 2023-03-23 07:38:19 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.540 seconds

Page displayed at 2024-11-21 18:13:23 UTC

Page generated in 0.117 seconds