00:10:36 .@librab103 I’m going by CNN. They don’t seem to have called it yet. If others have in the last few hours though, they probably will soon. in reply to librab103
00:12:32 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA00:11:25 Anyone know when there will be new Trump polls? Curious if there is regret or if these rallies in cities are causing people to support him.
00:35:31 Retweeted @GeorgeTakei00:34:42 Most Trump supporters voted for him DESPITE his racism and misogyny. So most also don't like these traits. Therein lies some common ground.
02:25:45 Retweeted @nxthompson02:01:18 Highest Presidential vote getters in US history:
1) Barack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) George W Bush
4) Donald Trump
02:26:10 Retweeted @ananavarro02:02:20 Today, I cried for 1st time since election. Not for me. I have a platform & powerful friends. I cried for the voiceless ppl living in fear.
03:26:57 Retweeted @nielslesniewski2016-11-12 23:07:35 Reminder: Mike Lee, Ben Sasse, Jeff Flake and Lindsey Graham can stop anything President-elect Trump wants to do that requires Congress.
03:42:08 Retweeted @samsteinhp2016-11-12 19:19:21 There may be swastikas popping up, and spikes in hate speech, and major conflcits of interest, but at least they're not using private email
15:14:10 Retweeted @joshrogin14:18:18 Giuliani to @jaketapper on ethics laws on conflicts of interests: "Those laws don't apply to the president." I feel so much better.
15:26:48 Retweeted @matthewjdowd13:39:12 Until Dems learn how to compete in rural and small towns, and GOP in urban areas, our country will remain very divided.
15:40:31 Retweeted @MikeDrucker15:25:03 THINK PIECE: Hillary Clinton would've won the presidency if a butterfly didn't flap its wings in Thailand in 1975.
15:51:57 Now that the election is over, finally installing Sierra on my main Mac…
16:00:40 Retweeted @AndyHarless15:24:34 A nasty thing about narrow losses is there are 100 different things to which they can accurately be attributed, including luck of the draw.
19:28:28 Retweeted @BBCSteveR17:37:53 Russian TV predicts under Trump 'there'll be fewer lies & similar rubbish dressed up in pretty words..like 'democracy' & 'human rights'".
20:49:16 Retweeted @MarcACaputo20:35:39 Reince Priebus will be chief of staff, source who spoke to Trump tells me. Announcement could come in the next half hour
00:57:16 Retweeted @Politics1com00:43:28 PEOTUS Trump "may not spend much time trying to get Mexico to pay for [the Wall], but it was a great campaign device" – Newt Gingrich
02:25:51 Retweeted @secupp2016-11-11 18:07:30 The winner of the Bannon v. Priebus COS battle will answer basically every question about Pres-elect Trump's plans.
02:53:30 Reading – Donald Trump Prepares for White House Move, but His Tower May Still Beckon (Haberman/Parker) https://t.co/thUTly9vxj
03:26:07 Retweeted @MiltShook03:25:08 I'm just tired of so-called "progs" who spent 2 yrs trashing Dems and then blame the Dems for the election. You're all idiots.
03:36:56 Retweeted @UrbanAchievr03:08:55 Time to retire the "take Trump seriously, but not literally" formulation. When you're president, everything you say will be taken literally.
03:43:45 Retweeted @paulwaldman103:15:45 Can everyone stop praising Trump every time he acts like a civilized human being for 5 minutes? Is this really how he's going to be judged?
17:27:39 Retweeted @bdomenech13:56:22 Trump won 209 of the nearly 700 counties that voted for Obama twice.
2,200 counties never supported Obama. Clinton won 6.
Six.
17:27:50 Retweeted @scalzi17:02:16 Feel very bad for the folks who apparently think "We voted for a racist because you all said we were racists" is in any way a good argument.
17:44:32 .@B_M_Finnigan Any idea what timelines are on remaining Michigan counting and when folks might finally start to call it?
17:48:15 Retweeted @NateSilver53817:00:02 A—There's a 30% chance of an earthquake
B—LOL ur crazy no way it's that high
{{earthquake}}
B—Idiot! You said a 70% chance of no earthquake
20:25:41 Retweeted @mattyglesias20:24:27 As best I can tell neither party's senate caucus engaged in any planning for the scenario in which Trump won the election.
Election 2016 is done! Trump won! Everybody is surprised! So of course we have a super-long election wrap up! Darryl joins Sam and Ivan to discuss the Election Graphs and Horsesass electoral college models, what went right, what went wrong, and what we can learn for next time. Then all three discuss the reaction to and ramifications of Trump’s victory. For maybe the last time for a few years, it is an all election, all politics show!
Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
1-Click Subscribe in iTunes View Podcast in iTunes View Raw Podcast Feed Download MP3 File Follow the podcast on Facebook Support us on Patreon
Show Details:
Recorded 2016-11-11
Length this week – 2:24:32
(0:00:10-1:05:00) Polling Post Mortem
Surprise!
Darryl’s Final Projections
Suspicious Polls
Where polls went wrong
Sources of poll uncertainty
Last minute Trump surge?
Actually very very close
National polls
Sam’s post mortem
Problems with the odds
Turnout
(1:06:10-2:24:12) The Aftermath
Our reactions
Reactions from the right
Trump’s appeal to the white working class
Clinton’s weaknesses
Republican Obstruction strategy
Would Sanders have won?
Should Democrats obstruct?
The Republican agenda
Anti-Trump protests
Which Trump do we get?
Future of the parties
Bold Predictions
Calling Trump voters racist
Radicalization
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
02:04:33 Retweeted @LPDonovan01:11:53 Clearly the polls were terrible where it mattered- in this case MI/WI/PA. But all three saw a disproportionate break for him at the end. in reply to LPDonovan
17:54:49 Retweeted @ryanstruyk17:14:14 In Florida, black voters went for Obama 95-4% in '12. This year, they went for Clinton 84-8% w/ 4% Stein — worst support for Dem since '88.
21:07:48 Retweeted @SimonMaloy20:39:02 the new president is about to learn, for the first time, because he's ignorant as hell, that health policy is extremely hard
21:59:52 Retweeted @NoahCRothman20:33:40 In the last 72 hours, Trump & co. have walked back his position on:
The Wall
Trade
Punishing China
Mideast policy
Repealing Obamacare.
22:12:38 Retweeted @ggreenwald17:13:29 Trump is a fascist, racist, authoritarian acting as a Kremlin agent, and we must keep an open mind & respect his win. Is that the message?
01:55:56 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA00:29:24@abulsme "tipping state is Pennsylvania Clinton +1.6%." you nailed how close election was.. polling error + undecided tilting more Trump. <symbol>
01:59:12 .@DaveMc99TA Thanks! Although I am kicking myself for doubting the last set of changes on the last day and therefore not calling out danger! in reply to DaveMc99TA
02:00:43 .@DaveMc99TA Once the final state is called by CNN, I’ll do a quick post mortem post on what I got right and what I got wrong. in reply to abulsme
02:58:36 .@DaveMc99TA Yup. Seen a few things saying overall polling error less than 2012. But pple care more when the error passes the zero line. :-) in reply to DaveMc99TA
03:14:31 Retweeted @mckaycoppins02:44:50 How long will Trump's gracious posture toward his enemies/haters endure as he watches the crowds of protesters gather outside Trump Tower?
03:44:37 Retweeted @Aaron_RS03:42:31 When it comes to Trump's cabinet consider this, he respects loyalty and the ability to execute his will above all else.
03:44:59 Retweeted @costareports03:00:42 24 hours ago, most top Rs were bracing for WH defeat. Now they're readying rollback of entire Obama presidency, push of SCOTUS to right.
03:50:32 Retweeted @Green_Footballs03:42:21 1) I understand why people are out in the streets protesting. I get that. I'm angry too. But I'd love to know how many of these people …
03:52:12 Retweeted @costareports03:06:09 Trump was quiet today because he hadn't worked on transition until now. Didn't want to "pretend" before election, as one aide put it.
04:04:22 Reading – Donald Trump’s Victory Was Built on Unique Coalition of White Voters (Confessore/Cohn) https://t.co/KTozDiTjIP
06:05:52 Retweeted @AlecMacGillis04:43:03 What if Hillary had gone on a listening tour instead of a speaking tour in '13-'14? OH, PA, NC, WI, MI, town after town. Like in upstate NY.
06:07:43 Retweeted @PeterBeinart2016-11-09 15:23:58 Only 18% of Jews voted for Trump. We voted like African Americans, Latinos + Muslims, not like other whites. Because we remember.
15:01:57 Reading – Moscow had contacts with Trump team during campaign, Russian diplomat says (Filipov/Roth) https://t.co/1CP2gyhist
20:53:45 Retweeted @B_M_Finnigan20:46:39 I'm sure the "they're all a bunch of racists!" argument is going to pay big dividends for Ds defending seats in WV IN MO MT ND OH WI PA FL
20:54:12 Retweeted @B_M_Finnigan20:50:06 In the event they don't learn from this, the Democrats could face a filibuster-proof Republican Senate in January 2019.
21:02:10 Retweeted @jeremyscahill19:51:14 The partisan Dems who gave Obama pass after pass on his hawkish policies helped create the surreal power Trump will now wield.
21:16:32 Retweeted @rafalab19:05:18 Forecaster:83% chance die roll >1
6
Pundits:Nice
Forecaster: 83% it's > 1
4
Pundits Wow
…
Forecaster: 83% it's > 1
1
Pundits:Data is dead
21:21:15 Retweeted @intlspectator19:23:45 BREAKING: Members of Trump campaign told Middle Eastern officials to ignore 'campaign rhetoric' and that actual policy will be 'different'
22:29:52 Retweeted @politicalmath22:29:32 How could Clinton have won the popular vote but not the electoral vote?
"This job requires relocation to San Francisco"
22:30:31 Retweeted @GovHowardDean22:14:46 The dems need organization and focus on the young. Need a fifty State strategy and tech rehab. I am in for chairman again.