This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Covered in Butter

We’ve almost made it! Election 2016 is finally here. In this last episode before the actual votes are tallied, Sam and Ivan start out with some updates from the Republicans Sam interviewed in May and some feedback from a listener, then jump into the campaign events of the last week, before finally discussing faithless electors and final thoughts on what is likely to happen when the votes are counted. This is it folks. We’ve made it to the end. Almost.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-11-05
Length this week – 1:53:34

  • (0:00:10-0:46:14) Updates and Feedback
    • Agenda
    • Update from Matthew
    • Update from Bruce
    • Feedback from Lenny
  • (0:047:17-1:24:20) Election 2016 – The Last Week
    • Comey Letter
    • Illegal Melania / Trump Affair
    • Secret Trump Server? (No.)
    • Russia DNC Hack
    • Last minute Trump baiting?
    • Trump on Obama heckler
    • Trump rape case
  • (1:24:59-1:53:14) Election 2016 – The Election Itself
    • Faithless WA Elector
    • Polling Update
    • House and Senate
    • Ground Game, Early Vote, Hispanic Vote
    • Clinton beating the polls?

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-04 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-04 (UTC)

  • 00:00:02 Full 4P results: CNN RV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 47% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 00:01:34 Poll Added: CNN LV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 49% https://t.co/yGsTjBVKsP
  • 00:01:39 Full 4P results: CNN LV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 49% to Johnson 5% to Stein 1%
  • 00:02:50 Poll Added: CNN RV [4] in AZ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 47% to Trump 49% https://t.co/IIUcEpHRcD
  • 00:04:34 Poll Added: CNN LV [4] in AZ from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 51% https://t.co/Lizc9GesEi
  • 00:07:27 Poll Added: CNN RV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 48% to Trump 45% https://t.co/DEqWYnojFd
  • 00:07:32 Full 4P results: CNN RV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 48% to Trump 45% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 00:09:17 Poll Added: CNN LV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 49% to Trump 47% https://t.co/MST7XbSM0w
  • 00:09:22 Full 4P results: CNN LV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 49% to Trump 47% to Johnson 3% to Stein 1%
  • 00:10:29 Poll Added: CNN RV [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 51% to Trump 48% https://t.co/2Jad15SjId
  • 00:11:44 Poll Added: CNN LV [4] in FL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 50% to Trump 49% https://t.co/jf9LeLmOAp
  • 00:15:18 Poll Added: CNN RV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 46% https://t.co/wnbXw3OIzT
  • 00:15:23 Full 3P results: CNN RV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 46% to Johnson 7%
  • 00:16:40 Poll Added: CNN LV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 49% https://t.co/iSoXmbOZ3U
  • 00:16:45 Full 3P results: CNN LV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 49% to Johnson 5%
  • 00:17:55 Poll Added: CNN RV [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 48% https://t.co/q3391k6CJj
  • 00:22:06 Poll Added: CNN LV [4] in NV from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 45% to Trump 51% https://t.co/dhL1tEyWam
  • 00:37:14 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 2.8% in NV -> Clinton by 2.2% in NH https://t.co/ZInaWdO7Rh
  • 00:44:37 Poll Added: CNN RV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% https://t.co/EEfTT6t2Yu
  • 00:44:42 Full 4P results: CNN RV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% to% to%
  • 00:46:04 Poll Added: CNN LV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 48% to Trump 44% https://t.co/cnVODm3rzB
  • 00:46:09 Full 4P results: CNN LV w/4P [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 48% to Trump 44% to% to%
  • 00:47:25 Poll Added: CNN RV [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 49% to Trump 46% https://t.co/kE2b6x81Uq
  • 00:48:43 Poll Added: CNN LV [4] in PA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 51% to Trump 46% https://t.co/7i6SAT956m
  • 01:00:54 Poll Added: Marquette RV w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 43% to Trump 37% https://t.co/gE0GgOQKMg
  • 01:00:59 Full 4P results: Marquette RV w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 43% to Trump 37% to% to%
  • 01:02:33 Poll Added: Marquette LV w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% https://t.co/qlDA7hXwF5
  • 01:02:38 Full 4P results: Marquette LV w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% to% to%
  • 01:09:19 Poll Added: Susquehana w/4P in PA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 45% to Trump 43% https://t.co/MURcdWNxiv
  • 01:09:24 Full 4P results: Susquehana w/4P in PA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 45% to Trump 43% to% to%
  • 01:20:53 Poll Added: Strategic National w/4P in MI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 44% https://t.co/GCBKoJbae0
  • 01:20:58 Full 4P results: Strategic National w/4P in MI from 2016-10-29 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 44% to% to%
  • 01:21:16 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/GCBKoJbae0
  • 01:57:11 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 235 to Trump 303 -> Clinton 219 to Trump 319 https://t.co/rVYbMlG7Rq
  • 02:04:28 Poll Added: Winthrop w/4P in VA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 39% https://t.co/ZQSJK809Fs
  • 02:04:33 Full 4P results: Winthrop w/4P in VA from 2016-10-23 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 39% to% to%
  • 02:18:31 Poll Added: MSU LV [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 52% to Trump 32% https://t.co/pV9dSSqQIk
  • 02:19:49 Poll Added: MSU LV w/4P [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 28% https://t.co/WnrSNzjaYq
  • 02:19:54 Full 4P results: MSU LV w/4P [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 28% to% to%
  • 02:21:14 Poll Added: MSU CV [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 54% to Trump 32% https://t.co/9xZafVxNWy
  • 02:22:42 Poll Added: MSU CV w/4P [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 50% to Trump 28% https://t.co/KeZSft9iQf
  • 02:22:47 Full 4P results: MSU CV w/4P [4] in MI from 2016-09-01 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 50% to Trump 28% to Johnson 9% to Stein 4%
  • 02:34:20 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/4P in KS from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 38% to Trump 49% https://t.co/FENHikEvxf
  • 02:34:25 Full 4P results: SurveyUSA w/4P in KS from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 38% to Trump 49% to Johnson 7% to Stein 1%
  • 02:55:33 Poll Added: TargetSmart w/4P in FL from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% https://t.co/03eudyp04L
  • 02:55:38 Full 4P results: TargetSmart w/4P in FL from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2%
  • 04:06:59 Poll Added: McLaughlin in NY from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-29 – Clinton 49% to Trump 38% https://t.co/OvCe1BltJD
  • 04:40:12 Finished a round of poll entry. New polls in all 50 states, DC, ME CDs, and NE-CD2. Lots of changes. @ElectionGraphs blog post soon.
  • 17:29:30 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 17:29:19 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump Surge https://t.co/EeFTryIk2O
  • 20:17:54 Starting another round of poll updates. Shortcutting a few things I’ve done in previous rounds to speed things up in the last few days.
  • 20:21:11 Poll Added: PPP w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 43% https://t.co/9uTZe0oFur
  • 20:21:16 Full 4P results: PPP w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 43% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
  • 20:22:37 Poll Added: PPP [2] in CO from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 50% to Trump 45% https://t.co/Rw4jvNC7ZF
  • 20:22:58 Clinton vs Trump state category change: CO has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/Rw4jvNC7ZF
  • 20:25:32 Poll Added: PPP w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% https://t.co/6T2yEUCxlH
  • 20:25:37 Full 4P results: PPP w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 20:27:37 Poll Added: PPP [2] in MI from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 50% to Trump 44% https://t.co/xJemtzZmI2
  • 20:31:53 Poll Added: PPP w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 43% https://t.co/UU1eW6TsgI
  • 20:31:58 Full 4P results: PPP w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 48% to Trump 43% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
  • 20:35:10 Poll Added: PPP [2] in VA from 2016-11-03 to 2016-11-04 – Clinton 51% to Trump 45% https://t.co/DizSdABFf6
  • 20:43:32 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 219 to Trump 319 -> Clinton 210 to Trump 328 https://t.co/mVutacYHFb
  • 20:45:21 Poll Added: UML LV w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 44% https://t.co/XTlMuNRVs1
  • 20:45:27 Full 4P results: UML LV w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 44% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
  • 20:47:23 Poll Added: UML RV w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 42% to Trump 43% https://t.co/ryEFqqHKBY
  • 20:47:28 Full 4P results: UML RV w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 42% to Trump 43% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 20:48:59 Poll Added: UML [3] in NH from 2016-10-28 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 44% to Trump 45% https://t.co/tdUWspHlq5
  • 20:52:11 Retweeted @foglandia 20:50:04 @ElecCollPolls come on that's absurd. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 20:53:25 .@foglandia The "best cases" for both candidates have them winning every state where they are behind by less than 5%. The extreme scenarios. in reply to foglandia
  • 20:55:21 .@foglandia The best cases are both pretty unlikely. The actual result much more likely to be closer to the "Expected" line. Now C285, T253. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 20:59:13 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in TX from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 34.5% to Trump 49.2% https://t.co/1VMCf4XiTV
  • 20:59:18 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in TX from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 34.5% to Trump 49.2% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 4.0%
  • 21:02:21 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in UT from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 19.6% to Trump 39.8% https://t.co/I4aUTlNo39
  • 21:02:26 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in UT from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 19.6% to Trump 39.8% to Johnson 3.0% to Stein 2.2%
  • 21:02:56 The Emerson UT poll also included McMullin who came in 2nd at 27.6%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 21:23:29 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 2.2% in NH -> Clinton by 1.5% in NH https://t.co/cgyv79fI1C
  • 21:28:05 Poll Added: Marist LV [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 49% https://t.co/Skw0I7gutM
  • 21:29:24 Poll Added: Marist RV [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 46% https://t.co/ujLBd2q7Pu
  • 21:30:50 Poll Added: Marist LV w/4P [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 40% to Trump 49% https://t.co/Jf72fc7Flz
  • 21:30:56 Full 4P results: Marist LV w/4P [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 40% to Trump 49% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 21:32:40 Poll Added: Marist RV w/4P [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 45% https://t.co/DhZwgCM2Wv
  • 21:32:45 Full 4P results: Marist RV w/4P [4] in TX from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 45% to Johnson 7% to Stein 3%
  • 21:37:07 Poll Added: Marist LV [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 47% https://t.co/0RYdY1pw6B
  • 21:39:06 Poll Added: Marist RV [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 46% to Trump 46% https://t.co/H9hRf0Jd7D
  • 21:42:51 Poll Added: Marist LV w/3P [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 45% https://t.co/oR3cmZmnTj
  • 21:42:56 Full 3P results: Marist LV w/3P [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 44% to Trump 45% to Johnson 8%
  • 21:44:31 Poll Added: Marist RV w/3P [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 44% https://t.co/PscSBl6vRG
  • 21:44:36 Full 3P results: Marist RV w/3P [4] in GA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 43% to Trump 44% to Johnson 10%
  • 21:47:26 Poll Added: Marist LV [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% https://t.co/oNsUS2zilG
  • 21:48:41 Poll Added: Marist RV [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 41% to Trump 45% https://t.co/G9F2GleIbY
  • 21:50:14 Poll Added: Marist LV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 40% to Trump 45% https://t.co/exawCsbtY0
  • 21:50:19 Full 4P results: Marist LV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 40% to Trump 45% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 21:51:37 Poll Added: Marist RV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39% to Trump 44% https://t.co/7Fm8vjAZ9L
  • 21:51:42 Full 4P results: Marist RV w/4P [4] in AZ from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 39% to Trump 44% to Johnson 10% to Stein 4%
  • 21:54:55 Poll Added: Mitchell w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 44% https://t.co/QoY69A4kYB
  • 21:55:00 Full 4P results: Mitchell w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 47% to Trump 44% to Johnson 4% to Stein 3%
  • 21:56:07 Poll Added: Mitchell [2] in MI from 2016-11-02 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 51% to Trump 46% https://t.co/ACOOxpLDqo
  • 21:56:26 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MI has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/ACOOxpLDqo
  • 22:00:26 Retweeted @hacker4u2k15 21:34:42 @ElecCollPolls trump have a chance to win?
  • 22:01:08 .@hacker4u2k15 See my post from earlier today. I have added a few polls since then, but overall picture the same. https://t.co/uVqKpuJdbW in reply to hacker4u2k15
  • 22:15:07 Poll Added: Gravis [2] in PA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 51% to Trump 49% https://t.co/1l4DYmvuNn
  • 22:16:25 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 47% to Trump 46% https://t.co/k0RfZJyP4j
  • 22:16:30 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 47% to Trump 46% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2%
  • 22:19:30 Poll Added: Gravis [2] in FL from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 51% to Trump 49% https://t.co/HP011uvaF1
  • 22:20:37 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 49% to Trump 46% https://t.co/KDoGeaZ3Kg
  • 22:20:42 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-10-31 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 49% to Trump 46% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
  • 22:22:49 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 210 to Trump 328 -> Clinton 226 to Trump 312 https://t.co/MIBnCzABG9
  • 22:24:45 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in UT from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 31% to Trump 37% https://t.co/loY4G7mdUB
  • 22:24:50 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in UT from 2016-10-30 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 31% to Trump 37% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
  • 22:25:16 Monmouth also included McMullin in that Utah poll. He came in 3rd at 24%. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 22:30:19 Poll Added: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 41.80% to Trump 42.20% https://t.co/q7BaXuAyI4
  • 22:30:24 Full 4P results: Suffolk w/4P in NH from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 41.80% to Trump 42.20% to Johnson 5.40% to Stein 2.20%
  • 22:32:55 Poll Added: ARG w/4P in NH from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 43% to Trump 48% https://t.co/mKuet37vHl
  • 22:33:00 Full 4P results: ARG w/4P in NH from 2016-10-31 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 43% to Trump 48% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
  • 22:37:21 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 45.0% https://t.co/8yaBWZdiq1
  • 22:37:26 Full 4P results: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-11-01 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 45.0% to Johnson 2.6% to Stein 1.1%
  • 22:37:44 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/8yaBWZdiq1
  • 22:43:20 Poll Added: WBUR w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 38% to Trump 38% https://t.co/BHjpregxwM
  • 22:43:25 Full 4P results: WBUR w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 38% to Trump 38% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
  • 22:44:41 Poll Added: WBUR w/Lean w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 39% to Trump 40% https://t.co/1xKldiAB2o
  • 22:44:46 Full 4P results: WBUR w/Lean w/4P [3] in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-02 – Clinton 39% to Trump 40% to Johnson 10% to Stein 3%
  • 22:45:48 Poll Added: WBUR [3] in NH from 2016-10-29 to 2016-11-01 – Clinton 42% to Trump 44% https://t.co/2E6wdqPT5f
  • 22:46:06 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/2E6wdqPT5f
  • 23:02:44 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 1.5% in NH -> Clinton by 1.3% in FL https://t.co/RYmWi0afI6
  • 23:02:44 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 285 to Trump 253 -> Clinton 314 to Trump 224 https://t.co/RYmWi0afI6
  • 23:13:56 Added results to the 10ths place where available for the Mitchell polls in MI. No significant change to current avg. https://t.co/ZRf2QGNITE
  • 23:22:58 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 314 to Trump 224 -> Clinton 310 to Trump 228 https://t.co/MIruX0cuUd

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-04 (UTC)