Abulsme.com: Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-01 (UTC)

00:51:38 Retweeted @iiPracticalJoke 00:36:47 @abulsme @ElectionGraphs I see WI is moving alot, any chance that there might be a big shift toward Trump?
00:56:19 .@iiPracticalJoke @abulsme Wisconsin has actually been pretty stable for the past few months. No strong trend.вЂ¦ https://t.co/o7YxgGLb0A in reply to iiPracticalJoke
01:01:18 Retweeted @iiPracticalJoke 00:58:15 @ElectionGraphs @abulsme I guess I just haven't seen it below 6% in awhile. in reply to ElectionGraphs
01:02:44 .@iiPracticalJoke @abulsme In the last weeks there have been individual polls from C+1% to C+15%. Big range. Ignore them and watch the avg. in reply to iiPracticalJoke
01:04:44 .@iiPracticalJoke @abulsme Oh, and current avg is on the Trump end of the range, but still within range it has been in. No breakout. in reply to ElectionGraphs
18:09:51 Election Graph’s proprietor @abulsme has taken off from the day job from now until Election Day, so time to dive into the deluge of pollsвЂ¦
18:15:31 Uh, of course that should be Election Graphs’ proprietor. Oh well. Now on to looking for new polls. See updates over at @ElecCollPolls. in reply to ElectionGraphs

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-01 (UTC)

18:10:03 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:09:51 Election Graph’s proprietor @abulsme has taken off from the day job from now until Election Day, so time to dive into the deluge of pollsвЂ¦
18:15:50 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:15:31 Uh, of course that should be Election Graphs’ proprietor. Oh well. Now on to looking for new polls. See updates over at @ElecCollPolls. in reply to ElectionGraphs
18:33:51 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 38% to Trump 52% https://t.co/Ez1TuHCMkw
18:33:56 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-31 – Clinton 38% to Trump 52% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
18:34:16 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MO has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/Ez1TuHCMkw
18:49:09 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in VA from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49.1% to Trump 44.8% https://t.co/onYJhE3NX0
18:49:14 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in VA from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49.1% to Trump 44.8% to Johnson 3.1% to Stein 0.7%
18:52:36 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in IL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 53.4% to Trump 41.3% https://t.co/1Kr4IaHcmu
18:52:41 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in IL from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 53.4% to Trump 41.3% to Johnson 1.9% to Stein 1.0%
18:56:58 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 46.2% to Trump 42.3% https://t.co/zlsx6aTaXX
18:57:03 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 46.2% to Trump 42.3% to Johnson 5.2% to Stein 1.4%
19:01:33 Poll Added: WaPo w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 48% to Trump 42% https://t.co/qpyJUlRvpU
19:01:38 Full 4P results: WaPo w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 48% to Trump 42% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
19:04:03 Poll Added: WaPo [2] in VA from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 51% to Trump 45% https://t.co/aeVHvo4LeO
19:07:39 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in PA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 44% https://t.co/XBCcMCvH3P
19:07:44 Full 4P results: Gravis w/4P in PA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 44% to Johnson 3% to Stein 2%
19:08:03 Clinton vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/XBCcMCvH3P
19:33:34 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.3% in PA -> Clinton by 4.9% in PA https://t.co/hLLCu6N6kV
19:33:35 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 272 to Trump 266 -> Clinton 252 to Trump 286 https://t.co/hLLCu6N6kV
20:00:47 Poll Added: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-10-23 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 41.2% https://t.co/3revIoFSsf
20:00:53 Full 3P results: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-10-23 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 41.2% to Johnson 2.6%
20:12:19 Poll Added: F&M LV [2] in PA from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49% to Trump 38% https://t.co/XXlAIecOos
20:12:39 Clinton vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/XXlAIdVcZS
20:14:15 Poll Added: F&M RV [2] in PA from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49% to Trump 37% https://t.co/k8yVMZBdQI
20:32:56 Note those F&M results in PA also included Johnson (4% LV, 5% RV) and Stein (2% LV, 2% RV).
20:42:59 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 4.9% in PA -> Clinton by 5.8% in WI https://t.co/BN9dQiypyk
20:42:59 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 252 to Trump 286 -> Clinton 272 to Trump 266 https://t.co/BN9dQiypyk
20:50:33 Poll Added: Dixie w/4P in TX from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-29 – Clinton 39.39% to Trump 51.53% https://t.co/ZtHZTQkxam
20:50:38 Full 4P results: Dixie w/4P in TX from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-29 – Clinton 39.39% to Trump 51.53% to Johnson 2.96% to Stein 0.31%
20:51:00 Clinton vs Trump state category change: TX has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/ZtHZTQkxam
20:55:07 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 40.9% to Trump 30.5% https://t.co/E1HjUGHKB3
20:57:21 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 47.3% to Trump 40.0% https://t.co/1SZZtdiuCY
20:58:41 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 37.2% https://t.co/EzF6MOgjHi
20:58:46 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 37.2% to Johnson 8.6% to Stein 3.7%
20:59:08 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-All has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/EzF6MOgjHi
21:01:57 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 28.1% https://t.co/LGEfc2HhoY
21:04:03 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 51.0% to Trump 36.9% https://t.co/A16R7khcGC
21:21:36 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 33.4% https://t.co/ZqaskqEoPu
21:21:41 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 33.4% to Johnson 8.9% to Stein 4.0%
21:24:43 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 33.2% https://t.co/oWo8PsBOJM
21:26:36 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 43.4% https://t.co/qLzEo6eAba
21:28:28 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 38.0% to Trump 41.4% https://t.co/c2BbOwD3pV
21:28:33 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-24 to 2016-10-25 – Clinton 38.0% to Trump 41.4% to Johnson 8.4% to Stein 3.4%
21:31:40 Poll Added: Loras w/4P in IL from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 45% to Trump 34% https://t.co/qvmbEtW4uq
21:31:45 Full 4P results: Loras w/4P in IL from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 45% to Trump 34% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
21:39:31 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/PC6H7a5q0Y
21:39:37 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
21:41:54 Poll Added: Emerson w/4P in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49% to Trump 43% https://t.co/RcOiNFVV5y
21:41:59 Full 4P results: Emerson w/4P in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-28 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 49% to Trump 43% to Johnson 4% to Stein 0%
21:46:21 Poll Added: Monmouth w/3P in IN from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 39% to Trump 50% https://t.co/XKCX9Fgl3A
21:46:26 Full 3P results: Monmouth w/3P in IN from 2016-10-27 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 39% to Trump 50% to Johnson 4%
21:46:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/XKCX9Fgl3A
21:50:59 Poll Added: Remington w/3P in PA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 43% https://t.co/SQS8Yfq6pX
21:51:04 Full 3P results: Remington w/3P in PA from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 43% to Johnson 3%
22:12:22 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.8% in WI -> Clinton by 5.8% in PA https://t.co/QLUEFP8Wsf
22:19:32 Poll Added: Remington w/3P in NC from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 47% https://t.co/B0JOy0M9Ag
22:19:37 Full 3P results: Remington w/3P in NC from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 47% to Johnson 2%
22:23:02 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/3P in GA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 42% to Trump 49% https://t.co/Tr1MHXvFzN
22:23:07 Full 3P results: SurveyUSA w/3P in GA from 2016-10-25 to 2016-10-27 – Clinton 42% to Trump 49% to Johnson 3%
22:25:17 Poll Added: Remington w/3P in CO from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 44% https://t.co/wA0QQi17jh
22:25:22 Full 3P results: Remington w/3P in CO from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 44% to Johnson 4%
22:57:20 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.8% in PA -> Clinton by 5.8% in CO https://t.co/Bc2PmtHATx
23:03:21 Poll Added: WMUR w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 38% https://t.co/TCJNolDjdk
23:03:26 Full 4P results: WMUR w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 45% to Trump 38% to Johnson 6% to Stein 1%
23:05:06 Poll Added: WMUR w/Lean w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 46% to Trump 39% https://t.co/Rykk1AiqPi
23:05:11 Full 4P results: WMUR w/Lean w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-10-26 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 46% to Trump 39% to Johnson 6% to Stein 1%
23:07:23 Poll Added: Remington w/3P in NV from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 48% https://t.co/Nz5tseDPe2
23:07:28 Full 3P results: Remington w/3P in NV from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 48% to Johnson 4%
23:07:49 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NV has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/Nz5tseDPe2
23:41:52 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 300 to Trump 238 -> Clinton 294 to Trump 244 https://t.co/8B6JR1NYuW
23:44:50 Poll Added: Mitchell w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 41% https://t.co/Q7Ic9ZPLN5
23:44:55 Full 4P results: Mitchell w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 47% to Trump 41% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
23:46:02 Poll Added: Mitchell [2] in MI from 2016-10-30 to 2016-10-30 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 42% https://t.co/4koOAZNljN

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-01 (UTC)

01:43:26 Retweeted @AlGiordano 01:37:52 CNN the past 72 hours:
Pundits: "OMG EMAILS SOMETHING."

John King: "Electoral College map has no path for Trump."

Pundits: "BUT EMAILS."
04:58:04 Reading – Debunking Trump's "secret server" (@ErrataRob) https://t.co/vaqg0ioRNq
05:10:48 Reading – A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Trump (David Corn) https://t.co/PAib5bjA50
15:03:04 I probably could have come up with 10-20 things for the Clinton side, but stillвЂ¦ -> Making the Choice (Gabriel Roth) https://t.co/tqpS6p1y0F
15:20:39 [Blog Post] Fred Bear and Medusa https://t.co/REwt8kvN1B
17:08:48 Reading the article that other article was debunking – Server registered to Trump communicating with Russia? (Foer) https://t.co/DFzMS975Cl
17:10:33 Retweeted @jbview 17:08:48 Good thread on differences between RCP and HuffPollster, and why they can't be resolved. https://t.co/20pmW5d8LS
17:33:09 Less technical debunk -> That story about Trump's secret server for talking to Russia doesn't add up (@binarybits) https://t.co/KosGlM9Hrn
17:41:51 Retweeted @Scout_Finch 16:52:17 In other words, he threw away his vote. Ohio doesn't tally write-in votes for candidates who are not registered. https://t.co/SyJW1xmnKY
17:45:32 Retweeted @ryanbeckwith 16:40:27 Don’t mix those two up https://t.co/yXQioSPLCG
18:10:17 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:09:51 Election Graph’s proprietor @abulsme has taken off from the day job from now until Election Day, so time to dive into the deluge of pollsвЂ¦
18:15:43 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 18:15:31 Uh, of course that should be Election Graphs’ proprietor. Oh well. Now on to looking for new polls. See updates over at @ElecCollPolls. in reply to ElectionGraphs
18:20:19 Retweeted @MileHighBrendan 17:59:53 @RadioFreeTom @smsaideman @YoungGreedo One wouldn’t expect Trump to gain 4% nationally but 0% in, say, NC. It’s possible but unlikely. in reply to MileHighBrendan
18:23:02 .@MileHighBrendan @RadioFreeTom @smsaideman @YoungGreedo Happens though. See NC & OH moving opposite directions.вЂ¦ https://t.co/x1YmnG0Wyj in reply to MileHighBrendan
21:42:53 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 21:42:27 538 lags all the other forecasts RT @jshkatz: Clinton win chances over the past three months, forecast by forecast https://t.co/oxFAKJUNyK
22:32:51 Listening to The Axe Files with David Axelrod Ep. 92 – Carl Hulse
via iCatcher! https://t.co/NIQHxVeGKd
23:57:57 Retweeted @jameslsutter 21:13:05 Imagine if Frodo was all "Sauron's bad, but Gandalf's done some morally gray stuff, too, so I'll stay home."
Don't get eaten by orcs. Vote.