Abulsme.com: October 2016

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-14 (UTC)

06:26:41 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 06:26:30 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump drop continues (mostly) https://t.co/7UT0M0f9dl

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-14 (UTC)

00:00:08 Listening to Common Sense with Dan Carlin Show 310 – Or Else
via iCatcher! https://t.co/byonLViho7
00:44:31 Retweeted @jbarro 00:28:32 This speech will make it harder for Republican pols to distance from Trump. "Oh, so you're with Obama?"
This is his objective. in reply to jbarro
00:46:32 Retweeted @NerdyWonka 00:25:30 Melania Trump: How dare she say I said hi. I never said hi
Everyone: So everything else in her article is true?

https://t.co/7m70bi2AGt
00:47:53 Retweeted @chrislhayes 00:29:24 Fascinating. Obama now making the case that Clinton has explicitly rejected: that Trump is a natural continuation of the GOP.
00:48:06 Retweeted @eilperin 00:29:21 "So don't act like this started w @realDonaldTrump . He did take it to another level. I'll give him credit," @POTUS to Republicans
00:51:45 Retweeted @chrisgeidner 00:26:30 In 1994 Donald Trump interview, they walk about his views on women: https://t.co/q6cE5mO9zX https://t.co/3G6l8QNNPP
00:53:20 Retweeted @KateBlackDC 2016-10-12 20:26:42 Trump supporters: We're using #RepealThe19th in response to math showing women can decide this election.
Women: SoвЂ¦ https://t.co/TgceZ93hKw
01:18:24 Retweeted @SnoCo_DEM 00:51:19 It's wet, windy, & getting dark, just STAY HOME. If you must go out tonight/tomorrow check county roads closures at https://t.co/fQyNvWiWPk
01:18:40 Retweeted @jbarro 2016-10-13 00:43:25 Has there ever been a bigger dumbfuck campaign strategy than making it about sexual assault when you've been groping women for decades?
01:29:09 Retweeted @LATSeema 01:23:44 Press at Trump evening rally getting escorted to motorcade under watch of cops in riot gear, per pool. This is getting increasingly scary.
01:50:18 Retweeted @NoahGrayCNN 01:49:33 That's not what the pool note said. The motorcade was under watch of police in riot gear, not the press. https://t.co/U9d9s0lbC1
01:54:11 Retweeted @EdEspinoza 01:47:39 The iOS 10 is frustrating on many levels. It's like @Apple is reminding us that, yes, Steve Jobs is dead. And is never coming back.
02:06:16 Retweeted @natemcdermott 01:41:49 The best part of this video is unquestionably @BrookeBCNN's reactions (via @cafedotcom) https://t.co/WHm56KhzS7
02:13:45 Retweeted @jdelreal 01:17:54 The vitriol toward the media here is as bad as I've ever seen it. Boos and cursing and middle fingers as soon as trвЂ¦ https://t.co/8WLwlOE91u
03:40:56 Retweeted @JesseLaGreca 03:40:16 Today Team Clownstick spent whole news cycle explaining to women why sexual assault is okay sometimes
Good fucking job, GOP primary voters
03:48:17 Retweeted @JanieVelencia 2016-10-11 00:52:00 Here’s how Trump’s current polling compares to where Mitt Romney stood at this point. https://t.co/QMfwascxLO https://t.co/3o0aGYn2as
03:49:33 Retweeted @jbarro 03:45:53 Only 1,482 days until Election Day 2020.
04:01:28 Retweeted @mjblair 2016-10-13 12:51:40 "Weird how all these women waited to come forward until they realized they weren't alone, it wasn't their fault, and we might believe them."
04:12:21 Retweeted @ScottGreenfield 2016-10-13 18:14:09 Never forget the greatest lawyer letter ever. https://t.co/1VB2VlTj8Y
04:13:57 Retweeted @davidfrum 2016-10-10 16:40:48 The NYTimes and Washington Post told you the truth about Trump. Fox News and talk radio lied to you. You might keep that in mind in future
04:14:26 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 04:10:33 Hillary is closer to winning Arizona, Georgia, Utah, or Texas than Trump is to winning Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania.
04:18:38 Oops -> Ken Bone Forgot To Delete His Reddit Porn Comments (William Turton) https://t.co/ceTpFL6vNy
04:29:24 Retweeted @TheRickyDavila 03:03:52 I literally have no words. I don't know how @donlemon keeps his cool. #NeverTrump #CNN #StrongerTogether https://t.co/JfWp5Vy2No
04:58:35 Retweeted @Stefan_BC 2016-10-13 06:11:24 I'm guessing Ted Cruz is regretting hiring an intern to do his oppo https://t.co/9KAy8T1rNi
05:03:17 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 00:47:04 Tomorrow's front page takes a break from Trump's sexual assault scandals to focus on how he lied about donating toвЂ¦ https://t.co/oRQILF9TWc
05:11:16 Retweeted @DoubleJake 2016-10-13 14:15:00 Wait what https://t.co/2u5o4lbRhR
06:25:52 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Trump drop continues (mostly) https://t.co/kbWXz8NykZ
15:13:50 Retweeted @NWSSeattle 14:56:28 Storm cell in King County has weakened. No longer expecting hail – but torrential rainfall, lightning, gusty wind possible. #wawx #Seattle
16:57:42 Retweeted @ktumulty 16:50:51 EXCLUSIVE: Woman says Trump reached under her skirt and groped her in early 1990s – The Washington Post https://t.co/aUMLUvDi2z
17:29:00 Retweeted @mattyglesias 13:13:43 Who speaks German? I don't quite get this Bild headline. https://t.co/LwKdQqkTvY
18:48:47 Listening to Slate's Live at Politics and Prose Arlie Russell Hochschild: Live at Politics & Prose
via iCatcher! https://t.co/ZPqG9h7Vaa
19:14:03 Facepalm -> Trump Blames Mexican Billionaire Carlos Slim For Sexual Misconduct Stories (Matt Shuham) https://t.co/kGSwHaMBGA
19:15:40 Retweeted @JohnJHarwood 18:59:08 Trump on Obama: "Why doesn't some woman say what they say about me about him?"
19:18:37 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 19:18:14 Obama War Powers letter on Yemen strike https://t.co/yfveQ5XGIb
20:16:02 Retweeted @joshtpm 20:05:09 Trumps Tells Crowd He Saw Clinton's Behind During the Debate and "I Wasn't Impressed, Believe Me" https://t.co/qDsXRIjrps via @TPM
21:19:03 Reading – Major Windstorm, Tornadoes, and Much More (Cliff Mass) https://t.co/Kko5CvxJdr
21:24:35 Important-> The Thing All Women Do That You Don't Know About (Gretchen Kelly) https://t.co/auw8hmxF1r?
21:39:53 Retweeted @dandrezner 21:39:23 This is fine. https://t.co/70HbIY2Gqj
21:42:27 Retweeted @KellyannePolls 21:41:42 That was me! I was there… https://t.co/t0w3w7H0PA
21:42:57 Retweeted @AlanMCole 21:41:50 [Trump Tower]
"What if we ran with a witness who was, by his own account, a child sex trafficker?"
"Yes, great idea, let's go with that!"
21:47:39 Reading – Trump camp puts forward witness to refute sex assault claim (Daniel Halper) https://t.co/RobYZbcDvI
21:49:56 Retweeted @growf 21:41:41 @Bencjacobs Gilberthorpe? Ask Private Eye about him: https://t.co/now0C25lnM in reply to Bencjacobs
21:50:13 Retweeted @morningmoneyben 21:45:09 Permanent convo in Trump tower:
"What's the stupidest and most disgusting thing we can do?"
"Whatever it is let's do something way worse."
21:54:37 Retweeted @randileeharper 20:23:40 ken bone is classier than any single one of the journalists writing about him. https://t.co/iDZjQASUOR
22:03:41 Retweeted @xeni 21:36:50 Female Trump spox on CNN: "We don't need another president that's gonna have affairs in the Oval Office" As a reason not to vote for Hillary
22:25:34 Retweeted @chrislhayes 21:39:39 Do we have any polling yet that's post NYT story and other accusers?
22:25:38 Retweeted @PollsterPatrick 22:13:53 @chrislhayes Not entirely. But our Indiana poll out today found Trump +7 before Thus and Clinton +2 after in reply to chrislhayes
22:33:02 Retweeted @CandaceSmith_ 22:11:02 A campaign aide confirms that @nypost story is what Trump/Pence were referring to when they mentioned evidence to refute accusers' claims
22:36:58 Retweeted @CNBCnow 22:28:55 BREAKING: CIA preparing for possible cyber strike against Russia amid alleged election interference – @NBCNews https://t.co/L5of7OMxgU
22:37:10 Retweeted @joshtpm 22:31:41 Clearly the extreme vetting isn't part of the campaign phase for Trump.
22:37:44 Retweeted @OKnox 22:31:30 I see operational security remains somewhat sub-optimal https://t.co/pnS09Q9RYs
22:51:17 Retweeted @kurteichenwald 22:38:09 Whether Trump's witness proves to be a nut or not, Trump just confessed he was on that plane beside that woman by putting the man forward.
22:54:19 Retweeted @JenniferJJacobs 22:38:02 Man in NY Post story is just one of the witnesses, aide tells me. The campaign "doing due diligence. More witnesses are stepping forward."
23:16:00 Reading – The Era of Women (Scott Adams) https://t.co/JBEfGuSQOe
23:17:41 Retweeted @tedfrank 21:54:08 If you had "GOP candidate rolls out pimp for gay pedophiles to rebut claim of sexual assault" in the headline pool, 2016 is your lucky year.
23:21:07 Retweeted @DCCyclone 22:46:53 A decade from now @ppppolls will find only 9% of respondents say they voted for @realDonaldTrump, b/c almost all too ashamed to admit it.
23:21:29 Retweeted @jbarro 23:03:23 I don't think the Trump camp failed to vet this guy. I think they think truth is irrelevant & this lets them shout the story was "debunked."
23:21:33 Retweeted @leahmcelrath 23:08:39 Ditto.
Trump's supporters are literally shouting "we don't care!" in unison at his rallies in re sexual allegations. https://t.co/lbxVlTO2Fh
23:26:32 Reading – Trump accuser says she is leaving country (Joe Capozzi) https://t.co/dZutZdg2lJ
23:28:47 Retweeted @eliasisquith 22:59:00 Stop saying the election is bad or ugly or depressing or gross. It's not; Donald Trump and those who support him are. It's them. It's them
23:34:18 Retweeted @Morning_Joe 21:00:02 Post-debate poll: Women support for Trump drops
https://t.co/kPK02mOCU9 https://t.co/lp3u7H0Cb5
23:34:47 Retweeted @chrislhayes 22:29:44 I mean, at this point, what the hell is that third debate even going to be?
23:35:03 Retweeted @AtticusGF 23:03:08 Wow, @ErinBurnett has another apprentice contestant that says:
1) Trump kissed her unexpectedly.
2) She's still voting for Trump.
23:40:34 Retweeted @AndrewHusband 23:30:02 Fairly impressed neither CNN, Fox News nor MSNBC are carrying Trump Charlotte rally uncut.
23:42:34 Retweeted @SwiftOnSecurity 23:31:46 There is no effort to refute these women. There is only a smokescreen to convince supporters that knowable truth does not exist. Dangerous. in reply to SwiftOnSecurity
23:54:55 Retweeted @SwiftOnSecurity 23:30:52 Today Washington Post found a woman through rumors, and had to convince her to speak. She didn't reach out. Was scared. Now she's a target. in reply to SwiftOnSecurity

Electoral College: Trump drop continues (mostly)

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states, DC, and the Maine congressional districts

Notable changes in: Arizona, Indiana, Maine (CD2), and the tipping point

National Summary

At this point we have many polls that are fully or partially after the “Trump Tape” release on the 7th, but this batch of polls still included many where most of the time in the field was before that. And of course the state averages here are based on at least the last five polls in each state, so reach even further back in time. The close states tend to be based on polls with middates going back 1-3 weeks.

All that is to say that the changes we are seeing now are starting to include the fallout from that event, but haven’t yet fully factored it in.

With that out of the way, the changes for this round:

The expected result moves from Clinton by 176 EV to Clinton by 154 EV
The tipping point moves from Clinton by 5.9% in MN to Clinton by 6.5% in PA
Clinton’s best case improves from winning by 202 EV to winning by 226 EV

So wait, the expected result moved toward Trump! Why is the title of this post about Trump’s drop continuing?

Well, basically because the improvement in the expected case is a result of Arizona moving from just barely Clinton, to just barely Trump. Either way it is really too close to call. It may flip back again with the next update. Or maybe it won’t.

But meanwhile, polling changes in Minnesota, Virginia, and Pennsylvania moved the tipping point further toward Clinton, meaning that overall Trump has to move polls even further in order to actually flip the results of the election.

And Clinton expanded her best case a bit as well.

Here are the charts:

The trend in both charts is clear. After peaking right before the 1st debate Trump has been falling. This is more dramatic in the tipping point chart, but it is clear no matter which way you look at the race.

There is no time left for a Trump comeback from behind win from these levels. It would take something massive that would completely reverse everything we know about this race so far. It would be an unprecedented reversal. Impossible? No. Incredibly unlikely? Yes.

A few weeks ago Trump had managed to make this race close. But it was short-lived. Starting with the debate he has been dropping steadily. We don’t yet have signs that we have hit bottom either. There have been new negative stories about Trump almost every day. Further drops would not be surprising.

We’re no longer really talking about who will win this election. Clinton will win this election. The only question is by how much.

25.8 days left until we have the first actual election results.

State Details

Weak Clinton to Weak Trump

The latest polls not only move Arizona from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump, but since older polls were added, they actually moved the past curve Trumpward, such that we no longer have a recent period with Clinton in the lead at all. The trend has still been away from Trump toward Clinton since the 1st debate, but Clinton hasn’t pulled Arizona over to her side quite yet.

Moving into Clinton’s reach

Trump’s lead in Indiana has been diminishing since late August. With the latest updates Trump is up 4.8%. Trump still leads, but it is now close enough that a Clinton win does not seem impossible. Still a stretch to be sure, but no longer unimaginable.

Maine’s 2nd congressional district had looked like it would definitely split from the state this cycle giving Trump a somewhat unusual pickup. With the post-debate polls, Trump still leads, but his lead is slipping, and so it now seems that this single electoral vote is now up for grabs. Clinton could steal it back.

States that moved the tipping point

For more informationвЂ¦

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

19:30:51 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 19:30:22 A round of poll entry complete. All 50 states, DC, and ME congressional districts. Blog post over at @ElectionGraphs coming later.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

04:31:55 Poll Added: CVoter in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.8% to Trump 38.6% https://t.co/7wqQX4Noji
04:37:37 Poll Added: CVoter in SC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 52.6% https://t.co/MbIFbb35Bh
04:42:05 Poll Added: CVoter in SD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 53.7% https://t.co/hveoBozZeH
04:45:08 Poll Added: CVoter in TN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.3% to Trump 55.2% https://t.co/q0OYshl3yQ
04:48:15 Poll Added: CVoter in TX from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.3% to Trump 53.0% https://t.co/mPVETpLpbV
04:54:03 Poll Added: CVoter in UT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 29.7% to Trump 64.2% https://t.co/zrp83LlOrt
04:57:40 Poll Added: CVoter in VT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 62.2% to Trump 33.3% https://t.co/LKUC4uNKQX
05:02:20 Poll Added: CVoter in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 46.8% https://t.co/3LK8Dr6b9F
05:05:46 Poll Added: CVoter in WA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 53.4% to Trump 41.7% https://t.co/WcPmmuMv5n
05:07:49 Poll Added: CVoter in DC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 80.3% to Trump 13.9% https://t.co/09qmyGnGy5
05:10:52 Poll Added: CVoter in WV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 57.7% https://t.co/PdwwDQwFKN
05:14:21 Poll Added: CVoter in WI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 45.6% https://t.co/PLSVC63b7i
05:14:38 Clinton vs Trump state category change: WI has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/PLSVC63b7i
05:17:16 Poll Added: CVoter in WY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.7% to Trump 63.0% https://t.co/MEHGrZABP1
06:06:29 Poll Added: BWCRI [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 48.1% to Trump 37.6% https://t.co/0ZsofSz58R
06:08:44 Poll Added: BWCRI w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.4% https://t.co/pWViBREWYO
06:08:49 Full 4P results: BWCRI w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.4% to Johnson 9.5% to Stein 2.7%
06:16:24 Poll Added: Detroit News w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 30.6% https://t.co/3JZuXqLT37
06:16:29 Full 4P results: Detroit News w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 42.2% to Trump 30.6% to Johnson 10.3% to Stein 4.6%
06:18:49 Poll Added: Detroit News [2] in MI from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 47% to Trump 33% https://t.co/Wo2ADdntKg
06:28:04 Poll Added: PPP in NV from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 47% to Trump 43% https://t.co/9AQZ2WZk9k
06:35:55 Poll Added: PPP in NH from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48% to Trump 37% https://t.co/JZ1g2EfwDP
06:44:49 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.4% to Trump 29.9% https://t.co/Hrhgj4KhOV
06:46:50 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.8% to Trump 40.1% https://t.co/CMgeP37smh
06:48:46 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 36.1% https://t.co/Zuvdu6yezc
06:48:51 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 36.1% to Johnson 8.8% to Stein 2.9%
07:15:41 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 27.6% https://t.co/zTlUfQSfa6
07:18:00 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.8% to Trump 35.7% https://t.co/EfJEXsv4Sa
07:19:37 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/BYbVw1VVqr
07:19:42 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 32.3% to Johnson 7.3% to Stein 3.4%
07:22:20 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/5qAnvumWdk
07:24:38 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.4% to Trump 45.0% https://t.co/M22WhqhxOA
07:26:07 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 40.4% https://t.co/XPoGomPScF
07:26:12 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 40.4% to Johnson 10.4% to Stein 2.4%
07:26:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-CD2 has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/XPoGomygO5
07:47:43 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 381 to Trump 157 -> Clinton 382 to Trump 156 https://t.co/DPqeyId1XB
18:10:34 Poll Added: Marquette [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 45% to Trump 40% https://t.co/XMBpj4wKJR
18:13:24 Poll Added: Marquette w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41% to Trump 35% https://t.co/Hqq4TJiLFj
18:13:29 Full 4P results: Marquette w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41% to Trump 35% to Johnson 11% to Stein 3%
18:15:22 Poll Added: Marquette LV [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% https://t.co/9UgxOagnhq
18:17:06 Poll Added: Marquette LV w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 37% https://t.co/j3CjzJt1Cr
18:17:11 Full 4P results: Marquette LV w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 37% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
18:21:10 Poll Added: Marquette LV Thu w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 40% to Trump 41% https://t.co/6VnYmZaoQZ
18:21:15 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Thu w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-06 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 40% to Trump 41% to Johnson 9% to Stein 3%
18:23:16 Poll Added: Marquette LV Fri w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/VNgXllXAsD
18:23:21 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Fri w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-07 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 8% to Stein 2%
18:25:55 Poll Added: Marquette LV Sat/Sun w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-08 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49% to Trump 30% https://t.co/9jKz477de8
18:26:01 Full 4P results: Marquette LV Sat/Sun w/4P [7] in WI from 2016-10-08 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49% to Trump 30% to Johnson 9% to Stein 5%
18:35:14 Poll Added: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.1% https://t.co/9TmDIkErbw
18:35:19 Full 4P results: Opinion Savvy w/4P in FL from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.1% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 0.8%
18:38:42 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% https://t.co/7NY6hnBtLb
18:38:47 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
18:43:01 Poll Added: Y2 Analytics w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 26% to Trump 26% https://t.co/ydzKcKmAgY
18:43:06 Full 3P results: Y2 Analytics w/3P in UT from 2016-10-10 to 2016-10-11 – Clinton 26% to Trump 26% to Johnson 14%
18:45:02 Note that Y2 poll also had McMullin at 22%. If more polls show him that close, @ElectionGraphs has a lot of work to doвЂ¦ in reply to ElecCollPolls
19:18:11 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 45% to Trump 36% https://t.co/8uCTix5Ky5
19:30:22 A round of poll entry complete. All 50 states, DC, and ME congressional districts. Blog post over at @ElectionGraphs coming later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-13 (UTC)

00:13:28 Retweeted @TrueFactsStated 00:12:05 Drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip drip flush.
00:13:43 Retweeted @deirdrewalshcnn 00:12:26 Ohio GOP Chair said yesterday on CNN he asked Trump in phone call after Fri tape if any more allegations coming and Trump told him no
00:14:00 Retweeted @aravosis 00:12:17 All of Trump's surrogates have done a 180. They're all now ripping the credibility of the women making the allegations against Trump.
00:14:07 Retweeted @aseitzwald 00:12:11 .@LisaBloom on with @chrislhayes: "Rest assured, there are going to be many many more."
01:34:49 Retweeted @ObsoleteDogma 00:48:12 Here’s a list ofвЂ”I thinkвЂ”all the Trump allegations from the past 24 hours https://t.co/TlQSVgduKz
01:36:31 Retweeted @ericheggie 2016-10-12 22:54:12 The women who came forward are incredibly brave for doing so. Don't envy what they are about to go through.
01:38:17 Retweeted @MichaelSkolnik 01:32:05 Read ALL the responses. Sending my deepest amount of love to every women who has the courage to tell their story anвЂ¦ https://t.co/OaqfFisEMK
01:38:26 Retweeted @B_M_Finnigan 01:04:03 This is still not the worst it gets. There are weeks left to go.
01:45:52 Good -> Hillary Clinton to Panicked Republicans: You’re on Your Own (Brian Beutler) https://t.co/JNJatwjhQF
01:46:24 Retweeted @MaureenShaw 2016-10-12 23:44:07 For those who want to #repealthe19th don't forget to vote on November 28!
02:10:49 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 02:10:29 Well done, GOP. https://t.co/YO87B6gXjW
02:31:20 Retweeted @neilhimself 02:31:08 I just remembered that I liked Twitter better in the days before I thought of it as the 'Oh Dear God What Has Donald Trump Done Now' place.
03:02:12 Retweeted @petersuderman 03:01:59 Good thing Trump stanched the bleeding at the debate.
03:03:11 OMFG -> Physically Attacked by Donald Trump вЂ“ A PEOPLE Writer’s Own Harrowing Story (Natasha Stoynoff) https://t.co/khZEL8K0tz
03:03:56 Retweeted @JoeMuto 03:03:41 Remember when the absolute worst thing about the GOP candidate was that he made his dog ride on the roof of the car once?
Good times.
03:21:54 Retweeted @paleofuture 03:21:43 We need a fucking monument with the name of every politician who has ever supported Donald Trump chiseled into it so that we never forget
04:12:01 Watching – Hitler Finds Out Trump is a Serial Sexual Assaulter (RINO Pundit) https://t.co/8Mp11aJfDn
04:23:48 Retweeted @liamstack 04:05:05 This seems like something Trump will not want to do https://t.co/Kn0f9IhX7L in reply to liamstack
04:24:19 Retweeted @JessicaScott09 03:57:09 CNN just said there's up to 12 women coming forward against Trump.
04:27:37 Retweeted @brianbeutler 00:48:18 This isn't He Said/She Said so much as They Said, because he said 'I sexually assault women with impunity" and she said, 'yes that's right.'
05:25:18 Retweeted @LJSilverman1 2016-10-08 20:54:15 Bite your tongue before you say a thing about Melania Trump. She is married to an abusive man. So bite your damn tongue & have some empathy.
05:35:13 Retweeted @Claire_Phipps 00:34:58 Do read these tweets from former Miss Teen USA @TheRealKamie on Trump and women вЂ“ especially women of colour: https://t.co/PpsYd0BRBT
05:37:04 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 05:15:31 It's been said that when Trump attacks someone he's just highlighting his own shortcomings. Explains the obsession with Bill's sexual past.
05:37:20 Retweeted @morningmoneyben 05:15:21 Huge credit to him for refusing to let Trump slide without answering. At first I thought Trump wouldn't deny. https://t.co/j63Peh0bvu
05:38:47 Retweeted @MEPFuller 03:11:35 And now the Trump campaign is threatening to sue individual women for coming forward.
It bears repeating: This is the Republican nominee.
05:39:49 Retweeted @KeithOlbermann 04:35:08 I'd like to congratulate @realDonaldTrump on hitting the two hour mark since the last accusation of sexual assault and/or groping #Pivot
05:40:46 Retweeted @jledbetter 05:00:28 Pulling out of VA is NBD for the Trump campaign. As long as they still win NC, OH, FL, NH, NV, PA, Canada, the UN, and UT.
05:41:54 Retweeted @markmobility 01:50:16 Want to understand why the Trump campaign is panicking? Check out the trends in Wisconsin after the #TrumpTapes. https://t.co/zSHj1JMqGI
05:48:15 Retweeted @BadAstronomer 2016-10-12 20:59:23 This is what the electoral map looks like once all the stars in the Universe burn out and matter decays into nothinвЂ¦ https://t.co/bJ0tlgf22u
05:51:53 Retweeted @JayCostTWS 05:35:51 One thing I will say: Trump has taught me where the Framers were coming from vis-a-vis unchecked democracy.
06:23:46 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 03:48:00 Come on, man… https://t.co/77tW49kWWK
07:30:54 Retweeted @ezraklein 04:37:40 If you're a Republican, all you must be thinking about is: what's coming out next?
Tomorrow's defections will be something to see.
07:32:37 Retweeted @EliotHiggins 07:09:21 At this rate it might be President Clinton jailing Donald Trump.
07:35:15 Retweeted @MattMackowiak 04:08:04 Trump has avoided accountability his entire life: prenups, NDAs, hush money, settlements, filing law suits, bankruptcy. No more.
07:41:40 Retweeted @David_EHG 2016-10-12 19:17:08 This montage of Trump yearning for the "good ole' days" in @AVAETC's searing documentary "13th" is just devastating: https://t.co/KtpJzbg4UN
08:01:56 Retweeted @JillFilipovic 07:56:15 "I didn't sexually assault women, I just bragged about sexually assaulting women to sound cool" is maybe not the best defense?
08:02:29 Retweeted @charliedemers 01:18:49 Who you going to believe, women who claim they were groped, or a man who says he gropes women? It's a real "he & she both said" situation.
15:57:16 Retweeted @BraddJaffy 12:32:09 Time magazine has updated its August cover for this week https://t.co/SJKVDj19ic
15:58:11 Retweeted @Rosie 15:56:16 … https://t.co/Du8LFDYj7j
16:11:05 Good thread -> https://t.co/uQSU4ITVyF
16:34:17 Must read. Best explanation of this I’ve ever read. -> How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind (David Wong) https://t.co/P3MZzALqF9
16:44:39 Retweeted @Kia_Mak 16:44:01 Michelle Obama is delivering an incredibly stirring and personal rebuke to Trump’s assaults https://t.co/c0LGIRiI90
16:47:01 Retweeted @jonfavs 16:46:22 Michelle Obama is giving one of the most important speeches of the entire campaign.
16:51:52 If you haven’t been watching Michelle Obama these last few minutes, you have missed out. She’s wrapping up now. https://t.co/EQsxfPl1DW
16:53:14 Michelle Obama really should be running for something herself. I know she doesn’t want to, but DAMN is she goodвЂ¦ https://t.co/EQsxfPl1DW
17:49:45 Retweeted @jaketapper 17:38:39 NYT responds to Trump re: cease and desist https://t.co/3AozcWSIl6
17:50:18 Retweeted @_SidVerma 17:09:25 Here is Donald Trump's response to suggestions he is a "sexual predator" https://t.co/1QhidToA1b
18:01:50 Retweeted @jaketapper 2016-10-07 21:14:59 It's a question that has confounded millions of people for hundreds of years, @johnpodesta @jmpalmieriвЂ¦ https://t.co/eWNylDWUTX
18:03:55 Reading – Storm Update (Cliff Mass) https://t.co/a9BEHmgl8e
18:46:42 Retweeted @TheJewishDream 00:09:45 In the vein of @joshtpm's "Trump's razor" I submit "SchrГ¶dinger's Trump": A revelation that's both shocking and unsurprising, simultaneously
18:47:16 Retweeted @GoldyHA 2016-10-12 23:59:37 If there's one thing we've learned from this campaign it's that Trump's Republican primary opponents all sucked at opposition research.
18:56:35 Michelle Obama starts at 24:30. Watch the whole thing -> First Lady Michelle Obama live in Manchester, New Hampshire https://t.co/lXHoq3WbbB
18:58:20 Retweeted @TomWellborn 2016-10-12 16:06:10 Trump's Freudian slip when he told supporters to go out and vote Nov 28th… the start date of trial for fraud.
19:09:06 Watching – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Trailer #2 (Official) https://t.co/SBfLjeI34D
19:11:11 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 2016-10-11 23:06:05 And for those wondering, yes Reagan led Carter right now.
19:19:50 Retweeted @hominidviews 2016-10-11 20:22:59 If the election was today, Democrats would have a 63.5% probability of taking the Senate….
https://t.co/Y1dzDLDrS1 https://t.co/4fAGJ9rC5p
19:29:17 Watching – GOP Fear the P (Samantha Bee) https://t.co/1JiE4vlczE
19:30:39 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 19:30:22 A round of poll entry complete. All 50 states, DC, and ME congressional districts. Blog post over at @ElectionGraphs coming later.
19:35:36 Retweeted @joshtpm 18:34:50 It does seem like Trump wants to help political science by running a controlled experiment where a candidate gets zero votes from women.
19:36:42 Retweeted @SnoPUD 19:31:16 #Update on tonight's storm: https://t.co/qJ3jQWVujl вЂ¦ Review our storm tips to prepare: https://t.co/Jpl4ajaIE5вЂ¦ https://t.co/jVIYeSESNB
19:43:58 Retweeted @HillaryClinton 18:45:25 .@FLOTUS, I'm in awe. Thanks for putting into words what's in so many of our hearts. -H
19:48:59 Reading – Trump Said to Block Campaign’s Requests to Do Self-Opposition Research (@kevcirilli) https://t.co/fvOHLEpbUe
21:10:47 Retweeted @BBCRosAtkins 19:16:27 Donald Trump says he'll sue the @nytimes over new allegations of inappropriate behaviour. NYT lawyer says bring it.. https://t.co/BPjLxw4Nqi
21:11:31 Retweeted @gadyepstein 14:18:14 Our great cover this week puts Trump where he belongs. https://t.co/Moct2KsLii
21:24:08 Retweeted @hominidviews 21:18:48 In an election held today, Clinton would win with near certainty, and about 335 electoral votes.вЂ¦ https://t.co/mq8yGIHTju
21:33:32 Retweeted @ShannonODKOMO 21:17:38 Winds ramping up after dark and into early Friday morning. Strongest gusts Whidbey Island, northward, and at the coвЂ¦ https://t.co/zVZKRtFBbd
21:34:04 Retweeted @ABCLiz 20:46:29 For those interested: Clinton said gifs with a hard "G" in reply to ABCLiz
21:48:56 Retweeted @Politics1com 16:33:33 Newt Gingrich tells FOX that Donald Trump is no longer listening to his advice.
22:26:10 Retweeted @cd_hooks 22:17:33 Republican primary voters had every tool in the world they needed to figure out what kind of dude Donald was. This is not the media's fault
22:37:13 Retweeted @marinakoren 22:20:17 .@lucia_graves, who reported on Trump's groping allegations back in July, on why we're only talking about it now:вЂ¦ https://t.co/OTTLcwsN0U
22:58:23 Retweeted @kairyssdal 22:54:29 Good thread here from @toddzwillich https://t.co/P15pE1V709
23:04:39 Retweeted @ryanstruyk 22:25:00 Trump is winning 68% of white evangelical Christians in new Fox poll.
That's exactly the same as before the lewd video from last weekend.
23:10:47 Retweeted @DavidMDrucker 22:47:15 It's time for another edition of: I only believe the polls that give me the results I want.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-12 (UTC)

02:50:57 Poll Added: Ipsos in AL from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 36.507% to Trump 56.761% https://t.co/pRvleTvra3
02:53:55 Poll Added: Ipsos in AZ from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42.218% to Trump 49.058% https://t.co/YItkOUnUJ1
02:54:09 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/YItkOUnUJ1
03:06:43 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 331 to Trump 207 -> Clinton 342 to Trump 196 https://t.co/SboYndVp3I
03:14:35 Retweeted @jasonnobleDMR 00:07:29 вЂњNo, no, no,вЂќ @mike_pence said when a woman suggested "revolution" if Hillary Clinton is elected. "Don’t say that.вЂќ
https://t.co/IjOzsTSkPm
03:19:03 Poll Added: Ipsos in AR from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 37.874% to Trump 53.007% https://t.co/bRo3u5nJi3
03:24:27 Poll Added: Ipsos in CA from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 62.260% to Trump 27.856% https://t.co/waa5OFMSci
03:28:26 Poll Added: Ipsos in CO from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44.765% to Trump 44.857% https://t.co/6EfLkipXeh
03:31:34 Poll Added: Ipsos in CT from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 53.475% to Trump 35.230% https://t.co/8pldcjEtbH
03:34:21 Poll Added: Ipsos in DE from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46.257% to Trump 35.623% https://t.co/pu2WPs8WfK
03:36:39 Poll Added: Ipsos in FL from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48.550% to Trump 43.736% https://t.co/SCoeliNEzR
03:40:07 Poll Added: Ipsos in GA from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43.102% to Trump 48.054% https://t.co/yuAq2mSEkv
03:42:28 Poll Added: Ipsos in ID from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 31.007% to Trump 55.216% https://t.co/utIyi52sOc
03:44:53 Poll Added: Ipsos in IL from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 57.488% to Trump 31.292% https://t.co/TsFY9ZREIi
03:47:48 Poll Added: Ipsos in IN from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 37.214% to Trump 50.312% https://t.co/98cJ4iFgtU
03:48:02 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/98cJ4iFgtU
04:07:02 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 387 to Trump 151 -> Clinton 376 to Trump 162 https://t.co/xYGXUefFeL
04:21:06 Poll Added: Ipsos in IA from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44.429% to Trump 46.179% https://t.co/QN6H3B60j0
04:23:29 Poll Added: Ipsos in KS from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34.845% to Trump 55.298% https://t.co/PBCMFYgJXr
04:26:38 Poll Added: Ipsos in KY from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 37.269% to Trump 57.059% https://t.co/IeY2ltCQka
04:59:51 Poll Added: Ipsos in LA from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 35.533% to Trump 50.879% https://t.co/yOs05peKXN
05:04:43 Poll Added: Ipsos in ME-All from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 45.944% to Trump 33.064% https://t.co/Od2YZB3IP7
05:08:37 Poll Added: Ipsos in MD from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 53.072% to Trump 31.736% https://t.co/rzN5iScYrL
05:12:33 Poll Added: Ipsos in MA from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48.993% to Trump 29.851% https://t.co/ot5PIXAOuD
05:15:42 Poll Added: Ipsos in MI from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44.751% to Trump 38.175% https://t.co/mavJJReZNF
05:18:15 Poll Added: Ipsos in MN from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42.030% to Trump 37.566% https://t.co/1Hzoz9EBTN
05:42:06 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 6.9% in MN -> Clinton by 7.3% in VA https://t.co/XXLv29pKHT
06:34:44 Poll Added: Ipsos in MS from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 39.961% to Trump 51.093% https://t.co/njjXH2V9f2
06:37:34 Poll Added: Ipsos in MO from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 37.046% to Trump 48.700% https://t.co/VfTg584SOl
06:40:35 Poll Added: Ipsos in MT from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 34.264% to Trump 57.979% https://t.co/h8hgl72xPH
06:43:19 Poll Added: Ipsos in NE-All from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 31.753% to Trump 47.557% https://t.co/LWsoWxs2q2
06:46:50 Poll Added: Ipsos in NV from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46.231% to Trump 42.287% https://t.co/LSyR8wTfKh
06:49:08 Poll Added: Ipsos in NH from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 49.448% to Trump 39.511% https://t.co/ym2HRGaVML
06:51:14 Poll Added: Ipsos in NJ from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48.523% to Trump 33.656% https://t.co/kD9fzMl0s2
06:51:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NJ has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/kD9fzMl0s2
06:54:05 Poll Added: Ipsos in NM from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 49.105% to Trump 35.931% https://t.co/i8SIUmpsGb
06:59:54 Poll Added: Ipsos in NY from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 54.762% to Trump 31.065% https://t.co/HYhsQqbnS8
07:02:46 Poll Added: Ipsos in NC from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 44.156% to Trump 43.092% https://t.co/RzOQZ8HfPV
07:02:58 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Clinton https://t.co/RzOQZ8HfPV
07:16:59 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 342 to Trump 196 -> Clinton 357 to Trump 181 https://t.co/QhPH8toplc
07:37:42 Poll Added: Ipsos in ND from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 30.323% to Trump 43.169% https://t.co/aTLYQShc0A
07:40:54 Poll Added: Ipsos in OH from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46.208% to Trump 42.560% https://t.co/cu2uQ1onwa
07:43:26 Poll Added: Ipsos in OK from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 33.220% to Trump 53.197% https://t.co/FPWTxWiZtw
07:47:42 Poll Added: Ipsos in OR from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 51.330% to Trump 35.999% https://t.co/Bfzbe6KjSG
07:49:28 Poll Added: Ipsos in PA from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 49.343% to Trump 42.790% https://t.co/KRkZyog1GF
07:52:38 Poll Added: Ipsos in SC from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46.665% to Trump 48.254% https://t.co/l8PxzaNXH4
07:54:51 Poll Added: Ipsos in SD from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 35.728% to Trump 45.447% https://t.co/vBfgr7CMyd
07:57:48 Poll Added: Ipsos in TN from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 33.855% to Trump 48.571% https://t.co/DwYpp8J8cf
07:59:27 Poll Added: Ipsos in TX from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 33.587% to Trump 50.140% https://t.co/eGDN7F0cUX
08:01:25 Poll Added: Ipsos in UT from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 32.941% to Trump 47.936% https://t.co/4VBkSHsFRJ
08:03:11 Poll Added: Ipsos in VT from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 46.338% to Trump 21.285% https://t.co/Rl7lORvz3z
08:05:47 Poll Added: Ipsos in VA from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 50.494% to Trump 39.053% https://t.co/IkaZYqyU0r
08:22:11 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 7.3% in VA -> Clinton by 7.3% in PA https://t.co/CMjeBEl2z6
16:25:53 Poll Added: Ipsos in WA from 2016-09-30 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 50.903% to Trump 33.287% https://t.co/stHCa9hddU
16:28:22 Poll Added: Ipsos in WV from 2016-09-16 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 36.365% to Trump 55.310% https://t.co/gxc0xBkUPV
16:30:28 Poll Added: Ipsos in WI from 2016-09-23 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 45.722% to Trump 42.278% https://t.co/cUgrTCgLa6
16:34:30 Poll Added: CVoter in AL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.0% to Trump 56.3% https://t.co/gw5W7Mv96V
16:36:31 Poll Added: CVoter in AK from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.3% to Trump 53.4% https://t.co/6vAONNN20M
16:38:59 Poll Added: CVoter in AZ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 43.8% to Trump 49.9% https://t.co/g3OOpJX0gq
16:39:15 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/g3OOpJX0gq
16:58:26 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 357 to Trump 181 -> Clinton 346 to Trump 192 https://t.co/gfpQ63zG2H
17:36:42 Poll Added: CVoter in AR from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 37.2% to Trump 56.1% https://t.co/rz9vBG8j0D
17:39:41 Poll Added: CVoter in CA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 58.2% to Trump 37.0% https://t.co/Ctrt1o5cHX
17:42:05 Poll Added: CVoter in CO from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49.8% to Trump 44.3% https://t.co/7NLz7S4dVp
17:44:52 Poll Added: CVoter in CT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 54.4% to Trump 41.6% https://t.co/K80NxLompk
17:46:56 Poll Added: CVoter in DE from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 55.2% to Trump 41.4% https://t.co/WDDJWUQDQE
17:49:45 Poll Added: CVoter in FL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 47.6% to Trump 46.7% https://t.co/A27uPWLN2z
17:51:38 Poll Added: CVoter in GA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.8% to Trump 48.6% https://t.co/h3dUpSjKYV
17:51:55 Clinton vs Trump state category change: GA has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/h3dUpSjKYV
17:54:08 Poll Added: CVoter in HI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 64.4% to Trump 32.4% https://t.co/eImgx4hjSp
18:01:57 Poll Added: CVoter in ID from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.5% to Trump 59.9% https://t.co/OMdUNnigyQ
18:05:40 Poll Added: CVoter in IL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 55.4% to Trump 39.9% https://t.co/w7hnbyAGLU
18:08:25 Poll Added: CVoter in IN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 42.8% to Trump 52.4% https://t.co/eR5MrTvxem
18:08:45 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/eR5MrTdVPM
18:33:22 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 376 to Trump 162 -> Clinton 387 to Trump 151 https://t.co/plSSEdsx4b
19:55:15 Poll Added: CVoter in IA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 47.1% https://t.co/aruimdnG6G
19:57:49 Poll Added: CVoter in KS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.5% to Trump 54.8% https://t.co/O49V7LyYjq
19:58:05 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/O49V7LyYjq
20:13:10 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 387 to Trump 151 -> Clinton 381 to Trump 157 https://t.co/XlvQJ9Bobs
20:15:06 Poll Added: CVoter in KY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.2% to Trump 56.9% https://t.co/1vnodP2QYf
20:15:24 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KY has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/1vnodP2QYf
20:17:40 Poll Added: CVoter in LA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.4% to Trump 54.5% https://t.co/MS2AQxpphn
20:20:05 Poll Added: CVoter in ME-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 55.0% to Trump 41.2% https://t.co/dNaIQkY0Aj
20:21:45 Poll Added: CVoter in MD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 58.2% to Trump 37.2% https://t.co/GDDRmrqSE9
20:23:59 Poll Added: CVoter in MA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.6% to Trump 38.7% https://t.co/3HH1XU9bWc
20:26:03 Poll Added: CVoter in MI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 51.5% to Trump 44.0% https://t.co/nhUzkrfQ3O
20:28:32 Poll Added: CVoter in MN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 50.6% to Trump 45.3% https://t.co/nPuMVSqGBo
20:42:49 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 7.3% in PA -> Clinton by 7.1% in MN https://t.co/ScDSrI3nwh
22:25:02 Poll Added: CVoter in MS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.7% to Trump 53.5% https://t.co/EnoMAM6mYN
22:27:30 Poll Added: CVoter in MO from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.7% to Trump 50.7% https://t.co/lTdxefZioE
22:31:06 Poll Added: CVoter in MT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.3% to Trump 54.2% https://t.co/TYAAqEoAJx
22:33:22 Poll Added: CVoter in NE-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.5% to Trump 56.7% https://t.co/AcdHXdkpOX
22:37:13 Poll Added: CVoter in NV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 44.9% https://t.co/vM5CPLVCyq
22:39:13 Poll Added: CVoter in NH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49.9% to Trump 45.4% https://t.co/JlRy1WBkYI
22:40:59 Poll Added: CVoter in NJ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 56.9% to Trump 39.1% https://t.co/PGtvpXJVo3
22:43:46 Poll Added: CVoter in NM from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 50.5% to Trump 43.4% https://t.co/3FAqGpNrjX
22:45:42 Poll Added: CVoter in NY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 58.2% to Trump 37.6% https://t.co/SGoEJgPM1c
22:47:53 Poll Added: CVoter in NC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 47.8% to Trump 47.3% https://t.co/6jxSflMFAa
22:50:51 Poll Added: CVoter in ND from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 55.4% https://t.co/YmLr9n3krn
22:52:32 Poll Added: CVoter in OH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49.8% to Trump 46.0% https://t.co/DMcqlUiGqN
22:57:02 Poll Added: CVoter in OK from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.8% to Trump 61.7% https://t.co/pAlHfhgNwI
23:00:31 Poll Added: CVoter in OR from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 50.6% to Trump 42.5% https://t.co/Tabl6uitfj
23:03:09 Poll Added: CVoter in PA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.9% to Trump 46.5% https://t.co/UhVpgG5puc
23:22:27 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 7.1% in MN -> Clinton by 6.5% in PA https://t.co/Jf9CFhIEEP

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-12 (UTC)

00:09:16 Retweeted @allahpundit 2016-10-11 23:55:49 Gonna bet вЂњUtahвЂќ https://t.co/YhpYocnGXE
01:39:18 Retweeted @pbump 00:31:24 Here's a congressman saying that if Trump said he liked raping women, he'd have to think about pulling his support. https://t.co/fvKNqRzKfa
01:39:40 Retweeted @MeghanMcCain 00:43:23 Trump is going nuclear on the GOP instead of Hillary because he knows he's going to lose & is going to need someone to blame when it happens
01:45:33 Retweeted @marinafang 01:34:05 In Florida, Trump just said Election Day is November 28
01:56:43 Retweeted @hockeyfreak1970 2016-10-09 14:05:38 Steve Schmidt speaking the most truth I've heard from his party in a very long time. https://t.co/ftEZQjPsGv
01:57:12 Retweeted @DylanByers 01:12:52 Wow: Kellyanne Conway tries to suggest settling lawsuits implies guiltвЂ¦. @andersoncooper reminds her Trump вЂњsettles lawsuits all the timeвЂ¦"
02:00:39 Retweeted @mattyglesias 2016-10-11 23:34:53 The case for banning men https://t.co/l2G2yV7A9x
02:02:24 Retweeted @mmfa 01:28:06 President Obama comments on Trump ally Alex Jones' report that he and Hillary Clinton are demonsвЂ¦ https://t.co/uqCAFw6Hq2
03:11:53 Retweeted @bkesling 02:33:20 Trump surrogate @kayleighmcenany on Don Lemon’s show saying Donald Trump is now a born-again Christian. @CNN
03:11:57 Retweeted @DanFosterType 02:42:36 He’s up to three, possibly four Corinthians. https://t.co/NVR5s1wcvl
03:12:33 Retweeted @themadstone 2016-10-11 00:21:31 this comment is actually brilliant https://t.co/9WK5H3A93y
04:49:57 Retweeted @GreatDismal 04:33:00 "I figure they mostly talk about Ivanka's ass." A friend on why Trump and Pence haven't yet discussed Syria
04:52:59 Retweeted @chrislhayes 2016-10-11 21:46:18 All the people who work for Trump and the RNC must have *amazing* infosec. Otherwise can't imagine how they've escaped being hacked.
05:38:27 Retweeted @goldengateblond 05:09:27 Jesus. He literally does not understand the branches of government and how they work. https://t.co/kjEoEkG1F4
06:07:17 Retweeted @chenx064 04:55:26 These shoes <symbol><symbol> were made for voting. But for women's votes, the Trumpocalypse would be unleashed. Ladies, thank youвЂ¦ https://t.co/yenVthsAtF
06:10:16 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 05:49:44 Clinton 26%, Trump 26%, McMuffin (aka McMullin) 22%, Johnson 14% in Utah. https://t.co/7HkwFSlRXT
06:10:28 Retweeted @Taniel 06:01:08 No 3rd party/indy candidate has won an electoral vote since 1968. McMullin closer to in this poll than even Perot was in any state in 1992. in reply to Taniel
06:23:22 If more polls back up McMullin being within reach of winning Utah, I may have to activate my 3P plan for @ElectionGraphs. Would be nuts.
06:25:17 .@ElectionGraphs I would have to redo almost the whole site. Would be really hard at this point. Can’t keep up as it isвЂ¦ in reply to abulsme
06:26:08 .@ElectionGraphs Also, while I have carefully logged Johnson and Stein results, not so McMulllin. Would have to find and backfill. Urgh. in reply to abulsme
06:26:32 Retweeted @BenSmithDC 05:57:55 So @Evan_McMullin is only down 4 in Utah and has a chance to get EVs https://t.co/IQztzTihmx
06:28:46 Retweeted @pollreport 06:28:07 UTAH
President:
Clinton (D) 26%
Trump (R) 26%
McMullin (I) 22%
Johnson (L) 14%
Stein (G) 1%
(Y2 Analytics-R, LV, 10/10-11)
07:19:54 McMullin thing stressing me out. Mind racing on changes I would have 2 make. Expected if 3P had shot @ EV would have been clear months ago.
07:21:22 Don’t have to activate plan quite yetвЂ¦ but have to start fleshing out plan so I could implement quickly if more polls confirm this! in reply to abulsme
07:33:37 My trigger 4 doing the work 2 revamp my site 2 allow possibility of 3P EV: at least 1 state w/ 3P clearly in 2nd place or within 5% of lead. in reply to abulsme
16:47:24 Retweeted @JoshuaChavers 14:07:09 "There are so many pussies around your presidential campaign on both sides that I prefer not to comment." https://t.co/cxSkzcQ7Jx
16:48:02 Retweeted @matthewjdowd 16:14:07 Here is a fascinating fact: @Evan_McMullin now has a better chance of winning Utah, than trump has of winning PA, MI, WI, NH, CO or VA.
16:48:17 Retweeted @redsteeze 16:13:14 Pennsylvania gone
Ohio gone
Florida gone

The rest from here on out is a temper tantrum.
17:04:26 Reading – Teen Beauty Queens Say Trump Walked In On Them Changing (Taggart/Garrison/Testa) https://t.co/xHU5PMA1cG
17:33:48 Retweeted @MULawPoll 17:27:42 Among likely voters in WI:
Thursday: Trump 41%, Clinton 40%
Friday: Clinton 44%, Trump 38%
Saturday and Sunday: Clinton 49%, Trump 30%
17:36:47 Retweeted @pbump 17:33:43 Overdue: How much time until polls close nationally and in every state.
How much time until this ends.
https://t.co/R0hHAIMphq
17:38:30 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 16:01:03 Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)

This is what nominating Donald Trump leads to.
18:06:32 Retweeted @CandaceSmith_ 17:50:15 Trump on the Commission for Presidential Debates: "I have no respect for that group by the way, I'm done."
19:13:49 Reading – This Won't Go Away (@joshtpm) https://t.co/BRJeZ3LJUy
19:23:12 Reading – Danger on November 9th (@joshtpm) https://t.co/8N6vqYj6up
19:33:07 Reading – Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback? (@forecasterenten) https://t.co/jtUSqWfGOU (Spoiler: No)
20:10:26 Reading – Donald Trump Is a Talented Politician (@HeerJeet) https://t.co/6PvT0nzB0E
20:44:00 Reading – How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages (@Nate_Cohn) https://t.co/HosoMVCFB2
21:34:19 Retweeted @aravosis 21:30:53 Kellyann is melting down on CNN right now over allegations that Trump peeped on teenage beauty pageant contestants.
21:49:06 Coming my way! Gulp! -> Warning: Major Storms Threaten the Pacific Northwest (Cliff Mass) https://t.co/WqoBM6LHdE
21:56:15 Retweeted @ParkerMolloy 20:12:33 *Tweets joke*
*Five hours later*
Goddammit. https://t.co/KgayClvhPg
23:08:47 Boom. I’m sure there are more to come. -> Two Women Say Donald Trump Touched Them Inappropriately (Twohey/Barbaro) https://t.co/9kZF9PueMa
23:13:54 Retweeted @JHWeissmann 23:11:22 This feels like the beginning of a Cosby-esque flood https://t.co/bD17E5IE2F
23:14:57 Retweeted @spooknine 23:12:08 Live shot inside Clinton camp's Trump oppo vault https://t.co/A6bSUInxpJ
23:28:41 Retweeted @nycsouthpaw 23:28:11 It's not "the rape police," Rush Limbaugh. It's just the police. https://t.co/cYTtulCcUw https://t.co/09N06802OK
23:29:53 Retweeted @JoshuaGreen 23:17:34 SCOOP: Trump campaign going nuclear. Will soon roll out new accusers. "We're going to turn him into Bill Cosby," vows Bannon. @bw story soon
23:30:34 Retweeted @KellyO 23:29:19 .@realDonaldTrump campaign statement on NYT report. https://t.co/H3YQtjAPy0
23:37:27 We’re up to 2013 -> Miss Washington 2013 says Donald Trump groped her (Josh Lyle) https://t.co/4iAVIoq3jZ
23:38:28 Retweeted @AlGiordano 23:35:00 Aaaaaand we've just entered another Supermodels vs. Trump news cycle.
23:51:17 The biggest BS of anything I am hearing right now is Trumpets saying Trump вЂњis a changed personвЂќ, so none of this counts. Oh FFS. Whatever.
23:54:26 Retweeted @imbou 23:53:51 @aravosis @abulsme wait until she hears about all the other women accusers, he wanted this fight he's got it in reply to aravosis
23:57:01 Full disclosure, my cousin was on The Apprentice in 2006. She’s in grey in the picture here. No stories to share. https://t.co/Y5mAbBZzoq

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-11 (UTC)

00:50:39 Poll Added: Loras [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 42.6% to Trump 28.8% https://t.co/g98i4o3buv
00:52:15 Poll Added: Loras w/Lean [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 46.6% to Trump 37.0% https://t.co/SvgljPp3yu
00:54:14 Poll Added: Loras w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 39.6% to Trump 27.6% https://t.co/Oq3j87lKwx
00:54:19 Full 4P results: Loras w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 39.6% to Trump 27.6% to Johnson 4.2% to Stein 1.0%
00:55:45 Poll Added: Loras w/Lean w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.6% https://t.co/eGXbRegAML
00:55:50 Full 4P results: Loras w/Lean w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 43.2% to Trump 34.6% to Johnson 7.8% to Stein 1.8%
01:03:09 Poll Added: High Point w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 40% https://t.co/BkE2ufI6nY
01:03:14 Full 3P results: High Point w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 42% to Trump 40% to Johnson 8%
01:04:51 Poll Added: High Point w/Lean w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 42% https://t.co/AT8MRuNFL5
01:04:56 Full 3P results: High Point w/Lean w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-10-01 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 43% to Trump 42% to Johnson 8%
01:05:08 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/AT8MRuw4Tx
01:21:17 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 357 to Trump 181 -> Clinton 342 to Trump 196 https://t.co/JqOVZuTSfU
05:15:40 Poll Added: Susquehanna w/4P in PA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 40% https://t.co/dBb9Gh0ycb
05:15:45 Full 4P results: Susquehanna w/4P in PA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44% to Trump 40% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
05:21:50 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 29.97% to Trump 27.17% https://t.co/crwT3fDEu0
05:21:55 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 29.97% to Trump 27.17% to Johnson 17.10%
05:24:21 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 22.51% to Trump 53.80% https://t.co/iXfGDJeY6v
05:24:26 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 22.51% to Trump 53.80% to Johnson 4.17%
05:26:51 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.69% to Trump 40.24% https://t.co/mufQRc9c0q
05:26:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.69% to Trump 40.24% to Johnson 2.85%
05:29:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.24% to Trump 35.87% https://t.co/Hy4VhCsr7x
05:29:47 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 38.24% to Trump 35.87% to Johnson 6.51%
05:30:01 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/Hy4VhCsr7x
05:46:55 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 342 to Trump 196 -> Clinton 331 to Trump 207 https://t.co/fzrfBAkDjC
05:58:59 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 47.55% to Trump 27.38% https://t.co/N7Tils8Fsd
05:59:04 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 47.55% to Trump 27.38% to Johnson 5.65%
06:32:40 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.46% to Trump 25.52% https://t.co/WeN4B8qy6I
06:32:45 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.46% to Trump 25.52% to Johnson 10.02%
06:36:20 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.26% to Trump 26.17% https://t.co/iNKL6O7SPs
06:36:25 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.26% to Trump 26.17% to Johnson 6.01%
06:38:52 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.90% to Trump 15.10% https://t.co/ym5YwyUi8N
06:38:57 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.90% to Trump 15.10% to Johnson 4.88%
06:41:22 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.37% to Trump 28.34% https://t.co/ErzW8ZwFnA
06:41:27 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.37% to Trump 28.34% to Johnson 5.11%
06:49:05 Poll Added: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.85% to Trump 37.09% https://t.co/O5Gmzs2db2
06:49:10 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.85% to Trump 37.09% to Johnson 6.01%
06:52:27 Poll Added: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.76% to Trump 42.67% https://t.co/UGTHG5AvYl
06:52:32 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.76% to Trump 42.67% to Johnson 7.45%
06:52:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: GA has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/UGTHG5iUzL
06:56:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49.42% to Trump 29.17% https://t.co/r2IKBOD9U3
06:56:08 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 49.42% to Trump 29.17% to Johnson 13.99%
06:58:44 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.61% to Trump 27.19% https://t.co/3CcEN6HDaF
06:58:49 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.61% to Trump 27.19% to Johnson 7.56%
07:01:26 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 24.82% to Trump 32.89% https://t.co/ySt4Z1Nbn0
07:01:32 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 24.82% to Trump 32.89% to Johnson 9.66%
07:04:28 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.07% to Trump 29.52% https://t.co/JK81AjQSiQ
07:04:33 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.07% to Trump 29.52% to Johnson 6.88%
07:08:28 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.04% to Trump 35.07% https://t.co/tXKX9Ebv4j
07:08:33 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 36.04% to Trump 35.07% to Johnson 6.95%
07:08:47 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/tXKX9Et6sT
07:32:05 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 370 to Trump 168 -> Clinton 381 to Trump 157 https://t.co/fUsAenm4SH
07:34:22 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.37% to Trump 30.72% https://t.co/Uxe7Q6HkLT
07:34:27 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.37% to Trump 30.72% to Johnson 5.17%
07:34:43 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/Uxe7Q6HkLT
07:46:43 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 381 to Trump 157 -> Clinton 387 to Trump 151 https://t.co/kVSTNtcgzr
07:49:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.39% to Trump 34.00% https://t.co/WV0rauDJAW
07:49:08 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.39% to Trump 34.00% to Johnson 7.12%
07:49:24 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KY has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/WV0rauDJAW
07:51:50 Poll Added: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 22.83% to Trump 49.20% https://t.co/vFBtHbpkzK
07:51:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 22.83% to Trump 49.20% to Johnson 4.46%
07:54:20 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.75% to Trump 19.79% https://t.co/IufXoDVPb3
07:54:25 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.75% to Trump 19.79% to Johnson 6.19%
07:56:39 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.14% to Trump 25.89% https://t.co/TV1xiyabdL
07:56:45 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.14% to Trump 25.89% to Johnson 4.95%
07:59:08 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 42.82% to Trump 41.51% https://t.co/Kr4uXuWpQL
07:59:13 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 42.82% to Trump 41.51% to Johnson 4.64%
08:01:50 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.75% to Trump 28.98% https://t.co/qac7nAghws
08:01:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.75% to Trump 28.98% to Johnson 6.55%
08:04:25 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.04% to Trump 25.42% https://t.co/Sj7JnuCm9l
08:04:30 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.04% to Trump 25.42% to Johnson 9.94%
08:16:57 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.9% in MN -> Clinton by 6.8% in VA https://t.co/8LB8oXftRy
15:47:52 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.15% to Trump 30.38% https://t.co/31ZFBgVzaT
15:47:57 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.15% to Trump 30.38% to Johnson 9.23%
15:49:32 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 23.91% to Trump 50.69% https://t.co/LN0837Y04D
15:49:37 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 23.91% to Trump 50.69% to Johnson 2.05%
15:51:59 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.10% to Trump 40.84% https://t.co/syivBPJ1hg
15:52:04 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.10% to Trump 40.84% to Johnson 4.07%
15:54:24 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.04% to Trump 36.78% https://t.co/NvUSkSQNft
15:54:29 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.04% to Trump 36.78% to Johnson 6.67%
15:57:18 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 13.34% to Trump 63.29% https://t.co/JDh6ShDPA1
15:57:23 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 13.34% to Trump 63.29% to Johnson 7.37%
15:59:43 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 26.88% to Trump 39.06% https://t.co/GWzfIhtEmh
15:59:49 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 26.88% to Trump 39.06% to Johnson 4.57%
16:02:51 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 56.62% to Trump 17.43% https://t.co/18OEff3dTp
16:02:55 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 56.62% to Trump 17.43% to Johnson 14.35%
16:03:08 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/18OEfeLD1R
16:05:11 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.30% to Trump 34.19% https://t.co/qsnIIhqZAC
16:05:16 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 40.30% to Trump 34.19% to Johnson 5.03%
16:48:21 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.40% to Trump 28.14% https://t.co/JqIKV2tmgX
16:48:26 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 35.40% to Trump 28.14% to Johnson 16.10%
16:51:21 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 43.81% to Trump 30.43% https://t.co/fkxtTw0419
16:51:26 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 43.81% to Trump 30.43% to Johnson 8.71%
16:54:12 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.72% to Trump 30.76% https://t.co/2gPklNuu4V
16:54:17 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 41.72% to Trump 30.76% to Johnson 5.53%
16:59:01 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.41% to Trump 35.84% https://t.co/7HOL8pSYqx
16:59:06 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.41% to Trump 35.84% to Johnson 7.23%
17:02:33 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.48% to Trump 41.63% https://t.co/6UIwwHXhdN
17:02:38 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.48% to Trump 41.63% to Johnson 6.24%
17:04:46 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.54% to Trump 23.82% https://t.co/xcc1qukk7p
17:04:51 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 48.54% to Trump 23.82% to Johnson 7.77%
17:07:07 Poll Added: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.65% to Trump 33.60% https://t.co/WsrSuxRPvD
17:07:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 39.65% to Trump 33.60% to Johnson 5.16%
17:09:24 Poll Added: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.20% to Trump 25.04% https://t.co/BLetfd4jiR
17:09:29 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 52.20% to Trump 25.04% to Johnson 3.70%
17:11:06 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 31.38% to Trump 45.47% https://t.co/Wq4DJBJ52Z
17:11:11 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 31.38% to Trump 45.47% to Johnson 5.24%
17:13:28 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.71% to Trump 36.87% https://t.co/MEbMIxCdtC
17:13:33 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 32.71% to Trump 36.87% to Johnson 6.99%
17:15:19 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.28% to Trump 43.35% https://t.co/r3iwVz57ax
17:15:24 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 33.28% to Trump 43.35% to Johnson 7.75%
17:17:41 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 31.75% to Trump 39.97% https://t.co/nbLEVgHkYB
17:17:46 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 31.75% to Trump 39.97% to Johnson 7.90%
17:19:16 Poll Added: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.37% to Trump 33.91% https://t.co/lIX7jox946
17:19:21 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 30.37% to Trump 33.91% to Johnson 11.45%
17:21:53 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.05% to Trump 36.57% https://t.co/Gw5OFOE8WD
17:21:58 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 34.05% to Trump 36.57% to Johnson 6.35%
17:48:27 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 6.8% in VA -> Clinton by 6.9% in MN https://t.co/i9ptX7tuAt
18:23:04 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.02% to Trump 16.11% https://t.co/WVM7jxFODQ
18:23:09 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 57.02% to Trump 16.11% to Johnson 10.26%
18:25:28 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 45.50% to Trump 27.99% https://t.co/6Aa1oTYO6m
18:25:33 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 45.50% to Trump 27.99% to Johnson 9.59%
18:27:20 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.29% to Trump 27.22% https://t.co/C2CUrQejqB
18:27:25 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 44.29% to Trump 27.22% to Johnson 3.99%
18:27:40 Clinton vs Trump state category change: WI has moved from Strong Clinton to Solid Clinton https://t.co/C2CUrQejqB
18:29:37 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 27.41% to Trump 50.21% https://t.co/UL2UykR6oC
18:29:42 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 27.41% to Trump 50.21% to Johnson 3.77%
18:31:45 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 11.04% to Trump 52.74% https://t.co/PZpV70QRVB
18:31:50 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-10-04 to 2016-10-09 – Clinton 11.04% to Trump 52.74% to Johnson 14.56%
18:33:04 That’s the 2nd poll of this election season I’ve seen with Johnson coming in 2nd in a state. Still not enough for me to redo the site. :-) in reply to ElecCollPolls

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-11 (UTC)

00:35:31 Retweeted @BrendanNyhan 2016-10-10 15:09:20 The full @RadioFreeTom tweetstorm (via @shoq) on political scientists of various political persuasions raising theвЂ¦ https://t.co/gboAoelieT
01:21:19 Reading – Donald Trump is the GOP’s chemotherapy (George Will) https://t.co/ihNEPvHxoP
02:38:41 Retweeted @aravosis 00:46:49 Epic @ananavarro take down of Trump surrogate on the topic of вЂњsexual assault.вЂќ Moments ago on #cnn. https://t.co/m0xHZV60V2
02:41:48 Retweeted @jpodhoretz 01:43:28 This is an astonishing tweet storm. You must read it. https://t.co/OlLFQicfIl
05:05:34 Retweeted @SwiftOnSecurity 04:47:10 Would like to remind everyone that you cannot "Acid Wash" emails with BleachBit.
Bleach is not an acid. Which Trump should fucking know. <symbol><symbol>
05:41:57 Reading – Dear Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, I Am Not Sidney Blumenthal (Kurt Eichenwald) https://t.co/X8DTlbrPsx
05:44:52 Retweeted @ErickFernandez 03:57:52 This Trump supporter said Hillary Clinton should denounce BeyoncГ© because of her Red Lobster line. I'm dead. <symbol><symbol><symbol>
https://t.co/fMCH3lMJUg
06:15:32 Retweeted @komonews 06:03:00 Cascade mountain peaks see first snowfall of season – https://t.co/p683naj61b https://t.co/Y4qQv8nj0L
15:29:43 Retweeted @secupp 14:26:51 This seems to imply, unimaginably, that we've yet to witness peak Trump. https://t.co/rfoq9rYBVb
15:32:45 Retweeted @Bencjacobs 14:34:54 Sent from the iPhone and not the Android https://t.co/R8Rm8fswKU
15:36:44 Retweeted @LPDonovan 15:17:03 We've now descended into staff-driven MAGA fanfic. https://t.co/RNF9PKKmNN
15:53:05 Retweeted @cavaticat 15:25:35 An island never yearns for connection to the land; it has never seen the land. An island believes itself to be the whole world. in reply to cavaticat
15:53:15 Retweeted @kashanacauley 14:39:47 Trump's new schedule:
Tuesday: Remove shackles
Wednesday: Punch Paul Ryan
Thursday: Grab some pussy
Friday: Kick a baby
16:23:26 Reading – Donald Trump’s Sad, Lonely Life (David Brooks) https://t.co/AoaGMewcsq
16:32:31 Retweeted @ObsoleteDogma 16:04:45 Maine Governor Paul LePage says Trump needs to "show some authoritarian powerвЂќ because Obama’s been an вЂњautocratвЂќвЂ¦ https://t.co/8x06aUj8wa
16:36:53 Retweeted @jesseberney 15:35:44 Holy shit, look at this new Trump ad, it's literally insane.
https://t.co/lyQypoot1M https://t.co/1rStCoo7JU
16:40:13 Retweeted @KFILE 15:26:59 I'm not trying to be snarky, but this is literally the plot of the 3rd Star Wars prequel: https://t.co/w9HPEgTFsL
17:05:44 Retweeted @erinscafe 17:05:35 I can't stop thinking about the fact that Trump has been shackled up to this point.
That was his idea of restraint.

God help us all.
17:38:01 Reading – How to Rebuild the Republican Party (David Frum) https://t.co/t5qXrEYM18
17:46:56 Retweeted @samfbiddle 15:35:29 this election makes clear that American schools urgently need to start teaching children early how to identify hoax articles/bad info online
17:48:20 Retweeted @mviser 17:22:54 Ben Carson on whether Trump’s talk was вЂњlocker roomвЂќ or sexual assault: вЂњCall it wherever you want to call it to make it feel better."
17:50:32 Retweeted @AriMelber 2016-10-10 16:36:39 Trump's pledge to jail Clinton – which Pence just defended today – was literally one of the articles of impeachmentвЂ¦ https://t.co/WHWAZ0g9Cj
17:50:42 Retweeted @lachlan 17:20:36 Hmmm this was deleted https://t.co/2Ujl1a7R7a
18:21:46 Retweeted @alexburnsNYT 18:21:20 This + recent polls in Utah & New Mexico really suggest a disciplined Libertarian nominee coulda won multiple states
https://t.co/u1vWmaOZAu
19:37:28 Reading – Why Donald Trump’s Transition From Sexual Assault to ISIS Made Sense (@natsecheather) https://t.co/umGWMhZZ8o
19:42:35 Retweeted @paulisci 18:43:28 Daily US newspapers, 2016 presidential endorsements (to date)
Clinton 91
No endorsement 9
Not Donald Trump 8
Gary Johnson 6
21:11:50 Retweeted @varadmehta 21:08:08 Good one. Read it. https://t.co/26IpH3Bex4
21:18:04 Retweeted @williamjordann 2016-10-09 22:57:27 Married WOMEN who say they are voting for Hillary Clinton: 45%.
Married MEN who think their SPOUSE is voting forвЂ¦ https://t.co/YoPq6emlLG in reply to williamjordann
21:20:12 Retweeted @AndrewKirell 17:36:04 Ben Carson to a stunned @brikeilarcnn: Maybe the problem is that you haven't heard enough men crudely boast of theiвЂ¦ https://t.co/HWH7zoSwCv
21:31:36 Odd -> A Visit to the Trump Family Gravesite Took a Very Trumpian Turn (Nell Scovell) https://t.co/StVshk0bVn
23:03:03 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 22:57:43 Correlation of where the polls are right now and the final result of the election since 1952? 0.96…
23:06:18 Retweeted @Walldo 22:56:25 Obama refers to Alex Jones, who "said me and HIllary are demons. Smell like sulfer. Ain't that something?вЂќ Then sniвЂ¦ https://t.co/OZqHFD3Ajg in reply to Walldo
23:18:40 Retweeted @_Drew_McCoy_ 21:12:07 The divide isn't between who is offended by Trump's language & who isn't. It's between who thinks it was talk and who thinks he *did* it.
23:36:15 Retweeted @normative 17:47:38 Suspend "never read the comments" for a day or two. It is striking & scary how many voters are deciding on the basis of made up nonsense.
23:36:18 Retweeted @normative 17:52:49 There's a point of no return: you believe so much nonsense that serious reporting seems to come from another reality & discredits itself.
23:45:52 Reading – Trump, the GOP, and the Fall (@scalzi) https://t.co/n7gkHtQigR
23:54:30 Reading – Poll Analysis: The Senate Flips (@hominidviews) https://t.co/9HC6FRJwGU

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@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-14 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-14 (UTC)