- 07:54:27 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 07:53:35 That’s all for now. New polls in FL/PA/WI/OH/AK. Notable change in AK, so @ElectionGraphs post a little later.
- 17:12:41 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Alaska in play? https://t.co/BuCGcM97El
- 17:35:45 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:15:47 @ElectionGraphs no https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 17:37:33 .@gelliottmorris Like the site! You’re not including the latest ASR or Moore polls? (I understand not including Google. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
- 17:39:48 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:39:07 @ElectionGraphs forecast probably hasn't adjusted yet. It pulls everything from https://t.co/eGNNVkEVER, they have 2 update their end first in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 17:41:58 .@gelliottmorris Trump is still clearly a favorite in AK, but the post debate polls show him a lot weaker. Your odds will shift with those. in reply to gelliottmorris
- 17:43:28 .@gelliottmorris That is tenuous though, so it may not last. Only two non-Google post 1st debate polls so far. AK not heavily polled. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:30:10 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 20:50:26 @ElectionGraphs just seeing this. Your forecast will bounce back once you get a non-google poll. Alaska is redder than lean Trump/ swing in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:33:29 .@gelliottmorris As mentioned in post, lots of caveats. No surprise if T lead >5% again soon. But post-debate polls show closer than before. in reply to gelliottmorris
- 21:36:15 .@gelliottmorris I see I have one new AK poll in queue to add tonight. It will bump my AK avg from 4.2% to 4.8%. Still under 5%, but barely. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:37:26 .@gelliottmorris That is CVoter though which I know you exclude along w/Google. I try to include everything, but the outliers drive me nuts! in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:40:49 .@gelliottmorris Right now w/o Google I’d be at T+9.1%. With new CVoter but no Google, would be at T+9.8% With no CVoter OR Google, T+6.6%. in reply to gelliottmorris
- 21:41:16 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:38:09 @ElectionGraphs Yeah, -Cvoter & Google I’m at Trump +6. 93% win chance https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf https://t.co/0mx6lijo3y in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:42:59 .@gelliottmorris With no Google, no CVoter, but only post 1st debate polls though, T+3.8%. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:43:21 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:40 @ElectionGraphs Are you connecting to a database online? which one? in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:44:46 .@gelliottmorris All manual data entry. :-) You can get my raw data in machine readable form here though: https://t.co/IssmhtsJVx in reply to gelliottmorris
- 21:47:04 .@gelliottmorris Iviews with me and two other “independent” trackers about methods on my podcast fr a few weeks ago: https://t.co/y7BmKWb9qU in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:47:39 .@gelliottmorris I didn’t know about your site then, or I would have invited you too. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:48:28 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:48:04 @ElectionGraphs I’d be happy to join you next time! I’ll take a listen in my spare time in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:48:46 .@gelliottmorris Thanks! Enjoy the next 29 days! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
- 21:50:00 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:49:43 @ElectionGraphs Thanks! Just for you, I’m going to re-run my forecast w/ CVoter polls to see the impact. Last time the outliers rlly skewed in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:51:02 .@gelliottmorris It will be interesting. But in my opinion Google has the biggest outlier problem! It pains me every time I add them! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
- 21:52:02 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:51:28 @ElectionGraphs My advice: stop adding them! GIGO in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 21:53:50 .@gelliottmorris Part of site’s philosophy is include just about everything. Asking 4 trouble to change criteria mid-stream. Maybe 2020. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
- 22:03:03 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:53:42 CVoter shifted probabilities by following:
AK 4%
AZ 13
VA 14
etc, etc
Not even going to go through w/ full model update. waste of my time - 22:03:06 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 22:02:19 @ElectionGraphs meant to tweet this to you, whoops in reply to gelliottmorris
- 22:11:08 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:34:14 @ElectionGraphs Gotcha. Im on board with race-tightening rhetoric re: republican states in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 22:11:09 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:37:04 @ElectionGraphs Take out Google and you’re at what, 7? in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 22:11:18 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:24 @ElectionGraphs Alright. Like I said, for Alaska I only have three polls al they’re at least a month old. Really ne… https://t.co/bQacbIZhNE in reply to ElectionGraphs
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