Abulsme.com: Tuesday, October 11th, 2016

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-10 (UTC)

07:54:27 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 07:53:35 That’s all for now. New polls in FL/PA/WI/OH/AK. Notable change in AK, so @ElectionGraphs post a little later.
17:12:41 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Alaska in play? https://t.co/BuCGcM97El
17:35:45 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:15:47 @ElectionGraphs no https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf in reply to ElectionGraphs
17:37:33 .@gelliottmorris Like the site! You’re not including the latest ASR or Moore polls? (I understand not including Google. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
17:39:48 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 17:39:07 @ElectionGraphs forecast probably hasn't adjusted yet. It pulls everything from https://t.co/eGNNVkEVER, they have 2 update their end first in reply to ElectionGraphs
17:41:58 .@gelliottmorris Trump is still clearly a favorite in AK, but the post debate polls show him a lot weaker. Your odds will shift with those. in reply to gelliottmorris
17:43:28 .@gelliottmorris That is tenuous though, so it may not last. Only two non-Google post 1st debate polls so far. AK not heavily polled. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:30:10 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 20:50:26 @ElectionGraphs just seeing this. Your forecast will bounce back once you get a non-google poll. Alaska is redder than lean Trump/ swing in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:33:29 .@gelliottmorris As mentioned in post, lots of caveats. No surprise if T lead >5% again soon. But post-debate polls show closer than before. in reply to gelliottmorris
21:36:15 .@gelliottmorris I see I have one new AK poll in queue to add tonight. It will bump my AK avg from 4.2% to 4.8%. Still under 5%, but barely. in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:37:26 .@gelliottmorris That is CVoter though which I know you exclude along w/Google. I try to include everything, but the outliers drive me nuts! in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:40:49 .@gelliottmorris Right now w/o Google I’d be at T+9.1%. With new CVoter but no Google, would be at T+9.8% With no CVoter OR Google, T+6.6%. in reply to gelliottmorris
21:41:16 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:38:09 @ElectionGraphs Yeah, -Cvoter & Google I’m at Trump +6. 93% win chance https://t.co/z6tsw462Nf https://t.co/0mx6lijo3y in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:42:59 .@gelliottmorris With no Google, no CVoter, but only post 1st debate polls though, T+3.8%. in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:43:21 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:40 @ElectionGraphs Are you connecting to a database online? which one? in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:44:46 .@gelliottmorris All manual data entry. :-) You can get my raw data in machine readable form here though: https://t.co/IssmhtsJVx in reply to gelliottmorris
21:47:04 .@gelliottmorris Iviews with me and two other вЂњindependentвЂќ trackers about methods on my podcast fr a few weeks ago: https://t.co/y7BmKWb9qU in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:47:39 .@gelliottmorris I didn’t know about your site then, or I would have invited you too. :-) in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:48:28 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:48:04 @ElectionGraphs I’d be happy to join you next time! I’ll take a listen in my spare time in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:48:46 .@gelliottmorris Thanks! Enjoy the next 29 days! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
21:50:00 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:49:43 @ElectionGraphs Thanks! Just for you, I’m going to re-run my forecast w/ CVoter polls to see the impact. Last time the outliers rlly skewed in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:51:02 .@gelliottmorris It will be interesting. But in my opinion Google has the biggest outlier problem! It pains me every time I add them! :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
21:52:02 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:51:28 @ElectionGraphs My advice: stop adding them! GIGO in reply to ElectionGraphs
21:53:50 .@gelliottmorris Part of site’s philosophy is include just about everything. Asking 4 trouble to change criteria mid-stream. Maybe 2020. :-) in reply to gelliottmorris
22:03:03 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:53:42 CVoter shifted probabilities by following:
AK 4%
AZ 13
VA 14
etc, etc
Not even going to go through w/ full model update. waste of my time
22:03:06 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 22:02:19 @ElectionGraphs meant to tweet this to you, whoops in reply to gelliottmorris
22:11:08 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:34:14 @ElectionGraphs Gotcha. Im on board with race-tightening rhetoric re: republican states in reply to ElectionGraphs
22:11:09 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:37:04 @ElectionGraphs Take out Google and you’re at what, 7? in reply to ElectionGraphs
22:11:18 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:42:24 @ElectionGraphs Alright. Like I said, for Alaska I only have three polls al they’re at least a month old. Really neвЂ¦ https://t.co/bQacbIZhNE in reply to ElectionGraphs

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-10 (UTC)

03:39:25 Poll Added: Marist w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 45% to Trump 42% https://t.co/yQSZY9VWUy
03:39:30 Full 4P results: Marist w/4P [2] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 45% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5% to Stein 3%
03:41:08 Poll Added: Marist [2] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 46% to Trump 44% https://t.co/AKh17Z3YQX
03:46:03 Poll Added: Marist w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 49% to Trump 37% https://t.co/vfkQF8w4xd
03:46:08 Full 4P results: Marist w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 49% to Trump 37% to Johnson 6% to Stein 4%
03:47:15 Poll Added: Marist [2] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 51% to Trump 39% https://t.co/5zU6U1Uo6A
03:52:45 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in PA from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% https://t.co/wt2sJZr1R1
03:52:50 Full 4P results: YouGov w/4P in PA from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 48% to Trump 40% to Johnson 4% to Stein 2%
03:56:38 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in WI from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% https://t.co/cQWyYhDa5l
03:56:43 Full 4P results: YouGov w/4P in WI from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% to Johnson 4% to Stein 1%
04:00:02 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% https://t.co/4Obrm4xnW5
04:00:07 Full 4P results: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-10-05 to 2016-10-07 – Clinton 46% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5% to Stein 2%
05:26:07 Poll Added: ASR w/4P in AK from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 30.6% to Trump 36.1% https://t.co/1SOtMiKQpb
05:26:12 Full 4P results: ASR w/4P in AK from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 30.6% to Trump 36.1% to Johnson 17.9% to Stein 6.0%
05:26:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AK has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/1SOtMiKQpb
05:41:37 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 367 to Trump 171 -> Clinton 370 to Trump 168 https://t.co/vkhBNDt4mV
05:50:01 Turns out that ASR poll had a 2-way result too. Adding it now and reweighting the 4-way from before.
05:51:00 Poll Added: ASR [2] in AK from 2016-09-28 to 2016-10-02 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 45.8% https://t.co/hukoeGLdvB
07:13:13 Found an RV version of the PA Marist poll. Adding and reweighting.
07:15:27 Poll Added: Marist RV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48% to Trump 36% https://t.co/RHqy5Wykzp
07:15:32 Full 4P results: Marist RV w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 48% to Trump 36% to Johnson 7% to Stein 4%
07:25:26 Also a 2 way RV for that PA Marist poll. Adding and reweighting.
07:27:31 Poll Added: Marist RV [4] in PA from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-06 – Clinton 50% to Trump 38% https://t.co/wHDylVopLv
07:29:08 Adding Marist RV results for FL too.
07:31:18 Poll Added: Marist RV [4] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% https://t.co/xBS7jHf5iF
07:32:56 Poll Added: Marist RV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39% https://t.co/KfDfrf3IL6
07:33:01 Full 4P results: Marist RV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-10-03 to 2016-10-05 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39% to Johnson 6% to Stein 3%
07:53:35 That’s all for now. New polls in FL/PA/WI/OH/AK. Notable change in AK, so @ElectionGraphs post a little later.
17:13:01 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 17:12:41 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Alaska in play? https://t.co/BuCGcM97El

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-10 (UTC)

01:09:49 Lots of sniffs again. Or is it a wheeze? #debate
01:10:30 Anderson going back to the question! #debate
01:10:50 Trump denies! #debate
01:11:16 Does Clinton up the ante here? Or let it go? #debate
01:11:49 He pivoted right away. Anderson going back again. #debate
01:12:25 Anderson flat out вЂњHave you ever sexually assaulted women?вЂќ. Trump denies. America! #debate
01:14:03 Clinton answering calmly. Going straight at it. Trump looking mad and pacing. Can he hold it together? #debate
01:14:45 Retweeted @kairyssdal 01:14:36 I think — tbh — that Hillary's being restrained.
01:15:08 This calm, cool, slow devastation is brutal. #debate
01:15:55 Retweeted @rmoraille 01:15:39 @abulsme she is killing it in reply to abulsme
01:16:19 Trump asks to respond, and immediately pivots to things not even remotely related. #debate
01:16:30 The sniffs are strong in this one. #debate
01:16:59 Wow. More about the tape. I thought they were going to move to something else. #debate
01:17:53 Bill! Here comes the Bill accusation! #debate
01:18:04 Sniffs all the way through! #debate
01:18:10 Retweeted @imbou 01:17:45 @abulsme there he goes! in reply to abulsme
01:18:59 Trump is doing this, but isn’t doing it well. Anxious to see Clinton’s response. She has been prepared for this for months. #debate
01:20:06 Retweeted @imbou 01:19:55 @abulsme boom! in reply to imbou
01:21:10 Trump’s response to this has to be вЂњyou never apologized to these womenвЂќ. Does Clinton do it? #debate
01:21:48 Retweeted @TheFix 01:21:39 Hillary Clinton: You apologize
Donald Trump: No, you apologize
01:22:49 Trump is repeating all the talking points of the unhinged folks who follow him. Nothing at all to appeal to anyone else. #debate
01:23:37 If Trump wins, he is going to assign a special prosecutor to go after Clinton. #winner #debate
01:23:46 Retweeted @imbou 01:23:34 @abulsme he dropped his grenade and now has nothing in reply to abulsme
01:25:32 Trump is slowly losing it. Like last time, managed about 20 minutes. We have 70 minutes to go. #debate
01:27:24 Retweeted @HeerJeet 01:27:11 "You'd be in jail." That's it. Clinton has baited him
01:28:13 Trump getting animated. Rambling. Sniffling. #debate
01:28:20 Retweeted @rmoraille 01:27:39 @abulsme oh, boy. A low in our history. in reply to abulsme
01:28:35 Moderators need to just get out of the way and let them go at it. #debate
01:28:48 Trump interrupting every 10 seconds again. #debate
01:29:00 вЂњOK Donald.вЂќ #debate
01:29:37 Wow. Trump going off on Anderson Cooper. He is losing it fast. #debate
01:29:48 Retweeted @andrewflowers 01:29:35 I’m calling it: He’s going to walk off the stage during live TV
01:30:08 Retweeted @bpmehlman 01:23:16 This is practically identical to Lincoln-Douglas 1858. Uncanny.
01:30:38 Is Trump checking out Hillary? #debate
01:31:10 Retweeted @shannimcg 01:30:37 trump is literally lurking & standing threateningly behind HRC
WHAT THE FUCK

#debate
01:31:19 Retweeted @bobcesca_go 01:30:42 Trump simply can't hold it together for more than 28 minutes without losing his shit. Same as last time. #debate
01:31:45 Clinton giving answer actually on policy. Trump will reply with attacks. #debate
01:32:39 Retweeted @brianstelter 01:31:35 https://t.co/SGR4PW6oqD
01:33:23 OK, he isn’t doing another unhinged attack. Using this answer as a moment to collect himself a bit. #debate
01:33:58 Retweeted @ZackKopplin 01:33:29 God this man knows nothing about policy
01:34:38 Retweeted @KristiCCoulter 01:34:20 THE HORROR OF CANADA.
01:34:47 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 01:34:39 Trump literally praised universal healthcare at the GOP debates… in reply to THELuisAMendez
01:35:01 Retweeted @NBCNightlyNews 01:33:45 After several minutes with candidates debating about Clinton emails, Trump asks moderator why he's not bringing up Clinton emails. #debate
01:36:04 OK, we’ve had a few moments, but this is not as unhinged as I expected yet. Amp it up Trump. #debate
01:36:31 Retweeted @AP_Politics 01:31:59 BREAKING: Donald Trump says if he was in charge of laws in the U.S., Hillary Clinton would 'be in jail'
01:37:17 Retweeted @imbou 01:37:04 @abulsme dude he is getting scary in reply to abulsme
01:37:55 .@imbou He has’t yet said any words that the networks have to bleep, or tried to hit her. So it is a win for him. #debate in reply to imbou
01:38:51 Retweeted @doctorow 01:36:46 Sniff 54 #debatetonight
01:40:57 What is Trump doing to that chair? #debate
01:42:07 Retweeted @MoiraCMcC 01:41:59 @abulsme They let you do that when you're famous. in reply to abulsme
01:42:36 Retweeted @ananavarro 01:42:28 Dear GOP: Congrats! We nominated a misogynist, racist, vulgar, lying, ignorant, mad man as our nominee. Oh, and he breaths like Darth Vader.
01:42:53 вЂњNo, answer the question.вЂќ #debate
01:43:46 This whole debate so far, Clinton calm, collected, in control. Trump ranting and barely on the edge. #debate
01:44:11 We are just about half way. #debate
01:44:46 Retweeted @joshrogin 01:44:39 Trump's fear mongering on Syrian refugees is an example of the "Islamophobia" he says is "a shame."
01:46:53 The universal rule of debates, if you are complaining about time or the rules, you are already losing badly. #debate
01:48:48 I’m barely noticing the вЂњtown hallвЂќ aspect of this debate. Which is actually probably good. #debate
01:49:50 Retweeted @mattyglesias 01:49:38 Clinton herself not going with the bizarre вЂњmaybe the speech excerpts are fakeвЂќ line we’ve heard from some surrogates.
01:50:56 I wouldn’t have gone with this foreign governments trying to influence the election stuff in the debate. Leave that to surrogates. #debate
01:51:10 вЂњShe says things Wikileaks?вЂќ #debate
01:51:38 Retweeted @doctorow 01:51:28 Sniff 65 #debatetonight
01:51:54 вЂњI know nothing about RussiaвЂќ – Trump #debate
01:52:22 Retweeted @RosieGray 01:51:57 Oh my god he's plugging the new hotel
01:52:37 Trump is completely incoherent here. #debate
01:54:30 So far the first #debate was still worse for Trump than this one I think. Not that he is doing well here but I think he did worse last time.
01:54:53 Of course, the last one didn’t really go completely off the rails until the last 30 minutes. #debate
01:55:19 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 01:55:04 First 20 minutes alone hard to come back from https://t.co/9QtJgoJDBK
01:55:54 вЂњHe lives in an alternative realityвЂќ. – Clinton on Trump #debate
01:57:03 Trump swaying strangely and not looking at Clinton. #debate
01:57:19 He’s resting on the chair. No stamina. #debate
01:57:29 Retweeted @marcambinder 01:57:08 Just looks weird. https://t.co/jFscpIRDXQ
01:58:20 Retweeted @imbou 01:58:03 @abulsme that's why I said he was scary his body language is scary in reply to abulsme
01:58:38 Trump just directly admitted the no federal taxes thing. #debate
01:58:52 Retweeted @MichaelSkolnik 01:58:39 Donald Trump just admitted to paying to no federal income taxes since 1995. #Debate
01:59:38 Retweeted @arunindy 01:59:24 Trump needs chair to stand up. Lacks stamina. Low energy. Sad! #debate https://t.co/G5kZAolfuw
02:00:11 Retweeted @imbou 01:59:57 @abulsme did she write the tax code?
02:00:53 Trump has no understanding of how government works at all. #debate
02:01:51 Trump’s hand is in his belt! Run!!! #debate
02:03:47 Retweeted @imbou 02:03:36 @rmoraille @abulsme this thing is a mess and Trump is trying to be a bully in reply to rmoraille
02:03:59 .@imbou @rmoraille He doesn’t know how to be anything else. in reply to imbou
02:04:08 Retweeted @rmoraille 02:02:06 @imbou @abulsme no novelist could come up with this disaster. in reply to imbou
02:04:19 Retweeted @EsotericCD 02:04:10 The simple fact that Trump isn't shouting, and has kept his temper set on "snark" rather than "rage," has made him much more effective. in reply to EsotericCD
02:05:11 Trump is managing not to completely lose it. He has come close a couple times, but he has kept better control than last time. #debate
02:05:19 Retweeted @rmoraille 02:04:25 @imbou @abulsme trying? It is his nature. in reply to imbou
02:05:49 Clinton really is better off letting the вЂњRussia wants himвЂќ be raised by others. #debate
02:05:56 Retweeted @imbou 02:05:28 @rmoraille @abulsme he is working at it harder than usual in reply to rmoraille
02:06:31 вЂњShe was there for the line in the sand.вЂќ вЂњActually, I was gone by then.вЂќ #debate
02:08:34 вЂњLet me repeat the questionвЂќ #debate
02:09:14 Trump disagreeing with Pence during the debate. Unity! #debate
02:09:53 Retweeted @peterwsinger 02:09:24 Holy Shit.
Trump just praised Assad, Russia, and Iran! That is most surprising part of this debate.
02:10:05 Retweeted @MichaelSkolnik 02:09:23 Whoa. Trump on Pence on ISIS: "He and I haven't spoken and I disagreeвЂќ #Debate
02:10:43 Retweeted @imbou 02:09:45 @rmoraille @abulsme did he just say he hasn't talked to his running mate???? in reply to imbou
02:11:15 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 02:11:02 WTF is he talking about? What is this? in reply to THELuisAMendez
02:11:40 Trump has no idea on anything he is talking about. None. #debate
02:12:14 Pence’s staff seemed to be leaking today that Pence was holding his options open pending the debate. How’d he like that answer? #debate
02:13:08 Retweeted @chrislhayes 02:12:59 "How stupid is our country?" That's a new one!
02:13:14 Retweeted @NickKristof 02:12:57 Trump so far this debate has fought Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, the moderators, his own running mate and, most of all, reality.
02:16:37 вЂњI would get it by osmosis.вЂќ – Trump. OK then. #debate
02:17:25 Only 15 minutes left. This has not lived up to my expectations in terms of the level of fireworks. #debate
02:17:51 I wonder what Clinton will pull out in the last five minutes that will set Trump off for the next week this time. #debate
02:18:14 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 02:17:52 This is almost over. Impression is first 20 minutes brutal for Trump. A bit more even after that. Don't think debate moves much either way. in reply to THELuisAMendez
02:19:12 Anderson asking about deplorables. #debate
02:21:40 Anderson asking about вЂњcheck out the sex tapeвЂќ. Trump denies he said it. #debate
02:22:42 вЂњI’m not unproud.вЂќ – Trump #debate
02:26:44 Alex lasted until 5 minutes before the end. Almost made it.
02:28:37 This debate will not change a single mind. Well, not many.
02:32:43 Hmm. Clinton actually knows what she is talking about. Trump dies not. Surprise! #debate
02:33:49 Retweeted @SCClemons 02:14:03 Major rumors swirling in real time, right now that @mike_pence has asked 2 be removed from the Presidential ticket. Historic Wow. #debate
02:33:58 Retweeted @imbou 02:33:47 @rmoraille @abulsme trump knows nothing about the economy in reply to rmoraille
02:34:33 Ha. Asked each to name something positive about the other. Fun! #debate
02:35:56 Saying вЂњhis kidsвЂќ is not really a real answer BTW. #debate
02:36:50 вЂњShe doesn’t quit, she doesn’t give up.вЂќ Trump actually gives a real answer to the question. #debate
02:37:24 And it is done! #debate
02:39:09 Bottom line this was not anywhere near as bad as it could have been. Trump did better than last time. So no additional damage. #debate
02:40:44 Clinton won, but he didn’t put him away, despite his looking really bad in the first 20 min. Trump maybe slowed down his implosion. #debate
02:41:36 And yeah, for the most part Trump avoided taking bait this time. Amazing. I expected a complete melt-down. Did not get it. #debate
02:43:56 Retweeted @THELuisAMendez 02:43:09 My guess is the post debate polls say Trump won but not by dominant margins like Hillary did. If they show him losing…
02:44:06 Retweeted @KirstenPowers 02:42:54 Hillary won this debate, but ppl will say it's a draw b/c he beat expectations and cleared the low bar set by his last debate performance.
02:44:46 Retweeted @pbump 02:28:54 Trump's SCOTUS list included Sen. Mike Lee, who yesterday said Trump should drop out.
02:46:25 Of course, not changing minds is a win for C. She is crushing him right now. He needs to massively move things to have a shot again. #debate
02:47:24 Retweeted @JYSexton 02:46:47 Um. There's a lot of chatter coming out of Indiana.
02:51:32 Clinton did not take advantage of many chances to go in for the kill. Was counting on him doing it to himself. He didn’t. #debate
02:51:59 Retweeted @EdEspinoza 02:50:00 There was nothing that @realDonaldTrump did tonight to add to his base of voters. Nothing. #debates
02:53:16 Clinton completely ignored Trump’s attempt to bring Bill Clinton’s women into the conversation though. That attack fell flat. #debate
02:56:51 Retweeted @drewharwell 02:41:16 Let's quit saying lines like "Trump gave the fact-checkers a field day." It's a too-cute way of saying he lied a lot.
02:57:21 Retweeted @JohnAvlon 02:49:51 Topline: Trump doesn’t really apologize for tape, disses Pence, threatens to jail opponent, admits zero taxes, Hillary doesn’t put him away.
03:00:44 Retweeted @imbou 03:00:31 @abulsme I think in the heat of the moment we didn't realize what a cluster fuck he created the way he dissed his running mate! in reply to abulsme
03:01:14 .@imbou I don’t think Pence will be happy tonight. Staff tweeted congratulations aside. in reply to imbou
03:03:20 Retweeted @SamWangPhD 03:02:41 Turn it off.
Today PEC's Clinton win probability hit 95%. In past races that's been a Rubicon.вЂ¦ https://t.co/YB25AIPQS9
03:03:33 Retweeted @Acosta 03:00:44 Bill Clinton accusers are working spin room for Trump campaign right now
03:05:26 Retweeted @davidaxelrod 01:33:27 Just for record, there were no ads in which @MichelleObama attacked @HillaryClinton. I know. I was there. #debates
03:07:07 Retweeted @bjones 01:55:53 Ok guys this is really the best picture of the entire election. https://t.co/VGjsp8NQ0r
03:08:38 Retweeted @EricHolder 01:41:52 So @realDonaldTrump will ORDER his AG to take certain actions-When Nixon tried that his AG courageously resigned. Trump is dangerous/unfit
03:09:52 Retweeted @thomaswright08 03:08:21 Trump did well enough to stay in the race which is a HUGE win for Clinton
03:11:00 Retweeted @danpfeiffer 02:39:28 Trump did nothing to change the race, he is still losing by a lot with no real path to victory
03:11:12 Retweeted @vavreck 03:09:38 So here's the big takeaway: Matters little if Trump held his base tonight. He needs to make up 6 points in 30 days. Did this do it? No.
03:11:47 Retweeted @SethAMandel 02:37:42 Trump got better as the night went on and he stopped talking about sexually assaulting women and jailing his opponent.
03:13:30 Retweeted @FHQ 03:12:46 At this point, everything else is noise. This is how to view things for the next four weeks: Did Trump add anything?
https://t.co/95v6urykbr
03:13:41 Retweeted @ananavarro 01:54:07 Can we all agree right now to never set foot or spend a penny at Trump place on Pennsylvania Ave, DC? My ass ain't never setting foot there.
03:14:18 Retweeted @BryFun1 02:46:46 Tiffany Trump skillfully pulls away from her dad's kiss #debate https://t.co/aFDvMCMElu
03:20:39 Retweeted @arunindy 03:20:27 Pundits: "Well, Trump didn't shit himself, his head didn't spin around and vomit blood, so he won" the #debate
03:23:09 Retweeted @megynkelly 03:22:56 .@KatrinaPierson: @mike_pence will stay on as VP nominee. #debate #KellyFile
03:24:19 Retweeted @cspiesdc 03:23:21 That raises some fun legal questions… https://t.co/1x6MTbEAOu
03:28:07 Retweeted @spooknine 03:27:49 What, really, is the difference here? https://t.co/7NXiUPfuJ4
03:28:16 Retweeted @fivefifths 03:14:25 "Trump is like someone who only has 300 words of a 1000 word essay"-best analysis from students here
04:05:36 Disappointed Clinton didn’t use вЂњYou pitiful little manвЂќ tonight. One more shot on the 19th!
04:05:48 Retweeted @ArmsControlWonk 04:05:38 Now I know why Trump took that married woman to a furniture store … https://t.co/yqX2RuInOe
04:06:46 Retweeted @dandrezner 04:05:35 As a political scientist let me assure you it's not a good sign when a presidential candidate threatens to prosecute his electoral opponent.
04:07:43 Retweeted @ktumulty 03:25:52 This somehow evokes Sonny and Cher singing "I Got You Babe." https://t.co/1pWqyaua4j
04:08:21 Retweeted @ThatBoyKdSingh 02:11:59 "im gonna help The African Americans… who, are so great" #debate https://t.co/mJ3qVIz7Pj
05:02:40 Retweeted @christadubill 03:50:41 came in restroom to get ready for news. Young woman crying. She was not expecting media but shared… #Debates2016 https://t.co/4ZZqMjlBTy
05:34:19 Retweeted @jonfavs 05:25:23 Republicans thinking that Trump's absurd performance was "good enough to stop the bleeding" is exactly why they're in this mess.
05:36:00 Retweeted @joshtpm 04:24:05 Hmmm. Pence is cancelling appearnce at fundraiser in New Jersey tomorrow >>> https://t.co/FRlchfpTc0 via @TPM
05:37:08 Retweeted @JenniferJJacobs 05:27:27 Expect Team Trump to keep hounding Clinton for her husband's long-ago behavior, I'm told. His strategists gleefully believe it rattled her.
05:38:54 Retweeted @alexburnsNYT 05:26:40 Notion that Trump arrested his fall is based on — what?
05:40:39 Retweeted @Dawisha 05:12:07 RNC schedules call with members for 5pm ET Monday night https://t.co/kPFbueDhMY
05:42:07 Retweeted @jameswest2010 02:02:37 What. Is. He. Doing. https://t.co/6uE8sf09ul
05:42:50 Retweeted @xeni 05:22:42 Is it snowing at Mar a Lago?<symbol><symbol>вќ„пёЏ<symbol> https://t.co/hK3wCe9gD3
05:43:59 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom 04:50:50 I cannot believe I have to argue with other US citizens about the dangers of a presidential candidate vowing to prosecute his opponent.
06:05:29 Retweeted @mckaycoppins 06:04:31 Of *course* this was Bannon's idea. https://t.co/FG1jcf0US1 https://t.co/nj9eRrA74g
06:09:06 Reading – Trump’s debate plan to seat Bill Clinton’s accusers in family box was thwarted (Costa/Balz/Rucker) https://t.co/E5UrKVO16v
06:14:03 Retweeted @jbarro 05:56:27 Trump wanted the Clinton accusers in the Trump family box. CPD refuses. Trump camp furious, now threatening to exitвЂ¦ https://t.co/KlEQDqArOR
06:15:22 Retweeted @mckaycoppins 05:58:24 the actual reason Repubs think the debate "stopped the bleeding" is that there was 60-minute window when we weren't talking about that video
06:15:58 Retweeted @jbarro 05:57:25 Honestly the CPD saved the Trump campaign from a stunt that would have backfired. in reply to jbarro
06:38:06 The more time passes after the debate ended, the more my twitter feed (and other commentary) is moving away from Trump and to Clinton.
06:39:36 Retweeted @saletan 04:06:22 63% of respondents in CNN post-debate poll say Trump grabbed way fewer female body parts than expected. Big win for the Donald.
06:42:03 Retweeted @HuffPostPol 05:47:07 The stuff of nightmares. #debate https://t.co/4TkeTyV2G2
07:07:25 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 2016-10-09 20:00:37 Gonna be funny when after all the Johnson hype it's actually McMuffin who wins electoral votes…
07:18:23 Retweeted @hominidviews 2016-10-09 19:04:44 Then, one morning, the top RNC leadership had a collective epiphany:
"Of course!"
"WE! NEED! SUPER DELEGATES!"
07:19:36 Retweeted @ppppolls 2016-10-09 18:05:13 2 of the first 3 private polls we've done that were conducted Friday-Saturday have Trump in the 70s of the Republican vote
07:53:57 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 07:53:35 That’s all for now. New polls in FL/PA/WI/OH/AK. Notable change in AK, so @ElectionGraphs post a little later.
07:58:20 Retweeted @NickKristof 01:26:49 I've spent lots of time reporting in countries where winners do imprison losing candidates. Believe me, we don't want to go there.
07:59:13 Retweeted @benshapiro 03:41:54 This exchange is the set-up. The next week is going to be the punch line. https://t.co/yppE7KHvvL
08:04:01 Retweeted @TeaAndCopy 07:04:43 ADVISOR: What are you going to do whilst Hillary is speaking?
TRUMP: I'ma fuck a chair
ADVISOR: Please don't do thaвЂ¦ https://t.co/OyEgBqoaG1
08:04:55 Retweeted @tauriqmoosa 03:19:34 Woke up to news that Trump stated he'd jail his opponent if he got into office. Dictatorship has never announced itself so loudly.
15:16:33 Retweeted @JakeSherman 15:14:42 BREAKING– @SpeakerRyan tells house republicans he won't defend trump and will focus the next 29 days on keeping the house majority.
15:29:08 Retweeted @BrentRosenbaum 15:09:46 Normals no longer care about emails and haven't care about Bill's problems for decades
15:30:03 Retweeted @costareports 14:27:41 In calls this morning, many Rs privately want to defect from Trump. But they say the debate gave them pause since he roused their base.
15:50:53 Retweeted @DouthatNYT 15:27:43 Memo to Congressional Republicans: The doors of hell are locked on the inside.
16:03:03 Reading – Republican elites' Trump quandary is a long-term GOP problem (@leedrutman) https://t.co/3qGVweaiK6
16:17:16 Retweeted @Heminator 16:06:10 To quote Donald Trump, "You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in." https://t.co/hob2S5eud0
16:17:27 Retweeted @GlennThrush 16:06:07 Well that was a short debate honeymoon
16:27:49 Retweeted @JonahNRO 16:26:12 New polls coming in now on my monitor, sir. https://t.co/OJri5HVUz1
16:28:29 Retweeted @costareports 14:31:30 Meanwhile, Trump circle gloating. Privately mocking elected Rs who are agonizing. One laughed and said, "We don't care."
16:29:02 Retweeted @goldengateblond 16:26:37 For anyone too young to remember: the Bill Clinton years made right-wing talking heads VERY rich. If Hillary wins,вЂ¦ https://t.co/N2lqv68LMF
16:39:59 Retweeted @DanAmira 16:39:19 Really wish someone at the debate last night would have asked Trump what "I moved on her like a bitch" means
16:40:56 Retweeted @BayoumiMoustafa 01:38:42 I'm a Muslim, and I would like to report a crazy man threatening a woman on a stage in Missouri. #debate
17:12:27 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Alaska in play? https://t.co/hZ9SIxWLE4
17:58:51 Retweeted @aedwardslevy 17:38:14 A quick comparison of 2012 vs. 2016 HuffPost Pollster averages https://t.co/o6hZ6bkc1n
19:44:18 Listening to Keepin' it 1600 Ep. 40: Second Presidential Debate Live After-Show
via iCatcher! https://t.co/xhls8caHRP
20:02:33 Retweeted @prchovanec 19:56:11 The most disturbing part of 2016: everyone seems to equate being moral with being weak, and being amoral with being strong.
20:05:53 Reading – Why Mike Pence is sticking with Donald Trump (Amber Phillips) https://t.co/jjSkMdD9iw
21:15:35 Listening to The Axe Files with David Axelrod Ep. 86 – Gary Johnson
via iCatcher! https://t.co/NIQHxVeGKd
21:51:42 Retweeted @gelliottmorris 21:51:28 @ElectionGraphs My advice: stop adding them! GIGO in reply to ElectionGraphs
22:43:38 Retweeted @SteveKopack 22:43:07 <symbol><symbol> Joint statement on behalf of MGM and Mark Burnett https://t.co/FU7OurJTL6
22:47:24 Retweeted @katherinemiller 22:46:51 https://t.co/rxb2OFcBfX
23:01:30 Retweeted @HillaryClinton 23:01:10 .@ForeignPolicy has never endorsed a candidate for political office.
Until now: https://t.co/UdsK7rdqAy
23:16:19 Watching – Donald and Hillary – I've Had The Time of My Life (ReChemical) https://t.co/gRUPsrfjlm
23:24:23 Retweeted @gdebenedetti 18:19:54 Hillary Clinton was "really tickled by" this tweet, her comms director @jmpalmieri said on the campaign plane justвЂ¦ https://t.co/NZJxDq8uU3
23:29:10 Retweeted @RealBPhil 23:04:36 So NeverTrump leaving GOP bc of Trump, and pro-Trump leaving GOP bc of NeverTrump. How can there be a civil war when neither side wants it?