- 02:42:03 Retweeted @entpnerd 02:33:21 @ElectionGraphs Been seeing large ups and downs in graph for Trump vs. Clinton in 2 days, starting well before the debates. What's going on?
- 02:43:51 .@entpnerd Florida, Ohio, North Carolina all very close. Single polls can move them across center line & cause big electoral college moves. in reply to entpnerd
- 02:45:45 .@entpnerd There were good polls for C that moved them toward her with midpoints around the 18th-20th. Good ones for T right before debate. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 02:47:43 .@entpnerd Actual % moves not that large, but since those 3 states crossed zero, big EC moves. Look at Tipping pt chart 4 more stable trend. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 02:51:37 .@entpnerd As long as there are states with large num of EV right near center line, small moves in state avg will cause big EC moves. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 02:55:38 .@entpnerd As of right now (I’m still in midst of a round of poll updating) there are states w/ 153 EV under 5% margin. 95 EV under 2% marg. in reply to ElectionGraphs
- 03:01:39 Retweeted @cody_k 03:01:07 @ElectionGraphs Same thing at RCP with volatility. Big EV states back and forth… crossing sides.
https://t.co/ISpHnYIPgA - 06:44:50 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 06:44:33 Done with another round of poll updates. 50 states + DC. Notable changes in KS/NM/MO/ME-All and tipping pt. @ElectionGraphs blog post later.
- 16:39:19 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Poll Churn (mostly pre-debate) https://t.co/ry1Rgk5s2v
- 22:00:13 Retweeted @entpnerd 05:33:56 @ElectionGraphs & @cody_k Thanks for the great explanations. Much appreciated. :-)
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