Abulsme.com: Tuesday, August 23rd, 2016

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

15:16:34 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

13:43:51 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% https://t.co/qq0uxW96pS
13:43:56 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
13:55:44 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in IA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% https://t.co/XuKQvDW5rK
13:55:49 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in IA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
14:00:08 Poll Added: Gravis in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 42% to Trump 46% https://t.co/NAic1ZPLvI
14:02:23 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 37% to Trump 41% https://t.co/IA3qmTOFid
14:02:28 Full 4P results logged: Gravis w/4P in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 37% to Trump 41% to Johnson 7% to Stein 3%
14:07:51 Poll Added: Gravis in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/eH56xRc3b5
14:09:54 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% https://t.co/b6N5LLku2N
14:10:00 Full 4P results logged: Gravis w/4P in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
15:13:15 Consensus seems to be that the CEPEX poll in PA ( https://t.co/erlc2nz633 ) is not вЂњrealвЂќ. For the moment I am not including it. (1/3)
15:13:47 I’ll watch out for more info on this poll though, and will reconsider if there seems to be good reason to include this data point. (2/3) in reply to ElecCollPolls
15:14:44 This goes against my вЂњinclude everything and let the average sort it outвЂќ philosophy though, so feeling squishy on this choiceвЂ¦ (3/3) in reply to ElecCollPolls
15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.
17:31:18 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 15:42:10 @ElecCollPolls real or not, the methodology is abysmal. Quite possibly the worst poll I've seen this cycle. in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:31:49 .@seth_b_samuels So, I’m guessing your vote is not to include it. :-) in reply to seth_b_samuels
18:20:34 Retweeted @hominidviews 17:47:05 @ElecCollPolls @seth_b_samuels The 7.1% MOE is way too large for N=1000. No serious explanation for the discrepancy. in reply to ElecCollPolls
18:23:43 .@hominidviews @seth_b_samuels Everyone seems to agree it is a poll with questionable methods, but is that enuf to exclude from the average? in reply to hominidviews
19:33:42 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:20:37 @ElecCollPolls Ha, yes. I get the "include everything and let the average sort it out" thing, but this isn't a real poll. It's just garbage. in reply to ElecCollPolls
19:33:45 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:21:52 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls Not necessarily. MoE for 1k for *each candidate* is ~3.1. So MoE for the difference is about 2x that. in reply to hominidviews
19:33:49 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:23:00 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls the big problem is that they called people and didn't control for race or age, which are the two biggest (1/2) in reply to hominidviews
19:33:53 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:23:39 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls predictors of both response rate and party affiliation. (2/2) in reply to seth_b_samuels
19:33:56 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:25:50 @ElecCollPolls @hominidviews you can do whatever you want obviously, but to my mind this is not a data point, it's just noise. in reply to ElecCollPolls
19:35:57 .@seth_b_samuels @hominidviews I have heard LOTS of reasons to ignore this, but so far none for including it, so still leaning againstвЂ¦ in reply to seth_b_samuels
22:16:49 Retweeted @the_scrivener 21:33:41 @ElecCollPolls if methodology was to call the first 1000 people in the Scranton phone book, it's a methodology but obviously not real data in reply to ElecCollPolls
22:16:52 Retweeted @the_scrivener 21:34:40 @ElecCollPolls this poll is so obviously flawed, no difference. All Friday poll, no weight to age or gender. Landline only. I mean… in reply to the_scrivener
22:16:55 Retweeted @hominidviews 22:11:47 In which I engage in wonky fisking….https://t.co/bdG1LGmr8O https://t.co/X1Y4ewKNRq

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

00:15:44 Retweeted @docrocktex26 2016-08-10 16:14:12 The GOP will forever be known as the party that ran a White supremacist in rebuttal to the first Black POTUS. Claim them at your own peril. in reply to docrocktex26
01:29:58 Retweeted @crowguye 2016-08-21 23:57:51 @RJSzczerba @JeriLRyan
The full version is even better https://t.co/auIrZ0ONWl in reply to RJSzczerba
04:46:24 Reading – A luxury cruise ship sets sail for the Arctic, thanks to climate change (Dennis/Mooney) https://t.co/XrGBbrsvrS
04:49:16 Retweeted @DrinkSolaPop 2016-08-21 23:50:24 my stomach is in knots right now https://t.co/uUDUreIaWU
13:04:04 Retweeted @MattGertz 12:46:42 Not sure on what planet Trump's real estate and personal brand empire isn't a bigger conflict of interest than Clinton's charity. in reply to MattGertz
13:07:23 Retweeted @kylegriffin1 12:41:30 Kellyanne Conway tells NBC News Trump talked abt debates y'day w/ advisers, but said right now, "classic debate prep doesn't apply to him."
15:17:19 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.
15:41:17 Retweeted @AndrewKirell 13:22:11 вЂњWhy are you laughing?вЂќ My god, this video of Pence on Fox News is incredible. https://t.co/iYGF8VUKkV https://t.co/B1q6LxaiVf
16:51:08 Listening to The Trump-nado Could Blow The (GOP) House Down
via iCatcher! https://t.co/mjKy7suGQr
18:53:13 Retweeted @NASASunEarth 18:17:42 We have re-established contact with STEREO-B! DSN locked on at 6:27pm ET on Aug. 21. More: https://t.co/hpwfJCzmXH https://t.co/3Zuwd5b7es
18:53:47 Retweeted @justinjm1 18:30:34 Jimmy Carter says he believed he had 2-3 weeks to live https://t.co/C0DAnZ6lDN
19:14:53 Retweeted @imbou 19:14:39 @justinjm1 @abulsme you gotta love this guy, regardless of what you think of his presidency. in reply to justinjm1
19:47:16 Retweeted @imbou 19:35:33 @abulsme Will trump release his tax returns before election? #trumptax
19:47:28 .@imbou No. He won’t. in reply to imbou
19:48:36 Retweeted @imbou 19:47:44 @abulsme vote!!! in reply to abulsme
19:49:26 .@imbou Oh, was that a poll? I have to open the crappy official Twitter client to see those. PfftвЂ¦ in reply to imbou
20:23:21 Reading – Why You Should Follow Your Roommate on Social Media (Michael Nunez) https://t.co/yi6xghVmc7
20:30:27 Retweeted @imbou 20:28:03 @abulsme you curmudgeon you in reply to abulsme
20:46:02 Reading – Gawker Was Murdered by Gaslight (Tom Scocca) https://t.co/jV0kAulJKa
21:08:18 Retweeted @aravosis 20:38:41 Of course, I had no idea about the allegations until Trump sued over them and now every outlet is mentioning them. https://t.co/c2kyLaLkte
21:10:29 Reading – Clinton Foundation Staffer Sought Access To State On Behalf Of Donor, New Email Shows (Kyle Blaine) https://t.co/9oIxmzG5O6
21:28:46 Retweeted @ClancyKIRO7 20:59:00 Mill Creek woman who collects new shoes 4 low-income kids found this at rented storage facility. @KIRO7Seattle at 5p https://t.co/D6GdluZt9A
21:53:34 Retweeted @kricou 21:20:02 Holy cow I have been think-pieced. It's not a think piece about how awesome I am. But it's fair. https://t.co/3GlmbW3dAd via @doublexmag
22:30:18 Retweeted @hominidviews 22:11:47 In which I engage in wonky fisking….https://t.co/bdG1LGmr8O https://t.co/X1Y4ewKNRq
22:58:21 Reading – Did Trumpers Just Hit An Immigration Wall? (@joshtpm) https://t.co/coocwHe3NU