- 00:08:03 Retweeted @MaggieJordanACN 00:07:28 GOP senators skipping 2016 convention
Award for the Best Excuse goes to Sen Jeff Flake
"I have to mow my lawn."
- 00:58:40 Retweeted @liliankim7 00:35:11 Parents say 300lb security robot @StanfordShop knocks over their son and runs over his foot. https://t.co/5IZ4oOkkNi
- 05:34:56 Retweeted @seanbonner 05:32:43 Pokemon Go can't read your email. Relax. https://t.co/s2GJchMHfd #link
- 05:51:38 Retweeted @jpwilloughby 2016-07-11 21:24:13 @abulsme @Taniel Which is why #NeverTrump will be issuing a minority report from the rules committee to change the rules… in reply to abulsme
- 05:51:42 Retweeted @jpwilloughby 2016-07-11 21:24:23 @abulsme @Taniel …which will be approved by a majority of delegates. in reply to abulsme
- 06:20:26 Retweeted @ArmsControlWonk 05:54:07 This is a pithy retelling of the 1979 "training tape" incident by @zbig. https://t.co/MPAs7e9wcF
- 07:15:51 Retweeted @GugsM 2016-07-11 21:33:00 An important thought. https://t.co/6DaEDSXLCg
- 08:51:37 Retweeted @guardian 08:34:29 Larry the cat will not be evicted from No 10, Cabinet Office confirms https://t.co/NlpyhIaqnJ
- 08:52:36 Retweeted @warrenellis 2016-07-11 11:28:18 Theresa May's team arrives to give statement https://t.co/C5A2G4rkAu
- 15:10:46 Sorry @imbou -> Biden 'Not Interested' in Re-Upping VP, Says Clinton Proposals More Trustworthy (Serena Marshall) https://t.co/7uY5DyhN9X
- 15:27:02 Retweeted @imbou 15:22:24 @abulsme <symbol> in reply to abulsme
- 15:29:24 Retweeted @daveweigel 15:28:57 Here’s the money part of Sanders’s speech: https://t.co/XuTfMBI1bY https://t.co/hlfLIaR2Od
- 15:29:29 Retweeted @GareBearEsq 15:28:37 Hearing a few boos from Sanders fans, but the cheers are clearly outnumbering the boo birds by tenfold
- 15:29:43 Retweeted @GideonResnick 15:28:29 "Secretary Clinton has won the Democratic nominating process," Sanders says to cheers and boos
- 15:29:50 Retweeted @HayesBrown 15:28:42 Now we all know what Bernie's face looked like as a kid when he was made to eat his vegetables
- 15:30:08 Retweeted @BreakingNews 15:28:41 Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for president https://t.co/5VgkMCSLO5
- 15:32:13 I see Bernie hanging on 2 platform changes as the benefit his campaign brought. Too bad platforms are useless pieces of paper with no force.
- 15:34:12 The real test for post-Bernie will be if is long term movement of party in his direction. Won’t know for years and result not clear now.
- 15:35:29 Young people liking him is sign in that direction. But strong possibility large numbers of them disillusioned by his loss and disengage now.
- 17:28:29 [Blog Post] Electoral College: In big move, Trump takes lead in Florida again https://t.co/h3cj5Hn7zz
- 18:57:07 Retweeted @JohnJHarwood 18:35:53 pitch-perfect from President Bush: "too often we judge other groups by their worst examples, but judge ourselves by our best intentions"
- 18:57:15 Retweeted @MattMurph24 18:38:02 Former President Bush is so much better than any current Republican. Drink that in.
- 20:52:26 Retweeted @PeterAlexander 20:48:12 JUST IN: Sources tell @KellyO that @realDonaldTrump will hold a public event this Friday to showcase his VP pick.
- 20:59:35 Retweeted @baseballcrank 20:38:13 Trump may as well pick Newt. Newt's flaws as a national candidate are all things you have to pretend don't exist to vote Trump anyway.
- 21:30:34 Retweeted @lachlan 21:01:42 Trump-Gingrich 2016 https://t.co/RmKCQsDovC
- 21:44:59 Retweeted @stevesilberman 21:31:35 Hilarious. https://t.co/GZjbA38jum
- 22:29:07 Reading – Mike Lee, tea party senator, may help decide Trump’s fate at convention (Jon Ward) https://t.co/v2MyEu84i0
- 23:18:30 Listening to NPR Politics Podcast Dallas
via iCatcher! https://t.co/hvJlhGg1Re
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States updated with new poll data since last update: Nevada, Florida, Kentucky, New Hampshire Just a couple weeks ago we were talking about how Clinton’s lead in Florida had gotten quite large, and it moved out of the possible pickups for Trump. This was on the strength of a number of polls that covered mid-June that were very positive toward Clinton, showing leads as high as 15% in the state. The worst mid-June poll for Clinton still showed her ahead by 6%. Those polls have now rolled off the average, replaced by new polls much more favorable to Trump. With the two new Florida polls added in this update, things move very rapidly in Trump’s direction:
With the two new polls in the mix, the average moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton on June 28th. But things kept getting better for Trump. On July 10th the average moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump.* Trump takes the lead in Florida for the first time since March. At 29 electoral votes Florida makes a huge difference.
You can now see an upward movement on Trump’s best case a couple weeks ago, followed by the bump upward in the expected case more recently. The electoral college view can move very quickly, especially when a big state like Florida swings its weight around. So after a few weeks of bad news for Trump and the trend looking like it was heading relentlessly against him, we now have the chart showing movement back toward Trump. Trump is still behind, but once again he has a “best case” that includes him winning. With Florida not just in play, but actually on his side for the moment, if Trump wins all the states he is ahead in, plus all the states where Clinton leads by less than 5%, he squeaks out a narrow 6 electoral vote win. In the “expected case” were each candidate wins the states they are ahead in, Trump now only loses by 98 electoral votes. This is now better than Romney’s 126 electoral vote loss as well as McCain’s 192 electoral vote loss. So while Trump is still losing, with current polling he is actually improving on the performance of the last two Republican candidates. With Florida moving, the “tipping point” also moves:
Before this update the tipping point was a 5.7% Clinton lead in Florida. Now it is a 4.3% Clinton lead in Ohio. One thing to point out in both of the graphs above is that we see a lot of volatility in the “Trump best case” and “tipping point” lines in the last couple of months. This is the natural result of general election polling ramping up once the nominations were settled. States that are near the tipping point or near category boundaries will “twinkle” as new polls cause the averages to bounce around. This will only increase as we get closer and closer to November. Although I post updates each time states move around in this way, it is important to watch the longer term trends, while remembering that things can sometimes shift quickly. For now though, the current summary looks like this:
It is hard to overstate the importance of Florida here. With Florida out of reach, Trump’s best case was to lose. With Florida on his side, a win is once again in reach, although he still needs to flip every single one of Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, and Ohio to do it. 119.7 days until polls close on election day. Less than 6 days until the gavel drops on the Republican convention. * For those wondering why in this single update we start referencing changes that happened in the average on June 28th and July 10th rather than a change that happens as of this update, this is because the graphs reflect changes due to polls at the mid-dates of the time they were in the field, not at the time the poll is announced, or the time I enter the poll into my data. So today two polls were added, the first covered June 26 to 28 and the second covered July 9 to 10. These became the most recent and 4th most recent polls I know about in Florida, and the line showing the average adjusts to reflect changes at the midpoint of those date ranges. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
Polls added since last update: Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Vermont, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Maine (All), Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah. In addition to a number of actual new polls, I recently got a helpful batch of data from Darryl, another election modeler who posts at horsesass.org. His latest update is here. His analysis uses state polling averages, but then runs a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of possible outcomes and win odds, rather than simply the electoral result range based on the close states going one way or another like I do here. Good stuff, you should check it out. In any case, Darryl sent me a batch of polls he had in his database that I had apparently missed. Most of these were older polls and though they jiggled the lines in the past a bit, did not change the current analysis. Except in one state: Colorado.
Colorado has been very lightly polled given how it is one of the states that has actually gone both ways in the last five elections. The poll Darryl had found which I had missed was a Keating poll back in February, that showed Clinton with a significant lead. With only three Clinton vs Trump polls total so far, and old elections filling out the polling average, that one poll makes a difference. With that poll now in place, the average moves from “Weak Trump” to “Weak Clinton”. In fact, since it was an older poll that was responsible for the change, Colorado has actually been “Weak Clinton” for months now, we just didn’t know it. This change is now reflected in all the graphs.
Everything on the center “expected result” line since late February moves down 18 as Colorado’s 9 electoral votes flip from red to blue. Colorado still looks close though. Clinton’s lead is only 2.9% and the three polls we do have range from Clinton up 10%, to Trump up 11%. We still don’t have a really great picture of Colorado. More polls are needed there. In the mean time, the new national summary looks like this: We still have a picture of Clinton dominating Trump. Even if Trump wins all the close states, he still loses. In the expected case, Trump’s result is still better than McCain but worse than Romney. A loss to be sure, but a loss comparable to the Republican losses in the last two elections, not an unusually bad loss. We are now only a week away from the Republican convention. There is usually a bit of a bounce after a convention (although it usually doesn’t last too long). But this year is unusual. Who knows what we will see. 120.3 days until polls start to close on Election 2016. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar. We are way behind in posting the episodes, but back in May Alex celebrated the 10th subscriber to ALeXMXeLA.com by spending two episodes flying various planes in X-Plane 10. Especially in the last few minutes of the first of these (starting at about the 17 minute mark) you can imagine what horrors you might experience if you were in a 747 piloted by a six year old. In the second episode he gets a bit better, although you probably still wouldn’t want to be on that plane. Anyway, enjoy!
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