Abulsme.com: April 2016

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-25 (UTC)

07:30:53 No changes that triggered a blog post here, but new polls added today for PA/NH/IN. See @ElecCollPolls for details.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-04-25 (UTC)

05:58:45 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Clinton 54% to Trump 39% https://t.co/mdsZUSbdhF
06:02:08 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Clinton 45% to Kasich 48% https://t.co/lddZukxtNe
06:05:31 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Clinton 52% to Cruz 41% https://t.co/QSQAPaup54
06:09:49 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Sanders 57% to Trump 37% https://t.co/RTpGLjchMx
06:09:54 Sanders vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Weak Sanders to Strong Sanders https://t.co/RTpGLjtTb7
06:13:13 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Sanders 50% to Kasich 44% https://t.co/6r5isJD9sj
06:14:13 Sanders vs Trump tipping point change: Sanders by 4.8 in PA -> Sanders by 6 in NC https://t.co/f3fDUyqTdr
06:14:13 Trump best case vs Sanders has changed: Sanders 259 to Trump 279 -> Sanders 279 to Trump 259 https://t.co/f3fDUyqTdr
06:16:35 Poll Added: Marist in PA from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-20 – Sanders 58% to Cruz 36% https://t.co/2ej6aHXIuL
06:16:42 Sanders vs Cruz state category change: PA has moved from Strong Sanders to Solid Sanders https://t.co/2ej6aIfjmj
06:24:55 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Clinton 50% to Trump 31% https://t.co/3PSXiEKyuP
06:27:21 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Clinton 48% to Cruz 34% https://t.co/w9xsKzpQQt
06:31:38 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Clinton 36% to Kasich 50% https://t.co/rtZwnq6Y5o
06:31:43 Clinton vs Kasich state category change: NH has moved from Weak Kasich to Strong Kasich https://t.co/rtZwnqoztY
06:35:27 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Sanders 58% to Trump 31% https://t.co/M7fVjmtD8k
06:35:57 Clinton best case vs Kasich has changed: Clinton 329 to Kasich 209 -> Clinton 325 to Kasich 213 https://t.co/Nr6tnta0FF
06:41:39 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Sanders 61% to Cruz 30% https://t.co/N4CP821QM6
06:45:49 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Sanders 50% to Kasich 44% https://t.co/F8cAhSIBwC
06:45:55 Sanders vs Kasich state category change: NH has moved from Strong Sanders to Solid Sanders https://t.co/F8cAhSIBwC
06:50:17 Poll Added: WMUR in NH from 2016-04-07 to 2016-04-17 – Clinton 44% to Cruz 22% to Trump 19% (Logged but not on site)
07:00:10 Poll Added: Howey in IN from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-21 – Clinton 39% to Trump 47% https://t.co/ZztLhn8cdS
07:03:32 Poll Added: Howey in IN from 2016-04-18 to 2016-04-21 – Clinton 36% to Cruz 53% https://t.co/KiQEMG44gA
07:29:44 That’s it for the new polls for today. We had PA/NH/IN. No status changes that trigger a blog post on @ElectionGraphs this time.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-04-25 (UTC)

01:58:07 Retweeted @kailanikm 01:56:28 Kasich & Cruz camps release concurrent statements agreeing Cruz will focus on Indiana, and Kasich on Oregon and NM – https://t.co/vN5hma3zPC
02:59:22 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 02:58:43 This Kasich/Cruz alliance is unexpected, but let's see if they can play along. Cruz doesn't play well with others, and Kasich is delusional.
07:10:03 Retweeted @PatrickRuffini 2016-04-24 16:40:50 Underplayed story: Cruz success at delegate selection means Trump VP nomination will be contested or subject to Cruz veto in reply to PatrickRuffini
07:21:33 Retweeted @YouGov 2016-04-22 10:31:39 Shakespeare 400 years on: every play ranked by popularity вЂ“ https://t.co/PCmgH9ZF4G https://t.co/OvDOnKysIl
13:06:42 Retweeted @rebeccamhersh 12:44:17 I might as well put the rumors to rest, since I'm getting bombarded with questions from the media: No, I am not Becky with the Good Hair.
13:15:46 Retweeted @owillis 13:11:35 So in about 3-4 months, bored w Clinton likely destroying Trump, MSM will start to say the race is "tightening."
13:31:32 Reading – Bernie Sanders knows he’s going to lose. Here’s how you can tell. (Greg Sargent) https://t.co/mnq3hLhVNw
13:41:19 Reading – Why Elizabeth Warren Would Have More Clout As Hillary Clinton's VP (Ryan Grim) https://t.co/yvQgdVssvJ
14:12:05 Listening to TEDTalks (audio) We can reprogram life. How to do it wisely | Juan Enriquez https://t.co/6vRJbLo2lH
15:05:19 Retweeted @jesseberney 12:10:08 Literally every move Republicans make to stop Trump comes two months too late, minimum.
16:09:51 Retweeted @jodyavirgan 14:14:19 JOINT STATEMENT from @FiveThirtyEight + @nprpolitics pods. We release our listeners to each other. It's the only way to stop @SlateGabfest.
16:30:48 Listening to Talking Machines Remembering David MacKay https://t.co/DJ8pUL8mDA
17:43:12 Retweeted @Taniel 2016-04-23 16:33:19 5 big questions to decide Trump's fate. Does he:
вЂ”win IN?
вЂ”win CA by enough?
вЂ”get 50% in CT?
вЂ”flunk WV's rules?
вЂ”get supporters thru in PA?
19:37:43 Retweeted @PopSci 19:10:06 Watch Daisy Ridley swing a practice lightsaber https://t.co/FI4E0BvTv0 https://t.co/7G8AfZ9v2A

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-24 (UTC)

12:54:36 Democratic superdelegate scan a little earlier. Net change: Clinton +2. https://t.co/VCq2EI1yBH

@abulsme tweets from 2016-04-24 (UTC)

00:51:50 Retweeted @smoothkobra 00:20:45 Math is a Wall Street conspiracy and tool of the 1%, you can't believe math, its a neoliberal establishment shill https://t.co/gvhkOWnV2d
02:49:17 Watching – Bruce Springsteen opens Brooklyn show with Purple Rain (Stan Goldstein) https://t.co/C04pr2ezy9

@abulsme tweets from 2016-04-23 (UTC)

01:49:31 Retweeted @aspillane 00:08:23 MSNBC: Can Hillary Clinton really pick a woman as her VP?
Anita Dunn: There is some precedent for having a running mate of the same gender.
02:11:17 Retweeted @DavMicRot 02:10:01 Trump 75% for GOP nomination. 44% for 1,237 pledged delegates. 67% pledged + unbound delegates = first ballot win. https://t.co/LrSz2fenWM
04:25:36 Reading – GOPers Worry About Bringing Families To Convention After Pro-Trump Threats (Tierney Sneed) https://t.co/l68G93MUPj
04:29:52 Reading – Stonewalled by NSA, Members of Congress Ask Really Basic Question Again (Dan Froomkin) https://t.co/bAM3j5dn0q
04:30:02 Retweeted @Marty2634 04:26:11 @abulsme How are you? in reply to abulsme
04:30:36 .@Marty2634 Sleepy but good. Hope you are good too. :-) in reply to Marty2634
04:35:09 Retweeted @Marty2634 04:31:38 @abulsme I'm doing fine, thanks. I'll let you go if your tired in reply to abulsme
04:37:46 .@Marty2634 Sleppy but my 6 year old son wants to play swords for 15 minutes before bed. :-) Still having fun watching the race for Prez? in reply to Marty2634
08:20:36 Retweeted @Marty2634 04:38:33 @abulsme Of Course I am, Samuel! in reply to abulsme
15:51:18 Reading – Trump’s вЂSystem Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working (Nate Silver) https://t.co/2nkiuyosAY

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-22 (UTC)

16:47:05 Election 2016 talk proper starts 52 minutes in -> [Blog Post] Curmudgeon’s Corner: Favorite 19 https://t.co/nFUvQYP9WM

@abulsme tweets from 2016-04-22 (UTC)

01:03:42 Listening to Primary Concerns New York Votes, Trump Towers https://t.co/S19IvBNKYR
01:36:56 Listening to BhTV: Drezburt (audio) Heather Hurlburt & Daniel Drezner https://t.co/EC3sBpDtpA
02:03:19 Reading – Prince treated for drug overdose days before death (@tmz) https://t.co/TK95xr3IPV
02:15:06 Retweeted @Radimere 02:12:54 Reading: How Kinda Funny Quit Their Jobs – https://t.co/LGnBCrLpVV @abulsme @imbou
02:21:21 .@Radimere @imbou It is on Ivan’s part of our marketing list! I think we need a few more listeners before it makes much sense though. :-) in reply to Radimere
02:38:36 Retweeted @Radimere 02:28:17 Why wait, @abulsme @imbou. U'll psych yourselves out. Just do it and make adjustments as you go. in reply to abulsme
02:40:35 .@Radimere @imbou I have thought about going ahead and doing it even though it is on Ivan’s list since he has done NOTHING on his list. :-) in reply to Radimere
02:45:39 .@Radimere @imbou Honestly though, I have been too busy with @ElectionGraphs stuff to do Patreon for the podcast right now. in reply to abulsme
02:46:09 .@Radimere @imbou Of course, @ElectionGraphs could probably use a Patreon too. It costs me more at the moment, and has a bigger audience. in reply to abulsme
02:56:39 .@Radimere @imbou I also want to separate both from https://t.co/hHWIuUrVSn. Right now blog posts for both are on https://t.co/hHWIuUrVSn. in reply to abulsme
03:00:27 Retweeted @chrisgeidner 02:25:38 19 of the top 20 songs and albums on iTunes tonight: Prince or Prince & The Revolution. https://t.co/YNQVrrpyet
16:23:07 Retweeted @Radimere 11:04:16 @abulsme @imbou isn't easier having to post in one location and having it update either blog? in reply to abulsme
16:24:04 .@Radimere @imbou It doesn’t go two places right now. Just Abulsme. Which means those pages aren’t clearly CC or EG, which is confusing. in reply to Radimere
16:33:03 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 16:32:16 Trump up 6 in Indiana… Would be just deadly for #nevertrump https://t.co/3oA3ObFMJa Still under 40 percent though. 37-31-22. Cruz in 2nd.
16:45:53 [Blog Post] Curmudgeon's Corner: Favorite 19 https://t.co/dFu2EG2rt7
18:05:34 Listening to Vox's The Weeds https://t.co/HNEa3khJN1
20:20:59 Retweeted @gruntdoc 19:29:43 Why you don’t want to ride down in the Humvee on a parachute: https://t.co/FXmqsCzOYm via @instapundit
20:45:30 .@SamWangPhD odds of PLEDGED delegate outright majority for Trump up to 75%! -> https://t.co/TO3bugR5YE
21:04:02 Retweeted @Redistrict 20:22:23 If this holds, the GOP nomination fight is game over. https://t.co/r02TLxZobY
22:48:13 Retweeted @matthewjdowd 22:47:29 So if all the current numbers hold in upcoming GOP primaries, Trump will easily hit 1237. Something has to change for him not to hit target
23:43:18 New polls today in IN and CA really improving Trump’s chances of winning outright. I had said 40%. Upping that to 60%. Tempted to go higher.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Favorite 19

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan are joined by Amy, a first time presidential voter, who talks about her experience in the Washington State Democratic caucus process as a Sanders supporter trying to become a Sanders delegate. In addition, Ivan and Sam cover the usual Election 2016 highlights, and for some reason also discuss two different trips to Toronto.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

Recorded 2016-04-21

Length this week – 1:16:11

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
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Show Details:

(0:00:10-0:17:00) But First
- Agenda
- 1991 Toronto Trip
- 2016 Toronto Trip
- International Roaming
(0:17:39-0:51:33) Caucusing
- Sam’s Weak Clinton Effort
- Amy’s Caucus Stories
- Next Steps
(0:52:43-1:15:51) Election 2016
- Democrats are over. Really.
- Sanders “contesting” the convention
- Republicans as expected too.
- Does Trump get to 1237?
- Craziness no matter what
- Pennsylvania Loophole Primary

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-21 (UTC)

06:52:54 No changes worth of a blog post, but new polls added today in MD/WI/NC. See @ElecCollPolls for details.

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@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-25 (UTC)

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Favorite 19

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-04-21 (UTC)

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