- 01:31:03 Watching – Batman V Superman – Sad Affleck (Sabconth) https://t.co/NQEJ2yIxlW
- 02:31:05 Retweeted @goldengateblond 2016-03-18 19:34:53 Donald Trump should start by building a wall between what he thinks and what he says.
- 02:31:24 Retweeted @ChloeAngyal 2016-03-24 12:28:57 I'm not saying we should *permanently* ban men from running for office, but for a while, you know, until we figure out what's going on. in reply to ChloeAngyal
- 02:57:32 When the new iOS “night shift” feature turns on, a sudden wave of sleepiness hits me. Is that what it is supposed to do?
- 03:19:48 Retweeted @ShaunKing 01:54:44 In case you can't find it, I'm going to pin this #BirdieSanders video on the top of my profile. Just makes me happy!
https://t.co/n6N9sbPD6p - 03:22:55 Retweeted @PeteBlackburn 02:01:23 Chris Christie pouring his bag of M&M’s into a bigger bag of MORE M&M’s is a savage and perplexing move https://t.co/xynYXfswGc
- 03:41:38 Retweeted @ScottNY71 03:40:27 @abulsme Yes. Then I pick up my iPhone 5 that doesn't support it. It's like drinking an entire cup of coffee in the flick of a switch. in reply to abulsme
- 04:10:35 Retweeted @MargaretAtwood 02:21:24 Making the rounds from our USA pals: Who to #Vote for. Oh you kids! https://t.co/P2VqzuWm1D
- 04:11:32 Retweeted @CrazyinRussia 00:32:54 So much going on in this 30 second video. https://t.co/89eVklEW39
- 05:48:48 Reading – Newborn child found in Everett dumpster (KIRO) https://t.co/uaLBUv8qBJ
- 13:32:10 Retweeted @stampylongnose 13:13:00 I just saw that @DiamondMinecart reached 10 million subscribers! Well done mate. Enjoy the diamond play button! :)
- 14:46:34 [Blog Post] Curmudgeon's Corner: Walk 5000 Steps https://t.co/Uux9EYrval
- 14:55:14 Retweeted @suvamara 14:50:01 @joshtpm #BirdLivesMatter activist interrupts Bernie's speech and takes over the podium. And Bernie just lets him. Weak!
- 16:07:32 I was a little surprised by my https://t.co/402tSzNtQr results. I have changed a lot over time. Sanders eh? https://t.co/arzHKjCUWk
- 16:29:38 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 16:16:50 @abulsme there is more difference between Greens and Hillary than between Cruz and Trump. One problem with that kind of site. in reply to abulsme
- 16:30:54 .@DaveMc99TA I generally end up with the Libertarians on these sort of quizzes, but have definitely been moving leftward in recent years. in reply to DaveMc99TA
- 16:38:44 .@DaveMc99TA Think I am caucusing Clinton today tho. Even if on the quiz I agree a bit more with Sanders, don’t actually see Pres Sanders. in reply to abulsme
- 16:39:36 .@DaveMc99TA Thought about waiting for May to do an anti-Trump vote on the R side, but of the five remaining D&R think I like Clinton best. in reply to abulsme
- 16:40:28 .@DaveMc99TA Still reserve the option of Gary Johnson in November though. We shall see. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 16:55:41 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 16:51:43 @abulsme one thing I like about WA is I already know the outcome.. Can vote for Bernie to make a statement and know Ds nominate Hillary. Heh in reply to abulsme
- 16:55:46 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 16:53:35 @abulsme same with Nov.. If Ds (Hillary) needs WA to win then she has already lost. in reply to abulsme
- 16:57:44 .@DaveMc99TA True. One of the reasons I was considering waiting for the R primary in May. Still a chance that might make a difference. in reply to DaveMc99TA
- 17:04:12 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 17:00:17 @abulsme R side is crazy.. Trump could be denied nom on 1 st ballot but then what? Who takes the nom from him? They have months to stop him. in reply to abulsme
- 17:10:22 .@DaveMc99TA I know. The craziness is what makes it interesting. As an election junkie I really want to see a multi-ballot convention! in reply to DaveMc99TA
- 17:18:04 I’m at the WA Dems 44th LD precinct caucus. Ruggs Lake Precinct. They are still doing all the introductory stuff.
- 17:22:48 I think I was just elected chair for my precinct.
- 17:44:19 Ruggs Lake: 25 Sanders, 5 Clinton, 1 Uncommitted
- 17:44:40 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 17:29:26 Hope you figure it out soon ;) RT @abulsme: I think I was just elected chair for my precinct.
- 19:16:53 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 17:32:30 @abulsme @DaveMc99TA hey, happy caucusing guys!
- 19:16:58 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 18:32:47 @DecisionDeskHQ @abulsme Thanks here is a scoop: Bernie has won WA ;) https://t.co/oFubkzEiwL in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:17:03 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 18:44:10 @DaveMc99TA @abulsme BREAKING: OBVIOUS NEWS HAPPENING NOW in reply to DaveMc99TA
- 19:17:09 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 18:44:25 @DaveMc99TA @abulsme how is your precinct caucus going Dave? in reply to DaveMc99TA
- 19:17:12 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 18:54:28 @DecisionDeskHQ @abulsme I actually already voted by mail :) https://t.co/7GhDmnBQMr in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:20:08 WA Dem 44th LD Ruggs Lake Precinct – Votes: Sanders 27, Clinton 5 – Dels to next level: Sanders 4, Clinton 1 Cc @DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA
- 19:21:11 .@DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA And I am the lone Clinton delegate from our Precinct. My daughter @AmyNotAmy is a Sanders alternate. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 19:25:17 .@DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA @AmyNotAmy Sorry 4 no updates during caucus itself. I was chair & had to do stuff, plus spotty cell signal. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 19:31:28 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 19:21:51 @abulsme @DaveMc99TA Snohomish, yes? in reply to abulsme
- 19:31:44 .@DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA Yup. Snohomish. in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:32:21 Retweeted @TwiTati 19:26:44 @DecisionDeskHQ @abulsme @DaveMc99TA when do we start getting official results? in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:32:24 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 19:31:07 Well, yours is the first up on the board. It's something!
Just confirming, Snohomish Co correct? https://t.co/tbwopdWz0R - 19:34:06 .@DecisionDeskHQ Heh. That’s great! Yup, Snohomish. Woo, go Ruggs Lake! :-) https://t.co/AQyxiWNhTa in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:34:09 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 19:32:26 @abulsme @DaveMc99TA were there multiple precincts at your location? in reply to abulsme
- 19:35:38 .@DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA Yes. Many. The location was the whole 44th LD. So few dozen precincts. I wasn’t able to see other results tho. in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:37:35 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 19:34:33 @abulsme @DaveMc99TA how many other precincts were clustered in your caucus site? in reply to abulsme
- 19:38:20 .@DecisionDeskHQ @DaveMc99TA My wife and daughter say probably 50-60 precincts. Mill Creek had 22 precincts alone, then a bunch of others. in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 19:40:36 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 19:39:02 Ya girl's an alternate delegate but let's see if I can convince the delegates to let me go in their place <symbol><symbol><symbol>
- 19:49:00 This 4-1 reported in WA? All my table at my caucus. Woo! :-) https://t.co/mYaQs81SnJ https://t.co/NiCYCrC3RX
- 19:57:38 . @DecisionDeskHQ Sorry I didn’t have it in my head, shoulda tried 2 look over shoulders of the people at the LD tally table for you guys…
- 20:09:16 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 20:02:21 @abulsme GO BACK IN THERE. in reply to abulsme
- 20:12:55 .@DecisionDeskHQ :-) Sorry, too late I think. I’ll try to make a point of it in 2020 maybe. :-) in reply to DecisionDeskHQ
- 20:14:24 Retweeted @ScottNY71 20:13:57 @abulsme I don't trust these. If you really know the candidates and issues, you may answer based on who you like instead of how you feel. in reply to abulsme
- 20:14:58 Starting on getting my own site ready for adding in tonights results now. https://t.co/51XLs2CICt
- 20:28:58 Retweeted @BYUfan 18:45:18 I openly admitted that I am an anarchist, and yet I was elected as a delegate…unanimously. #demcaucus
- 20:30:21 .@BYUfan Were you at Glacier Peak HS? I looked around for you and didn’t see you… Oh well! in reply to BYUfan
- 20:32:38 Retweeted @BYUfan 20:32:28 .@abulsme I was at Lake Stevens hs. Big crowds. I ran the caucus efficiently and got everyone out quick. They were very appreciative. in reply to abulsme
- 20:33:29 .@BYUfan My ground really wanted to talk. I let them for the most part. But we did everything we were supposed to do. Folks seemed happy. in reply to BYUfan
- 20:34:22 .@BYUfan Started out 25 Sanders, 5 Clinton, 2 undecided. The talking convinced both undecideds to go Sanders on the second round. in reply to abulsme
- 20:35:28 Retweeted @BYUfan 20:35:13 .@abulsme my precinct was 13-0 for Sanders. #feelthebern in reply to abulsme
- 20:35:47 .@BYUfan Delegates elected, or people? in reply to BYUfan
- 20:38:01 Retweeted @BYUfan 20:37:48 .@abulsme 13 people. I didn't want to be a delegate, but they twisted my arm. Now I'm a delegate for both parties. #evillaugh in reply to abulsme
- 20:38:29 .@BYUfan Evil evil you. Double Agent! in reply to BYUfan
- 20:39:05 .@BYUfan You should report your precinct’s 13 Sanders 0 Clinton to @DecisionDeskHQ in case they don’t have it yet. in reply to BYUfan
- 20:40:49 Retweeted @BYUfan 20:40:43 .@abulsme looks like you just did
вє in reply to abulsme - 20:41:26 .@BYUfan I don’t know your precinct name or number, which they would need to add you in. in reply to BYUfan
- 20:47:24 Retweeted @BYUfan 20:47:12 .@abulsme ok fine! @DecisionDeskHQ Lake Stevens 6th precinct in Snohomish county Wa. Sanders 13, Clinton 0. 4 county delegates for Sanders. in reply to abulsme
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On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan hit all the things you would expect about Election 2016, the attacks in Brussels and the announcements at the latest Apple event. They also talk a bit about fitness, #ManInTree, Waze, Obama in Cuba and more! Even a bit about events in the Nixon administration! Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Length this week – 1:51:13
Show Details:
New general election polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania since the last update but the one that makes a difference is Pennsylvania:
After a few months in “Weak Clinton” territory, the polling average in Pennsylvania returns to “Strong Clinton” with Clinton now leading Trump by 5.2%. That is just barely out of the “close” category, but you have to draw the line somewhere. For the categorization on ElectionGraphs.com, only states where the margin is under 5% are considered states that could go either way. So, Trump’s “best case” where he wins all the close states gets weaker:
And since Pennsylvania was the tipping point in Clinton vs Trump, the tipping point moves toward Clinton as well:
With this change added, the impression of Trump peaking against Clinton in January and being on a decline ever since is reinforced. With a couple of exceptions, almost every change since then has been in Clinton’s favor. It is almost as if the things that have propelled Trump to the top of the GOP race may simultaneously be turning off general election voters. Go figure. Who would have guessed? The new overall summary of the Clinton vs Trump race is below:
If Trump wins all the close states, he still wins. This is still a race, and Democrats should not get complacent. But things have not been moving in Trump’s direction for the general while he has been fighting for the GOP nomination… which is still by no means locked up. If Trump wants to win in November and not just in July at the Republican convention, at some point he needs to do the pivot to the general election. Right now it looks like the earliest that can really happen is June, and quite possibly not until July… assuming the nomination doesn’t go to someone else at a contested convention. The longer it takes for Trump to get to the point where he can make a big change in direction to try to appeal to general election voters, the weaker he is likely to be in November. 229.3 days until polls start closing on election day. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.
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