- 03:10:10 Retweeted @ObsoleteDogma 02:57:59 It's come to this: Republicans are attacking their last presidential nominee for being against the KKK https://t.co/QP7M0YIBGQ
- 15:07:59 Retweeted @nataliemjb 2016-02-29 17:50:02 So… @realDonaldTrump
is running ahead of where @MittRomney
was this time in 2012. https://t.co/6digehtxLE https://t.co/QNxm6HWpNR - 16:11:41 Retweeted @owenBparsons 15:20:22 @MikeDrucker Entrance polls show major turnout among "time travelers desperate to stop a ruined future" in reply to MikeDrucker
- 17:21:37 Good stuff -> Dear GOP: We Can’t Save You If You Won’t Save Yourself (John Scalzi) https://t.co/0geBFpsinY
- 17:26:56 Reading – Why Can’t the G.O.P. Stop Trump? (Hans Noel) https://t.co/RmEWJdpxJB
- 17:43:32 Retweeted @RandPaul 15:39:53 If they endorse me and declare a Do Over in New Hampshire I will un-suspend <symbol>Happy #SuperTuesday https://t.co/6oaZPIdvWg
- 18:31:24 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Trump tipping point decline, Rubio takes lead in Michigan and nationally https://t.co/OzmtPRrNUu
- 22:26:10 (1/10) – @radimere asked me at lunch for my current odds of President Trump. So I tried to estimate it out.
- 22:26:20 (2/10) – Nomination: 75% Trump wins outright, 20% contested convention, 5% someone else wins outright
- 22:26:25 (3/10) – Contested convention: 75% Trump wins nom anyway, 25% someone else
- 22:26:28 (4/10) – General election in Any Dem vs Trump: 80% Dem, 20% Trump. I think this is roughly true no matter which Dem is the nom.
- 22:26:31 (5/10) – For the record even though it doesn’t matter for this calc – Dem nom: 95% Clinton, 3% Sanders, 2% someone else via crazy stuff.
- 22:26:34 (6/10) If Trump loses nomination, I think it will be too late for him to mount effective 3rd party challenge, so giving 0% odds for that.
- 22:26:37 (7/10) w/Trump nom I give 1/3rd chance a rump Republican party runs someone as a 3rd party. In that case, I think Trump win odds negligible.
- 22:26:39 (8/10) So Trump nom = 75%+20%*75% = 90%. 30% of that Trump loses in 3 way race. So 60% chance of Dem vs Trump.
- 22:26:42 (9/10) 60% chance of Dem vs Trump * 20% chance of Trump winning = 12% chance of President Trump
- 22:26:45 (10/10) So my best odds right now are a 12% chance of President Trump. I kinda wish that number were not as high as it is. Scary.
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