Abulsme.com: Friday, October 30th, 2015

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2015-10-29 (UTC)

04:06:16 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 46% to Bush 43% https://t.co/XK16xBC7um
04:13:13 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Sanders 40% to Bush 46% https://t.co/4ZS64NuIRu
04:18:56 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 43% to Carson 49% https://t.co/WNQCQS0Jed
04:26:49 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Sanders 37% to Carson 48% https://t.co/i9JlLYbWDu
04:32:02 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 45% to Cruz 46% https://t.co/A7F6nkCT8C
04:32:24 Clinton vs Cruz state category change: NC has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Cruz https://t.co/A7F6nkCT8C
04:43:49 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Sanders 41% to Cruz 45% https://t.co/AE5JTUbmlH
04:48:04 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 43% to Fiorina 45% https://t.co/2S0dqZxSmf
04:50:50 Clinton vs Cruz expected case changed: Clinton 347 to Cruz 191 -> Clinton 332 to Cruz 206 https://t.co/i7ssj7lIWA
04:54:55 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 44% to Huckabee 48% https://t.co/GESLaLjmme
04:59:54 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 44% to Kasich 42% https://t.co/k3eJcwywUS
05:04:50 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 42% to Rubio 48% https://t.co/XExjdpJoNH
05:05:09 Clinton vs Rubio state category change: NC has moved from Weak Rubio to Strong Rubio https://t.co/XExjdq0ZFf
05:16:07 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 42% to Trump 48% https://t.co/Yqq9eP4PT2
05:16:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NC has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/Yqq9eP4PT2
05:22:28 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Sanders 41% to Trump 48% https://t.co/a06yPuHB3L
05:22:45 Clinton best case vs Rubio has changed: Clinton 347 to Rubio 191 -> Clinton 332 to Rubio 206 https://t.co/8Xjhd6TEvy
05:27:28 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 303 to Trump 235 -> Clinton 288 to Trump 250 https://t.co/dVzaxrhZ5a
05:29:45 Poll Added: PPP in NC from 2015-10-23 to 2015-10-25 – Clinton 41% to Trump 43% to Webb 8% (Logged but not on site)
05:50:43 That’s it for today’s batch of polls. One change of interest, so there will be a blog post later.
19:06:38 This week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner is out. The second segment is on Election 2016. That part starts ~26 minutes in. https://t.co/rnaSnUkhFm
22:48:06 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Rubio pulls away from Clinton in North Carolina https://t.co/wbpCn3IdJq

@abulsme tweets from 2015-10-29 (UTC)

00:01:38 Not recording commentary with @imbou this time, but I do have the debate on… wonder if we'll get anything fun this time. :-)
00:33:47 Trump really knows how to go for the jugular. He just destroyed Kasich.
00:40:07 Jeb-Rubio fight! Lets see them knock each other out, Trump and Carson win! (So far though, Rubio winning the exchange.)
00:46:30 Cruz attack on the questions really hit home nicely.
00:47:34 Nice Cruz-Moderator fight.
00:51:07 I am watching live, but with a lot of distractions, so missing bunches. Fun debate so far though.
00:53:55 Cruz just said he would buy the moderator pot brownies. HmmmвЂ¦
00:54:11 Retweeted @julia_azari 00:54:00 I will pay good $ to see Ted Cruz in a debate on CO brownies and tequila. I bet a lot of people would. Social security=solved. #GOPDebate
00:56:02 Retweeted @joshgreenman 00:55:43 The story of the debate so far: Jeb Bush flat on his back.
00:57:54 Retweeted @jeffzeleny 00:55:16 The last 20 minutes is what the GOP race would look like if @realDonaldTrump and @RealBenCarson weren't in the race.
01:00:04 Retweeted @nataliewsj 00:59:26 The two candidates spiking on Google are Cruz and Rubio. In past debates, it's been Trump. https://t.co/viHhbMc96h https://t.co/8x0yuxL3Rg
01:00:41 Hasn’t Trump been asked this bankruptcy question at every single debate?
01:01:46 Cramer gets to ask a question? Really?
01:05:19 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom 01:05:09 Becky: Mr. Trump, you had a lot of bankruptcies.
Trump: That's how we big leaguers do it. I'll do the same thing for America
#CNBCGOPDebate
01:06:54 Jeb looks completely fed up. To paraphrase the SNL Dukakis вЂњI can’t believe I’m losing to these guys!вЂќ
01:11:51 Seeming so far like Rubio and Cruz may rise to be closer to Trump/Carson. Bush fades further. Everybody else, whatever.
01:13:46 I gather that the embargo on AppleTV reviews dropped 13 minutes ago too based on how many of them I see in my feed.
01:16:23 Surprising lack of focus on Trump/Carson this time. Gives the others a fighting chance for once.
01:19:16 Was thinking of entering some poll results during debate, but hard to split focus.
01:22:05 .@imbou & I recorded Curmudgeon’s Corner yest, so it doesn’t include anything about tonight’s debate. I’ll probably have it out tomorrow.
01:24:19 The next monthly debate should have a 5% polling cut off instead of 1%.
01:26:19 Retweeted @crushingbort 01:09:14 people let Ben Carson dig around in their fucking brain
01:26:59 Trump challenging moderator. A theme tonight for several candidates. Generally a crowd pleaser.
01:27:32 And media attacks more generally, as per Rubio just nowвЂ¦ always a way to get a cheap winning line.
01:28:45 Retweeted @nprpolitics 01:25:47 After break 2:
Fiorina: 7:09
Rubio: 5:11
Cruz: 5:10
Kasich: 5:00
Carson: 4:21
Trump: 4:05
Christie: 3:37
Huck: 2:50
Bush: 2:46
Paul: 2:03
01:30:24 Retweeted @nandorvila 01:29:41 Rick Santelli!!! Dude started the Tea Party
01:31:17 Retweeted @natsecHeather 01:31:07 Cruz follows up on Bolsheviks and Mensheviks with Star Chamber reference. I'm hoping for Council of Nicaea next.
01:32:15 The Maryland Blimp!
01:34:25 Bush gets to talk again. I forgot he was here!
01:35:32 Retweeted @igorbobic 01:34:56 Jeb is a bit deflatedвЂ¦like the blimp
01:36:27 I was told there wouldn’t be math.
01:37:45 Oh Rand, Rand, RandвЂ¦ once you complain about time or the rules, you have completely lost. Bub bye.
01:39:03 Retweeted @LizMair 01:38:50 "Governor Kasich, let's talk about marijuana. How much of it do you think people want to smoke 1.5 hours into this debate?" #gopdebate
01:44:32 My guess: After this debate gets factored in only R’s over 5% in national poll average will be Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz.
01:45:10 She goes back to the Zuckerberg question after getting shut down by Trump last timeвЂ¦
01:45:31 (Of course she was right on the quote, but doesn’t matterвЂ¦)
01:47:25 Rubio & Cruz will start closing gap with Trump and Carson too I think. Trump not at his best here. Losing his mojo. :-) CarsonвЂ¦ who knows.
01:56:53 Christie gets a good line in about fantasy football. Won’t help him.
01:57:27 Retweeted @RichLowry 01:56:45 Christie gives answer on fantasy football that Bush should have
02:00:54 Retweeted @emptywheel 02:00:35 CNBC telling us, 2 hours in, this is the REPUBLICAN debate, in case the bid to shut down all government weren't a bit tipoff.
02:06:30 Retweeted @nprpolitics 02:04:37 Debate clock:
Rubio: 8:44
Fiorina: 8:37
Kasich: 8:06
Trump: 7:44
Cruz: 6:52
Christie: 6:30
Huckabee: 5:47
Carson: 5:28
Paul: 5:03
Bush: 4:56
02:10:56 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 02:10:35 PredictIt odds for GOP nomination https://t.co/rwNqufNIsS
02:12:25 Retweeted @davidfrum 02:11:57 Me in June. We’ve now arrived at phase 5. https://t.co/tmtgTVUlbz
02:14:06 Retweeted @TheFix 02:13:56 Jeb campaign may be trying to make this about CNBC. But the real story is he totally choked in a moment he needed to shine.
02:20:53 Post debate national poll avg predictions in next 2 wks -> Up: Rubio/Cruz, Flat: Trump/Carson/Fiorina, Down: Bush. Nobody else matters.
02:22:58 My over 5% group now Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, Fiorina. Fiorina did well enough to not drop under 5%. Christie did well, but not enough.
02:24:00 Bush just continued his implosion though. He looked defeated and done. He still has $ to stick around and hope other people fall flat, butвЂ¦
02:24:50 In order to come back, Bush needs a complete reversal, and he really needed it tonight (or before). Gets harder and harder as time passes.
02:26:47 If Trump and Carson really do flare out, probably comes down to Rubio vs Cruz? Fiorina for VP?
02:28:06 ButвЂ¦ as tempting as it is, don’t count Trump out yetвЂ¦ he’s got some sort of magic. :-) Carson??? I just don’t know. Don’t get him at all.
02:29:01 Retweeted @nprpolitics 02:28:54 Final:
Fiorina: 10:32
Rubio: 10:10
Kasich: 9:42
Trump: 9:26
Christie: 8:31
Huckabee: 7:39
Cruz: 7:34
Carson: 7:02
Bush: 6:39
Paul: 6:15
02:30:17 Retweeted @kasie 02:24:35 Republican National Committee is very angry with CNBC over how debate went, sources say
02:30:56 Retweeted @tressiemcphd 02:18:58 Jeb talking about the "D.C. politicians making things worse". Dude. EVERYBODY AT YOUR THANKSGIVING WILL BE A POTUS
02:42:33 Retweeted @ComfortablySmug 02:41:04 CNN is now live covering CNBC's debate.
Smart move dumping your audience, CNBC. A+ work over there.
02:47:11 OK, debate long over, time to get back to putting podcast together, and maybe entering some poll data. Oh, and dinner?
02:51:30 Retweeted @BenjySarlin 02:50:51 Asked Bush campaign manager Danny Diaz about Jeb's mood after debate. "He appreciated the opportunity."
02:55:17 Retweeted @DavMicRot 02:50:47 Markets have Rubio up to 37%, Trump steady at 19%, Bush down to 14%, Carson steady at 11%, Cruz steady at 7% … https://t.co/Td7I0dWUDj
03:43:44 Retweeted @NoahCRothman 03:02:36 This is the moment that won Rubio the debate: It neutralized the missing votes issue and it neutralized Bush. https://t.co/kr8tNkVrzN
05:40:38 Retweeted @ppppolls 2015-10-27 15:54:02 Jim Webb gets 8% as an independent in NC, less than the 9% Deez Nuts got as one when we polled in August
05:53:14 New @ppppolls results in NC added. Details at https://t.co/51XLs2CICt and @ElecCollPolls. One change of note, so blog post later.
06:16:38 Retweeted @bill_nottingham 05:21:45 Well, that's one way for network television to pass the Bechdel test. (H/T @hypatiadotca ). https://t.co/pikwssn66B
13:08:30 Retweeted @pastfrontrunner 13:00:31 At this point in —
2004: Dean +1
2008 (D): H. Clinton +26.4
(R): Giuliani +11.2
2012: Cain +0.7
https://t.co/8pTnsrwBv0
16:51:22 Reading – The agony of Jeb Bush (@thefix) https://t.co/f88DyQuRk8
18:45:03 Retweeted @MaxCRoser 17:46:09 In 1800 there was no country with a life expectancy over 40.
https://t.co/TKLjt8Hy2H https://t.co/3CvcCroMkU
18:52:50 [Abulpost] Curmudgeon's Corner: My Wonderful Foot https://t.co/GV7pAOEvMd
21:38:38 Retweeted @Snowden 14:16:28 Hearing reports EU just voted 285-281, overcoming huge pressure, to cancel all charges against me and prevent extradition. Game-changer.
21:45:43 Retweeted @mkraju 21:41:50 For those keeping score at home, Rand Paul's talking filibuster against the budget deal lasted 18 minutes this afternoon
21:47:28 Retweeted @RosieGray 21:43:39 .@davidfrum shows how Jeb could have avoided disaster if only he had improvised https://t.co/ANS0QJmJ98 https://t.co/V0P4h4GFkd
22:19:34 Retweeted @nycjim 22:19:18 Pluto. Simply amazing photo released today by @Nasa. https://t.co/qgRYNUTMOS https://t.co/KBM6ddyA8q
22:47:30 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Rubio pulls away from Clinton in North Carolina https://t.co/uN0hVKOgh0
22:50:34 Retweeted @IJ_Politics 22:49:21 GOP Voters Name the 3 Candidates They Most Want to Drop Out of the Race
https://t.co/2bP2i49Otm https://t.co/O9L7WUii2V