Abulsme.com: Friday, October 9th, 2015

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2015-10-08 (UTC)

03:17:12 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 43% to Bush 44% http://t.co/QkP8rj76Ct
03:20:41 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 41% to Bush 43% http://t.co/v1K2LbmqC3
03:30:42 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 40% to Bush 46% http://t.co/9gw2egMW5L
03:30:56 Clinton vs Bush state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton http://t.co/9gw2eh4wXj
03:36:18 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 45% to Carson 43% http://t.co/pOm7GuXl3m
03:39:08 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 40% to Carson 49% http://t.co/5W74JmEEaR
03:39:25 Clinton vs Carson state category change: OH has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Carson http://t.co/5W74JmEEaR
03:43:48 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 40% to Carson 49% http://t.co/58VH4mbfvh
03:47:11 Bush best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 237 to Bush 301 -> Clinton 217 to Bush 321 http://t.co/mo1MkxHXDI
03:48:33 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 44% to Fiorina 42% http://t.co/SImolkZLdi
03:52:08 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 41% to Fiorina 43% http://t.co/3CfxBxtyVX
03:52:45 Clinton vs Fiorina state category change: OH has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Fiorina http://t.co/3CfxBxtyVX
03:52:57 Clinton vs Carson tipping point change: Clinton by 0.6 in OH -> Carson by 0.2 in IA http://t.co/enLSjyGf6u
03:53:13 Clinton vs Carson expected case changed: Clinton 275 to Carson 263 -> Clinton 257 to Carson 281 http://t.co/enLSjyGf6u
03:58:04 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 41% to Fiorina 45% http://t.co/V4zpv7RNwm
03:58:35 Clinton vs Fiorina state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton http://t.co/V4zpv7RNwm
04:01:40 Clinton vs Fiorina tipping point change: Clinton by 1.7 in OH -> Clinton by 0.2 in VA http://t.co/UoWFNEDQ96
04:01:42 Clinton vs Fiorina expected case changed: Clinton 288 to Fiorina 250 -> Clinton 270 to Fiorina 268 http://t.co/UoWFNEDQ96
04:01:44 Fiorina best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 247 to Fiorina 291 -> Clinton 227 to Fiorina 311 http://t.co/UoWFNEDQ96
05:35:54 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 44% to Rubio 45% http://t.co/PERa00YLbt
05:36:05 Clinton vs Rubio state category change: FL has moved from Strong Rubio to Weak Rubio http://t.co/PERa01gmA3
05:39:20 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 41% to Rubio 45% http://t.co/AN2OPHtkyv
05:42:26 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 42% to Rubio 45% http://t.co/8VyM881rbZ
05:42:49 Clinton vs Rubio state category change: PA has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Rubio http://t.co/8VyM881rbZ
05:48:56 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% http://t.co/k8hElKNOXj
05:52:14 Clinton vs Rubio tipping point change: Clinton by 2.4 in PA -> Clinton by 1.2 in NH http://t.co/36xxQEy7vm
05:52:17 Clinton best case vs Rubio has changed: Clinton 318 to Rubio 220 -> Clinton 347 to Rubio 191 http://t.co/36xxQEy7vm
05:53:47 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 43% to Trump 42% http://t.co/fAAiCGgRWV
05:57:13 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% http://t.co/tZKqiWxJBC
06:01:58 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 46% to Bush 42% http://t.co/kyCD5bTYRv
06:02:19 Biden vs Bush state category change: FL has moved from Strong Bush to Weak Bush http://t.co/kyCD5cbAg5
06:04:03 Clinton vs Rubio tipping point change: Clinton by 1.2 in NH -> Rubio by 0.1 in CO http://t.co/yHlYR9Xcz5
06:04:11 Clinton vs Rubio expected case changed: Clinton 288 to Rubio 250 -> Clinton 268 to Rubio 270 http://t.co/yHlYR9Xcz5
06:06:32 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 46% to Bush 37% http://t.co/FlNp2o0Jgo
06:10:11 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 45% to Bush 42% http://t.co/Ma8snlW8GH
06:11:24 Biden vs Bush tipping point change: Biden by 1 in OH -> Biden by 2.8 in NV http://t.co/sYh1upI0Ax
06:11:26 Biden best case vs Bush has changed: Biden 328 to Bush 210 -> Biden 357 to Bush 181 http://t.co/sYh1upI0Ax
06:14:58 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 45% to Carson 42% http://t.co/IpQSUy3Pq8
06:18:00 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 42% to Carson 46% http://t.co/GuzYYDFRS4
06:18:26 Biden vs Carson state category change: OH has moved from Weak Biden to Weak Carson http://t.co/GuzYYDFRS4
06:21:40 Biden vs Carson tipping point change: Biden by 1.7 in OH -> Biden by 0.3 in FL http://t.co/2Ss40w6rh6
06:21:43 Biden vs Carson expected case changed: Biden 310 to Carson 228 -> Biden 292 to Carson 246 http://t.co/2Ss40w6rh6
06:22:30 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 42% to Carson 47% http://t.co/ZF7FcQN4ED
06:23:19 Biden vs Carson state category change: PA has moved from Strong Biden to Weak Biden http://t.co/ZF7FcQvtg3
06:26:46 Carson best case vs Biden has changed: Biden 251 to Carson 287 -> Biden 231 to Carson 307 http://t.co/iCoTqMi5Cv
06:28:12 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 49% to Fiorina 38% http://t.co/lFTuDOmHyr
06:31:14 Biden vs Fiorina tipping point change: Biden by 1.7 in OH -> Biden by 1.9 in FL http://t.co/WVkjV6YBRc
06:32:39 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 44% to Fiorina 42% http://t.co/emJg0qapfv
06:36:56 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 44% to Fiorina 43% http://t.co/obSazEwZnO
06:37:11 Biden vs Fiorina state category change: PA has moved from Strong Biden to Weak Biden http://t.co/obSazEwZnO
06:40:53 Fiorina best case vs Biden has changed: Biden 257 to Fiorina 281 -> Biden 237 to Fiorina 301 http://t.co/o4Lrwgg2D1
06:43:23 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 46% to Rubio 43% http://t.co/8K5U7GNgnA
06:47:18 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 46% to Rubio 41% http://t.co/XzL9HYxL6t
06:50:56 Biden vs Rubio tipping point change: Biden by 0.6 in OH -> Biden by 2.3 in OH http://t.co/QTjuhcvm6F
06:51:34 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 45% to Rubio 43% http://t.co/K4CqG8PpVU
06:55:48 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 52% to Trump 38% http://t.co/DjhYOegkNf
06:56:21 Biden vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Biden http://t.co/DjhYOexVEN
07:01:04 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 49% to Trump 38% http://t.co/1yaXuiW8mO
07:01:49 Biden vs Trump state category change: OH has moved from Weak Biden to Strong Biden http://t.co/1yaXuiExvg
07:02:14 Biden vs Trump tipping point change: Biden by 2.4 in OH -> Biden by 3.3 in FL http://t.co/jS64Hyc3pO
07:02:17 Biden vs Trump expected case changed: Biden 281 to Trump 257 -> Biden 310 to Trump 228 http://t.co/jS64Hyc3pO
07:05:54 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Biden 50% to Trump 40% http://t.co/3LRnMfbaNC
07:11:48 Biden vs Trump tipping point change: Biden by 3.3 in FL -> Biden by 4.1 in IA http://t.co/8xCeCWrXon
07:11:49 Trump best case vs Biden has changed: Biden 251 to Trump 287 -> Biden 269 to Trump 269 http://t.co/8xCeCWrXon
07:17:49 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 41% to Bush 45% http://t.co/W0WcEz7U59
07:24:55 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 40% to Bush 42% http://t.co/6HDb5Qm0qE
07:26:53 Sanders vs Bush tipping point change: Bush by 0.8 in OH -> Bush by 0.5 in OH http://t.co/xoNtQHfYcO
07:28:34 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 42% to Bush 44% http://t.co/zXj7Pj3RgF
07:33:32 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 40% to Carson 46% http://t.co/gT4182W4xs
07:36:38 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 36% to Carson 48% http://t.co/1alN6OMiHR
07:36:52 Sanders vs Carson state category change: OH has moved from Weak Sanders to Weak Carson http://t.co/1alN6OMiHR
07:41:13 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 37% to Carson 47% http://t.co/N4ISdjQO1U
07:41:32 Sanders vs Carson state category change: PA has moved from Strong Sanders to Weak Sanders http://t.co/N4ISdjQO1U
07:42:02 Sanders vs Carson tipping point change: Sanders by 1.7 in OH -> Carson by 0 in CO http://t.co/b22MCTehYF
07:42:05 Sanders vs Carson expected case changed: Sanders 281 to Carson 257 -> Sanders 263 to Carson 275 http://t.co/b22MCTehYF
07:46:55 Carson best case vs Sanders has changed: Sanders 251 to Carson 287 -> Sanders 231 to Carson 307 http://t.co/GU6hhpJNz6
07:48:17 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 41% to Fiorina 42% http://t.co/xyTCkXQxdD
07:51:00 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 39% to Fiorina 43% http://t.co/WKLfReVeVg
07:51:13 Sanders vs Fiorina state category change: OH has moved from Weak Sanders to Weak Fiorina http://t.co/WKLfReVeVg
07:55:01 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 40% to Fiorina 44% http://t.co/ZEwgWo9Bwu
07:55:32 Sanders vs Fiorina state category change: PA has moved from Strong Sanders to Weak Sanders http://t.co/ZEwgWnS0EW
07:57:10 Sanders vs Fiorina tipping point change: Sanders by 1.7 in OH -> Fiorina by 0 in CO http://t.co/6AUi3sXScj
07:57:13 Sanders vs Fiorina expected case changed: Sanders 281 to Fiorina 257 -> Sanders 263 to Fiorina 275 http://t.co/6AUi3sXScj
07:57:16 Fiorina best case vs Sanders has changed: Sanders 247 to Fiorina 291 -> Sanders 227 to Fiorina 311 http://t.co/6AUi3sXScj
08:01:00 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 41% to Rubio 46% http://t.co/NePMpnGoSM
08:04:10 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 40% to Rubio 43% http://t.co/dJQGCjwrNa
08:06:13 Sanders vs Rubio tipping point change: Rubio by 1.2 in OH -> Rubio by 1.1 in OH http://t.co/YuOWshHTD8
08:09:04 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 39% to Rubio 45% http://t.co/IrOnE1wtu0
08:14:21 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in FL from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 46% to Trump 41% http://t.co/HlX9oi9K1d
08:17:31 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in OH from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 44% to Trump 41% http://t.co/lNmOlLOffD
08:21:23 Poll Added: Quinnipiac in PA from 2015-09-25 to 2015-10-05 – Sanders 46% to Trump 41% http://t.co/VxsR7ApShc
08:21:49 Sanders vs Trump tipping point change: Sanders by 0.8 in OH -> Sanders by 2.1 in OH http://t.co/JzwjnsiwZS
08:58:00 That’s it for today’s polls. With PA flipping R, Rubio now leads Clinton by 2 electoral votes, so of course there will be a blog post later.
22:23:31 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Pennsylvania flips, Rubio now ahead of Clinton!! http://t.co/zPycb3lxaH
22:23:40 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 14:12:18 @ConArtCritic Clinton v Rubio http://t.co/ngIZOvJOnF http://t.co/rQowfBksRy
22:23:52 Retweeted @ConArtCritic 14:20:13 @DaveMc99TA @ElecCollPolls http://t.co/FrBf9CtysT in reply to DaveMc99TA
22:23:59 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 14:21:56 @ConArtCritic @ElecCollPolls that it happened so soon and before Ohio is wow heh in reply to ConArtCritic
22:24:03 Retweeted @ConArtCritic 14:25:31 @DaveMc99TA @ElecCollPolls I think it'll move back with PPP but who knows. Certainly surprised me that it happened so early. in reply to DaveMc99TA
22:33:50 .@ConArtCritic @DaveMc99TA Looking at math of avg, Clinton has to lead PA by over 10% in next poll to retake lead in avg. Would be surprise. in reply to ConArtCritic

@abulsme tweets from 2015-10-08 (UTC)

08:59:44 New @QuinnipiacPoll #s in FL/OH/PA added. Details @ http://t.co/EZdmGlTAg8 and @ElecCollPolls. Rubio now leads Clinton, so blog post later!
17:02:12 Retweeted @ConArtCritic 14:21:10 So PA finally tipped over, eh @abulsme ? I have a feeling it will bounce back and forth quite a bit this cycle.
17:04:31 .@ConArtCritic Yup. Hope to do blog post over lunch. & @ppppolls is doing PA this weekend, so it will have a chance to bounce very soon. :-) in reply to ConArtCritic
17:07:22 I do a couple work conference calls this morning and when I get back McCarthy has withdrawn from speaker race and House GOP in chaos. Fun!
17:10:24 Radical proposal: UK Parliament style non-partisan impartial Speaker. Doesn’t need to be a house member. If such a person even exists. :-)
17:16:10 Alternately, a mod R saying they are OK working with D’s that could be elected by coalition of вЂњget things doneвЂќ folks from both parties.
17:17:06 Both of course would be radical realignments that would change dynamics of the house overnight. So almost certainly won’t happen. :-)
17:29:01 Retweeted @ConArtCritic 17:28:31 @abulsme @ppppolls and if it doesn't…. in reply to abulsme
17:31:14 .@ConArtCritic @ppppolls Then things just look worse & worse for ClintonвЂ¦ A long way to go of course. I expect lots of movement in 397 days. in reply to ConArtCritic
17:40:32 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 17:39:41 @abulsme @ConArtCritic Hillary's favs and h2hs are worse with P polls than almost any other pollster http://t.co/CnpAbw9Hge in reply to abulsme
17:42:28 .@DaveMc99TA @ConArtCritic Yeah. If I had to guess, she isn’t done sinking yet. She can’t be too far from a bottom, but not there yet. in reply to DaveMc99TA
17:52:58 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 17:52:23 @abulsme @ConArtCritic think 40 is close to her floor in primary and general.. Question is can any D or R rise above 45% to challenge her. in reply to abulsme
17:55:32 .@DaveMc99TA @ConArtCritic Sounds about rightвЂ¦ Absent new negative news. Looks like some R’s competitive. D’sвЂ¦ Ask again after debate. :-) in reply to DaveMc99TA
19:02:12 Retweeted @ByronTau 18:33:55 Things politics nerds drool over:
1) Convention floor fight
2) 3rd party president
3) Bipartisan speaker election
4) Invocation of 25 Amdnt
22:22:39 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Pennsylvania flips, Rubio now ahead of Clinton!! http://t.co/Fg7gWNRVfd