Another day, another state moving away from Clinton. This time it is Florida moving toward Bush:

In a pattern remarkably similar to Rubio’s, Bush has consistently been improving against Clinton in Florida for over a year. After a bit of a pause for a few months, that trend has now accelerated. As of the last poll the average goes to Bush +5.8%. This takes Florida out of the “close” category and out of what I consider to be Clinton’s “best case”.

Florida slipping out of Clinton’s reach is that notch in the bottom right of the “bubble” above. Clinton’s best case is now worse for her than her WORST case was back in June 2014. Although I predicted back in November that Clinton was probably at her high water mark and would fall from there, the degree of the fall has been dramatic. The open question is of course, “When does the bleeding stop?”. Right now Clinton is still ahead, although it is much closer than it once looked. But she is only a state or two away from actually being behind. (At least against Bush and Rubio.)

403.4 days until polls start to close on Election 2016.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.