This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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@abulsme tweets from 2015-06-18 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-06-17 (UTC)

Cars don’t eat balls

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Alex likes to play with this exercise ball in the driveway.

I saw it behind my car.

I kicked it out of the way.

I got in my car. The ball rolled back. I did not see this.

I backed up. Squashing noise.

I rolled forward. Crunching noise.

The car had tried to eat the ball.

The car failed.

I pulled the ball out. It will be fine. Barely a scratch.

My car on the other hand is not happy.

Sigh!

Diary of Hiram Harvey Hurlburt Jr: Chapter 14

The winter I was 17 years old I went to school most two miles from where I lived to Arnon A. Atwood. At that time it was called the “Hollow”. There was the post office, layer, town clerks office, gristmill and tannery. There was but few scholars. This school was kept in part of the tannery, and the scholars were the most queer set I ever remember of. Some young girls that were about my age, appearing very lady like, they put on no airs, seemed natural, and the studies, algebra, philosophy, chemistry and geology were attended to. There was Sorelle Smith, Amelia Cook, Eliza Sanford, of boys of any size I can remember but one, B. Henry Bacon, somewhat more than a year my senior. I did not make his acquaintance very quickly it seemed to be several weeks before we saw fit to make approaches in that light. But we finally come to acquaintance that lasted without break for ten years.

Henry really was the only boy or young man strictly acquaintance I ever had, after some months we became confidential all but in regard to the one girl I had placed my best thoughts on, the loveliest most bewitching creature, worshiped at a distance, and continued in that manner, as by something then carelessly said one day, I was sure that this young lady was his intended. At what stage of courtship I could not know. He was a near neighbor, and perhaps more advanced than myself in art at appearing at easy in company of a young lady. So I smothered all hopes, and kept my mind on my studies.

This young lady Miss Sorelle Smith was the only child of Landlord Smith of the hotel. So this young lady had the opportunity of meeting tourists who traveled and stopped off at this tavern already a summer resort. She had been sent to the Middleburg Seminary several terms, and was especially attractive young lady at balls, dances and parties; had made acquaintance at Middleburg with the “Jeweler” John Dyer only child “Hattie” also with Mary May of a fine family. Miss Dyer afterwards married Sattler Phelps, son of John Phelps quite noted in Vermont.

Now really, as I had set my choicest thoughts on Miss Smith, I kept it all to myself, I seemed to have perception enough for that. The winter passed away and my acquaintance at school did not become any closer, though I was in studies, being somewhat advanced beyond all the rest either older or younger and the teacher “Atwood” who was an uncle of Miss Smith seemed to acknowledge he carried me through our studies as far as he knew.

I went after school was out, back to the saw-mill and kept studying ever while running the mill. Especially music, so I became familiar with many songs in use at that time. As I had but one object of adoration, I was living to improve all my abilities to become advanced to be qual to the class of people I imagined Miss Smith belonged to. I attended the Congregational Church, was urged into the choir. I was then singing under a leader, name Norman Lewis, one of the deacons. But Lewis had a difference with Rev. Asa Hemenway, one of the finest gentlemen ever permitted to stay on this earth awhile.

Deacon Lewis undertook to drive the minister away, left the choir, so as to obstruct the service. But one member of the church with Mr. Hemenway came to see me, and to my great astonishment, wished me to take the leadership of the choir. It seemed to me I was not advanced enough, and I hesitated, but the two cleared all obstacles, I finally consented, And when the Rev gentlemen clasped with me at parting at fathers saw mill, the tears were coursing down his cheeks.

I never knew just what the trouble was, but always concluded Dea. Lewis had been exasperating in his conduct, that Mr Hemenway could not bear any more. Mr. Hemenway’s last words at that time were “I shall always remember this of you.”

Mr. Hemenway came to Ripton to take charge of the church there from the City of Bankok, Siam. Besides his labors there as a missionary he taught the English language to the prince of Siam, and they were in correspondence at this time. I think that prince is now the present Emperor.

Note: This is an excerpt from the memoirs of Hiram Harvey Hurlburt Jr (1827-1910). He was my mother’s mother’s father’s father. The full diary is available here, with chapters transcribed from the scanned PDF of the manuscript into more easily read text as I have time.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-06-16 (UTC)

Diary of Hiram Harvey Hurlburt Jr: Chapter 13

The spring I was fifteen years old my father moved to Ripton, on the Green Mountains. He built a sawmill, it was thirty by forty feet. He finished off the part intended for a shingle mill and lived in it. The damn was built in range with the upper end of the mill; so the pond of water was near a slide or rather an inclined plane was from the floor of the mill into the water, and the logs were drawn from the water as wen by the mill power of a sash sawmill. The lumber from the saw, made from the logs that came out of the water were excessively heavy. I remember to carry them away took my whole strength. When winter came the logs were brought to the mill in front on the logway.

As I attended to the mill a good deal, I kept a level (Handspike) made from a small spruce tree about two and a half inches think, neatly shaved and convenient to handle the logs. A neighbor by the name of Martin Powers took this lever and used it in place of a skid to pile logs up on the pile front of the mill, and when he had used it I would find it broken. I made another and told Powers I did not wish him to use it for a skid. But Powers was a wrestler and won at times at elections and raising of buildings. He was a married man, probably twenty three years old. The next day he came with a load of logs, came in the mill and grasped my lever. I took it away from him, father being present cautioned Powers to let me alone, for one of us would get hurt. But Powers clinching me side hold and I flung him to the floor as quick as thought! He was badly hurt. Anyway he kept running down. He sent for me one day and told the wrestling would end his life, and he told me I was not to blame, that he had wrestled with many and never one so quick as I was. I was a good deal affected to think he was going to die, and I went to father with the fact. Father said, “I was not to blame. Powers begun by clinching first.” But there was always a feeling, like, I wish it had not happened. I noticed father and mother made a quite a number of donations to the widow after his death.

The next winter I went to school to a lady teacher “Ann Maria Leavette.” My senior by one year, she was an excellent teacher, and I went on in my studies of grammar and arithmetic to the end of the text books. The evening spelling schools were of great importance to us, there would be a houseful coming from other districts.

In my seat at school a young man two years older than myself sat with me. He became desperately in love with the teacher, and he studied the dictionary to find words he considered appropriate to compose a note to the teacher for her company to her boarding house. His name was Reuben A. Damon. He finally with much effort made the following: “To Miss Leavette. May I have the superiority of going home with you from spelling school?” Signed, “Reuben A. Damon.” This he showed me, and I supposed it was all proper. Reuben studied on it quite a while when he exerted himself again to improve it. This was the result. “Miss A. M. Leavette may I have the exquisite felicity of going home with you from spelling school” signed ‘R. A. Damon.” I was completely astonished at this; for I was very bashful; still I just worshiped the beautiful Miss Leavette well knowing she was unreachable but very careful not to let it be known. So Reuben had the whole field. Sometime in the calm of the recess at spelling school Miss Leavette came to me and whispered “If I would kindly walk with her to Mr. Cook’s where she boarded after spelling school.” But how I must have looked? How my ears did burn for I was in a surprised state of earthly bliss! But I was punctual to be on hand at the moment wanted.

I never knew whether Miss Leavette was given the note, but I noticed that Reuben changed his love in a few weeks, as he came to me for advice. “He wished to know and tell him which I thought would be the best girl for him of three?” naming Miss Joan Fletcher, Miss Jane Downer or Miss Sorelle Smith?

In my youthful wisdom I surmised that Miss Fletcher being the first name would be the one, I named her, Damon visited her a number of times, wioth no result as known, perhaps he called on the others, but was never known to me. Damon several years after married Eunice Lovett, she died in a few years, when he married her sister Dolly Lovett, that account ends the history of R. A. Ramon in this narration.

Note: This is an excerpt from the memoirs of Hiram Harvey Hurlburt Jr (1827-1910). He was my mother’s mother’s father’s father. The full diary is available here, with chapters transcribed from the scanned PDF of the manuscript into more easily read text as I have time.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-06-15 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2015-06-14 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-06-14 (UTC)

Electoral College: Clinton weakens in Ohio

This last week brought a new set of Ohio results from PPP. With this poll Clinton lost significant ground against basically all opponents in the averages. Concentrating as we usually do on the five best polled candidate combinations, this is what we see:

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All five of these candidates improved against Clinton based on this latest poll. Looking back a little and comparing now with three months ago, we see that Paul, Bush and Christie have improved their positions, while Rubio and Huckabee have fallen further behind. Of these, Paul has moved the most, from down by 9.2% in March, to only down by 5.4% now, a gain of 3.8%. Paul now does the best of these five candidates against Clinton in Ohio.

Ohio is not a good place for Clinton to be losing ground. Ohio’s 18 electoral votes can make a huge difference. Many paths for Republican victory require Ohio. And the losses here are quite possibly indicative of similar slippage in other states that haven’t been polled enough lately to see it yet. This is not a happy trend for Team Clinton.

Lets switch to looking nationally. Do we see loss of ground there too?

These changes in the Ohio average directly change the tipping point for two of the five candidates, Paul and Huckabee. Paul moves from being down by 7.6% with the tipping point in Ohio, to only being down 7.0% in Minnesota. Meanwhile Huckabee moves from being down 8.1% with the tipping point in Ohio, to being down 7.8%, with his tipping point still in Ohio.

But lets look again at all five candidates against Clinton over not just this change, but the last few months:

chart-48

Once again lets compare now to three months ago. Remember, the tipping point essentially represents how much national public opinion needs to move to flip the electoral college result. Paul, Huckabee, Christie and Rubio have all improved since March. Only Bush has declined in that timeframe. (Bush is still better than he was six months ago though.)

Also once again, Paul has improved the most against Clinton during that the last three months, going from down 8.8%, to only down 7.0%.

And yes, yes, all five of these candidates are still way behind. But the overall movement seems to be in the Republican’s favor at the moment. If these trends continue, before too long we may have an actual race on our hands instead of a Clinton blowout!

As I noted in the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, the real media bias is toward having an exciting race, and while I’m not “the media” I am not immune to this bias… a closer race is a more fun race to watch… so I’ll always be rooting for whoever is behind. :-)

Seriously though, when I posted my first analysis of the 2016 race on this site in November, I mentioned that we should expect tightening, and that Clinton would most likely never again look as good as she did then. The general public had barely heard of most of the non-Clinton candidates, she had come off her Secretary of State stint with fairly high approval ratings, and the campaign against her had yet to start in earnest… and she had been keeping quiet, so fewer opportunities for her to make mistakes too.

As things get in to gear, all of those things change. We’ve just seen the very beginnings of this, and already there is a visible impact in Clinton’s lead. Her lead is still a healthy one, but we’re definitely seeing the signs of the battle starting to be engaged.

513 days to go.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post.