Abulsme.com: Thursday, November 6th, 2014

@abulsme tweets from 2014-11-05 (UTC)

01:56:38 OK, I added a page to compare the best polled cands in a specific state. http://t.co/NHRlCSI95Y That was the last thing on my to do list!
01:57:52 Next up, a scan for any new polls since the last time I did a sweep, then writing up a few introductory blog posts. http://t.co/484fZNqor5
01:58:33 But firstвЂ¦ I need to finish my ballot for THIS year’s electionвЂ¦ Two hours until polls close here. VOTE FOR SAM! :-)
02:42:18 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 02:41:54 I think I'm slowly getting more and more boring. Is this what getting older feels like
02:42:38 .@AmyNotAmy Yes. in reply to AmyNotAmy
03:25:27 Alex and I just got home from dropping off the ballots for @Scatterbrandy, @AmyNotAmy and me. Voting done! Woo!
03:42:22 Aw shucks, looks like we're not going to have o have an Independant deciding who wins the Senate. :-)
03:42:47 Retweeted @nycjim 03:41:52 Latest update from #LegoSenate: GOP’s magic number is down to 1. http://t.co/ox5X1jHFcz via @mashable http://t.co/6zD1DepbDm
03:50:04 As I tweeted Sunday, in 2012 the poll bias in almost all states was to make races look closer than they really were. Looks that way again.
03:51:36 My post on those 2012 pollsвЂ¦ http://t.co/Lem21WLDHM As I said there, the incentives for this kind of bias make sense.
03:52:08 Will of course have to wait for final numbers everywhere to see if this actually repeats that pattern or not.
03:53:15 Retweeted @MetricButtload 02:54:17 Charlie Crist just registered as a Whig.
04:07:04 Retweeted @mkraju 04:06:47 Dems have to run the table to hold majority: NC, VA, Iowa, Louisiana and Alaska. Highly unlikely.
04:09:28 .@mkraju Dem majority has been clearly in the вЂњunlikelyвЂќ category for quite awhile now. But already low chance vanishing quickly to zeroвЂ¦ in reply to mkraju
04:12:44 Retweeted @NateSilver538 04:10:02 99%. http://t.co/9zPQuOUPnJ
04:19:24 Retweeted @JohnEkdahl 04:18:22 8PM: Looks good for GOP
9:30PM: Oops, no wave.
11:00PM: HOLY SHIT WHAT’S HAPPENING
04:24:07 Retweeted @MysteryPollster 04:23:55 Just a matter of time RT @NateSilver538: GOP needs just ONE of LA, NC, IA, AK, VA to clinch. http://t.co/fLyJkYwBnu
04:25:44 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 04:25:33 Game over. GOP majority.
04:27:02 Retweeted @passantino 04:26:49 59 minutes before AP https://t.co/WOWzoPn31A
04:27:50 Retweeted @nickconfessore 04:27:00 Will be interested in thots from @UpshotNYT and elsewhere why so many races seemed so close (to both sides) but tilted so consistently.
04:28:48 Retweeted @tapbot_paul 04:28:35 Gridlock FTW!
04:31:17 Retweeted @Taniel 04:30:30 The GOP has swept all the close races tonight. But #NCSen is the first big race they've won where they were slightly behind in the average.
04:45:08 Being distracted from my ’16 stuff by ’14. Collecting data to try to look to see if the 2012 bias pattern was repeated, or just +D bias.
05:01:27 Two problems with the analysis I want to do. 1st, RCP only has avgs for 18 of the 36 Senate races. 2nd, still have to wait for final % nums.
05:02:31 Retweeted @BenjySarlin 05:01:36 #skewed RT @pbump: In contested Senate races with at least 60% reporting, GOP outperformed polls by 4.7 pts on avg http://t.co/wNmOH9VDAt
05:07:07 .@BenjySarlin @pbump I was working on that graph! Looks diff than bias pattern in ’12 where bias was to closeness. http://t.co/Lem21WLDHM in reply to BenjySarlin
05:19:07 Reading – Senate Polls Had A Significant Democratic Skew (@NateSilver538) http://t.co/DkMD7dwhgg
05:24:09 Retweeted @SeanTrende 05:19:00 If ABC's projection is correct, GOP gets largest House majority since 1928. Hard not to call this a wave.
05:24:26 Retweeted @EdMorrissey 05:21:42 Been calling this one all day RT @MelissaTweets: RT @AnnCoulter: Dana Bash on MSNBC saying Maine Sen. Angus King is willing to caucus w/GOP.
05:43:38 Retweeted @seanmdav 05:42:51 Just two months ago, @SamWangPHD said Dems were 90% favorites to keep the Senate. https://t.co/DKABnfOdMA
05:44:13 .@seanmdav @SamWangPhD @Heminator Read again. Tweet says 65% for Election Day. in reply to seanmdav
05:47:57 Retweeted @NateSilver538 05:41:22 Bias not quite as bad in gov polls. Still — polls overestimated Democrats by 2 points and miscalled several races: http://t.co/kdh8GoKcPc
06:46:42 Finished my scan for new ’16 Pres polls. Tons of polls since I last looked 4 days ago, but everybody busy with ’14. Nothing new for ’16. :-(
07:07:03 Retweeted @samsteinhp 07:06:23 Fantastic HUFFPOST splash right now http://t.co/BDKstwlool
10:53:46 Trying to finish writing my posts for my election stuff, but Alex has a fever and is having trouble sleeping. So hanging with him for a bit.
11:39:37 Alex up & down and up & down. Fever. Congested. Coughing. Looks like I’ll be up all night. May WFH and make it a half day to help with him.
17:00:45 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Launching 2016 Coverage http://t.co/EtOqaHEkL2
18:01:01 [Abulpost] Electoral College: A Tour of the 2016 Site http://t.co/sm1XNVAAmW
19:00:25 [Abulpost] Electoral College: 2016 Coverage FAQ http://t.co/tneJmx8cUl
20:00:52 [Abulpost] Electoral College: The Race Begins http://t.co/e7yP557sqi
20:47:37 Retweeted @dceiver 20:46:50 What I want Obama to say right now, is "Fuck it, y'all, we're minting the trillion dollar platinum coin!"

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