- Reading – From India, Proof That a Trip to Mars Doesn’t Have to Break the Bank (Saritha Rai) http://t.co/NEPc4v33hx 00:46:55
- Reading – Mozilla Plans to Sell Ads in Firefox Browser (John Gruber) http://t.co/OfniD7oKQH 00:55:00
- My fitbit #Fitstats for 2/17/2014: 8,774 steps and 6.5 km traveled. http://t.co/yvGq0OoOT9 01:01:07
- Reading – Rand Paul: We need вЂa new Republican Party’ — not small changes (Aaron Blake) http://t.co/0dGGVhR4AS 01:04:40
- Reading – Should we fear the worst? (Macaro/Baggini) http://t.co/xWwLWYV04v 01:09:44
- Not quite how it was presented… Reading – Lost in desert at four years old … but for how long? (OpenNewsroom) http://t.co/WfKvQUc3Dy 01:13:31
- Reading – 5 Years Later, What Did The ARRA Achieve? (Lance Roberts) http://t.co/pkbNWBaHOB 01:17:25
- Reading – Snowden Documents Reveal Covert Surveillance and Pressure Tactics Aimed at WikiLeaks (Greenwald/Gallagher) https://t.co/XFtrwK6E2m 08:29:34
- More 2016 poll stuff. Just finished data entry on the 1996 elections. This means I have now switched everything to 5 poll averages. 16:40:43
- In places where there are not enough real polls on current catalogs I backfill with actual elections. Five is my target, so here I am! :-) 16:41:51
- I’ve used 5 poll averages in the last couple elections, and it has seemed to do fine. In the past I haven’t backfilled more than 2 elex tho. 16:42:36
- This gives a better “background” for unpolled states though, although one could argue that 5 elex back is a very long time (20 years). 16:43:20
- It also means 3 Dem victories and 2 Rep victories. If I wanted to be “even” I could choose 4, 8 or 10 elex. But I’ve done 5 poll avg, so… 16:47:58
- Anyway, this gives an interesting baseline: the 5 poll avg using just last 5 elex, no new polls on 2016 candidates: http://t.co/kVzlx0sf6x 16:49:16
- “Close” states (under 5% margin in 5 elex avg) end up as Missouri, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Nevada. http://t.co/kVzlx0sf6x 16:50:30
- Dem’s have a slight advantage, with a 1.66% “tipping point” in Ohio. Range goes from 24 EV Rep win to 146 EV Dem win as close states swing. 16:52:03
- Of course, we already do have some very limited polling on specific candidate pairings for 2016 that moves that. Ex: http://t.co/K5o22cJeW9 16:55:41
- We are along way from having enough data to even be too meaningful as a snapshot, let alone a prediction though & I know I am missing polls. 16:56:48
- But I am happy to slowly but surely be getting my infrastructure in place to track this stuff. I still have a long to do list though. 16:58:10
- Getting 2 actually having enough historical data to do five poll avg in all states (inc elex) is a milestone though. I’m happy about it. :-) 16:59:13
- Important -> Reading – Does Anyone Else Realize The Federal Debt Ceiling Was ELIMINATED? (Stan Collender) http://t.co/f3VnR1F6fc 18:11:00
- Reading – How Much Is Hillary Clinton Like Claire Underwood? (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/vf2B03NCT9 19:27:59
- Watching – Jimmy Fallon Kicks Off The Tonight Show (The Tonight Show) http://t.co/FccbyMR033 20:44:37
- Reading – “Enhanced Interrogation” In North Korea (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/7jzTS8WHXo 22:00:29
- RT @jamesgrime: The Graph of Khan http://t.co/JiPM6rELZi 22:05:43
- Reading – Advertisers Not Thrilled With Apple’s Practice Of Protecting Its Users’ Data (Darrell Etherington) http://t.co/3GjSbFf4T3 22:41:11